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< 1-17 >CONNECT Europe/Brazil Programme, Seminar of WayCarbon, Belo Horizonte, 21 July, 2015
Prof. Dr. Ivan Ivanov,
Head o...
< 2-17 >
Introduction
As background – general comparative analysis
of the impact of Europe and separate Bulgaria,
Brazil a...
< 3-17 >
The global reality
CONNECT Europe/Brazil Programme, Seminar of WayCarbon, Belo Horizonte, 21 July,
2015general
To...
< 4-17 >
Our survey for
transposition of
Directive 2001/80/EC
in Bulgaria (LCP-
TPP>50MW) shows
increased trend
after 2000...
< 5-17 >CONNECT Europe/Brazil Programme, Seminar of WayCarbon, Belo Horizonte, 21 July, 2015
Global energy consumption, GH...
< 6-17 >CONNECT Europe/Brazil Programme, Seminar of WayCarbon, Belo Horizonte, 21 July, 2015
Global energy consumption, GH...
< 7-17 >CONNECT Europe/Brazil Programme, Seminar of WayCarbon, Belo Horizonte, 21 July, 2015
Global energy consumption, GH...
< 8-17 >CONNECT Europe/Brazil Programme, Seminar of WayCarbon, Belo Horizonte, 21 July, 2015
Global energy consumption, GH...
< 9-17 >
CONNECT Europe/Brazil Programme, Seminar of WayCarbon, Belo Horizonte, 21 July, 2015
Global energy consumption, G...
< 10-17 >CONNECT Europe/Brazil Programme, Seminar of WayCarbon, Belo Horizonte, 21 July, 2015
Rational approach for GHG’ r...
< 11-17 >CONNECT Europe/Brazil Programme, Seminar of WayCarbon, Belo Horizonte, 21 July, 2015
Action-2
Application of SWOT...
< 12-17 >CONNECT Europe/Brazil Programme, Seminar of WayCarbon, Belo Horizonte, 21 July, 2015
Action-3
Rational approach f...
< 13-17 >CONNECT Europe/Brazil Programme, Seminar of WayCarbon, Belo Horizonte, 21 July, 2015
Action-4
Rational approach f...
< 14-17 >CONNECT Europe/Brazil Programme, Seminar of WayCarbon, Belo Horizonte, 21 July, 2015
Action-5
Rational approach f...
< 15-17 >CONNECT Europe/Brazil Programme, Seminar of WayCarbon, Belo Horizonte, 21 July, 2015
Action-6
Rational approach f...
< 16-17 >CONNECT Europe/Brazil Programme, Seminar of WayCarbon, Belo Horizonte, 21 July, 2015
In conclusion
These actions ...
< 17-17 >
Thank you
for the attention
Contact:
Prof. Dr. Ivan Ivanov
Head of SE&EL - Safety and Environmental & Engineerin...
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Mitigação das mudanças climáticas e considerações sobre o setor elétrico - Ivan Ivanov (Universidade Tec. de Sofia)

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Dr. Ivan Ivanov, Universidade Técnica de Sofia (Bulgária), trata dos desafios energéticos das mudanças climáticas, fazendo considerações sobre a mitigação de emissões no setor de energia e compartlihando a experiência européia.

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Mitigação das mudanças climáticas e considerações sobre o setor elétrico - Ivan Ivanov (Universidade Tec. de Sofia)

  1. 1. < 1-17 >CONNECT Europe/Brazil Programme, Seminar of WayCarbon, Belo Horizonte, 21 July, 2015 Prof. Dr. Ivan Ivanov, Head of Safety and Environmental & Engineering Laboratory Technical University of Sofia, Bulgaria
  2. 2. < 2-17 > Introduction As background – general comparative analysis of the impact of Europe and separate Bulgaria, Brazil and separate Minas Gerais CONNECT Europe/Brazil Programme, Seminar of WayCarbon, Belo Horizonte, 21 July, 2015general This short presentation aims to show only a sketch of some problems of climate change and my understanding for a rational approach for their mitigation, in particular for energy sector, … 15 minutes not allow details.
  3. 3. < 3-17 > The global reality CONNECT Europe/Brazil Programme, Seminar of WayCarbon, Belo Horizonte, 21 July, 2015general Today’s world is a very different place for live from the past. For instance for last 500 years the world’s population has increased about 15 times. And it has been industrialized without regard for need to protect and respect nature. And today only consumption of energy fuels causes about 150 million tones of CO2 into the atmosphere every day. The whole world is affected by global warming. It doesn’t matter where are CO2 emissions into the atmosphere, the earth’s rotation and the uneven heating of the atmosphere by the sun ensure that the CO2 is distributed randomly. That’s why the target in UN climate negotiations is limiting the rise in average global temperature to 2°C above pre-industrial levels.
