Health, Climate change & WHO - Final donorreport2011
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Health, Climate change & WHO - Final donorreport2011
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Health, Climate change & WHO - Final donorreport2011
- 1. Health, climate change, and WHO Public Health and Environment Department, WHO-Geneva
- 3. What is climate change?
- 4. Temperatures are rising rapidly, following increases in CO 2 emissions and concentrations What is climate change?
- 5. IPCC 2007: 4 th assessment report Temperature increases cannot be explained by natural processes What is climate change?
- 6. Temperatures will rise further IPCC 2007 What is climate change?
- 7. Precipitation will also change, and become more extreme Annual mean precipitation change: 2071 to 2100 compared to 1990. IPCC, 2007 What is climate change?
- 8. Many aspects of weather have changed, and will continue to do so IPCC 2007 What is climate change?
- 9. How does climate change affect health?
- 13. Deaths During Summer Heatwave. Paris Funeral Services (2003) Hurricane Katrina, 2005 Weather-related disasters kill thousands in rich and poor countries How does climate change affect health?
- 14. Diarrhoea is related to temperature and precipitation. In Lima, Peru, diarrhoea increased 8% for every 1 0 C temperature increase. (Checkley et al, Lancet, 2000) Increases in diseases of poverty may be even more important How does climate change affect health?
- 15. Health impacts are unfairly distributed Cumulative emissions of greenhouse gases, to 2002 WHO estimates of per capita mortality from climate change, 2000 Map projections from Patz et al, 2007; WHO, 2009. How does climate change affect health?
- 16. What has been done?
- 18. Awareness raising: High public concern over climate risks to health Globescan poll in 30 countries (UNDP 2007): “ Now I would like to ask you some questions about climate change, which is sometimes referred to as global warming or the greenhouse effect. Which ONE of the following possible impacts most concerns you personally, if any?” What has been done? Awareness raising
- 28. Estimated global annual cost of climate change adaptation (US$ billion): All estimates derived by applying unit costs to WHO estimates of health impacts of climate change Health system strengthening: Estimation of required resources for health adaptation What has been done? Health system strengthening 13.8 - 47.1% 33.4% % health-related 56.8 - 193.4 89.6 Total (all) 26.8 - 29.4 30.0 Total health-related - 6.7 Extreme weather 14.0 7.6 Agriculture, forestry and fisheries 9.0 - 11.0 13.7 Water supply 3.8 - 4.4 2.0 Health sector 2030 2010-2050 Period or time point UNFCCC (2 00 7 prices) World Bank (2005 prices) Sector
- 31. What still needs to be done?
- 37. World Health Organization http:// www.who.int / Health and climate change: http://www.who.int/globalchange/en/ Thanks to the following partners for generous financial and in-kind support: Governments of: Canada; Germany; Italy; Korea; Principality of Monaco; Spain; The United Kingdom; United States of America. The European Union, The Global Environment Facility and the UN Foundation. Thank you for your attention
Hinweis der Redaktion
- Image copyright of Elsevier/the Lancet (to be confirmed)
- August 4, 2011 The three graphs on this chart show changes over the past 1,000 years. The bottom graph shows carbon emissions; the beige band shows emissions due to change in land use (such as deforestation to create agricultural land) and the pink band shows fossil fuel emissions. Fossil fuel emissions have increased dramatically since the Industrial Revolution. The middle, beige graph shows increasing atmospheric CO 2 concentrations in response to increasing carbon emissions. The atmospheric concentration of CO 2 prior to the Industrial Revolution was approximately 280 ppm; the current concentration is nearing 390 ppm. This concentration has not been exceeded during the past 420,000 years and probably not during the past 20 million years. The pink line shows that, although there has been variability, global average surface temperature has paralleled CO 2 concentrations for the past 1,000 years. The global average surface temperature increased approximately 0.7ºC during the past century, with about 0.4ºC of that increase since the 1970s. Temperatures are now changing at 0.18ºC per decade. Surface temperatures now exceed the upper limit of natural (historic) variability. Image from ACIA (2004), reproduced with permission.
- August 4, 2011 Given that records show that climate is changing, the next question is the degree to which human activities are responsible. The top figure shows global mean surface temperature anomalies relative to the period 1901 to 1950, as observed (black line) and from models that included anthropogenic and natural forcings. The thick red curve shows the means from the models and the thin lighter red curves show the individual model results. Vertical grey lines indicate the timing of major volcanic events. The bottom figure shows global mean surface temperature anomalies relative to the period 1901 to 1950, as observed (black line) and from models that included only natural forcings. The thick blue curve shows the means from the models and the thin lighter blue curves show individual model results. Image from IPCC 4 th Assessment Report (2007)
- August 4, 2011 These figures and maps show projected surface temperature changes for the early and late 21st century relative to the period 1980 to 1999. The left panel shows projections for the global average surface temperature for the next century. The central and right panels map projections of these values averaged over the decades 2020 to 2029 (center) and 2090 to 2099 (right). Image from IPCC 4 th Assessment Report (2007)
- August 4, 2011 This map shows in more geographic detail changes in mean precipitation. Image from IPCC 4 th Assessment Report (2007)
- August 4, 2011 This summarizes the conclusions of the IPCC on observed and projected trends in various climatic events. These changes could have significant impacts on human health. An asterisk in column D indicates that formal detection and attribution studies were used, along with expert judgment, to assess the likelihood of a discernible human influence. Source: IPCC 4 th Assessment Report (2007)
- References for all figures given in WHO, 2009. Protecting Health From Climate Change: Connecting Science, Policy and People, World Health Organization, Geneva; page 7. http://www.who.int/globalchange/publications/reports/9789241598880/en/index.html
- Reference: Patz, J.A., Engelberg, D. and Last, J., 2000. The effects of changing weather on public health. Annual Review of Public Health, 21: 271-307.
