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Life after microservices

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This slide deck is basically my take on the future development of microservices. It is not so much a technological prediction as a tactical prediction.

It starts with taking stock of IT: Where do we come from, where are we right now and what are the trends that (most likely) will shape our future? I try to address those issues from several points of view, not necessarily creating a totally consistent picture of IT (which imo is not possible anyway), but trying to point out the most influential drivers of the past, today and the future.

Then I try to locate microservices in that picture with mutliple angles - where they blend in. Having done that, I try to show how microservices will evolve in the future based on my observations. And in order to complete the journey, based on the anticipated future of microservices, I try to give a few recommendations for microservices developers of today how to prepare for that evolution.

While - as written in the beginning - this is my take on the evolution of microservices and the voice track is missing, I still hope that it is a bit helpful and delivers some food for thought.

Veröffentlicht in: Technologie
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Life after microservices

  1. 1. Life after microservices Shifting the boundaries Uwe Friedrichsen – codecentric AG – 2014-2018
  2. 2. Uwe Friedrichsen IT traveller. Dot Connector. Cartographer of uncharted territory. Keeper of timeless wisdom. CTO and Fellow at codecentric. https://www.slideshare.net/ufried https://medium.com/@ufried @ufried
  3. 3. So, you are doing microservices
  4. 4. Yeah!
  5. 5. And you are doing Docker
  6. 6. Yeah!
  7. 7. And you are doing Kubernetes
  8. 8. Yeah!
  9. 9. And you are doing <insert your service mesh here>
  10. 10. Yeah!
  11. 11. And you are doing <insert your log solution here>
  12. 12. Yeah!
  13. 13. And you are doing <insert your monitoring solution here>
  14. 14. Yeah!
  15. 15. And you are doing <insert your tracing solution here>
  16. 16. Yeah!
  17. 17. You mastered it! You feel great! You feel prepared for the future!
  18. 18. Yeah!
  19. 19. Really? Are you prepared?
  20. 20. Eh, what?
  21. 21. Why do you ask?
  22. 22. Well, let us talk about the future ...
  23. 23. ... but first let us understand where we are
  24. 24. Understanding IT A complex structure observed from multiple viewpoints
  25. 25. Viewpoint #1 Market evolution
  26. 26. Formal part of value creation Solution: machine Dynamic part of value creation Solution: man sluggishness/low dynamic high dynamichigh dynamic The historical course of market dynamics and the recent rise of highly dynamic and complex markets The dominance of high dynamics and complexity is neither good nor bad. It‘s a historical fact. t1970/80 today Age of crafts manu- facturing Age of tayloristic industry Age of global markets 1850/1900 Spacious markets, little competition Local markets, high customi- zation Outperformers exercise market pressure over conventional companies We call the graph shown here the “Taylor Bathtub”. The “bathtub” curve Source: BetaCodex Network Associates, “Organize for complexity”, BetaCodex Network White Paper 12 & 13
  27. 27. Formal part of value creation Solution: machine Dynamic part of value creation Solution: man sluggishness/low dynamic high dynamichigh dynamic The historical course of market dynamics and the recent rise of highly dynamic and complex markets The dominance of high dynamics and complexity is neither good nor bad. It‘s a historical fact. t1970/80 today Age of crafts manu- facturing Age of tayloristic industry Age of global markets 1850/1900 Spacious markets, little competition Local markets, high customi- zation Outperformers exercise market pressure over conventional companies We call the graph shown here the “Taylor Bathtub”. Pre-industrial era Source: BetaCodex Network Associates, “Organize for complexity”, BetaCodex Network White Paper 12 & 13 Tailor-made solutions Mastery is key to success
