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Investment Strategy GuideWealth Management Research2011 OutlookOn schedule, but over budgetGlobal recovery on trackEquitie...
Contents                                             Video Feature (electronic version only) ............................ ...
2011 Outlook                                  Dear Reader,                                  As 2010 draws to a close, a ne...
Focus2011 Outlook: On schedule, but over budgetDespite a broad rebound in markets                                    contr...
Focusmonetary policy stance support higher equity prices over                      That’s not to suggest however, that the...
Focusand ongoing balance sheet repair process suggest that                trade at a price/earnings multiple of 12.7x – we...
FocusMore bullish but with a bias                                             tunity to time those shi s to bene t most fr...
Focus• Policy tightening within emerging markets: Con-                                    Should the atmosphere on Capitol...
Focusreinvigorating housing activity, encouraging bank lend-      Fig. 11: Corporate spreads still higher than usualing, b...
Will...May...Won’t?15 developments for 2011In last year’s Outlook report, we o ered up our in-           deter any further...
Will...May...Won’tPentagon 9/11 attacks, the threat of further strikes will      sessment sectors, it is possible that a g...
Will...May...Won’ttime, there are increased tensions on the trade front as       purchases of Treasury debt, as in ation e...
Will...May...Won’tpledges by Tea Party candidates, little meaningful prog-         4. Commodity prices will not collapse:r...
Our Best Ideas at a GlanceThe following list represents investment strategy recommendations that WMR believes will provide...
Asset Allocation Overview Asset Allocation Overview                                                                       ...
Washington WatchThe ght for scal leadershipThe 112th session of Congress promises to be very                              ...
Washington Watchthe ght could be brutal and the government could come            mandate for the Fed to seek full employme...
18   2011 Outlook
Market ScenariosIn the tables below, we discuss four potential market scenarios for 2011 and assign a probability to each....
US Economic OutlookUS consumer comeback as growth engineWith the boost to production from inventory re-                   ...
Global Economic OutlookThe big divideThe recovery in Europe stands on more solid                         pressures could c...
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Outlook 2011

  1. 1. Investment Strategy GuideWealth Management Research2011 OutlookOn schedule, but over budgetGlobal recovery on trackEquities set to outperformFiscal risks remain at the forefrontab
  2. 2. Contents Video Feature (electronic version only) ............................ . . . . . . . . . . . 1Publication details Focus: On Schedule, But Over Budget .......................... . . . . . . . . . . . 4PublisherUBS Financial Services Inc. Will...May...Won’t.................................................. . . . . . . . . . . 10Wealth Management Research1285 Avenue of the Americas, 13th Floor Our Best Ideas....................................................... . . . . . . . . . 14New York, NY 10019 Asset Allocation Overview........................................ . . . . . . . . . 15This report has been prepared by UBSFinancial Services Inc. (“UBS FS”) and UBS Washington Watch ................................................ . . . . . . . . . . 16AG. Please see important disclaimer anddisclosures at the end of the document. Market Scenarios .................................................. . . . . . . . . . . 19This report was published on Economic Outlook ................................................. . . . . . . . . . . 208 December 2010. Financial Market Performance ................................... . . . . . . . . . 23Editor in ChiefStephen Freedman Asset Classes ........................................................ . . . . . . . . . 24EditorMarcy Tolko Foreign Exchange................................................... . . . . . . . . . 27Authors International Markets ............................................. . . . . . . . . . 28Mike RyanStephen Freedman US Equities........................................................... . . . . . . . . . 32Katherine KlingensmithThomas Berner US Fixed Income ................................................... . . . . . . . . . . 37Brian RoseJeremy Zirin Commodities ........................................................ . . . . . . . . . 42David Le owitzJoe Sawe Alternative Investments ........................................... . . . . . . . . . 43Anne BrigliaBarry McAlinden Detailed Asset Allocation ......................................... . . . . . . . . . 45Donald McLauchlanKathleen McNamara Portfolio Analytics.................................................. . . . . . . . . . 47Michael TagliaferroDominic Schnider Additional Asset Allocation Models ............................ . . . . . . . . . . 48Project ManagementPaul Leeming Tactical Asset Allocation Performance Measurement ........ . . . . . . . . . 51John BellomoChris Protasewich Disclaimers/Disclosures ........................................... . . . . . . . . . . 53Desktop PublishingGeorge StilabowerCourtney LeshkoA new look... Video feature: To watchWe welcome your feedback on the new Chief Investment Strategistdesign of this report. Email us: wmrfeed- Mike Ryan give a summary ofback@ubs.com the 2011 Outlook report, please click here. Investment Strategy Guide December 2010 1