- References for all figures given in WHO, 2009. Protecting Health From Climate Change: Connecting Science, Policy and People, World Health Organization, Geneva; page 7. http://www.who.int/globalchange/publications/reports/9789241598880/en/index.html Image from CDC Public Health Image Library.
- References: 1) European Environment Agency: http://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/figures/number-of-reported-deaths-and-minimum-and-maximum-temperature-in-paris-during-the-heatwave-in-summer-2003 , based on data from IVS (2003): Impact sanitaire de la vague de chaleur en France survenue en aout 2003, Rapport d'etape, 29 aout 2003. Saint-Maurice, Institut de Veille Sanitaire. 2) NASA: http://www.nasa.gov/images/content/126421main_image_feature_398a_ys_full.jpg
- Reproduced with permission from Elsevier/Lancet. Checkley, W. et al., 2000. Effects of El Nino and ambient temperature on hospital admissions for diarrhoeal diseases in Peruvian children. Lancet, 355(9202): 442-450.
- References: McMichael, A. et al., 2004. Climate Change. In: M. Ezzati, A. Lopez, A. Rodgers and C. Murray (Editors), Comparative Quantification of Health Risks: Global and Regional Burden of Disease due to Selected Major Risk Factors. World Health Organization, Geneva. Patz, J., Gibbs, H., Foley, J., Rogers, J. and Smith, K., 2007. Climate Change and Global Health: Quantifying a Growing Ethical Crisis. Ecohealth, 4: 397–405. WHO, 2009. Protecting Health From Climate Change: Connecting Science, Policy and People, World Health Organization, Geneva.
- Reference: UNDP World Development Report, 2007.
- Reference for NAPA review: Manga, L., Bagayoko, M., Meredith, T. and Neira, M., 2010. Overview of health considerations within National Adaptation Programmes of Action for climate change in least developed countries and small island states. http://www.who.int/phe/Health_in_NAPAs_final.pdf
- References: Haines, A. et al., 2009. Public health benefits of strategies to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions: overview and implications for policy makers. Lancet, 374(9707): 2104-14. Chan, M., 2009. Cutting carbon, improving health. Lancet. 374(9707)
- August 4, 2011
- References: Adaptation Costs: Ebi, K.L., 2008. Adaptation costs for climate change-related cases of diarrhoeal disease, malnutrition, and malaria in 2030. Global Health, 4: 9. World_Bank, 2009. The Cost to Developing Countries of Adapting to Climate Change New Methods and Estimates: The Global Report of the Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change Study, Washington, D.C. Both based on applying unit costs to health impacts in: WHO, 2002. The World Health Report 2002. WHO, Geneva. McMichael, A. et al., 2004. Climate Change. In: M. Ezzati, A. Lopez, A. Rodgers and C. Murray (Editors), Comparative Quantification of Health Risks: Global and Regional Burden of Disease due to Selected Major Risk Factors. World Health Organization, Geneva. Reference for NAPA review: Manga, L., Bagayoko, M., Meredith, T. and Neira, M., 2010. Overview of health considerations within National Adaptation Programmes of Action for climate change in least developed countries and small island states. http://www.who.int/phe/Health_in_NAPAs_final.pdf
- Guy's inputs on "Future countries and regions needs" To date, only few examples exist of costed health sector adaptation plans in the NAPA [1]. One study from Bangladesh estimates an average annual adaptation cost in the health sector, from 2010 to 2050, at US$ 18 million per year [2]. Under the NEEDS project, Ghana estimates additional resources of US$ 350 million by 2020 to adapt to climate change in the health sector [3]. Two global health adaptation cost assessments have been conducted as part of multi-sectoral assessments by the World Bank [4] and the UNFCCC [5]. A third global study focuses on health adaptation costs only [6]. All of these studies include diarrheal diseases, malaria and malnutrition. The cost estimates of these studies are compared in Table. Health adaptation costs are in the same order of magnitude in the three studies, largely because they are based on the same underlying health impact data [7]. While the World Bank study has the lowest health sector cost of the 3 studies at US$ 2 billion annually over the period 2010-2050, it omits the costs of malnutrition, which are instead covered in the agriculture sector (see table). In fact, as other major health impacts of climate change (e.g. disasters, other tropical diseases, …) are excluded from these studies, and cost inputs of the programmes and services have been underestimated, the annual global costs will likely to be significantly greater than US$ 5 billion. Majority of health costs are in EAP, SA and SSA. Table 2.
- Cost estimates are approximate, and based on extrapolation of per capita cost estimates from "Proposed Framework For An Integrated Health Sector Response For Public Health Adaptation To Climate Change In Africa": WHO/UNEP 2011.