prentation held for the STOA forum of the Europese parliament on the importnace of wide early warning and RDI intelligence for Europe

1. Scanning for emerging science and
technology issues
Project funded under the Socio-
economic Sciences and Humanities
[Experiences with searching for
emerging S&T issues ,
tools and approaches
Presentation for STOA
Victor van Rij
7-april-2011
The SESTI project is funded under the European FP7 and researches the application of weak
signals and emerging issues for improving the anticipatory intelligence of the European
Commission and the EU Member States on future developments and issues

2. Scanning for emerging science and
technology issues
Project funded under the Socio-
economic Sciences and Humanities
2
Objectives of the SESTI project
• Researching the added value of early warning
signal scanning to identify emerging issues
• Assessing the pro’s and con’s of several scanning
methods
• Identifying ways to connect scanning to the policy
community
SESTI Presentation for STOA 7 april 2011

3. Scanning for emerging science and
technology issues
Project funded under the Socio-
economic Sciences and Humanities
3
Media
Voters
Advisory boards
Planning agencies
Info and Issues
Lobbyists
Decisions for the
Future
SESTI Presentation for STOA 7 april 2011

4. Scanning for emerging science and
technology issues
Project funded under the Socio-
economic Sciences and Humanities
4
Why should we look for emerging
issues?
• Much info and many issues are biased by their bringers, even scientific advice
is biased by disciplinary thinking
• Media got a good nose for bad news and incidents, they scan the world for
this (allthough there are some good exceptions)
• Most issues coming to the policy makers have a short term character
• While good governing needs the capacity to foresee and to anticipate
• Luckily politicians and policymakers have a good intuition for what the future
may bring, but the knowledge they can use for this , is limited to their sources
SESTI Presentation for STOA 7 april 2011

5. Scanning for emerging science and
technology issues
Project funded under the Socio-
economic Sciences and Humanities
5
SESTI project
• Are there ways to improof the information basis
to identify the most important future issues that
need policy attention today?
• Are there early warning (weak) signals that can be
used to identify them?
• If so where and how to find them and how to use
them to feed them into the policymakers agenda?
SESTI Presentation for STOA 7 april 2011

6. Scanning for emerging science and
technology issues
Project funded under the Socio-
economic Sciences and Humanities
6
Definition and criteria emerging issue
Emerging issues are storylines (Future Narratives) with:
• High impact (on society, economy, ecology and the domain)
• Plausible storyline (including factual basis –reliable sources )
• Novelty (is the issue described really new for the policy makers)
• Emotional aspects and critical aspects (does the issue appeal or
concern emotional and or ethical legal aspects)
• Interests at stake (commonalities and or conflicts)
• Changeability (Can the story or its impact be altered by human action)
• Policy relevance (does the issue relate to present day decision
making and action and on different levels)
SESTI Presentation for STOA 7 april 2011

7. Scanning for emerging science and
technology issues
Project funded under the Socio-
economic Sciences and Humanities
7
Sources and tools for scanning
Non participative / (digital) written sources
• Systematic manual scanning (internet –search engines)
• Literature study
• Text mining
Participative / stakeholders & experts
• Survey
• Wiki
• Blogs/linked In /and others like Facebook
• Twitter
• Workhops etc
SESTI Presentation for STOA 7 april 2011

8. Scanning for emerging science and
technology issues
Project funded under the Socio-
economic Sciences and Humanities
8
Systematic Internet scanning
• Internet Search on internet using search engines
provided by : google / bing
• Google selects all pages (texts & vids) with the
“search string”
• sorts the pages that are most connected/central
Needed
• Qualified scanners (fast interpretation)
• Frame of reference (coordinates/for which
domain does the scan take place/criteria)
• Intelligent questions
• Workhops
SESTI Presentation for STOA 7 april 2011

9. Scanning for emerging science and
technology issues
Project funded under the Socio-
economic Sciences and Humanities
9
SESTI-manual scanning
SESTI Presentation for STOA 7 april 2011

10. The principles of Issue / Wild card Centered Scanning
= Primary signal (full or partial future issue description)
= Affirmative Secondary signal
= Not affirmative Secondary signal
= Expected affirmative signal not showing up
= Analysis of Primary signal (leading to indication of
Secondary signals to watch for)
B Emerging issue B
Past Present Future

11. The principles of Issue / Wild card Centered Scanning
= Primary signal (full or partial future issue or wild card description)
= Affirmative Secondary signal
= Not affirmative Secondary signal
= Expected affirmative signal not showing up
= Analysis of Primary signal (leading to indication of
Secondary signals to watch for)
B Emerging issue B
WC
C
Past Present Future

12. Scanning for emerging science and
technology issues
Project funded under the Socio-
economic Sciences and Humanities
1
2
Primary signal & secondary signals
SESTI Presentation for STOA 7 april 2011

13. ISSUE CENTERED SCANNING
A Emerging issue A
WC
B Emerging issue B
C Hype issue C
Past Present Future

14. Scanning for emerging science and
technology issues
Project funded under the Socio-
economic Sciences and Humanities
1
4
Wiki/Blog/linked In/Twitter
• An invitation is send to experts- stakeholders :
Q what they see as new emerging issues /early
warning signals?
Needed:
• own website (SESTI-wiki – blog ) or account on
existing platform (Linked In , Face book, Twitter)
• Wide variety, qualified willing contribuants
• Open /structured set up
• Analists to interprete data (text mining)
SESTI Presentation for STOA 7 april 2011

15. Scanning for emerging science and
technology issues
Project funded under the Socio-
economic Sciences and Humanities
1
5
SESTI Wiki –for emerging issues
SESTI Presentation for STOA 7 april 2011

16. Scanning for emerging science and
technology issues
Project funded under the Socio-
economic Sciences and Humanities
1
6
SESTI Blog /Linked In Blog/Twitter
SESTI Presentation for STOA 7 april 2011

17. Scanning for emerging science and
technology issues
Project funded under the Socio-
economic Sciences and Humanities
1
7
Experience scanning methods
Tool Reach Observation Coherence Quality Novelty Dialogue
/Source time degree of the check
signal
Manual Very Anytime Large Available high NA
scanning large and small
www
Literature Large Anytime Large Available medium NA
study wwl
Survey Specific One time Small Low, medium NA
limited except
experts
Text Large Runs with Small ?? ? NA
mining preparation Complex
Wiki Specific Dependent Large in theory Available Medium Some
limited on Small in to high
participants practice
Blog Specific Dependent Medium to large Dialogue Medium Open
Linked In limited on to high
etc participants
Twitter Specific All the time Small NA high Twitter
limited continuous
SESTI Presentation for STOA 7 April 2011

18. Scanning for emerging science and
technology issues
Project funded under the Socio-
economic Sciences and Humanities
1
8
Partners
• TNO: Main coordinator
• MinOCW: Scanning (v.vanrij@minocw.nl)
• AIT: Processing of information
• UniMan: In depth analysis
• IPTS: Policy workshops
• MCST: Knowledge dissemination
SESTI Presentation for STOA 7 april 2011

19. Scanning for emerging science and
technology issues
Project funded under the Socio-
economic Sciences and Humanities
Set up of the SESTI project
Focus of this presentation
Further information: www.sesti.info

20. Scanning for emerging science and
technology issues
Project funded under the Socio-
economic Sciences and Humanities
Emerging issue A
Emerging issue C
WC
Emerging issue F
Hype issue D EXPLORATORY SCANNING
Past Present Future