  3. 3. 2011 Outlook Dear Reader, As 2010 draws to a close, a new year will soon be upon us, presenting fresh hopes, fears, opportunities and challenges for investors. Will the year ahead mark a continuation of the economic and nancial healing process that started in the latter part of 2009 and progressed steadily through 2010? Or will the recovery prove eeting and give way to renewed weakness and market volatility? Can equity markets continue grinding higher amid relative modest Mike Ryan valuations and still solid earnings growth? Or will the absence of top-line growth and renewed concerns over debt problems in the developed world weigh on risk assets once again? With the Fed having already taken extraordinary measures to re ate the econ- omy and stabilize markets, there is some concern that policymakers are simply running out of options to keep things rolling along. Meanwhile, the change of Congressional leadership in Washington following the midterm elections ushers in a new era on Capitol Hill that could yet devolve into stalemate and dysfunc- tion. Finally, there are prospects for rising tensions across the globe ranging from Stephen Freedman trade disputes and hostile border clashes to possible proliferation of nuclear weapons.Coming in January But despite these challenges, nancial markets have endured, companies have adapted and the global economy has demonstrated both its exibility and resil-The Decade Ahead iency. Markets have normalized amid the aggressive steps taken by policymakersUBS will continue the outlook and are poised to generate fair returns over the next 12 months. Corporateconversation in January with America is once again in the business of reinventing itself and has emergedour rst ever outlook on the from the nancial crisis leaner, more ef cient and more pro table. Finally, thedecade ahead. In this new emerging markets continue to create opportunities that will yield economicreport, the global researchteam examines potential and nancial bene ts across the globe.trends, opportunities and risksthat could impact individual We are entering the new year with a constructive outlook on risk assets —investors over the next ten equities in particular. While we want to remain fully informed of the risks, weyears. also want to be properly positioned to take advantage of the opportunities that are certain to present themselves both within and across nancial markets in the year ahead. Have a happy, healthy and prosperous new year. Mike Ryan, CFA Stephen Freedman, PhD, CFA Chief Investment Strategist Head, Investment Strategy Head, Wealth Management Research – Americas Wealth Management Research – Americas Investment Strategy Guide December 2010 3
  4. 4. Focus2011 Outlook: On schedule, but over budgetDespite a broad rebound in markets contributed to periodic setbacks in risk assets during thisduring 2010, we opt to extend our past year. So as the economy progresses from the initial fragile phase of the rebound to the more stable stage ofpreference for risk assets by shifting the expansion, risk assets are likely to outperform.back to an overweight in equities and Still, it’s important to keep in mind that this recovery hasretaining an overweight in credit within come with a pretty he y price tag. Budget de cits across xed income. The recent sharp run-up in the developed world have surged amid a combination ofequity markets, concerns over European falling tax receipts, expensive bailouts of the private sec- tor and aggressive stimulus measures. In a number ofsovereign debt and uncertainties developed countries, the government debt-to-GDP ratioassociated with a new Congress could has risen to levels that pose serious threats to sovereignprompt a temporary pullback. However, credit ratings (see Fig. 2). This suggests that scal belt- tightening is now in order. But policymakers will need towe would view that as an opportunity strike the right balance between the need to reduce de -to add to positions given our more cits and the need to sustain growth. Move too slowly, and some of the dif culties that weighed heavily on theconstructive intermediate-term outlook. eurozone could become even broader. Move too quickly,We look for the economic recovery process to remain on though, and the extraordinary measures put in place overschedule in the year ahead, as lingering cyclical chal- the past three years to re ate the economy and stabilizelenges continue to give way to a more sustainable expan- nancial markets will all have been for naught.sion. Progress will still be uneven, however, as strong de-mand drivers translate into above-trend growth within Against this backdrop, we express our preference for riskthe emerging markets while ongoing balance sheet re- assets by moving back to an overweight in equities andpair dampens growth prospects in the developed world shi ing to an underweight in bonds. While stocks could(see Fig. 1). This slow but steady improvement in the come under some pressure early in 2011 amid uncertain-macro backdrop is still likely to be greeted with both ties on the domestic political front and fears of a broad-relief from elected of cials and cautious optimism on the ening of the EU debt crisis, elevated risk premiums, stillpart of investors. Fears of a double-dip recession solid earnings prospects and an accommodativeFig. 1: Economic growth being driven by emerging markets Fig. 2: Public debt serious threat to sovereign credit ratingsUBS GDP growth forecasts for 2011, in % Gross public debt in % of GDP 2010 Japan10 Italy Greece 8 Belgium France 6 US Portugal 4 UK Germany 2 Ireland Austria 0 Netherlands Japan Eurozone UK US World India China Spain 0 50 100 150 200Source: UBS WMR, as of 6 December 2010 Source: OECD and UBS WMR, as of 6 December 20104 2011 Outlook
