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Paper Presented for the seminar Dated 13th June,2009 in Rodas Hotel, Powai organized by
                          Institution of Valuers, Mumbai Branch




                          Value Add Consultant Presents

                                                      Special Township

                     Feasibility Studies and Valuation
                                                  For
                   Private Equity Investment Purpose



                                                    Presented By
                                                Er.Mohit R Mehta
                                           FIV,MRICS,MIE,MISSE
                                                        Promoter
                                            Value Add Consultant
                                               Advisors & Valuers
                                             vac@consultant.com
                                                +91-98924 89265



          Value Add Consultant                                                      1/13
Paper Presented for the seminar Dated 13th June,2009 in Rodas Hotel, Powai organized by
                            Institution of Valuers, Mumbai Branch

     Feasibility Study and Valuation of Special Townships
                     Development Project




Introduction
Housing has been one of the major concerns of Government of India due to large demand and
supply gap exits since independence. It has been realized that there is a need to incentivise
investment by private sector in real estate development. Government of India announced its
policy to permit 100% foreign direct investments for a development of integrated townships.

Government of Maharashtra in collaboration with Maharashtra economic development council
has organized an International infrastructure summit in 2002. Outcome of the summit was
Government of Maharashtra approved the Special Township Scheme in the year 2004.

Development Control Regulation for Respective Municipal Corporation like Greater Mumbai/
Thane Municipal Corporation/ MMR Region was amended to include provision for the Special
Township by Urban Development Department of Government of Maharashtra by issuing a
various Notifications i.e. No. TPS 1204 / Thane D.P. DCR / UD -12 dated 25th May,2006.

This paper has been presented to indicate how an private equity investor will be advised for
prospective acquisition of township land.

The key Regulations for Thane Municipal Corporation:
(Note: Most of the regulations are almost similar for each region except Few Regulations)

 Heading                                   : Summary of regulation
 Area Requirement                            Land Area shall be more then 100 Acres ( 40 Ha)
 Access                                    : Wide Access not less then 18 mt. width
 Land Parcel                               : Entire land parcel should be contiguous
 Exclusion                                 : Area under forest, water bodies like river, creek canal,
                                             reservoir, land in 100 mt. Limit of the high flood level of
                                             major lakes, dams and surrounding restricted area, land in


                Value Add Consultant                                                               2/13
Paper Presented for the seminar Dated 13th June,2009 in Rodas Hotel, Powai organized by
                          Institution of Valuers, Mumbai Branch
                                  command area of irrigation projects, land falling within the
                                  belt of 200mt. From the historical monuments and places
                                  of archeological monuments, heritage precincts and
                                  places, any restricted areas, notified national parks,
                                  existing and proposed industrial zones, gaothan areas or
                                  congested areas, truck terminus specially earmarked on
                                  development plan, wildlife corridors and biosphere
                                  reserves, eco-sensitive zone/area, quarry zone and
                                  recreational tourism development zone catchments areas
                                  of water bodies, defense areas, cantonment areas,
                                  notified area of SEZ, designated Port/ Harbor areas and
                                  recreational tourism zones.
Manner of Declaration         :   Land owner or developer holding rights do not require
                                  procedure under section-37 for declaration it special
                                  township however in case UD department needs to
                                  process under section -37 for notifying land under this
                                  scheme.
Infrastructure                :   Roads (Including Development Plan roads),approach
                                  road, street lights, water supply and drainage system shall
                                  be provided and maintained by developer till urban local
                                  body take charge of the township.
Amenity Development           :   Developers needs to develop amenity as designated
Water Supply                  :   Developer should Identify the source of drinking water
                                  (excluding ground water source) and get firm commitment
                                  from any water supply authority for meeting daily 140 liters
                                  per capita per day exclusive of water for fire fighting and
                                  gardening.
Water Storage Capacity        :   At least 1.5 times actual required capacity determined by
                                  expected residential and floating population.
Drainage         &   Garbage :    Developer should arrange in consultation with
Disposal                          Maharashtra Pollution Control Board.
Power                         :   The developer shall ensure continuous and good quality
                                  power supply to township area. Developer may use
                                  captive power generation route with approvals form
                                  authorities.
Environment                   :   Environment clearance shall be obtained from the Ministry
                                  of Environment and forests,Government of India (MOEF’s)
Parks /Garden & Playground    :   The township shall provide at least 20% of the total area
                                  as with proper landscaping and open uses designated in
                                  the township which shall be developed by developer.
Special Concessions           :   N.A. Permission is automatic as soon as the scheme is
                                  notified.
Stamp Duty                    :   The stamp duty rates applicable is notified special
                                  township area shall be 50% of prevailing rates of the
                                  Stamp Act.
Development Charges           :   A special township project shall be exempted upto 50% of
                                  the development charges.
Grant of Government Land   :      Government land can be leased out at market rent
Mumbai        Tenancy    & :      The condition that only agriculturist will be eligible to buy
Agriculture Land Act.             the agriculture land shall not be applicable in special


           Value Add Consultant                                                           3/13
Paper Presented for the seminar Dated 13th June,2009 in Rodas Hotel, Powai organized by
                          Institution of Valuers, Mumbai Branch
                                  township area.
Ceiling of agriculture land     : There shall be no ceiling limit for holding agriculture land
                                  to be purchased by the owner/developer for such project
ULC Act.                        : Projects shall be exempted under purview of ULC Act.
Development            Control : Prevailing DRC is applicable as well as CRZ notification is
Regulation                        applicable
Scrutiny Fees                   : A Special Township Project shall be partially exempted
                                  from payment of scrutiny fee
Floating FSI                    : Township have Floating FSI concept, unused FSI of one
                                  of plot can be used anywhere in the whole township
Special Benefits                : Concessions in respect of Star Category Hotels, Hospitals,
                                  and Multiplexes in Property Tax shall be provided
Planning Considerations         : The township project has to be an integrated township
                                  project. It should have following land use plan
Land Use Plan                   : Residential, Commercial, Educational, Amenity Spaces,
                                  Health Facilities, Parks, Gardens, & Play Grounds, Public
                                  Utilities
Residential Zone                : Out of the total built up area proposed to be utilized at
                                  least 60% of the area shall be used for purely residential
                                  development. Out of 60% proposed area for residential
                                  zone 10% shall be built for residential tenements having
                                  built up upto 40 sq.mts.
Commercial                      : It should be properly distributed in hierarchical manner
                                  such as convenient shopping, community centre etc.
Educational                     : Comprehensive educational system providing education
                                  from primary to secondary should be provided
Amenity Space                   : Market, essential shopping area, recreation centers, town
                                  hall library etc should not be less that 5% of gross area of
                                  township should be distributed evenly in township
Health Facilities               : Area requirement as per prevailing planning standards
Public Utilities                : Appropriate area allocation for power receiving station sub
                                  station, water supply system, sewerage and garbage
                                  disposal system, police station, public parking, cemetery /
                                  cremation ground, bus station, fire brigade station, and
                                  other public utilities shall be provided
Transport                       : The entire area of the township shall be well knitted with
                                  proper road pattern with effective linkages with inside and
                                  outside roads. All the roads shall be developed by
                                  developer as per standards and prescribed road width
Service Industries              : It can be provided in residential zones
DP Reservations                 : Reservations can be shifted anywhere in the township
                                  area with Municipal commissioner approval
DP reservations                 : It shall not be handed over to planning authority
DP Roads                        : It shall be developed and maintained by developer and
                                  always open to access for general public without any
                                  restrictions
Residential,      Agricultural, : The total FSI for the declared township is One (1)
Green & No Development            excluding area under Agriculture/Green Zone/ No
Zone                              Development Zone if any,
                                  For Agriculture/Green Zone/ No Development Zone


