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THE EVOLVING WORLD
ORDER: IMPLICATIONS FOR
INDIA
CONC LU SI ON S PA PER May 2022
In conversation with Former Ambassador Gautam
Bambawale, Distinguished Professor, Faculty of
Humanities and Social Sciences, Symbiosis
International University

2. 2022 IMA India. All Rights Reserved
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THE RAPIDLY EVOLVING WORLD ORDER: IMPLICATIONS FOR INDIA
The backlash from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine presents new challenges for India as it charts
through an evolving world order. The liberal West is backing Ukraine but India’s choices are
not so easy. Its strategic vulnerabilities – including a legacy of military dependence on Moscow,
an ‘incomplete’ relationship with the US, and the rise of an expansionist China at its doorstep –
complicate its options. At a recent session of the IMA India CEO Forum, former Ambassador
Gautam Bambawale, Distinguished Professor at the Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences,
Symbiosis International University, provided a view on India’s current geopolitical situation.
THE FALLOUT OF RUSSIA’S WAR ON UKRAINE
Ukraine gained its independence four decades ago and has a seat
at the United Nations. Yet, Russia maintains that parts of Ukraine
have belonged to it since time immemorable. Thus, while the
West views this as an ‘invasion’ of a sovereign nation, Russia sees
it as just a ‘special military operation’ to recapture its own territory. Plainly,
though, Russia is also seeking to halt NATO’s eastward expansion –
and, in fact, had given advance warning to this effect. Scholars
have even argued that, had the US faced a similar ‘expansionism’
in its own backyard during the Cold War, it may have responded
in a similar manner.
Two competing
views of the war
India’s position on the conflict reflects a desire to balance the great
powers while furthering its own strategic goals. The USSR provided aid
to India for decades and its successor state, Russia, remains an
important military supplier. India’s position of neutrality is thus a
token of respect for a long and close bilateral relationship.
However, in a nod to the West, India has also expressed its
concerns about human rights violations, calling for an immediate
ceasefire and peace negotiations.
India will have a
tough balancing
act to play
The West has come forcefully to Ukraine’s aid by supplying arms,
and by imposing sanctions on Russia. However, no Western country
has put its own troops on the ground, or is likely to. For India, this serves
as a valuable lesson: if push comes to shove with Pakistan or
China (or both), India may not be able to rely on the West for
direct military assistance. In previous confrontations, such as with
China, India received diplomatic support but this never translated
into physical assistance.
The West will
support Ukraine
but only up to a
point…
It would be optimistic to believe that sanctions alone will bring Russia to the
negotiating table. When major powers take crucial geo-economic or
geo-military decisions, they do so after weighing costs against
benefits. Often, they are willing to endure short-term challenges
for long-term gains. For instance, when it conducted nuclear tests
in 1998, India faced heavy sanctions from both China and the
West but ultimately, this had little impact on its longer-term
growth trajectory or even its bilateral relationships. However, in
this case, Russia appears to have miscalculated, believing that it would secure
…and sanctions
alone will not stop
Russia

3. 2022 IMA India. All Rights Reserved
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a swift and decisive victory. This may prove fatal, both diplomatically
and economically.
The commercial fallout
Anti-Russian sentiment is at an all-time high and this will have a
huge impact on its economy and businesses. Many Indian SMEs
sense that they may be in a position to fill the vacuum created in
global markets by the new sanctions regime. However, while
taking advantage of this opportunity, businesses must be cautious about
which Russian firms they choose to work with. They should steer clear
of organisations that have been sanctioned but seize opportunities to
purchase assets from Western companies that are pulling out of Russia, such
as BP, the oil-and-gas major.
India must seize
the economic
opportunities that
arise, but remain
watchful
CHINA, RUSSIA AND THE WEST
There is today an intense struggle underway between a liberal,
rules-based world order (‘pax Americana’) on the one side, and an
authoritarian order, dominated by countries like China and
Russia, on the other. China’s economic and military strength have
allowed it to push forward in the South China Sea and Indo-China
border. It has also given it an upper hand in its dispute with Japan
over the Senkaku islands, and allowed it to economically coerce
Australia and South East Asia. China sees itself as Asia’s undisputed
hegemon, soon becoming the world’s hegemon. Its comprehensive national
power now closely rivals America’s, and surpasses India’s by a
factor of ~15x. In fact, the US views China as its main geopolitical
rival and is gearing up for a possible military confrontation in the
not-too-distant future.
A liberal world
order is struggling
against
authoritarianism
Within the authoritarian ‘half’ of the world, China’s steep
economic and military rise has allowed it to leapfrog Russia. In
recent years, it has become the dominant partner in what has been
a long but often-fraught relationship. Increasingly, though, the
Sino-Russian relationship has also become a co-dependent one,
which requires both countries to be strong, economically and
diplomatically. The Ukraine situation has weakened Russia but it may
also take a toll on China, which had few loyal allies to begin with.
China is now the
dominant partner
in the Sino-Russian
relationship
India strongly prefers a stable and predictable rules-based order,
but at the same time, seeks to further its own strategic goals. This
is a tricky balance, given the huge power gap between India and
China and the security issues it faces on its borders with Pakistan
and China. To narrow the Sino-Indian economic gap, India must
pursue policies that ensure annual growth of at least 9-10%.
Simultaneously, it must balance China by strengthening its
strategic partnerships with the big democracies, including the US,
France, UK, Japan and Australia. In this context, China’s military
action in Western Ladakh two years ago proved to be a strategic
blunder: it pushed India closer to the West while failing to achieve
its territorial objectives. However, the much-hyped Quad – which
could, in time, develop into a full military alliance – is currently not
Balancing China
demands a multi-
pronged approach

4. 2022 IMA India. All Rights Reserved
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much more than a grouping of democracies working on ‘softer’
issues like climate change.
Also from a longer-term perspective, it will be crucial for India to
strengthen its position in the neighbourhood. Indeed, it has
worked hard in recent years to repair ties with Bhutan and
Bangladesh, and more recently, with Nepal and Sri Lanka.
The contents of this paper are based on discussions of the India CEO Forum with former Ambassador Gautam
Bambawale, Distinguished Professor at the Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, Symbiosis International
University, Pune, in May 2022. The views expressed may not be those of IMA India. The paper, together with
a podcast version and the edited video of the session, is available on the IMA app, which can be downloaded from
the Google Playstore and Apple Appstore, as well as on the Knowledge Centre of our website www.ima-india.com.
IMA Forum members have personalised website access codes.