More Related Content Similar to Open Gaming Alliance @ CES VR Fest 2016 (20) Open Gaming Alliance @ CES VR Fest 20162. The Open Gaming Alliance (OGA) is a non-profit trade association focused on the
supporting the business of the games industry ecosystem.
• Be of service to developers and the industry
• Respond to our members’ needs
• Promote developers’ contribution to the economy and society
• Analyze and report on the industry’s growth, strength and vitality
• Support opportunities for entrepreneurs and innovators
• Provide positive leadership and embrace diversity of thought, gender, religion, and ethnicity
OGA’s Mission
OGA’s Commitment to the Industry
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New OGA Members in 2015 (not all announced yet)
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OGA Special Interest Groups (SIGs)
• Research SIG
• VR/AR SIG
• eSports SIG
• Software SIG
• Security SIG
• Indie SIG
• Diversity SIG
• Serious Games SIG
• Education SIG
• Monetization SIG
• Cloud Gaming SIG
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VR Development has Changed
1980s-2000s
• Tools very expensive or custom built
• Specialized high-end systems
• Cost millions of dollars to build
• Applications: Training, Experimental
Nicole Stenger, 1992
2016
• Indies developers are leading the charge on
content = 62% are indies
• Unity and Unreal democratized market
• 8%+ of developers doing VR games
• Applications: Games and Film & Enterprise
Playful Corp. – Lucky’s Tale
Source: M2 Advisory Group
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What We Know About VR
Key Players:
• Oculus Rift (VR - Facebook) – Q1 2016 $599
• Samsung Gear VR, Sony Morpheus – Q1 2016
• Razer OSVR, Google Cardboard, Magic Leap, Envelop VR (Uber Games spin off startup), Microsoft HoloLens,
Valve & HTC VR (aka Steam VR), Starbreeze, GearVR, Vuzix (Intel invests $25m), Immersion, Fove.
Considerations:
• Expect slow volume ramp time
- Comparison: Consoles in full swing typically sell between ~9-15m annually on average when fully ramped
• Estimated *entry* Price Points of HMD: ~$350-$650
• Risk Factors:
- Cost of produce the content
- High barrier to entry for what is roughly mainstream to high end.
- Oculus Recommended Specs for the full Rift experience: ($800 - $1000 not including monitor)
- NVIDIA GTX 970 / AMD 290 equivalent or greater (starts at $350)
- Intel i5-4590 equivalent or greater
- 8GB+ RAM
- Compatible HDMI 1.3 video output
- 2x USB 3.0 ports
- Windows 7 SP1 or newer
2/2/2016 Open Gaming Alliance Confidential - For OGA members only
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2015-2016 Projections
• 2016: 38 million VR headsets will be sold –
This is very high for year 1 sales
• 2016: VR/AR market $5 billion –
Again, high for year 1 of sales
• Q4 2014 & 2015: $1B in M&A (2015 = $250M)
This is actual
Market Size of VR and AR – Who Knows?
Analyst are aggressive on projections, a little too optimistic:
2020: Total VR & AR Market = $150 Billion
This is very aggressive for 4 year growth
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State of Gaming – What We DO Know
1. PC Gaming Software growth 12% in 2014 > 13% for CY 2015!!! Great Year for PC Gaming!
2. Biggest Games
CoD BO III, Newly Released: Fallout 4, Battlefront, CoD BO III, etc. Existing: LoL, Dota 2, Hearthstone,
Minecraft
Big Games continue to drive sell up & increased frequency to refresh
3. VR, & AR (HMD = Head Mounted Display)
Potential for additional opportunities in sell up & refresh
4. Microsoft
Windows 10, & DirectX 12 – now on your Xbox One!? Universal Apps
5. Valve’s Steam OS, Machine, & Controller – launches!
6. GDC 2016
Expect focus to be around VR
7. eSports: Popularity hits a minimum of ~150+m viewers
8. 4K (UHD) display prices continue to drop
1080p is the new 720p
9. Smart Toys Growing
- Disney Infinity 3.0
2/2/2016 Open Gaming Alliance Confidential - For OGA members only
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Gaming Demographics
PC Gaming Install Base: Estimates 711 Million ‘Active Users’ from an estimated ~1.2+ Billion PC Gaming TAM
CY 2014 Open Gaming Alliance Confidential - For OGA members only
Enthusiast
Mainstream
Entry (Casual – Web)
36m
250m
425m
3+
Years
5+
Years
7+
Years
PC Refresh &
Upgrade Cycle
Sources: Open Gaming Alliance Pinnacle Report, DFC, JPR, IDC, ISV Discussions, Public Domain PR Releases, and Intel Est.
Recognize that there’s no
perfect system. Gamer
habits, spending, time
spent highly variable.
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Hardware
OGA Estimates - PC Gaming Hardware Market
•Gaming Hardware Market = $86.1B
• How do we get this #?
- Total HW Market = $631 Billion.
- Combination of public records/filings vetted against private and other sources.
- Removing all OEM Consumer PCs, & Apple still nets $31.1B directly coming from Gaming Hardware.
• Key Segments
1. OEM PC sales for gaming (Attribution less than the OGA est) = $50B
2. OEM Gaming Branded(“Boutique”) PCs for Gaming = $5.5B
3. Apple = 22mu 2014 OSX devices w/25% gamer attribution = $5B
4. DIY AIB/Components = $10B
5. DIY/MOBO = $1.5B
6. Displays = attributed at $8.5B
7. Audio = attributed at $2B
8. Peripherals = $3.6B
- NOTE: Subject to change when more accurate data becomes available
2/2/2016 Open Gaming Alliance Confidential - For OGA members only
Sources: Open Gaming Alliance Pinnacle Report, Public Domain & Filings
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2007 to 2018
The OGA view of the transition to F2P & Digital Distribution
• Business models: Dominance of F2P/Freemium the #1 Driver due to low cost/barriers to entry
- Over 56% of PC Gaming SW Revs coming from APAC region
2/2/2016 Open Gaming Alliance Confidential - For OGA members only
Sources: Open Gaming Alliance (DFC) Pinnacle Report
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We Will Need Diversity
Diversity of: Development, Content, Applications, Consumers
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Partnership
• Provide collaboration across markets
• Support standardization for development and consumer adoption
• Build unified initiatives that support growth of ecosystem
OGA & ITA PARTNERSHIP
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Wanda Meloni
Executive Director, OGA
wanda@m2research.com
Open Gaming Alliance – Thank You