  5. 5. Focusmonetary policy stance support higher equity prices over That’s not to suggest however, that the macro outlook isthe balance of 2011. Nevertheless, given the challenges completely devoid of threats or challenges. As we note inon the scal side – especially within the eurozone – we the “15 developments for 2011” section, we do not seecontinue to overweight emerging markets versus the de- any meaningful recovery in housing this year. In fact, weveloped world. Although emerging markets are trading look for home prices to decline by 5% in light of a heavyabove their historical valuation levels relative to the devel- backlog of unsold homes, continued incidence of foreclo-oped markets (see Fig. 3), we still see room for outperfor- sure activity and negative housing equity conditions (seemance. In the xed income markets, we retain our over- Fig. 5). While we do not look for signi cant progress onweight on credit versus government paper as strong de cit reduction and expect the Bush tax cuts to be fullycorporate balance sheets and lower default rates support extended for the next two years – in line with the agree-further compression in credit spreads. ment recently struck between President Obama and con- gressional Republicans – there will still be some scalUneven but durable growth prospects drag over a winding down of stimulus spending. AndAs we’ve already noted, the economic growth prospects although lending standards are clearly easing, credit con-between the developed and developing world remain ditions have not fully normalized, which suggests thatuneven in the a ermath of the global nancial crisis and banks will still be selective in extending credit to smallassociated recession. However, the recovery in the US businesses and consumers. Overall, our economics teamappears to have progressed into a more durable expan- is forecasting a still below trend GDP growth rate ofsion. The deleveraging in the consumer sector has paused about 2.7% for the US in 2011.for now with the savings rate leveling out at just belowthe 6% mark (see Fig. 4). Meanwhile, employment pros- Outside the US, the growth dynamic also remains bifur-pects show some signs of improvement as business con - cated. According to our global economics team, Japan isdence strengthens amid an easing of credit conditions expected to slow the most among the non-US developedand some increased visibility on the regulatory and tax nations, with growth decreasing by more than half, fromfronts. The extraordinary policy measures put in place by 3.5% this past year to just 1.4% in 2011. But some so -the Fed – including an expanded commitment to quanti- ening is also likely in emerging economies, where growthtative easing – will also serve to buttress growth as still is expected to decelerate from 6.1% in 2010 to 5.6% inlow-debt servicing costs and rising disposable income 2011, with China once again leading the way with GDPalso allow for a higher level of consumer spending. growth of 9%. The lingering e ects of the credit crisisFig. 3: Still reasonable valuations for Emerging Market Equities Fig. 4: Deleveraging of consumer sector has paused for nowP/E ratio on forward 1-year consensus EPS estimates US personal saving as a % of disposable personal income 25 8 20 6 15 10 4 5 2 0 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 0 World Emerging Markets 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010Source: Thomson Datastream and UBS WMR, as of 6 December 2010 Source: Bloomberg and UBS WMR, as of 6 December 2010 Investment Strategy Guide December 2010 5
  6. 6. Focusand ongoing balance sheet repair process suggest that trade at a price/earnings multiple of 12.7x – well belowthe world economy is unlikely to reduce much of the ex- the long-term average of 15x seen during the past 20cess capacity built up during the recession (see Fig. 6). As years (see Fig. 8). While we’re not looking for a signi -a result, slack in labor and capital should ease only grad- cant re-rating in stocks, some modest expansion in mul-ually, suggesting that in ation pressures remain excep- tiples coupled with still solid earnings growth shouldtionally well-contained across the globe — with the ex- yield above-average returns for 2011. Equity market valu-ception of a few regional hot spots within emerging ation is even more compelling when measured againstmarkets. the relatively meager returns available for bonds and cash. It must be noted that equity risk premiums cur-The wages of fear and greed rently stand at abnormally high levels which suggestsThe economic outlook matters, of course, since fears of a equity outperformance in the year ahead (see Fig. 9).double-dip recession certainly contributed to