  4. 4. < 4-17 > Our survey for transposition of Directive 2001/80/EC in Bulgaria (LCP- TPP>50MW) shows increased trend after 2000 of the energy composition. CONNECT Europe/Brazil Programme, Seminar of WayCarbon, Belo Horizonte, 21 July, 2015 Global energy consumption and examples for Europe, Bulgaria and Brazil Energy consumption in EU Source Number of plants Installed capacity (MW) % Total Hydro 633 73,678 72.1% Gas 101 10,798 10.6% Oil 568 4,446 4.4% Biomass 269 3,693 3.6% Nuclear 2 2,007 2% Coal 7 1,415 1.4% Wind 15 237 0.2% Total 1,595 96,294 94.3% Imports 5,850 5.7% Electricity generation in Brazil, 2007 Total coal, oil and gas in Brazil are only 16 %, but in Europe – 79 %
  5. 5. < 5-17 >CONNECT Europe/Brazil Programme, Seminar of WayCarbon, Belo Horizonte, 21 July, 2015 Global energy consumption, GHG and more for Europe….. Primary Energy Consumption In the basis of the definition of EU’ targets are:  on the one hand – the needs and energy consumption but not only of the “big players” – Germany, France, UK, Italy….and all 27  on the other hand – their share in the GHGs production - for 2010 ⇒ One of the most important challenges of the European Union now in the way to the sustainable development is the climate changes, and thence the goal is to find most rationale decision of the European "20-20-20" targets. GHGs emissions 2010, base year 1990 - Index (1990 = 100)
  6. 6. < 6-17 >CONNECT Europe/Brazil Programme, Seminar of WayCarbon, Belo Horizonte, 21 July, 2015 Global energy consumption, GHG and more for Bulgaria and Brazil….. Some indicators for comparison in energy sector (approximately – data for different years after 2000) No. Indicators Bulgaria Brazil times to BG 1 Territory [km2 ] 110,994 8,515,767 76.7 2 Population 7,364,570 202,768,562 27.5 3 GDP /PPP (nominal) [$ per capita] 17,869 (8,037) 15,941 (11,281) 0.9 (1.4) 4 Installed capacity [MW] 12,700 121,000 9,5 5 Generation of electricity [TWh] 44 465 10.6 6 Installed nuclear capacity [MW] 1,926 1,884 0.98 7 Share of nuclear energy [%] 31.8 2.9 0.09 8 Share of renewable energy [%] 9.8 82 (77% hydroelectric) 8.4 9 Average electricity use [MWh per capita/year] 4.94 2.17 0.46 10 CO2-emission [Mt/year] 25.1 388 15.5 11 CO2-emission [Mt/MWh] 0.50 0.83 1.66 12 CO2-emission [t per capita/year] 3.4 1.91 0.56 Compared with Bulgaria the installed capacity and generation of electricity are 10 times more, but it is not so much taking into account the general indicators in the table. In the same time 15.5 times CO2-emission more, although the hydroelectricity generation over 80% of electricity demands of Brazil. Significant reason for the specific CO2 of Brazil compared with Bulgaria is almost the same capacity, but 10 times less share of nuclear energy (data of IAEA, 2015-04-30) with “zero” CO2 emission. Brazil is the world's fifth largest country, both by geographical area and by population, the 10th largest energy consumer in the world and the largest in South America. Its installed capacity is comparable to that of Italy and UK, but with a much larger transmission network.
  7. 7. < 7-17 >CONNECT Europe/Brazil Programme, Seminar of WayCarbon, Belo Horizonte, 21 July, 2015 Global energy consumption, GHG and more for Minas Gerais ….. As one actual publication in this field could be referred here: Xavier et al.: Energy scenarios for the Minas Gerais State in Brazil: an integrated modeling exercise using System Dynamics, Energy, Sustainability and Society 2013 3:17. The Brazilian and Minas Gerais state energy mix are representatively. The developed two scenarios: BAU (business-as-usual), with no changes in the energy profile of the state and RIC (reduction of carbon intensity) as a key goal /with the same rates of economic growth and energy demand but with stimulation of energy efficiency policies and use of renewable energy/ shown the installed capacity in Minas Gerais until 2030, but ⇒
  8. 8. < 8-17 >CONNECT Europe/Brazil Programme, Seminar of WayCarbon, Belo Horizonte, 21 July, 2015 Global energy consumption, GHG and more for Minas Gerais ….. taking into account very big biomass potential of Brazil it seems not enough presented in the RIC, although the biomass is underlined reported in the Memorandum item according to UNFCCC Guidelines. On other hand for comparison the attention in Europe: the 20% RES target for 2020 established in the Directive 2009/28/EC on the promotion of renewable energy. Share of RES in energy consumption’2010/ base the use 6% of RES in the EU (1996)
  9. 9. < 9-17 > CONNECT Europe/Brazil Programme, Seminar of WayCarbon, Belo Horizonte, 21 July, 2015 Global energy consumption, GHG and more for Minas Gerais ….. the RIC seems should be more ambitious than about 6 % difference in 2020. Again as comparison with Europe: a reduction GHGs emissions of at least 20% below 1990 levels, as target for 2020 and GHG emissions in Minas Gerais in the BAU and RIC scenarios, That’s why could be applied ⇒
  10. 10. < 10-17 >CONNECT Europe/Brazil Programme, Seminar of WayCarbon, Belo Horizonte, 21 July, 2015 Rational approach for GHG’ reduction and climate changes’ mitigation, as example for application in Brazil / Minas Gerais ….. Action-1 Application of Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and Integrated Pollution Prevention and Control (IPPC) procedures and urgently zoning and planning for “cap & trade” principle for emissions. The EU Emissions Trading System (EU-ETS) could be applied on Brazil or Minas Gerais’ level or more differentiated in each of zone (area or municipality) - there is a "cap", or limit on the total amount of GHGs that can be and it allows they can sell to or buy from one another as needed. The effect of EU-ETS: For year the CO2 emissions dropped by 3% to 7.5 tones per capita.