  28. 28. Formal part of value creation Solution: machine Dynamic part of value creation Solution: man sluggishness/low dynamic high dynamichigh dynamic The historical course of market dynamics and the recent rise of highly dynamic and complex markets The dominance of high dynamics and complexity is neither good nor bad. It‘s a historical fact. t1970/80 today Age of crafts manu- facturing Age of tayloristic industry Age of global markets 1850/1900 Spacious markets, little competition Local markets, high customi- zation Outperformers exercise market pressure over conventional companies We call the graph shown here the “Taylor Bathtub”. Industrial era Source: BetaCodex Network Associates, “Organize for complexity”, BetaCodex Network White Paper 12 & 13 Cost-efficiently scale production Getting more done with less people is key to success
  29. 29. Formal part of value creation Solution: machine Dynamic part of value creation Solution: man sluggishness/low dynamic high dynamichigh dynamic The historical course of market dynamics and the recent rise of highly dynamic and complex markets The dominance of high dynamics and complexity is neither good nor bad. It‘s a historical fact. t1970/80 today Age of crafts manu- facturing Age of tayloristic industry Age of global markets 1850/1900 Spacious markets, little competition Local markets, high customi- zation Outperformers exercise market pressure over conventional companies We call the graph shown here the “Taylor Bathtub”. Post-industrial era Source: BetaCodex Network Associates, “Organize for complexity”, BetaCodex Network White Paper 12 & 13 Continuously respond to changing demands Continuous market adaption is key to success
  30. 30. Key drivers Pre-industrial era •  No clear driver Industrial era •  Cost-efficiency •  Scalability •  Repeatability •  Stability •  Efficiency & scale Post-industrial era •  Cycle times •  Adaptability •  Flexibility •  Resilience •  Effectiveness & speed
  31. 31. Viewpoint #2 IT evolution
  32. 32. 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Complicated (Business functions) Complex (Business processes) Highly complex (Business nervous system) Software crisis Software engineering PC LAN Internet Business Support of IT Selective Holistic Complicated Complex “Moore’s law” Mobile IoT
  33. 33. IT has changed a lot over the decades ...
  34. 34. 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Complicated (Business functions) Complex (Business processes) Highly complex (Business nervous system) Software crisis PC LAN Internet Business Support of IT Selective Holistic Complicated Complex “Moore’s law” Mobile IoT Software engineering ... but still we strive to control our IT of today ... ... based on the concepts we developed for an IT almost 50 years ago
  35. 35. Formal part of value creation Solution: machine Dynamic part of value creation Solution: man sluggishness/low dynamic high dynamichigh dynamic The historical course of market dynamics and the recent rise of highly dynamic and complex markets The dominance of high dynamics and complexity is neither good nor bad. It‘s a historical fact. t1970/80 today Age of crafts manu- facturing Age of tayloristic industry Age of global markets 1850/1900 Spacious markets, little competition Local markets, high customi- zation Outperformers exercise market pressure over conventional companies We call the graph shown here the “Taylor Bathtub”. Remember the “bathtub” curve? Source: BetaCodex Network Associates, “Organize for complexity”, BetaCodex Network White Paper 12 & 13
  36. 36. 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Complicated (Business functions) Complex (Business processes) Highly complex (Business nervous system) Software crisis Software engineering PC LAN Internet Business Support of IT Selective Holistic Complicated Complex “Moore’s law” Mobile IoT Also the business we support with IT today ... ... is very different from the business we supported back then
  37. 37. What is the role of IT today?