the setbacksin equity markets during 2010. It’s o en said that nan- The valuation case on the credit side is a bit less compel-cial markets are driven by two things – and two things ling. Credit risk premiums have continued to narrow asonly – fear and greed. While this is a gross oversimpli ca- default rates have trended lower, fears of a double-diption of the multitude of variables that investors must recession have abated and equity market volatility hasboth anticipate and react to when evaluating investment lessened. Spreads on investment grade corporate bondschoices, it does capture the sometimes bipolar nature of are now closing in on their longer-term historical aver- nancial markets. Keep in mind that the periodic shi s age, and are only moderately above the levels seen priorbetween the so-called “risk on” and “risk o ” trades to the crisis. Still, strong credit fundamentals and improv-de ned the top and bottom of the trading range in ing business prospects should leave corporate bonds wellstocks in 2010 (see Fig. 7). If that is the case, then equity bid. High-yield valuation is a bit more attractive, withand credit risk premiums re ect just how much market spreads that still stand above the long-term average andparticipants are being paid to hold risk assets – and what pre-crisis levels (see Fig. 10). Strong corporate balancewe may expect in returns for the year ahead. sheets, a continued need for income and a potential backing up of Treasury yields support further spreadDespite a fairly broad rebound in risk assets during both compression and outperformance in credit.2009 and 2010, valuations in both the equity and creditmarkets remain relatively attractive. US stocks currentlyFig. 5: Look for home prices to remain under pressure in 2011 Fig. 6: Plenty of excess capacity in developed economiesS&P/Case-Shiller Composite 20 Home Price Index Capacity Utilization, in % 225 90 85 200 80 175 75 150 70 65 125 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 EU Capacity Utilization US Capacity UtilizationSource: Bloomberg and UBS WMR, as of 6 December 2010 Source: Bloomberg, UBS WMR, as of 6 December 20106 2011 Outlook
  7. 7. FocusMore bullish but with a bias tunity to time those shi s to bene t most from near-termAlthough we are moving to extend our preference for volatility or strength in markets. Therefore, we will onlyrisk assets by overweighting equities, we recognize that indicate a short-term bias signal in circumstances whenthere is room for a pullback early in the year following we have a reasonable conviction that a near-term marketthe sharp run-up in equities since early November. We move is forthcoming that di ers from the general direc-therefore have introduced a new feature to our tactical tion of our tactical asset allocation recommendations.asset allocation guidance which we refer to as our“short-term bias indicator.” This indicator is intended to Gauging the riskso er some shorter-term perspective for those looking to As we’ve already noted, neither the economic outlookbetter time market entry and exit points. Not to be con- nor the return prospects within nancial markets arefused with the technical trading discipline maintained by without risk. So spots in the expansion and pullbacks inour Chief Technical Strategist, Peter Lee, these indicators equity and credit markets are therefore to be expectedare meant to simply complement the longer fundamental along the way. While many factors may have an impactview embedded within our tactical asset allocation (TAA) on both growth and market returns, we view the follow-recommendations. At present, the short-term indicator is ing issues as posing some of the more serious challenges“mixed” which suggests there is a risk of a 5-10% pull- in the year ahead:back in stocks early in 2011 (see Figs. 11 and 12). Thosewho are more sensitive to price points may, therefore, • Eurozone crisis: Although the EU/IMF aid package towish to use this indicator for timing purposes. help recapitalize Irish banks has eased immediate con- cerns over eurozone debt, the issue will continue toKeep in mind that our TAA views are intended to provide are up periodically during the year. Sovereign creditguidance over a horizon that spans a longer (9- to spreads remain at elevated levels, suggesting that pres-12-month) time frame. These views are based on our risk sures are mounting for other EU players – especiallyand return expectations over this more extended horizon, Portugal. That said, concerns over the need for a bail-and should therefore be the primary driver of tactical out of Spain, clearly the most important of the “atshi s. It remains our view that investors seek guidance risk” countries in the EU, are overblown. The scale ofover periods that span longer than just a month. How- Spain’s banking problems is not as severe as Ireland’s,ever, we also realize that the commitment of new funds and the state of scal de cit is nowhere near as acuteand the need for periodic rebalancing a ords the oppor- as Greece’s.Fig. 7: Stocks trading within a range in 2010 Fig. 8: Stocks’ P/E moderately cheapS&P 500 S&P 500 P/E ratio based on 12-month forward consensus earnings1250 251200 201150 151100 101050 51000 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 S&P 500 P/E AverageSource: Bloomberg and UBS WMR, as of 6 December 2010 Source: Bloomberg and UBS WMR, as of 6 December 2010 Investment Strategy Guide December 2010 7