           Value Add Consultant                                                          4/13
Paper Presented for the seminar Dated 13th June,2009 in Rodas Hotel, Powai organized by
                              Institution of Valuers, Mumbai Branch
                                     applicable FSI will be 0.2.
 Global FSI                        : There will be no restriction of FSI for a particular Plot
                                     however FSI of entire township should not increase as
                                     mentioned above
 Height Restriction                : It should be as per prevailing, DCR however it can be
                                     increased subject to provisions of fire fighting
                                     arrangements and prior approval of Chief Fire Officer
 Use of DRC                        : DRC originated from any other area outside township shall
                                     not be permissible in township
 FSI for Agricultural, Green & : 50% of the total area is developable with gross FSI of 0.20
 No Development Zone                 of the entire gross area of the project
 TDR concept                       : Utilization of TDR generated form handing over build able
                                     reservation to authority is permissible over and above the
                                     permissible FSI
 Tree Plantation                   : 150 trees per ha. needs to be planted & maintained by the
                                     developer in residential zone townships and 400 trees per
                                     ha. shall be planted and maintained by developer in the
                                     agriculture, green zone and no development zone
                                     township
 Zone Changes                      : After submission of proposal no zone change proposal
                                     shall be considered by Government
 Sale Permission                   : Unless basic infrastructure to the satisfaction of
                                     commissioner has been provided by the developer sale
                                     permissions for plots or flats shall not be given to
                                     developer
 Phase wise Development            : In case development carried out in phase wise manner
                                     Sale permission is granted if phase wise basic
                                     infrastructure is completed by the developer
 Amenities, facilities & utilities : Plots earmarked for amenities, facilities and utilities shall
                                     also be developed simultaneously developed phase wise
                                     along with residential /allied development

Land Marks in Approval Process :

1             Locational Clearance :
1.1          A proposal should be submitted to Urban Development department and director of
             town planning and environment department along with ownership documents.
1.2           Within 90 days from the receipt of application a location clearance may be granted
              by Government under Section 45 of MRTP Act,1966.
1.3           Location clearance is valid for the period of one year from the date of issue.
1.4           If letter of intent and final approval is not obtained then such clearance stand
              lapsed unless renewed by the Government on application received before expiry of
              one year.

2             Letter of Intent :
2.1           Letter of Intent shall be obtained by the developer upon receipt of locational
              clearance from the Government, by submitting the proposal in respect of special
              township along with environmental clearance.
2.2           Letter of intent can be issued within period of 45 days from the date of receipt of
              the final proposal. It is valid for six months unless renewed


              Value Add Consultant                                                           5/13
Paper Presented for the seminar Dated 13th June,2009 in Rodas Hotel, Powai organized by
                              Institution of Valuers, Mumbai Branch


3            Final Approval :
3.1          On submission of plans, undertaking and agreement for development and
             maintenance of basic infrastructure amenities along with bank guarantee of 15% of
             its development costs.

4            Implementation & Completion:

      Stage                             :   Time Line
      Basic Infrastructure & Amenity    :   As per the phases of the scheme
      Entire Township                   :   Within 1 years from the date of final sanction
      Occupancy Certificate             :   Occupancy Certificate is must for building use




5        Hypothetical Township Scheme :
5.1      A hypothetical case of valuation of 500 Acres land to be acquired for developing a
         Special Township near upcoming international airport in Panvel has been discussed in
         this paper. Even though author has carried out similar assignments however to protect
         confidentiality of the client here presented live case by using hypothetical scheme.
5.2      A prospective acquirer /developer have approached for valuation of land parcel for the
         purpose of infusing private equity investments and debt form the international lender.
5.3      There are four possible scenarios in such instance. i.e. 1. Developer has already had
         final approval for the township intends to carry out valuation. 2. Developer has location
         clearance and letter of intent however did not applied for final approval 3.Developer
         has location clearance however yet to secure the letter of intent 4. Developer has just
         short listed site base on the assumption that location clearance and approval will be
         given on application for the same.



              Value Add Consultant                                                           6/13
Paper Presented for the seminar Dated 13th June,2009 in Rodas Hotel, Powai organized by
                              Institution of Valuers, Mumbai Branch
5.4       In first scenario there are more likely that township proposal will actually implemented
          and developed in phase wise manner. In this scenario factors affecting would be totally
          different then in case of scenario 4, where in there are no certainty and there are lots of
          variable which can affect township valuation to a greater extent.
5.5       In this paper we are discussing scenario no.- 4 where a 500 acre site with combination
          of Residential, Agricultural, Green & No Development Zones.

6         Valuation Methodology :
6.1       Since this is an income producing development project where in profits of investments
          will be realized in future, income approach is best suited to arrive a more accurate and
          reliable valuation. In income approach a discounted cash flow techniques will be the
          best method as revenue of development will be realized in future in phase wise.
6.2       A more reliable market approach for valuation of land acquired for may not be
          applicable due to non availability of exact comparable sale instances. However value
          arrived under DCF approach can be cross verified/ ascertained by using other
          approaches like cost approach and market approach.
6.3       In cost approach, where valuation of land is arrived by deducting total replacement
          cost of similar township minus sum of cost of building, infrastructure, approvals,
          marketing, amenities etc. will provided residual land value. However it is very difficult to
          find out cost of similar township as such township are not in existence as well as have
          different combination of development mix.
6.4       In this paper valuation using discounted cash flow will be discussed for simplicity.

7         Key Factors affect Valuation of Land:

    Total Development Costs               Infrastructure cost           Location
    Track record of developer             Demand & Supply               Access
    Management Team of Developer          Approval timings              Area of Land
    Developable Area ( Global FSI)        Construction Cycle            Topography
    Competitions from other projects Availability of Funding            Sales Plan
    Developments in surrounding area Soil bearing Capacity              Connectivity
    Amenities provided and availability of infrastructure               Neighborhood
    Timing for completion for entire township & each phase              Phase plan
    Launch cycles for various types of products of township             Inflation
    Availability of Water, Power & Sewage disposal mechanism            Attractions
    Discounting Rate used for NPV, Sale Rate, Payment Terms             Maintenance
    Development Mix i.e. residential, retail, commercial and other      Cost of Fund
    Distance form major landmarks airport, railway station, CBD         Cost of capital
    Class of houses like basic, premium house or ultra luxury etc.      Super Area Ratios
    Quality of development, amenities and infrastructure at large       Branding of township
    Overall real estate market and particular market under focus        Political Scenario
    Overall Team i.e. Architects, Structural designers, Planners etc.   Tax Structuring
    Lease Rentals, Lease Terms, Property Tax & Capitalisation Rate      Target Segments Profile
    Overall Country Risk, GDP Growth, Inflation and Currency Risks      Availability of Loan to Buyers
    Interest Rate Cycle & Apatite towards investment in the             Supply of similar land/project
    particular geographical where land is situated




               Value Add Consultant                                                                7/13
Paper Presented for the seminar Dated 13th June,2009 in Rodas Hotel, Powai organized by
                              Institution of Valuers, Mumbai Branch

8        Financial Model
8.1      We have prepared a discounted cash flow model as presented below in Table No.- 2
         for illustration purposed incorporating most of the assumptions as listed in Table No.-1
         to arrive at net cash flow form the project. We have assumed that Net Present Value
         ( NPV) arrived from this cash flow statement will be, a some what nearest, monetary
         number of land value, a prospective acquirer willing to pay for investing in such large
         project.
8.2      Due to the fact that all other costs has been incorporated to arrive NPV and taxes
         applicable on the project also incorporated in the model by incorporating Debt @
         designed debt equity ratio and allowing interest deduction from the profit of the project
         to calculate corporate tax and other taxes payable from the project. However for the
         simplicity we have illustrated an example where in overall effect of interest paid out will
         result in the marginal tax rate @ 30% of the profits from the project. We prepare a
         projected profit and loss accounts and balance sheet exactly arrive at applicable taxes.
         However for the simplicity here, provisional tax figures are illustrated.
8.2      In this financial model we have plugged in all possible options with flexibility to change
         all the input to arrive at NPV and Land Value figures quickly. We have also run
         sensitivities on various key factors, which were observed most sensitive to arrive at
         proper and reliable values which a perspective acquirer willing to pay after carefully
         scrutinizing from the range of values.
8.3      I would like to mention here that land value for the townships projects depends on
         combination of many factors as you can visualized in the financial model. It is very
         difficult to source as accurate data at acquisition stage for each variable. Hence
         running sensitivities is must for arriving more reliable results.

9        Scenario and Sensitivity Analysis
9.1      Valuation is a result of through analysis to be performed. We use sophisticated
         software’s like Argus or Forecast Plus and Estate Master to arrive at land value,
         however in absence of any such software’s best way is to develop a valuation model in
         spreadsheet like excel and carry out scenario analysis as well as sensitivities to arrive
         at more accurate result. I have developed valuation model for three scenarios.
1        Base Case Scenario
                           2               Worst Case Scenario
                                                           3   Best Case Scenario
9.2      In each scenario, by changing various factors as above, tabulated various key
         performance matrix i.e. Return of Investment ( ROI), Internal Rate of Return ( IRR), Net
         Present Value ( NPV), Profit of Cost, Break Even Time etc.
                                  Sample Sensitivity Matrix
                                 Arrived Land Value Per Sft
                    Discounted Rate                   20%         25%     30%
                    Residential               60% 689             459     321
                    Development               70% 597             413     275
                    Component                 75% 591             402     269



9.3      Based on the matrix identified three most sensitive factors to focus on and created a
         value matrix for each case by changing these three most sensitive factors, which affect
         land value to greater extent.