  38. 38. IT today is ... •  ... the nervous system of the business •  ... an enabler of (disruptive) new business models •  ... an integral part of the business model (“digitization”) •  ... the medium for the continuous customer communication
  39. 39. Viewpoint #3 Technology evolution
  40. 40. Disruptive technologies 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Mainframe Transistor Multitasking UNIX Server Personal Computer Notebook
  41. 41. Disruptive technologies Assembly language 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Mainframe Transistor Multitasking High-level language Algol Lisp Simula Cobol UNIX Server Personal Computer Standard Software OSS Notebook
  42. 42. Disruptive technologies Assembly language 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Mainframe Transistor Multitasking High-level language Algol Lisp Simula Cobol UNIX Server LAN Personal Computer Standard Software OSS WWW Notebook Mobile networks (3G+) Wi-Fi Modem 9600+ Baud
  43. 43. Disruptive technologies Assembly language 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Mainframe Transistor Multitasking High-level language Algol Lisp Simula Cobol UNIX Server LAN Personal Computer Standard Software OSS WWW Notebook Smartphone Mobile networks (3G+) Tablet Wi-Fi Modem 9600+ Baud
  44. 44. Disruptive technologies Assembly language 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Mainframe Transistor Multitasking High-level language Algol Lisp Simula Cobol UNIX Server LAN Personal Computer Standard Software OSS WWW Notebook Smartphone Cloud Mobile networks (3G+) Big Data Tablet Wi-Fi SaaS Serverless FaaS + Managed services Modem 9600+ Baud
  45. 45. Disruptive technologies Assembly language 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Mainframe Transistor Multitasking High-level language Algol Lisp Simula Cobol UNIX Server LAN Personal Computer Standard Software OSS WWW Notebook Smartphone Cloud Mobile networks (3G+) Big Data Tablet Wi-Fi SaaS Serverless FaaS + Managed services PLC Industrial PC OPC UA IoT Modem 9600+ Baud
  46. 46. Disruptive technologies Assembly language 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Mainframe Transistor Multitasking High-level language Algol Lisp Simula Cobol UNIX Server LAN Personal Computer Standard Software OSS WWW Notebook Smartphone Cloud Mobile networks (3G+) Big Data Tablet Wi-Fi SaaS Serverless FaaS + Managed services PLC Industrial PC OPC UA IoT Modem 9600+ Baud
  47. 47. Viewpoint #4 Programming model evolution
  48. 48. Programming models DIY Do It yourself Web applications Enterprise Frameworks CORBA, SOA, JEE, .net, ... IoT Serverless FaaS + Managed services Cloud native Microservices ? Libraries & Frameworks Embedded computing Standard software customization HPC High Performance Computing Local computing paradigm Distributed computing paradigm
  49. 49. Where do we need microservices?
  50. 50. Key drivers Pre-industrial era •  No clear driver Industrial era •  Cost-efficiency •  Scalability •  Repeatability •  Stability •  Efficiency & scale Post-industrial era •  Cycle times •  Adaptability •  Flexibility •  Resilience •  Effectiveness & speed
  51. 51. 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Complicated (Business functions) Complex (Business processes) Highly complex (Business nervous system) Software crisis Software engineering PC LAN Internet Business Support of IT Selective Holistic Complicated Complex “Moore’s law” Mobile IoT
  52. 52. Programming models DIY Do It yourself Web applications Enterprise Frameworks CORBA, SOA, JEE, .net, ... IoT Serverless FaaS + Managed services Cloud native Microservices ? Libraries & Frameworks Embedded computing Standard software customization HPC High Performance Computing Local computing paradigm Distributed computing paradigm
  53. 53. Another, related point of view
  54. 54. Taking this “magic triangle” ...
  55. 55. Good Fast Cheap Optimizing for quality and cycle times will result in higher costs Optimizing for quality and costs will result in long cycle times Optimizing for cycle times and costs will result in reduced quality
  56. 56. ... will lead you to this model
  57. 57. You may pick two Good Fast Cheap Industrial IT Deliver large batches at minimized costs towards slow markets Post-industrial IT Quickly adapt to ever-changing needs of dynamic, fast-moving markets Startup IT Test hypotheses and pivot as fast as possible to discover a product-market fit
  58. 58. You may pick two Good Fast Cheap Industrial IT Deliver large batches at minimized costs towards slow markets Post-industrial IT Quickly adapt to ever-changing needs of dynamic, fast-moving markets Startup IT Test hypotheses and pivot as fast as possible to discover a product-market fit
  59. 59. Where do we go from here?