  11. 11. < 11-17 >CONNECT Europe/Brazil Programme, Seminar of WayCarbon, Belo Horizonte, 21 July, 2015 Action-2 Application of SWOT analysis as technique of the strategic management, but not ordinary and Extended SWOT analysis for the identification of the influences of every plant. Rational approach for GHG’ reduction and climate changes’ mitigation, as example for application in Brazil / Minas Gerais …..
  12. 12. < 12-17 >CONNECT Europe/Brazil Programme, Seminar of WayCarbon, Belo Horizonte, 21 July, 2015 Action-3 Rational approach for GHG’ reduction and climate changes’ mitigation, as example for application in Brazil / Minas Gerais ….. Application of new CCS (Carbon Capture and Storage – technologies) For Brazil’s respectively Minas Gerais especially in the coal energy sector could be listed: • Pre-combustion technology - IGCC (Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle) • Oxyfuel Combustion • Post-combustion Technology - CFBC (Circulating Fluidized Bed Combustion) • End of pipe technology.
  13. 13. < 13-17 >CONNECT Europe/Brazil Programme, Seminar of WayCarbon, Belo Horizonte, 21 July, 2015 Action-4 Rational approach for GHG’ reduction and climate changes’ mitigation, as example for application in Brazil / Minas Gerais ….. for operational safety of the plants and protection of the employees, public and environment from the harmful industrial effects. Application of ALARA Principle (As Low As Reasonably Achievable)
  14. 14. < 14-17 >CONNECT Europe/Brazil Programme, Seminar of WayCarbon, Belo Horizonte, 21 July, 2015 Action-5 Rational approach for GHG’ reduction and climate changes’ mitigation, as example for application in Brazil / Minas Gerais ….. To be defined and prosecuted Brazil’s targets, as model for instance similar of the European "20-20-20" targets to be met by 2020, namely:  A reduction GHGs emissions of at least 20% below 1990 levels  20% of Brazil energy consumption (outside hydro energy) to come from other renewable resources  20% reduction in primary energy use compared with projected levels, to be achieved by improving energy efficiency.
  15. 15. < 15-17 >CONNECT Europe/Brazil Programme, Seminar of WayCarbon, Belo Horizonte, 21 July, 2015 Action-6 Rational approach for GHG’ reduction and climate changes’ mitigation, as example for application in Brazil / Minas Gerais ….. At last but not least place: Preparing of proposals and implementation of joint projects with European partners in H2020, programs of the Brazil government, etc. For Bulgarian partner you can rely on the Technical University of Sofia (Safety and Environmental & Engineering Laboratory) and/or IVECOL-CONSULT Ltd.
  16. 16. < 16-17 >CONNECT Europe/Brazil Programme, Seminar of WayCarbon, Belo Horizonte, 21 July, 2015 In conclusion These actions presented to your attention could be considered and accepted from authorities, municipalities and companies in Brazil, in particular in Minas Gerais, as reasonable recommendations and to be taken relevant measures and activities for possible input for the Global Warming Mitigation and achieve of local safe and eco-friendly sustainable development.
  17. 17. < 17-17 > Thank you for the attention Contact: Prof. Dr. Ivan Ivanov Head of SE&EL - Safety and Environmental & Engineering Laboratory Technical University of Sofia, Electrical Power Department 1000 Sofia, 8 “Kl. Ohridski” Blvd., Block 12, BULGARIA and CEO of IVECOL-CONSULT Ltd. 1618 Sofia, P. O. Box 273 Tel. /Fax (+359 2) 488-1069 , 965-2043 E-mails: i.vi@abv.bg and ivec@tu-sofia.bg ? CONNECT Europe/Brazil Programme, Seminar of WayCarbon, Belo Horizonte, 21 July, 2015

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