              Value Add Consultant                                                             8/13
Paper Presented for the seminar Dated 13th June,2009 in Rodas Hotel, Powai organized by
                           Institution of Valuers, Mumbai Branch
9.4    After preparing NPV and IRR matrix for various combinations as stated above, short
       listed most likely scenarios and band of value by picking up a range from entire matrix
       looking at IRR as well as NPV.
9.5    This band of the value is most nearest market value of land, however for the
       purpose of certification of a single value I have correlated values using other methods
       and picked up a more reliable and appropriate figure form the valuation bend.
8.4    This might be interest to all the stake holders that during implementation of project we
       transfer all the assumptions used in the financial model during valuation and feasibility
       study to software like “Argus”. We keep track of each and every factor by running
       models and produce reports on monthly basis to know the changes in the Key
       Performance Indicators. This help in devising strategies for the mitigation mechanism
       in the township management should adopt for the keeping their objectives and goals in
       line with the original thoughts.

10     Projected Revenue
10.1   Revenue from various sources generated after the development has been projected
       and phase wise distributed depending on the overall master plan & sales strategy.
10.2   Total Projected Revenue form the subject township project is projected at INR
       12,200 Corers.

11     Projected Cost
11.1   Total project cost / investments have been incorporated in the financial model as
       stated in Table -2. This includes soft costs like approvals, consultants, branding &
       marketing as well as hard costs like cost of infrastructure, buildings and other
       amenities.
11.2   Overall Projected cost excluding land and interest cost is INR 5291 Crores.

12     Net Cash Flow
12.1   A net cash flow statement before tax has been arrived by deducting Revenue and
       Costs. We did not described here effect of debt & equity for simplicity however overall
       effects has been considered and net cash flow after tax has been prepared to assess
       overall profitability and Internal Rate of Return a project generates.

13     Discounting Factor & Capitalisation Rate
13.1   Selection of discounting factor is the key in the entire exercise. We have demonstrated
       in Table-1 above how a change in discounting factor has significant influence on
       valuation. There are several methods for calculating appropriate discounting rate.
       However for simplicity and limited scope we have not discussed how discounting rate
       has been arrived.
13.2   Capitalisation Rate/ Yields are assumed from the market analysis of similar types of
       properties as well as using fisher’s equation and CAPM model.Even though it has
       significant influence on the exit valuation foe the simplicity we did discussed in detail
       how capitalization rate has been arrived.

14     Key Performance Indicators NPV,IRR,ROI
14.1   A perspective acquirer / developer will acquire land parcel with specific financial goals.
       His/her expectation in terms of returns from the project can be measured from
       Profitability of Project i.e. Return on Investment ( ROI), Internal Rate of Return (IRR),
       Net Present Value ( NPV) as well as pay back time and profit on costs.


           Value Add Consultant                                                             9/13
Paper Presented for the seminar Dated 13th June,2009 in Rodas Hotel, Powai organized by
                           Institution of Valuers, Mumbai Branch
14.2   We have changed project variable to arrive at appropriate IRR & ROI targets and
       based on that arrived land value. Even though it will not be 100% accurate result i.e. if
       developer purchase land at this price then he will generate a guaranteed profit of this
       much rupees. However this is most scientific and internationally accepted way of
       arriving land value for such ambitious project.

15     Few Recommendations:

15.1   Please ask for the latest actual measurement and boundary plans while visiting site.

15.2   Ask for designated Development Plan remarks to know about reservations and all the
       information necessary to carry out valuation.

15.3   Please verify as much as possible source of water & power and access as well as
       connectivity to main highways & rail networks, these are the main challenges a
       township developer generally faces.

15.4   The topography of the site plays a big role in overall valuation process. Hence please
       ask for land topographical survey plans.

15.5   Overall mission statement, concept plan and objectives of the development are key
       information a valuer should find out from the developer.

15.6   A land value depends on developable area potential as well as overall demand in that
       particular area. Hence market research should not be ignored while valuing land.

15.7   Master Planning and Architectural design as well as market positioning has important
       role in overall township development. Valuer should know all this information by
       discussing with developer as much in detail as possible.

15.8   Availability of debt and cost of capital significantly affect profitability as well as overall
       returns to the investors. Valuer should ask for the source of funding i.e. debt equity
       mix. ( Financial Closure ) and use of fund statements from the developer.

15.9   Tax structuring to avoid tax leakages is most important element for the entire viability
       of the project. Valuer should understand prevailing structures for FDI investments as
       well as ongoing changes in these structures.

16     Outcome and Conclusion
16.1   Based on the analysis we are of the opinion that value band for the proposed township
       project is in the range of Rs.350 per sq.ft. to Rs.600 per sq.ft.
16.2   We have compared above value band with prevailing rates obtained from the proposal
       received from investors of the similar township projects to sell the projects as well as
       overall market expectation.
16.3   We are of the opinion that the proposed land value is Rs.400 per sq.ft. i.e.1.74
       Cr.per acre. As on date of valuation i.e. 13th June,2009.
16.4   This result in total land value of Rs.871 Crores.
16.5   We did not mentioned the detail lists of assumptions made, disclaimers, as well as
       documents verified or information to be received from the clients here due to shortage
       of space.


           Value Add Consultant                                                               10/13
Paper Presented for the seminar Dated 13th June,2009 in Rodas Hotel, Powai organized by Institution of Valuers, Mumbai Branch



 Table -1                           Detail List of Assumptions Used for One of the Scenario to Arrive Valuation of Land Using DCF Techniques
 Sr.No.     Assumption                                                       Unit       Value     Sr.No.        Assumption                            Unit                           Value                 Remark
 1          Land Area                                                        Acre       500       2             Land Area                             Sft                            21,780,500
 3          Time For Development                                             Years      10        4             Letter of Intent                      Year                           1
 5          Total No of Phases                                               Nos        5         6             Each Phase                            Years                          2
            Revenue Assumptions                                              It is assumed that Loss of Built Up area due to compulsory open space, garden, play ground, roads etc will be compensated by super areas. Hence
                                                                             effect is nullified.
 7          Types of Development                                                          Area     Sale Rate      Unit                                 Escalation                       Unit
 8          Basic Residential                                                %            40           3,500      Rs.Per Sft                           5%                               Per Annum
 9          Premium Residential                                              %          15             4,200    Rs.Per Sft                            5%                             Per Annum
 10         Luxurious Residential                                            %          5              5,880    Rs.Per Sft                            5%                             Per Annum
 11         Commercial Space for Sale                                        %          20             5,000    Rs.Per Sft                            7%                             Per Annum             Phase II
 12         Retail Space for Sale                                            %          10             7,000    Rs.Per Sft                            7%                             Per Annum             Phase II
 13         Commercial Space for Lease                                       %          5         25.00         Rs.Per Sft Per Month                  7%                             Per Annum             Phase II
 14         Retail Space for Lease                                           %          5         50            Rs.Per Sft Per Month                  7%                             Per Annum             Phase II
 15         Amenity/Other Area Lease Rate                                    %          10        22.5          Rs.Per Sft Per Month                  7%                             Per Annum             Phase II
            Revenue Receipt Plan                                                        INR       Phase I       II                                    III                            IV                    V
 16         Basic Residential                                                                     10%           45%                                   45%                             -                    -
 17         Premium Residential                                                                   50%           50%                                    -                              -
 18         Luxurious Residential                                                                 5%            25%                                   45%                            25%                    -
 19         Commercial Space for Sale                                                             10%           25%                                   40%                            25%                    -
 20         Retail Space for Sale                                                                 20%           35%                                   20%                            15%                   10%
 21         Commercial Space for Lease                                                             -            40%                                   30%                            20%                   10%
 22         Retail Space for Lease                                                                 -            10%                                   25%                            40%                   25%
 23         Amenity/Other Area Lease Rate                                                          -            25%                                   40%                            35%                   0%
 Costs ( Avearage for Entier Duration inclusive of Escalation by Max Price Contracts)   INR       Phase I       II                                    III                            IV                    V
 24         Approval Costs                                                   Sft        150       91%           2%                                    2%                             2%                    3%
 25         Consultant Fees                                                  Sft        150       30%           20%                                   20%                            20%                   10%
 26         Marketing Costs on 80% of total revenue                          %          2%        9%            15%                                   50%                            20%                   6%
 27         Cost of Infrastructure Development                               Sft        300       60%           10%                                   10%                            10%                   10%
 28         Cost of Amenity( other area) Development                         Sft        1,200     2.50%         32.50%                                40%                            25%
 29         Cost of Branding on 80% of total revenue                         %          3%        9%            15%                                   50%                            20%                   6%
 30         Cost of Construction for Basic Residential Flats                 Sft        1,500     25.00%        52.50%                                22.50%                         -                     -
 31         Cost of Construction for Premium Residential Flats               Sft        1,700     10%           60%                                   30%                            -                     -
  32        Cost of Construction for Luxurious Residential Flats             Sft        2,000     -             5%                                    35%                            45%                   15%
 33         Cost of Construction for Commercial Space for Lease              Sft        2,000     10%           30%                                   25%                            20%                   5%