  60. 60. Understanding current IT trends Complementing the picture
  61. 61. Meta-Trend #1 Digitization (whatever that means ...)
  62. 62. Digitization (Definition) •  Blurry and misleading term – yet an important change driver •  Response to market demands and technology evolution •  Core: IT becomes integral part of business offerings •  Consequence: Cross-domain boundaries start to dissolve and leverage – currently still unknown – business models
  63. 63. Digitization (Effect) •  Uncertainty regarding business model viability •  Effect: Short iterations, pervasive metrics (incl. measuring outcome), A/B testing, smart rollout strategies, ... •  Dissolving domain boundaries •  Effect: API, platforms, ... •  Adaption of persistent requirements to a new context •  Effect: Poor connectivity as a constraint, re-thinking accessibility, “developer experience” on the API level, ...
  64. 64. Meta-Trend #2 Customer expectations
  65. 65. Customer expectations •  Great user experience (UX) •  Fast response times •  Multi-device capabilities •  Zero downtime •  Strong Security (regarding data privacy) •  Adapts to customer’s needs and demands
  66. 66. Resulting IT trends
  67. 67. Moving fast •  Minimize cycle times to accelerate the feedback loop •  Response to business model uncertainty •  Goal is to minimize idle and value-reducing performances •  Massive paradigm shift (“Re-thinking IT”) That is what DevOps actually is about!
  68. 68. Focus on frontends •  The battle for customers gets decided in the frontend •  Backends just need to work and must not get in the way •  UX and UI design become key differentiators •  Backend becomes commodity •  Bear all types of frontends in mind (incl. IoT, API, ...)
  69. 69. Cloud-native and serverless •  Reduce vertical integration depth •  Focus on value-creating IT performance to move faster •  Newest incarnation of “make or buy” •  Managed services as successor of standard software •  FaaS to orchestrate managed services •  Managed container and batch jobs for deep business logic
  70. 70. Ambient computing •  Shift towards human-centered user interfaces •  Complemented by context-aware computing & UIs •  “Mobile first” is just a transitional step •  New types of human-machine interaction •  Voice, gestures, tactile, ... •  Augmented by AR & VR interface capabilities
  71. 71. InfoSec •  Indispensable supplement for most needed technologies •  Cloud •  Wireless •  IoT •  Mobile •  ... •  Must be an integral part of all stages of the IT value chain
  72. 72. IT enabled trends
  73. 73. IT enabled trends Artificial intelligence / deep learning Internet of Things (including industry 4.0) Maker movement (including 3D printing) Blockchain •  Currently hyped topics with disruptive potential •  Actual future impact not yet clearly foreseeable
  74. 74. What does this mean for microservices?
  75. 75. Microservices as a transitional step •  Important architectural support step towards moving fast •  Yet, really hard to master •  Understanding effects of distributed systems is hard •  Supporting increased production needs is hard •  Mastering additional deployment and production tools is hard •  Often overstrained the people involved •  Promise of going a lot faster often not met •  Instead created a new development and production hell à Need to reduce intellectual load without slowing down
  76. 76. Reducing intellectual load •  Going serverless •  Infrastructure as managed services •  Deployment and production tools as managed services •  Most business logic as managed services (or be moved to the frontend) •  Orchestration of managed services via FaaS •  Few remaining self-programmed (micro)services, run as managed containers à Reduced vertical integration depth while going faster
  77. 77. Consequences of going serverless •  Implementing and operating the infrastructure, deployment and production tools will become irrelevant •  Knowing the managed service offerings will become crucial •  Understanding the underlying concepts will still be important •  Backend development overall will become less relevant •  Frontend development (incl. ambient) will become essential à Microservices will mostly dissolve into serverless over time
  78. 78. What does this mean for me?