  8. 8. Focus• Policy tightening within emerging markets: Con- Should the atmosphere on Capitol Hill turn especially tinued divergence in growth prospects between the toxic, this could seriously jeopardize e orts to reduce developing and developed nations suggests that mon- the budget de cit, streamline regulation and promote etary policy paths are also likely to di er. There is still an expansion in free trade. None of these would be some concern that China (among others) may be well received by nancial markets. forced to tighten policy amid increased domestic price pressures and a building asset bubble. Although the ReÎlling the punchbowl scope of emerging markets tightening operations is Former Federal Reserve Chairman William McChesney limited, any ratcheting up of these e orts could Martin, Jr. once famously quipped that the role of the threaten risk assets given continued reliance on the Fed was akin to “removing the punch bowl” just when emerging markets for growth. the party really got going. It would appear, however, that the current Fed Chair, Ben Bernanke, is charting a radi-• Municipal budget woes: Recent volatile conditions in cally di erent course. Confronted with sluggish growth, the municipal market have raised concerns over a excess productive capacity and heavy debt balances, Ber- broader set of problems at the state and local levels. As nanke has had to resort to extraordinary measures in or- we point out in the “15 developments for 2011” sec- der to re ate the economy. In addition to e ectively tion, although the general obligation debt of states maintaining a zero-interest rate policy, the Fed has also such as California or cities like New York is secure, it is initiated a second phase of quantitative easing (com- possible that a high pro le municipality could be forced monly referred to as QE2) assets. This entails the Fed pur- to defer payments on its general obligation bonds. This chasing an additional USD 600 billion in Treasury debt in would likely send a chill through nancial markets and an e ort to keep rates low and jump-start growth. In prompt some “de-risking” as participants weighed the short, Bernanke keeps re lling the punchbowl in an ef- prospects for broader defaults. fort to turn wall owers into party animals.• Political missteps: The 112th Congress will be radi- It’s dif cult to gauge whether or not these most recent cally di erent from the 111th Congress – both compo- e orts by the Fed will bear fruit. Although bond yields sitionally and ideologically. This suggests that bipartisan and the US dollar are likely lower than they would other- compromise will be harder to come by and positioning wise have been if the Fed had not engaged in QE2, it’s for political advantage could dominate the agenda. too early to tell if this will have a meaningful impact inFig. 9: Equities more attractively valued than bonds Fig. 10: Corporate spreads still higher than usualEquity risk premium (earnings yield minus real bond yield) Credit spreads on IG and HY US Corporates, in basis points15 2,000 Equities attractive10 1,500 relative to bonds 5 1,000 Equities unattractive 0 500 relative to bonds-5 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 US IG US HY Median IG Median HY US Equity Risk Premium (Forward earnings) averageSource: DataStream, Shiller and UBS WMR, as of 6 December 2010 Source: BoAML, UBS WMR, as of 6 December 20108 2011 Outlook
  9. 9. Focusreinvigorating housing activity, encouraging bank lend- Fig. 11: Corporate spreads still higher than usualing, bolstering equity prices and stimulating exports. On Short-term bias Symbol De nitionthe other hand, there is concern over the backlash that Positive We expect a short-term upwardQE2 has triggered both at home and abroad. Elected of- movement in the context of a broader ¨ range-bound market or downward trend cials are alarmed at the perceived overreach by the Fed, Sideways We expect a short-term phase ofand the new Congress could mount a more serious chal- consolidation or sideways movementlenge to the Fed’s independence. Perhaps more concern- §¨ in the context of a broader intra-year upward or downward trending is the prospect that dollar weakness prompted by Negative We expect a short-term downwardQE2 could ultimately trigger a wave of competitive cur- movement in the context of a broader ¨rency devaluations that threaten global growth prospects. range-bound market or upward trendIt may just turn out that Chairman Bernanke is unable to Source: UBS WMRkeep re lling the punch – even if the party does showsome signs of winding down. Fig. 12: Asset class preference Tactical deviations from benchmarkConclusion 9 to 12 month time hoziron Short-termAs we ponder what’s to come during the next 12 biasmonths, we recognize that new and unforeseen threats Equitywill likely emerge – but so too will opportunities. Wetherefore opt to position ourselves to best take advan- Fixed Incometage of the trend we see playing out through the balance Cashof the year by overweighting risk assets and continuingto focus on those regions, sectors and asset classes Commoditieswithin which the growth and return prospects are the ––– –– – n + ++ +++strongest. But we also stand ready to make tactical ad- Underweight Overweightjustments to our forecasts, projections or asset classweightings as they become necessary