A review of key drivers of change in the next decades

1. THE ART AND SCIENCE OF
FUTURES STUDIES
Victor V. Motti
A review of key drivers of change in the next decades

2. CONTENTS
 The Art and Science of Futures Studies
 Drivers of Change
 Lifestyles in 2050

3. THE ART AND SCIENCE OF FUTURES STUDIES

4. Long Term:
30-50 Years, not next year or next business quarter
Bic Picture:
Planetary mindset, the world and big space, not my province, city, country, etc AND
multidisciplinary
Radical Change:
Tech Revolutions (Biohacking plus Artificial Intelligence), Social Upheavals (Massive
Access to Free Education/Tools of Production), Business Disruptions (End of Banking),
Major Transformations (Post Plastic Society)

5. DISCONTINUOUS CHANGE

6. THREE KEY PRINCIPLES
 a) the future is not trivial
 You need to study, to research, to investigate, to gain insight
 b) the future has priority now
 Linking a forward looking perspective to decision making in the
present time, learning plus planning, linking insight to action
 c) the future is open to critique
 There is no Future but FutureS
 Plurality and diversity of opinion are essential

7. CORPORATE FORESIGHT
FRAMING, SCANNING, FORECASTING, VISIONING,
PLANNING, ACTING
Large incumbent
companies are
slow to respond to
discontinuous
change
companies need
specific systems
to detect and
manage change

8. DRIVERS OF CHANGE
FACTORS CAUSING CHANGE, AFFECTING OR SHAPING THE FUTURE

9. FUTURE WHEEL AND INDUSTRY 4.0

10. TECH AND SOCIAL REVOLUTIONS

11. DRIVERS OF CHANGE: DATA & ENERGY &
AUTOMATION

12. CLEAN ENERGY, GREEN ECONOMY

13. AUTOMATION: ROBOTS AND AI MIGHT
REPLACE
Doctors/Surgeons,
Police,
Teachers,
Journalists,
Investment analysts,
Fund managers and traders,
Accountants, Lawyers,
Drivers and mechanics,
Sales representatives, Travel agents,
Construction workers, Managers

14. SILVER TSUNAMI

15. THE IMPACT ON JOB MARKET

16. LIFESTYLES IN 2050
A DECENTRALIZED AND AUTONOMOUS LANDSCAPE

18. THE EXPERT SAMPLE OF THE SURVEY WAS SELECTED FROM AUTHORS OF
THE RELEVANT ARTICLES IN THE FOLLOWING FORESIGHT JOURNALS AND
KEYWORD SEARCH ON ONLINE JOURNAL RESEARCH PLATFORMS. THE
RESEARCH TEAM REVIEWED THE TITLE AND ABSTRACT OF THE ARTICLES,
AND EXCLUDED ARTICLES WHICH FOCUSED TOO NARROWLY ON
TECHNICAL ASPECTS OF PARTICULAR AREAS. FROM THE SELECTED
JOURNALS, 1,200 EXPERTS WERE IDENTIFIED.
JOURNAL OF FUTURES STUDIES (300 EXPERTS)
TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE (300 EXPERTS)
FUTURES (300 EXPERTS)
WORLD FUTURES: THE JOURNAL OF NEW PARADIGM RESEARCH (100
EXPERTS)
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FORESIGHT AND INNOVATION POLICY (100
EXPERTS)
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FORECASTING (50 EXPERTS)
RISK ANALYSIS (50 EXPERTS)

19. CONSUMPTION: FOOD
 Dietary Habits: insects, convenient food, food with less variants,
artificial meat, white meat, and vegetarian and vegan diets
 Drivers: pressure due to food scarcity and the necessity to reduce
the environmental impact of food consumption, voluntary
choice due to health and environmental concerns.
 Increased concern over climate change and sustainability could
reduce the appeal and acceptability of high carbon and
resource-intensive diets such as red meat
 In urban areas, people could become more self-sufficient in
producing through roof gardens, greenhouses, algae production,
underground mushroom farming and vitro/cultured meat.

20. CONSUMPTION: MANUFACTURED
GOODS
 Demand shift and sharing: the increased adoption of 3R activities, driven by
environmental concern. 3R: repair, reuse, and recycle, sharing , and
experience-based consumption.
 Production Patterns: production may become more localized and smaller
scale, and more environmentally conscious in product design and material
use. Some examples include dramatic transformations in manufacturing and
material processing due to non-use of fossil fuels, algae-based fuels
replacing crude oil, biodegradable bioplastics replacing oil-derived plastics.
 More decentralized and distributed locally, which would make economies
more locally oriented. Mass-produced goods from factories may become
less necessary for households and community based economies. There could
be a shift away from corporate employment towards family businesses, from
multi-national brands towards local producers, and from large
manufacturers towards local 3D printing, if the technology becomes widely
available

21. INFRASTRUCTURE: MOBILITY
 advancement of mobility technology, such as automated vehicles,
electric and hybrid vehicles, and high-speed transport systems.
Apart from this, many experts forecasted shift in access and
demand, such as a drop in mobility demand related to digital
communication.
 changes in transportation mode towards mobility as a service,
sharing, and public transport.
 due to the rise of environmental concerns, more people could shift
from fossil fuel-dominated mobility to electric vehicles. With
increasingly favorable regulations, electric vehicles are considered
to become a significant mode of transportation.
 mobility-as-a-service and sharing platforms are beginning to replace
private ownership

22. INFRASTRUCTURE: HOUSING
 incorporation of renewable energy, lower environmental impacts,
and adaptability to climate change in housing. Also, smart homes,
i.e., automatic, connected homes.
 Housing is expected to change significantly due to the increased
need to adapt to extreme weather conditions
 due to rapid urbanization, the family and social units in cities could
be transformed into smaller units that require smaller living spaces
 the quality of citizen housing to incorporate local food production,
(tree) shade, ecological connectivity and outdoor social amenities
to reduce car dependence
 technological advancements would only be available to those who
could afford them