Value Add Consultant                                                                                                               11/13
Paper Presented for the seminar Dated 13th June,2009 in Rodas Hotel, Powai organized by Institution of Valuers, Mumbai Branch



                       34          Cost of Construction for Commercial Space for Sale                Sft           1,800       2.50%          12.50%                              30%                             37.50%                   17.50%
                       35          Cost of Construction for Retail Space for Lease                   Sft           1,700       5%             37.50%                              27.50%                          22.50%                   7.50%
                       36          Cost of Construction for Retail Space for Sale                    Sft           1,500       30%            30.00%                              15.00%                          20%                      5%
                                   Lease Capitalisation Rate
                       37          Capitalisation Rate for Sale of Commercial Portfolio in Phase – IV                          10%
                       38          Capitalization Rate for Sale of Commercial Portfolio in Phase – V                           8%
                       39          Capitalisation Rate for Sale of Retail Portfolio in Phase - IV Sale                         8%
                       40          Capitalisation Rate for Sale of Retail Portfolio in Phase - V                               8%
                       41          Capitalisation Rate for Sale of Amenity Portfolio in Phase IV                               12.50%
                        42         Capitalisation Rate for Sale of Amenity Portfolio in Phase V                                10%



Table – 2 Projected Cash Flow Statement For One of the Scenario Considered for the Township in Phase wise manner
                           21,780,500               Sft              Year 0               Year 1                 Year 2                 Year 3             Year 4             Year 5              Year 6                Year 7                  Year 8             Year 9               Year 10
                            500 Acres               %                                    Phase – I                                              Phase – II                            Phase – III                                Phase – IV                                 Phase - V
Revenue from Sale of Basic Residential              40 %                        -                    -         3,049,270,000         6,403,467,000      8,404,550,438      12,354,689,143      3,706,406,743                       -                     -                    -                   -
Revenue from Sale of Premium Residential            15 %                        -                    -                     -         2,881,560,150       4,538,457,236      6,353,840,131        1,667,883,034                     -                     -                    -                   -
Flats
Revenue from Sale of Luxurious Flats                5%                          -                    -                     -                        -      294,159,265       617,734,457           972,931,770        1,362,104,478        1,787,762,127         1,501,720,187          394,201,549
Net Revenue from Lease of Commercial                5%                          -                    -                                  65,341,500         135,256,905       210,066,388           255,805,438          304,746,222             52,366,638        111,173,988                     -
Revenue from Sale of Commercial                     20 %                        -                    -                     -           816,768,750         873,942,563      1,870,237,084        3,001,730,519        4,282,468,874        7,629,703,914         3,677,248,961        3,957,192,119
Net Revenue from Lease of Retail Space              5%                          -                    -                     -            65,341,500         275,087,715       312,492,457           495,448,657           97,881,567          254,981,482           313,788,832          376,712,697
Revenue from Sale of Retail Space                   10 %                        -                    -         1,524,635,000         1,631,359,450       1,309,165,959       933,871,717           999,242,737        5,945,383,880        1,716,049,515         1,224,115,321        4,520,552,358
Net Revenue from Lease of Amenity                   10 %                        -                    -                     -            58,807,350         310,502,808       579,816,948           909,138,108          352,373,641           635,153,488                     -                   -
Revenue from Sale of Amenity Areas                  10 %                        -                    -                     -                      -                   -                     -                 -     7,273,104,864                    -         6,351,534,883                    -
Total Revenue from township                         100       0                      0                     4,573,912,000            11,922,658,216      16,141,136,280    23,232,762,655        12,008,602,344    19,618,079,937       12,076,034,724        13,179,600,961        9,248,678,827
Approval Costs                                      150           (1,470,183,750)    (1,470,183,750)       (32,670,750)             (32,670,750)        (32,670,750)      (32,670,750)          (32,670,750)      (32,670,750)         (32,670,750)          (32,670,750)         (65,341,500)
Consultant Fees                                     150            (326,707,500)         (326,707,500)     (326,707,500)            (326,707,500)       (326,707,500)     (326,707,500)         (326,707,500)     (326,707,500)        (326,707,500)         (326,707,500)                        0
Marketing Costs                                     2%              (39,040,431)          (58,560,646)     (78,080,862)             (97,601,077)        (195,202,154)     (390,404,309)         (585,606,463)     (195,202,154)        (195,202,154)         (117,121,293)                        0
Cost of Infrastructure Development                  300            (326,707,500)     (1,306,830,000)       (2,286,952,500)          (326,707,500)       (326,707,500)     (326,707,500)         (326,707,500)     (326,707,500)        (326,707,500)         (326,707,500)        (326,707,500)
Cost of Amenity( other Development                  1,200                      0                     0          (65,341,500)        (326,707,500)       (522,732,000)     (522,732,000)         (522,732,000)     (457,390,500)        (196,024,500)                         0                    0
Cost of Branding                                    3%              (58,560,646)          (87,840,970)     (117,121,293)            (146,401,616)       (292,803,232)     (585,606,463)         (878,409,695)     (292,803,232)        (292,803,232)         (175,681,939)                        0
Cost of Construction for Basic Residential Flats                               0     (653,415,000)         (1,960,245,000)          (2,940,367,500)     (3,920,490,000)   (2,940,367,500)       (653,415,000)                     0                      0                   0                    0
                                                    1,500
Cost of Construction for Premium Residential                  0                      0                     (555,402,750)            (1,388,506,875)     (1,943,909,625)   (1,388,506,875)       (277,701,375)     0                    0                     0                    0
Flats                                               1,700
Cost of Construction for Luxurious Residential                0                      0                     0                        (54,451,250)        (163,353,750)     (272,256,250)         (381,158,750)     (490,061,250)        (490,061,250)         (272,256,250)        (54,451,250)
Flats                                               2,000




                    Value Add Consultant                                                                                                                     12/13
Paper Presented for the seminar Dated 13th June,2009 in Rodas Hotel, Powai organized by Institution of Valuers, Mumbai Branch



 Cost of Construction for Commercial Space for     2,000   0                 0                 (217,805,000)     (435,610,000)     (435,610,000)     (326,707,500)     (217,805,000)     (217,805,000)     (217,805,000)     (108,902,500)     0
 Lease
 Cost of Construction for Commercial Space for     1,800   0                 0                 (147,018,375)     (294,036,750)     (441,055,125)     (735,091,875)     (1,029,128,625)   (1,176,147,000)   (1,029,128,625)   (735,091,875)     (294,036,750)
 Sale
 Cost of Construction for Retail Space for Lease   1,700   0                 0                 (92,567,125)      (370,268,500)     (323,984,938)     (231,417,813)     (277,701,375)     (231,417,813)     (185,134,250)     (92,567,125)      (46,283,563)
 Cost of Construction for Retail Space             1,500   0                 (163,353,750)     (326,707,500)     (285,869,063)     (204,192,188)     (163,353,750)     (81,676,875)      (122,515,313)     (204,192,188)     (81,676,875)      0
 Total Cost of development & other costs                   (2,221,199,827)   (4,066,891,616)   (6,206,620,154)   (7,025,905,881)   (9,129,418,761)   (8,242,530,085)   (5,591,420,908)   (3,869,428,011)   (3,496,436,949)   (2,269,383,607)   (786,820,563)
 Net Cash Flow                                             (2,221,199,827)   (4,066,891,616)   (1,632,708,154)   4,896,752,335     7,011,717,519     14,990,232,570    6,417,181,436     15,748,651,926    8,579,597,775     10,910,217,354    8,461,858,265
 Provisional Tax @ Marginal Rate @30%                                                                                              (1,196,301,077)   (4,497,069,771)   (1,925,154,431)   (4,724,595,578)   (2,573,879,333)   (3,273,065,206)   (2,538,557,479)
 Net Cash Flow After Provisional Tax                       (2,221,199,827)   (4,066,891,616)   (1,632,708,154)   4,896,752,335     5,815,416,442     10,493,162,799    4,492,027,005     11,024,056,348    6,005,718,443     7,637,152,148     5,923,300,785