  79. 79. Staying ahead of the curve Some recommendations augmenting your path ahead
  80. 80. Go frontend ... •  Learn JavaScript – really! •  Embrace the concepts of UX and UI design •  Understand CSS at least a bit •  Start picking up the concepts of ambient computing •  Voice-based UI, Video-based UI, AR, VR, etc.
  81. 81. ... or go serverless ... •  Understand and learn what “cloud” means today! •  Understand the concepts of “serverless” •  Know the relevant managed service offerings (BaaS/SaaS) •  Automate everything using managed services •  Understand operation needs (especially monitoring) ... •  ... and what existing solutions (managed services) offer •  Abandon DIY and NIH •  Actively reduce vertical integration depth
  82. 82. ... or try a different direction •  Smart Data & AI (incl. deep learning) •  Will heavily shape future decision making processes •  Be prepared to refresh your math •  Smart Devices •  Fast and wild evolution at the moment •  Lots of exciting challenges – and lots of grassroots coding ;) •  InfoSec •  Needed everywhere – yet treated often like an unloved chore •  Must become an integral part of development and operations
  83. 83. Any helpful recommendations besides the pure microservices part?
  84. 84. Understand post-industrial markets •  Speed trumps perfection – Rethink everything! •  Really, really understand the implications of uncertainty! •  Understand the difference between output and outcome •  Understand the ideas of bets and options •  Dismiss cargo-cult agility – learn what “Agile” really means •  It is a revolution in your head! •  But it should be an evolution regarding implementation •  Otherwise you will certainly overstrain your organization
  85. 85. Cross-functional teams (organized by business capabilities) Autonomy (incl. E2E responsibility) Decentralized control Microservices Continuous Delivery Heterogeneity Cloud and Containers Resilience Operations automation Craftsmanship & mastery Outcome-driven Beyond budgeting Feature flow Lean EAM Continuous improvement T-Shaped people (being empathic) DevOps Quick feedback loops Curiosity
  86. 86. Master the timeless wisdom •  Especially master the foundations of good design •  “Loose coupling, high cohesion” & “separation of concerns” •  “Information hiding” especially with respect to API •  Domain-driven design can be a useful starting point •  Good design skills are more relevant than ever •  Affect understandability, changeability and extensibility •  Affect usability, stability and acceptance at API level •  Affect robustness, availability and scalability at runtime
  87. 87. “I would advise students to pay more attention to the fundamental ideas rather than the latest technology. The technology will be out-of-date before they graduate. Fundamental ideas never get out of date.” -- David L. Parnas (http://www.sigsoft.org/SEN/parnas.html)
  88. 88. Become T-shaped •  Generalists trump specialists •  Pure subject matter experts are an industrial concept •  Collaboration requires understanding your collaborators •  Leave your comfort zone once in a while •  Still, have your area of expertise •  Deep knowledge is still needed – but in a inclusive way •  Understand the business domain •  This is what turns you into a “ten times developer”
  89. 89. Embrace distributed systems “(Almost) every system is a distributed system” -- Chas Emerick “Everything fails, all the time” -- Werner Vogels •  Understand the non-determinism of distributed systems •  “Memory, guesses and apologies” & promise theory •  Understand that infrastructure cannot guarantee robustness •  Understand what distributed system really mean!
  90. 90. Wrap-up
  91. 91. Wrap-up •  Post-industrialism as driver for moving fast •  Microservices as backing, but challenging architectural style •  Serverless as the next consistent evolutionary step •  Frontends become crucial •  Backends become commodity •  Timeless design wisdom is more relevant than ever •  Data/AI, IoT and InfoSec as alternative directions
  92. 92. The only constant is change
  93. 93. An exciting future lies ahead of us ...
  94. 94. ... let us shape it together!
  95. 95. Timeless wisdom never goes out of style
  96. 96. Uwe Friedrichsen IT traveller. Connecting the dots. Attracted by uncharted territory. CTO at codecentric. https://www.slideshare.net/ufried https://medium.com/@ufried @ufried

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