due to changing Note: Black arrows indicate changes as of this report. Thick white arrows indicate a short-fundamentals, shi s in policy stance or signi cant repric- term bias. Source: UBS WMR, as 8 December 2010ing within markets. Because while both the economy and nancial markets appear to be on smooth roads, some Fig. 13: Growth and inÏationpotholes and even an occasional detour are certain to lieahead. ’10F ’11F ’12F ’10F ’11F ’12F World 4.1 3.7 3.8 2.9 3.0 3.5 US 2.8 2.7 2.8 1.6 1.6 2.1Mike Ryan, CFA, Chief Investment Strategist Canada 2.9 2.3 2.7 1.8 2.6 2.4 Japan 3.5 1.4 2.0 –0.7 –0.3 0.4 Eurozone 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.5 1.9 2.4 UK 1.8 2.3 2.2 3.2 2.8 1.9 China 10.0 9.0 9.0 3.3 4.3 4.0 India 9.0 8.0 8.6 9.2 6.0 6.8 Russia 4.1 4.8 4.5 6.9 8.5 7.7 Brazil 7.9 5.4 5.1 5.8 5.4 4.8 Asia ex-Jp/Chi/Ind 5.3 4.3 4.3 2.7 3.2 3.2 In developing the forecasts set forth above, WMR economists worked in collaboration with economists employed by UBS Investment Research (INV). INV is published by UBS Investment Bank. Forecasts and estimates are current only as of the date of this publication and may change without notice. F: forecast, Source: UBS WMR, as of 7 December 2010 Investment Strategy Guide December 2010 9
  10. 10. Will...May...Won’t?15 developments for 2011In last year’s Outlook report, we o ered up our in- deter any further run on eurozone debt, credit defaultaugural list of the Îve developments that will, may swaps surged to new post-crisis highs for several of theand won’t happen over the following year. While more vulnerable players in the EU even a er the Irishour crystal ball was a bit o the mark on certain package was announced. While this may bring somesubjects, the overall record was fairly solid. So at relief, the respite is likely to prove only temporary. Atten-the risk of tempting the forecasting gods once tion is already shi ing to the other weak links in the EUagain, we reprise our list of developments this year. – Spain and Portugal. Given Spain’s relative importanceWe have tried to update the list to focus on those in the eurozone and Germany’s reluctance to underwritedevelopments that will likely have the greatest im- any additional rescue packages, the crisis will shi frompact on the economy, Înancial markets and policy concerns over liquidity to fears of solvency.choices in the year ahead. The list is far from com-prehensive, but it does focus on the major issues 3. Corporate cash hoarding will end:that will shape the world — at least our corner of it Confronted with limited investment opportunities and a— over the next 12 months. still uncertain economic backdrop, corporate treasurers became more cautious custodians of balance sheets over the past several years. As a result, the ratio of cash as aFive things that will happen: percentage of total assets surged to multi-decade highs.1. Equity markets will provide normalized returns: While this may have served companies well during theFollowing a year of solid if unspectacular performance, most acute phase of the nancial crisis, these large cashwe look for stocks to provide somewhat above average reserves have become less optimal as business conditionsreturns. Still solid earnings growth, undemanding valua- rebound and liquidity improves. With the focus now lesstion levels and a supportive monetary policy backdrop all on survival and more on enhancing shareholder value,suggest further solid gains in the year ahead. Some fear we look for corporations to begin deploying these cashthat the negative impact from the end of the stimulus balances more aggressively. While a fair portion will cer-spending could prompt a contraction in growth, which tainly be targeted to business investment spending andwould in turn weigh on equity prices. However, the re- strategic acquisitions, we also look for an expansion inengagement of the consumer, easing of credit conditions share buybacks and increases in dividend payouts.and an acceleration in business investment spending willlargely o set the drag from the winding down of federal 4. Geopolitical threats will intensify:spending. However, with earnings unlikely to accelerate In last year’s Outlook, we noted that geopolitical riskssharply following last year’s impressive rebound, signi - would emerge from a host of potential hot spots. Wecantly above-normal returns would require a sharp in- focused on tensions on the Korean peninsula, increasedcrease in P/E multiples. But as we note later on, the pros- belligerence on the part of Iran, Venezuela and the ongo-pects for a material re-rating of stocks in the a ermath ing con ict in Afghanistan and Iraq. This year we expectof a nancial crisis are limited. those threats to intensify and potentially even broaden. Iran is edging closer to producing enough “ ssible” ma-2. The sovereign debt crisis will grow more acute: terial to make a nuclear warhead – and procuring a deliv-Those who viewed the EU/IMF bailout of Greece as a sort ery vehicle capable of hitting Western Europe. Mean-of “ rewall” in the eurozone sovereign debt crisis must while, North Korea has engaged in open hostilitieshave been bitterly disappointed by the recent EUR 85 against South Korea in an e ort to distract attentionbillion lifeline thrown to Ireland. The need for further away from a leadership transition and a moribund econ-massive capital injections within the banking industry omy. But perhaps most troubling of all has been the dis- nally forced Ireland to submit to an EU/IMF-led bailout closure of thwarted terror attacks on cargo aircrapackage. Yet, even more disappointment lies ahead. De- bound for the US and other Western destinations. Withspite an emergency liquidity facility that was intended to 2011 marking the tenth anniversary of the WTC and10 2011 Outlook