 NPV Before Tax @ 25%                        10,055,035,527             6,372,798,617          NPV Considering Provision Tax Figures
 Unlevered IRR Before Tax                    58%                        49%
 Land Value                                  10,000,000,000             10,000,000,000
 Land Value Per Acre                         20,000,000                 20,000,000
 Land Value Per Sq.ft.                       INR 459                    INR 459
 ROI                                         13.06%                     9.14%                  ROI Assuming Tax

Introduction of Author

Mohit Mehta is founder promoter and Director of a boutique Valuation & Advisory firm, M/s. Value Add Consultant (“VAC”), India. He is member of Royal
Institute of Chartered Surveyor, U.K.(MRICS). He has started his career as an engineer and then moved to valuation by joining International Property
Consultant. Since then engaged in local and international real estate markets on Multi Million Dollars real estate townships or mega projects. He is registered
with Income Tax Department in Immovable Property Valuer panel and Member of Institution of Valuer, India. VAC believes in sharing and spreading of
knowledge as well as energy efficient sustainable practices.

Apart from Bachelors Degree in Civil Engineering he holds Masters in Valuation Degree, which is accredited by Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyor, London,
U.K. He has recently delivered training program, in the special certificate course in valuation, organized by Institute of Chartered Accountant (ICAI). Value Add
Consultant’s recent one day seminar organized in Mumbai with Institute of Engineers was warmly appreciated by participants and guests. VAC is specialized in
income producing real estate portfolio valuation as well as development project valuation and ongoing monitoring and project management. Please contact
author for any queries either on GSM +91-98924 89265 or Email : vac@consultant.com




                    Value Add Consultant                                                                                                13/13

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Mohit Mehtas Paper Presented For Iov Seminar Ver 1

