How to estimate future forest cover in a watershed

future land cover projections ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

why land cover is important to watersheds ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

link between forest cover and stream health ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

steps for estimating future land cover ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

GIS data needs for future land cover analysis ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

assumptions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

No buildings. Parcels not selected Parcels intersect with buildings so they are selected as “developed” parcels Step 1: identify developed and undeveloped parcels

Step 2: calculate the area of each zoning category for undeveloped land

Step 3: identify and subtract protected land from undeveloped land for each zoning category ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Step 3: results buildable land by zoning category

Step 4: multiply the remaining buildable land in each zoning category by the corresponding land cover coefficients ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

impervious cover coefficients vary by land use Source: Cappiella and Brown (2001) Land use ICC Agriculture .019 Open urban land .086 2 acre lot residential .106 1 acre lot residential .143 ½ acre lot residential .212 ¼ acre lot residential .278 1/8 acre lot residential .326 Townhomes .409 Multifamily residential .444 Institutional .344 Light industrial .534 Commercial .722

factors affecting forest cover coefficients ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

forest conservation regulations influence forest cover coefficients Photo courtesy of Harford County DPW Photo courtesy of Randall Arendt Forest cover coefficient = .057 Forest cover coefficient = .40

options for deriving forest cover coefficients ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Zoning Category Buildable Area (acres) Forest Cover Coefficient Future Forest Cover on Buildable land (acres) Agriculture 765 .168 128.5 Open Urban Land 50 .268 13.4 LDR 732 .321 235.0 MDR 645 .248 160.0 HDR 220 .203 44.7 Institutional 88 .134 11.8 Commercial 130 .067 8.7 Total 2,630 602.1

Step 5: calculate the area of each land cover type for developed land and protected land ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

sources of land cover data ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

common scale issue: Map B contains alot more detail on forest cover while Map A is fairly generalized B A

Step 6: sum future land cover on buildable, developed and protected land ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],+

Step 6: results Future land cover in the watershed =

you’ve got results: now what? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

techniques to maintain or increase forest cover ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

additional resources ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

group exercise: estimating future forest cover in the Green River Watershed ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

How to estimate future forest cover in a watershed

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