  11. 11. Will...May...Won’tPentagon 9/11 attacks, the threat of further strikes will sessment sectors, it is possible that a general-purposeremain elevated. The risk that has recently had the big- government with a higher public pro le may default.gest e ect on markets – and one that will likely persist Several cities that have been hit particularly hard both by– is fear over the political cohesion of Europe. the national recession and regional structural decline are most vulnerable. Although the general obligation debt of5. Congress will deteriorate into gridlock: states such as California and Illinois or cities such as NewThe midterm elections ushered in an entirely new political York and Chicago is secure, municipalities like Detroitdynamic on Capitol Hill, as signi cant gains by Republi- and Harrisburg could be forced to defer payments oncans yielded a split in control of Congress. Not only does their general obligation bonds.the GOP now control the House, but the Democratic ma-jority in the Senate has been narrowed considerably. 2. The economy and corporate proÎts may surpriseWhile both sides have claimed to want to work together to the upside:to nd common ground, the prospects for meaningful Economists continue to look for sluggish growth in 2011,progress on a host of issues, ranging from climate with consensus forecasting 2.5% real US GDP growth.change legislation to immigration reform, are slim. The continued overhang from consumer deleveraging,Meanwhile, notwithstanding the recent agreement on nancial sector recapitalization and withdrawal of scalcontinuing the Bush-era tax cuts, the two parties are stimulus will certainly restrain growth prospects. How-likely to clash frequently and ercely over spending and ever, recent evidence of an improvement in business con-tax issues. While both have pledged to reduce the de cit, dence, more robust job creation despite a lacklustereach has embraced a fundamentally di erent approach. November labor market report and re-engagement of theGiven the disastrous government shutdown in the wake consumer suggests the risks are now to the upside.of the 1994 midterm elections, Republican congressional Meanwhile, companies have continued to reduce costsleaders will be reluctant to overplay their hand in a simi- as evidenced by the surprisingly strong Q3 productivitylar manner this time around, but they will struggle with gures. This combination of better top-line growth andan enthusiastic freshman class eager to eschew de cit impressive productivity gains suggest that the string ofspending. E orts to stymie funding in order to starve stronger-than-expected earnings reports could last forhealthcare reform run the risk of a similar backlash if the several more quarters as analysts have been slow to raisee ort is seen as overly heavy-handed. One of the few pro t projections.areas in which the two parties may nd common groundis trade policy. The impact on the economy could be 3. Emerging markets may stumble:damaging if Congress were to pass protectionist legisla- Most strategists, including us, continue to look for strongtion that threatened global growth. growth and solid investment returns from the emerging markets (EM) this year. We have opted to retain our over- weight as emerging market nations continue to bene tFive things that may happen: from improving global growth prospects, but face few of1. A high proÎle municipality may default: the structural headwinds confronting the developedCredit conditions within the municipal market remain world. However, there are apt to be a few stumbles andchallenging as the consequences of the nancial crisis setbacks along the way as developing nations continueand associated recession have continued to weigh on to grapple with issues ranging from the in ationary im-state and local nances. A combination of declining tax pact of increased capital in ows and a rising tide of pro-revenues, overextension of public services and under- tectionism to the uneven transition from a purely export/funded pension plans has le a number of municipalities infrastructure spending-led growth model. A number ofvulnerable to signi cant ratings downgrades and debt central banks, including China’s, have been engaged inservice interruptions. While the risk of default will remain policy tightening in an e ort to limit in ation pressuresconcentrated in the housing, healthcare and special as- and prevent asset bubbles from building. At the same Investment Strategy Guide December 2010 11