  • 1. Paper Presented for the seminar Dated 13th June,2009 in Rodas Hotel, Powai organized by Institution of Valuers, Mumbai Branch Value Add Consultant Presents Special Township Feasibility Studies and Valuation For Private Equity Investment Purpose Presented By Er.Mohit R Mehta FIV,MRICS,MIE,MISSE Promoter Value Add Consultant Advisors & Valuers vac@consultant.com +91-98924 89265 Value Add Consultant 1/13
  • 2. Paper Presented for the seminar Dated 13th June,2009 in Rodas Hotel, Powai organized by Institution of Valuers, Mumbai Branch Feasibility Study and Valuation of Special Townships Development Project Introduction Housing has been one of the major concerns of Government of India due to large demand and supply gap exits since independence. It has been realized that there is a need to incentivise investment by private sector in real estate development. Government of India announced its policy to permit 100% foreign direct investments for a development of integrated townships. Government of Maharashtra in collaboration with Maharashtra economic development council has organized an International infrastructure summit in 2002. Outcome of the summit was Government of Maharashtra approved the Special Township Scheme in the year 2004. Development Control Regulation for Respective Municipal Corporation like Greater Mumbai/ Thane Municipal Corporation/ MMR Region was amended to include provision for the Special Township by Urban Development Department of Government of Maharashtra by issuing a various Notifications i.e. No. TPS 1204 / Thane D.P. DCR / UD -12 dated 25th May,2006. This paper has been presented to indicate how an private equity investor will be advised for prospective acquisition of township land. The key Regulations for Thane Municipal Corporation: (Note: Most of the regulations are almost similar for each region except Few Regulations) Heading : Summary of regulation Area Requirement Land Area shall be more then 100 Acres ( 40 Ha) Access : Wide Access not less then 18 mt. width Land Parcel : Entire land parcel should be contiguous Exclusion : Area under forest, water bodies like river, creek canal, reservoir, land in 100 mt. Limit of the high flood level of major lakes, dams and surrounding restricted area, land in Value Add Consultant 2/13
  • 3. Paper Presented for the seminar Dated 13th June,2009 in Rodas Hotel, Powai organized by Institution of Valuers, Mumbai Branch command area of irrigation projects, land falling within the belt of 200mt. From the historical monuments and places of archeological monuments, heritage precincts and places, any restricted areas, notified national parks, existing and proposed industrial zones, gaothan areas or congested areas, truck terminus specially earmarked on development plan, wildlife corridors and biosphere reserves, eco-sensitive zone/area, quarry zone and recreational tourism development zone catchments areas of water bodies, defense areas, cantonment areas, notified area of SEZ, designated Port/ Harbor areas and recreational tourism zones. Manner of Declaration : Land owner or developer holding rights do not require procedure under section-37 for declaration it special township however in case UD department needs to process under section -37 for notifying land under this scheme. Infrastructure : Roads (Including Development Plan roads),approach road, street lights, water supply and drainage system shall be provided and maintained by developer till urban local body take charge of the township. Amenity Development : Developers needs to develop amenity as designated Water Supply : Developer should Identify the source of drinking water (excluding ground water source) and get firm commitment from any water supply authority for meeting daily 140 liters per capita per day exclusive of water for fire fighting and gardening. Water Storage Capacity : At least 1.5 times actual required capacity determined by expected residential and floating population. Drainage & Garbage : Developer should arrange in consultation with Disposal Maharashtra Pollution Control Board. Power : The developer shall ensure continuous and good quality power supply to township area. Developer may use captive power generation route with approvals form authorities. Environment : Environment clearance shall be obtained from the Ministry of Environment and forests,Government of India (MOEF’s) Parks /Garden & Playground : The township shall provide at least 20% of the total area as with proper landscaping and open uses designated in the township which shall be developed by developer. Special Concessions : N.A. Permission is automatic as soon as the scheme is notified. Stamp Duty : The stamp duty rates applicable is notified special township area shall be 50% of prevailing rates of the Stamp Act. Development Charges : A special township project shall be exempted upto 50% of the development charges. Grant of Government Land : Government land can be leased out at market rent Mumbai Tenancy & : The condition that only agriculturist will be eligible to buy Agriculture Land Act. the agriculture land shall not be applicable in special Value Add Consultant 3/13
  • 4. Paper Presented for the seminar Dated 13th June,2009 in Rodas Hotel, Powai organized by Institution of Valuers, Mumbai Branch township area. Ceiling of agriculture land : There shall be no ceiling limit for holding agriculture land to be purchased by the owner/developer for such project ULC Act. : Projects shall be exempted under purview of ULC Act. Development Control : Prevailing DRC is applicable as well as CRZ notification is Regulation applicable Scrutiny Fees : A Special Township Project shall be partially exempted from payment of scrutiny fee Floating FSI : Township have Floating FSI concept, unused FSI of one of plot can be used anywhere in the whole township Special Benefits : Concessions in respect of Star Category Hotels, Hospitals, and Multiplexes in Property Tax shall be provided Planning Considerations : The township project has to be an integrated township project. It should have following land use plan Land Use Plan : Residential, Commercial, Educational, Amenity Spaces, Health Facilities, Parks, Gardens, & Play Grounds, Public Utilities Residential Zone : Out of the total built up area proposed to be utilized at least 60% of the area shall be used for purely residential development. Out of 60% proposed area for residential zone 10% shall be built for residential tenements having built up upto 40 sq.mts. Commercial : It should be properly distributed in hierarchical manner such as convenient shopping, community centre etc. Educational : Comprehensive educational system providing education from primary to secondary should be provided Amenity Space : Market, essential shopping area, recreation centers, town hall library etc should not be less that 5% of gross area of township should be distributed evenly in township Health Facilities : Area requirement as per prevailing planning standards Public Utilities : Appropriate area allocation for power receiving station sub station, water supply system, sewerage and garbage disposal system, police station, public parking, cemetery / cremation ground, bus station, fire brigade station, and other public utilities shall be provided Transport : The entire area of the township shall be well knitted with proper road pattern with effective linkages with inside and outside roads. All the roads shall be developed by developer as per standards and prescribed road width Service Industries : It can be provided in residential zones DP Reservations : Reservations can be shifted anywhere in the township area with Municipal commissioner approval DP reservations : It shall not be handed over to planning authority DP Roads : It shall be developed and maintained by developer and always open to access for general public without any restrictions Residential, Agricultural, : The total FSI for the declared township is One (1) Green & No Development excluding area under Agriculture/Green Zone/ No Zone Development Zone if any, For Agriculture/Green Zone/ No Development Zone Value Add Consultant 4/13
  • 5. Paper Presented for the seminar Dated 13th June,2009 in Rodas Hotel, Powai organized by Institution of Valuers, Mumbai Branch applicable FSI will be 0.2. Global FSI : There will be no restriction of FSI for a particular Plot however FSI of entire township should not increase as mentioned above Height Restriction : It should be as per prevailing, DCR however it can be increased subject to provisions of fire fighting arrangements and prior approval of Chief Fire Officer Use of DRC : DRC originated from any other area outside township shall not be permissible in township FSI for Agricultural, Green & : 50% of the total area is developable with gross FSI of 0.20 No Development Zone of the entire gross area of the project TDR concept : Utilization of TDR generated form handing over build able reservation to authority is permissible over and above the permissible FSI Tree Plantation : 150 trees per ha. needs to be planted & maintained by the developer in residential zone townships and 400 trees per ha. shall be planted and maintained by developer in the agriculture, green zone and no development zone township Zone Changes : After submission of proposal no zone change proposal shall be considered by Government Sale Permission : Unless basic infrastructure to the satisfaction of commissioner has been provided by the developer sale permissions for plots or flats shall not be given to developer Phase wise Development : In case development carried out in phase wise manner Sale permission is granted if phase wise basic infrastructure is completed by the developer Amenities, facilities & utilities : Plots earmarked for amenities, facilities and utilities shall also be developed simultaneously developed phase wise along with residential /allied development Land Marks in Approval Process : 1 Locational Clearance : 1.1 A proposal should be submitted to Urban Development department and director of town planning and environment department along with ownership documents. 1.2 Within 90 days from the receipt of application a location clearance may be granted by Government under Section 45 of MRTP Act,1966. 1.3 Location clearance is valid for the period of one year from the date of issue. 1.4 If letter of intent and final approval is not obtained then such clearance stand lapsed unless renewed by the Government on application received before expiry of one year. 2 Letter of Intent : 2.1 Letter of Intent shall be obtained by the developer upon receipt of locational clearance from the Government, by submitting the proposal in respect of special township along with environmental clearance. 2.2 Letter of intent can be issued within period of 45 days from the date of receipt of the final proposal. It is valid for six months unless renewed Value Add Consultant 5/13
  • 6. Paper Presented for the seminar Dated 13th June,2009 in Rodas Hotel, Powai organized by Institution of Valuers, Mumbai Branch 3 Final Approval : 3.1 On submission of plans, undertaking and agreement for development and maintenance of basic infrastructure amenities along with bank guarantee of 15% of its development costs. 4 Implementation & Completion: Stage : Time Line Basic Infrastructure & Amenity : As per the phases of the scheme Entire Township : Within 1 years from the date of final sanction Occupancy Certificate : Occupancy Certificate is must for building use 5 Hypothetical Township Scheme : 5.1 A hypothetical case of valuation of 500 Acres land to be acquired for developing a Special Township near upcoming international airport in Panvel has been discussed in this paper. Even though author has carried out similar assignments however to protect confidentiality of the client here presented live case by using hypothetical scheme. 5.2 A prospective acquirer /developer have approached for valuation of land parcel for the purpose of infusing private equity investments and debt form the international lender. 5.3 There are four possible scenarios in such instance. i.e. 1. Developer has already had final approval for the township intends to carry out valuation. 2. Developer has location clearance and letter of intent however did not applied for final approval 3.Developer has location clearance however yet to secure the letter of intent 4. Developer has just short listed site base on the assumption that location clearance and approval will be given on application for the same. Value Add Consultant 6/13
  • 7. Paper Presented for the seminar Dated 13th June,2009 in Rodas Hotel, Powai organized by Institution of Valuers, Mumbai Branch 5.4 In first scenario there are more likely that township proposal will actually implemented and developed in phase wise manner. In this scenario factors affecting would be totally different then in case of scenario 4, where in there are no certainty and there are lots of variable which can affect township valuation to a greater extent. 5.5 In this paper we are discussing scenario no.- 4 where a 500 acre site with combination of Residential, Agricultural, Green & No Development Zones. 6 Valuation Methodology : 6.1 Since this is an income producing development project where in profits of investments will be realized in future, income approach is best suited to arrive a more accurate and reliable valuation. In income approach a discounted cash flow techniques will be the best method as revenue of development will be realized in future in phase wise. 6.2 A more reliable market approach for valuation of land acquired for may not be applicable due to non availability of exact comparable sale instances. However value arrived under DCF approach can be cross verified/ ascertained by using other approaches like cost approach and market approach. 6.3 In cost approach, where valuation of land is arrived by deducting total replacement cost of similar township minus sum of cost of building, infrastructure, approvals, marketing, amenities etc. will provided residual land value. However it is very difficult to find out cost of similar township as such township are not in existence as well as have different combination of development mix. 6.4 In this paper valuation using discounted cash flow will be discussed for simplicity. 7 Key Factors affect Valuation of Land: Total Development Costs Infrastructure cost Location Track record of developer Demand & Supply Access Management Team of Developer Approval timings Area of Land Developable Area ( Global FSI) Construction Cycle Topography Competitions from other projects Availability of Funding Sales Plan Developments in surrounding area Soil bearing Capacity Connectivity Amenities provided and availability of infrastructure Neighborhood Timing for completion for entire township & each phase Phase plan Launch cycles for various types of products of township Inflation Availability of Water, Power & Sewage disposal mechanism Attractions Discounting Rate used for NPV, Sale Rate, Payment Terms Maintenance Development Mix i.e. residential, retail, commercial and other Cost of Fund Distance form major landmarks airport, railway station, CBD Cost of capital Class of houses like basic, premium house or ultra luxury etc. Super Area Ratios Quality of development, amenities and infrastructure at large Branding of township Overall real estate market and particular market under focus Political Scenario Overall Team i.e. Architects, Structural designers, Planners etc. Tax Structuring Lease Rentals, Lease Terms, Property Tax & Capitalisation Rate Target Segments Profile Overall Country Risk, GDP Growth, Inflation and Currency Risks Availability of Loan to Buyers Interest Rate Cycle & Apatite towards investment in the Supply of similar land/project particular geographical where land is situated Value Add Consultant 7/13
  • 8. Paper Presented for the seminar Dated 13th June,2009 in Rodas Hotel, Powai organized by Institution of Valuers, Mumbai Branch 8 Financial Model 8.1 We have prepared a discounted cash flow model as presented below in Table No.- 2 for illustration purposed incorporating most of the assumptions as listed in Table No.-1 to arrive at net cash flow form the project. We have assumed that Net Present Value ( NPV) arrived from this cash flow statement will be, a some what nearest, monetary number of land value, a prospective acquirer willing to pay for investing in such large project. 8.2 Due to the fact that all other costs has been incorporated to arrive NPV and taxes applicable on the project also incorporated in the model by incorporating Debt @ designed debt equity ratio and allowing interest deduction from the profit of the project to calculate corporate tax and other taxes payable from the project. However for the simplicity we have illustrated an example where in overall effect of interest paid out will result in the marginal tax rate @ 30% of the profits from the project. We prepare a projected profit and loss accounts and balance sheet exactly arrive at applicable taxes. However for the simplicity here, provisional tax figures are illustrated. 8.2 In this financial model we have plugged in all possible options with flexibility to change all the input to arrive at NPV and Land Value figures quickly. We have also run sensitivities on various key factors, which were observed most sensitive to arrive at proper and reliable values which a perspective acquirer willing to pay after carefully scrutinizing from the range of values. 8.3 I would like to mention here that land value for the townships projects depends on combination of many factors as you can visualized in the financial model. It is very difficult to source as accurate data at acquisition stage for each variable. Hence running sensitivities is must for arriving more reliable results. 9 Scenario and Sensitivity Analysis 9.1 Valuation is a result of through analysis to be performed. We use sophisticated software’s like Argus or Forecast Plus and Estate Master to arrive at land value, however in absence of any such software’s best way is to develop a valuation model in spreadsheet like excel and carry out scenario analysis as well as sensitivities to arrive at more accurate result. I have developed valuation model for three scenarios. 1 Base Case Scenario 2 Worst Case Scenario 3 Best Case Scenario 9.2 In each scenario, by changing various factors as above, tabulated various key performance matrix i.e. Return of Investment ( ROI), Internal Rate of Return ( IRR), Net Present Value ( NPV), Profit of Cost, Break Even Time etc. Sample Sensitivity Matrix Arrived Land Value Per Sft Discounted Rate 20% 25% 30% Residential 60% 689 459 321 Development 70% 597 413 275 Component 75% 591 402 269 9.3 Based on the matrix identified three most sensitive factors to focus on and created a value matrix for each case by changing these three most sensitive factors, which affect land value to greater extent. Value Add Consultant 8/13
  • 9. Paper Presented for the seminar Dated 13th June,2009 in Rodas Hotel, Powai organized by Institution of Valuers, Mumbai Branch 9.4 After preparing NPV and IRR matrix for various combinations as stated above, short listed most likely scenarios and band of value by picking up a range from entire matrix looking at IRR as well as NPV. 9.5 This band of the value is most nearest market value of land, however for the purpose of certification of a single value I have correlated values using other methods and picked up a more reliable and appropriate figure form the valuation bend. 8.4 This might be interest to all the stake holders that during implementation of project we transfer all the assumptions used in the financial model during valuation and feasibility study to software like “Argus”. We keep track of each and every factor by running models and produce reports on monthly basis to know the changes in the Key Performance Indicators. This help in devising strategies for the mitigation mechanism in the township management should adopt for the keeping their objectives and goals in line with the original thoughts. 10 Projected Revenue 10.1 Revenue from various sources generated after the development has been projected and phase wise distributed depending on the overall master plan & sales strategy. 10.2 Total Projected Revenue form the subject township project is projected at INR 12,200 Corers. 11 Projected Cost 11.1 Total project cost / investments have been incorporated in the financial model as stated in Table -2. This includes soft costs like approvals, consultants, branding & marketing as well as hard costs like cost of infrastructure, buildings and other amenities. 11.2 Overall Projected cost excluding land and interest cost is INR 5291 Crores. 12 Net Cash Flow 12.1 A net cash flow statement before tax has been arrived by deducting Revenue and Costs. We did not described here effect of debt & equity for simplicity however overall effects has been considered and net cash flow after tax has been prepared to assess overall profitability and Internal Rate of Return a project generates. 13 Discounting Factor & Capitalisation Rate 13.1 Selection of discounting factor is the key in the entire exercise. We have demonstrated in Table-1 above how a change in discounting factor has significant influence on valuation. There are several methods for calculating appropriate discounting rate. However for simplicity and limited scope we have not discussed how discounting rate has been arrived. 13.2 Capitalisation Rate/ Yields are assumed from the market analysis of similar types of properties as well as using fisher’s equation and CAPM model.Even though it has significant influence on the exit valuation foe the simplicity we did discussed in detail how capitalization rate has been arrived. 14 Key Performance Indicators NPV,IRR,ROI 14.1 A perspective acquirer / developer will acquire land parcel with specific financial goals. His/her expectation in terms of returns from the project can be measured from Profitability of Project i.e. Return on Investment ( ROI), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), Net Present Value ( NPV) as well as pay back time and profit on costs. Value Add Consultant 9/13
  • 10. Paper Presented for the seminar Dated 13th June,2009 in Rodas Hotel, Powai organized by Institution of Valuers, Mumbai Branch 14.2 We have changed project variable to arrive at appropriate IRR & ROI targets and based on that arrived land value. Even though it will not be 100% accurate result i.e. if developer purchase land at this price then he will generate a guaranteed profit of this much rupees. However this is most scientific and internationally accepted way of arriving land value for such ambitious project. 15 Few Recommendations: 15.1 Please ask for the latest actual measurement and boundary plans while visiting site. 15.2 Ask for designated Development Plan remarks to know about reservations and all the information necessary to carry out valuation. 15.3 Please verify as much as possible source of water & power and access as well as connectivity to main highways & rail networks, these are the main challenges a township developer generally faces. 15.4 The topography of the site plays a big role in overall valuation process. Hence please ask for land topographical survey plans. 15.5 Overall mission statement, concept plan and objectives of the development are key information a valuer should find out from the developer. 15.6 A land value depends on developable area potential as well as overall demand in that particular area. Hence market research should not be ignored while valuing land. 15.7 Master Planning and Architectural design as well as market positioning has important role in overall township development. Valuer should know all this information by discussing with developer as much in detail as possible. 15.8 Availability of debt and cost of capital significantly affect profitability as well as overall returns to the investors. Valuer should ask for the source of funding i.e. debt equity mix. ( Financial Closure ) and use of fund statements from the developer. 15.9 Tax structuring to avoid tax leakages is most important element for the entire viability of the project. Valuer should understand prevailing structures for FDI investments as well as ongoing changes in these structures. 16 Outcome and Conclusion 16.1 Based on the analysis we are of the opinion that value band for the proposed township project is in the range of Rs.350 per sq.ft. to Rs.600 per sq.ft. 16.2 We have compared above value band with prevailing rates obtained from the proposal received from investors of the similar township projects to sell the projects as well as overall market expectation. 16.3 We are of the opinion that the proposed land value is Rs.400 per sq.ft. i.e.1.74 Cr.per acre. As on date of valuation i.e. 13th June,2009. 16.4 This result in total land value of Rs.871 Crores. 16.5 We did not mentioned the detail lists of assumptions made, disclaimers, as well as documents verified or information to be received from the clients here due to shortage of space. Value Add Consultant 10/13
  • 11. Paper Presented for the seminar Dated 13th June,2009 in Rodas Hotel, Powai organized by Institution of Valuers, Mumbai Branch Table -1 Detail List of Assumptions Used for One of the Scenario to Arrive Valuation of Land Using DCF Techniques Sr.No. Assumption Unit Value Sr.No. Assumption Unit Value Remark 1 Land Area Acre 500 2 Land Area Sft 21,780,500 3 Time For Development Years 10 4 Letter of Intent Year 1 5 Total No of Phases Nos 5 6 Each Phase Years 2 Revenue Assumptions It is assumed that Loss of Built Up area due to compulsory open space, garden, play ground, roads etc will be compensated by super areas. Hence effect is nullified. 7 Types of Development Area Sale Rate Unit Escalation Unit 8 Basic Residential % 40 3,500 Rs.Per Sft 5% Per Annum 9 Premium Residential % 15 4,200 Rs.Per Sft 5% Per Annum 10 Luxurious Residential % 5 5,880 Rs.Per Sft 5% Per Annum 11 Commercial Space for Sale % 20 5,000 Rs.Per Sft 7% Per Annum Phase II 12 Retail Space for Sale % 10 7,000 Rs.Per Sft 7% Per Annum Phase II 13 Commercial Space for Lease % 5 25.00 Rs.Per Sft Per Month 7% Per Annum Phase II 14 Retail Space for Lease % 5 50 Rs.Per Sft Per Month 7% Per Annum Phase II 15 Amenity/Other Area Lease Rate % 10 22.5 Rs.Per Sft Per Month 7% Per Annum Phase II Revenue Receipt Plan INR Phase I II III IV V 16 Basic Residential 10% 45% 45% - - 17 Premium Residential 50% 50% - - 18 Luxurious Residential 5% 25% 45% 25% - 19 Commercial Space for Sale 10% 25% 40% 25% - 20 Retail Space for Sale 20% 35% 20% 15% 10% 21 Commercial Space for Lease - 40% 30% 20% 10% 22 Retail Space for Lease - 10% 25% 40% 25% 23 Amenity/Other Area Lease Rate - 25% 40% 35% 0% Costs ( Avearage for Entier Duration inclusive of Escalation by Max Price Contracts) INR Phase I II III IV V 24 Approval Costs Sft 150 91% 2% 2% 2% 3% 25 Consultant Fees Sft 150 30% 20% 20% 20% 10% 26 Marketing Costs on 80% of total revenue % 2% 9% 15% 50% 20% 6% 27 Cost of Infrastructure Development Sft 300 60% 10% 10% 10% 10% 28 Cost of Amenity( other area) Development Sft 1,200 2.50% 32.50% 40% 25% 29 Cost of Branding on 80% of total revenue % 3% 9% 15% 50% 20% 6% 30 Cost of Construction for Basic Residential Flats Sft 1,500 25.00% 52.50% 22.50% - - 31 Cost of Construction for Premium Residential Flats Sft 1,700 10% 60% 30% - - 32 Cost of Construction for Luxurious Residential Flats Sft 2,000 - 5% 35% 45% 15% 33 Cost of Construction for Commercial Space for Lease Sft 2,000 10% 30% 25% 20% 5% Value Add Consultant 11/13
  • 12. Paper Presented for the seminar Dated 13th June,2009 in Rodas Hotel, Powai organized by Institution of Valuers, Mumbai Branch 34 Cost of Construction for Commercial Space for Sale Sft 1,800 2.50% 12.50% 30% 37.50% 17.50% 35 Cost of Construction for Retail Space for Lease Sft 1,700 5% 37.50% 27.50% 22.50% 7.50% 36 Cost of Construction for Retail Space for Sale Sft 1,500 30% 30.00% 15.00% 20% 5% Lease Capitalisation Rate 37 Capitalisation Rate for Sale of Commercial Portfolio in Phase – IV 10% 38 Capitalization Rate for Sale of Commercial Portfolio in Phase – V 8% 39 Capitalisation Rate for Sale of Retail Portfolio in Phase - IV Sale 8% 40 Capitalisation Rate for Sale of Retail Portfolio in Phase - V 8% 41 Capitalisation Rate for Sale of Amenity Portfolio in Phase IV 12.50% 42 Capitalisation Rate for Sale of Amenity Portfolio in Phase V 10% Table – 2 Projected Cash Flow Statement For One of the Scenario Considered for the Township in Phase wise manner 21,780,500 Sft Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 500 Acres % Phase – I Phase – II Phase – III Phase – IV Phase - V Revenue from Sale of Basic Residential 40 % - - 3,049,270,000 6,403,467,000 8,404,550,438 12,354,689,143 3,706,406,743 - - - - Revenue from Sale of Premium Residential 15 % - - - 2,881,560,150 4,538,457,236 6,353,840,131 1,667,883,034 - - - - Flats Revenue from Sale of Luxurious Flats 5% - - - - 294,159,265 617,734,457 972,931,770 1,362,104,478 1,787,762,127 1,501,720,187 394,201,549 Net Revenue from Lease of Commercial 5% - - 65,341,500 135,256,905 210,066,388 255,805,438 304,746,222 52,366,638 111,173,988 - Revenue from Sale of Commercial 20 % - - - 816,768,750 873,942,563 1,870,237,084 3,001,730,519 4,282,468,874 7,629,703,914 3,677,248,961 3,957,192,119 Net Revenue from Lease of Retail Space 5% - - - 65,341,500 275,087,715 312,492,457 495,448,657 97,881,567 254,981,482 313,788,832 376,712,697 Revenue from Sale of Retail Space 10 % - - 1,524,635,000 1,631,359,450 1,309,165,959 933,871,717 999,242,737 5,945,383,880 1,716,049,515 1,224,115,321 4,520,552,358 Net Revenue from Lease of Amenity 10 % - - - 58,807,350 310,502,808 579,816,948 909,138,108 352,373,641 635,153,488 - - Revenue from Sale of Amenity Areas 10 % - - - - - - - 7,273,104,864 - 6,351,534,883 - Total Revenue from township 100 0 0 4,573,912,000 11,922,658,216 16,141,136,280 23,232,762,655 12,008,602,344 19,618,079,937 12,076,034,724 13,179,600,961 9,248,678,827 Approval Costs 150 (1,470,183,750) (1,470,183,750) (32,670,750) (32,670,750) (32,670,750) (32,670,750) (32,670,750) (32,670,750) (32,670,750) (32,670,750) (65,341,500) Consultant Fees 150 (326,707,500) (326,707,500) (326,707,500) (326,707,500) (326,707,500) (326,707,500) (326,707,500) (326,707,500) (326,707,500) (326,707,500) 0 Marketing Costs 2% (39,040,431) (58,560,646) (78,080,862) (97,601,077) (195,202,154) (390,404,309) (585,606,463) (195,202,154) (195,202,154) (117,121,293) 0 Cost of Infrastructure Development 300 (326,707,500) (1,306,830,000) (2,286,952,500) (326,707,500) (326,707,500) (326,707,500) (326,707,500) (326,707,500) (326,707,500) (326,707,500) (326,707,500) Cost of Amenity( other Development 1,200 0 0 (65,341,500) (326,707,500) (522,732,000) (522,732,000) (522,732,000) (457,390,500) (196,024,500) 0 0 Cost of Branding 3% (58,560,646) (87,840,970) (117,121,293) (146,401,616) (292,803,232) (585,606,463) (878,409,695) (292,803,232) (292,803,232) (175,681,939) 0 Cost of Construction for Basic Residential Flats 0 (653,415,000) (1,960,245,000) (2,940,367,500) (3,920,490,000) (2,940,367,500) (653,415,000) 0 0 0 0 1,500 Cost of Construction for Premium Residential 0 0 (555,402,750) (1,388,506,875) (1,943,909,625) (1,388,506,875) (277,701,375) 0 0 0 0 Flats 1,700 Cost of Construction for Luxurious Residential 0 0 0 (54,451,250) (163,353,750) (272,256,250) (381,158,750) (490,061,250) (490,061,250) (272,256,250) (54,451,250) Flats 2,000 Value Add Consultant 12/13
  • 13. Paper Presented for the seminar Dated 13th June,2009 in Rodas Hotel, Powai organized by Institution of Valuers, Mumbai Branch Cost of Construction for Commercial Space for 2,000 0 0 (217,805,000) (435,610,000) (435,610,000) (326,707,500) (217,805,000) (217,805,000) (217,805,000) (108,902,500) 0 Lease Cost of Construction for Commercial Space for 1,800 0 0 (147,018,375) (294,036,750) (441,055,125) (735,091,875) (1,029,128,625) (1,176,147,000) (1,029,128,625) (735,091,875) (294,036,750) Sale Cost of Construction for Retail Space for Lease 1,700 0 0 (92,567,125) (370,268,500) (323,984,938) (231,417,813) (277,701,375) (231,417,813) (185,134,250) (92,567,125) (46,283,563) Cost of Construction for Retail Space 1,500 0 (163,353,750) (326,707,500) (285,869,063) (204,192,188) (163,353,750) (81,676,875) (122,515,313) (204,192,188) (81,676,875) 0 Total Cost of development & other costs (2,221,199,827) (4,066,891,616) (6,206,620,154) (7,025,905,881) (9,129,418,761) (8,242,530,085) (5,591,420,908) (3,869,428,011) (3,496,436,949) (2,269,383,607) (786,820,563) Net Cash Flow (2,221,199,827) (4,066,891,616) (1,632,708,154) 4,896,752,335 7,011,717,519 14,990,232,570 6,417,181,436 15,748,651,926 8,579,597,775 10,910,217,354 8,461,858,265 Provisional Tax @ Marginal Rate @30% (1,196,301,077) (4,497,069,771) (1,925,154,431) (4,724,595,578) (2,573,879,333) (3,273,065,206) (2,538,557,479) Net Cash Flow After Provisional Tax (2,221,199,827) (4,066,891,616) (1,632,708,154) 4,896,752,335 5,815,416,442 10,493,162,799 4,492,027,005 11,024,056,348 6,005,718,443 7,637,152,148 5,923,300,785 NPV Before Tax @ 25% 10,055,035,527 6,372,798,617 NPV Considering Provision Tax Figures Unlevered IRR Before Tax 58% 49% Land Value 10,000,000,000 10,000,000,000 Land Value Per Acre 20,000,000 20,000,000 Land Value Per Sq.ft. INR 459 INR 459 ROI 13.06% 9.14% ROI Assuming Tax Introduction of Author Mohit Mehta is founder promoter and Director of a boutique Valuation & Advisory firm, M/s. Value Add Consultant (“VAC”), India. He is member of Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyor, U.K.(MRICS). He has started his career as an engineer and then moved to valuation by joining International Property Consultant. Since then engaged in local and international real estate markets on Multi Million Dollars real estate townships or mega projects. He is registered with Income Tax Department in Immovable Property Valuer panel and Member of Institution of Valuer, India. VAC believes in sharing and spreading of knowledge as well as energy efficient sustainable practices. Apart from Bachelors Degree in Civil Engineering he holds Masters in Valuation Degree, which is accredited by Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyor, London, U.K. He has recently delivered training program, in the special certificate course in valuation, organized by Institute of Chartered Accountant (ICAI). Value Add Consultant’s recent one day seminar organized in Mumbai with Institute of Engineers was warmly appreciated by participants and guests. VAC is specialized in income producing real estate portfolio valuation as well as development project valuation and ongoing monitoring and project management. Please contact author for any queries either on GSM +91-98924 89265 or Email : vac@consultant.com Value Add Consultant 13/13