  12. 12. Will...May...Won’ttime, there are increased tensions on the trade front as purchases of Treasury debt, as in ation expectationsdeveloped nations pressure large EM countries to adopt a surged higher. Further increases in in ation fears – ormore balanced growth approach that includes encourag- greater reluctance on the part of foreigners to under-ing domestic demand. Keep in mind that EM are no lon- write US debt – could prompt additional bouts of volatil-ger trading at a deep discount to the developed world. ity, especially on the very long end of the yield curveSo if risk factors emerge or if investors simply opt to take which is not the primary focus of the Fed’s purchases.some pro ts, EM could face temporary lapses of under-performance. Five things that will not happen:4. Rising protectionism may trigger a trade war: 1. P/E multiples will not exceed long-term averages:Last year, we noted that a trade war would not break While equity markets continued to grind higher duringout, simply because it was in no one’s best interest to see 2010, the move was driven by a strong surge in corpo-global commerce contract. However, as steady economic rate pro ts, with S&P 500 earnings rebounding aroundgrowth resumes and unemployment remains elevated, 35% to USD 84 per share. Valuation multiples actuallyelected of cials are focusing once again on issues rang- contracted, with the price/earnings ratio falling froming from protracted global trade imbalances and distor- 14.2 to 12.7 times forward 12-month consensus earn-tive government subsidies to manipulative foreign ex- ings estimates. There are those who now see equitychange practices and the failure to honor property rights prices rising sharply higher as multiples expand aboveand legal contracts. These issues broadly fall under the their historical averages (roughly 15x) amid low in ation,banner of “fair trade” rather than “free trade,” and have accommodative policy and somewhat improved growthcreated a backlash in many nations struggling with slug- prospects. We rather expect multiples to remain some-gish growth prospects and stubbornly high trade de cits. what below-average in the a ermath of the nancialWhile China’s reluctance to meaningfully revalue the crisis and the uncertainty surrounding the unwinding ofremnimbi has been the most visible point of contention extraordinarily easy monetary and scal policies.with US of cials, the Fed’s own program to stimulate theeconomy by ooding the system with liquidity through 2. The housing market will not sustain a recovery:“quantitative easing” has drawn broad criticism as well. Those waiting for a recovery in the housing market willAs a result, fears that a round of competitive currency have to wait a bit longer. According to our real estatedevaluations could trigger a broader trade war can no analyst, Jon Woloshin, the backlog of unsold homes,longer be so easily dismissed. continued high level of foreclosure activity and preva- lence of negative housing equity will serve to limit recov-5. Bond market volatility may increase: ery prospects. Our economics team expects the nationalPolicymakers have made it clear that the federal funds Case-Schiller Home Price Index to decline by 5% in 2011.rate will be kept low “for an extended period” — which Keep in mind, however, that since housing activity is al-we take to mean through the rst quarter of 2012. ready at an extremely depressed level and price declinesMeanwhile, the USD 600 billion program for purchasing are likely to be manageable, continued weakness in resi-Treasury debt, which targets Treasury debt in the 5- to dential real estate won’t trigger another recession. In-10-year maturity range, will run until June — and could stead, we look for the economy to continue to expand atbe extended even longer if the Fed deems it necessary. a sluggish but relatively steady pace this year, despite theThis would seem to support the notion that any rate in- overhang from housing.creases for the coming year will be moderate in scale asthe Fed continues to play an outsized role in the bond 3. There will not be meaningful progress in deÎcitmarket. But it is precisely the Fed’s intervention that reduction:could lead to more volatile conditions in the bond mar- Despite encouraging e orts by the president’s bipartisanket. Rates rose sharply following the Fed’s initial commission on scal reform and sincere campaign12 2011 Outlook
  13. 13. Will...May...Won’tpledges by Tea Party candidates, little meaningful prog- 4. Commodity prices will not collapse:ress will be made this year on reducing the size of the In the wake of the housing-inspired global nancial crisis,budget de cit. Both parties expressed support for the there are those obsessed with identifying the next assetcommission’s e orts, with each side embracing certain bubble poised to burst. Given the sharp run-up in prices over the past two years, commodities have been cited by many (along with 2011: Five things we believe... Treasury debt, emerging markets and sports memorabilia) as the next most likely asset vulnerable to a collapse. While ...will happen ...may happen ... won’t happen certain types of industrial metals and ag- ricultural goods have gotten a bit pricey Equity markets will P/E multiples will in the near term, we do not foresee a A high proÏle munic- provide normalized not exceed long- ipality may default broad-based pullback in commodity returns term averages prices. In fact, our commodity strategist, The sovereign debt The economy and The housing market Dominic Schnider, just recently raised his crisis will grow corporate proÏts may will not sustain a target price on oil for 2011 from an aver- more acute surprise to the upside recovery age of USD 85 per barrel to an average of USD 95 per barrel, with spikes above There will not be the USD 100 mark likely in the coming Corporate cash Emerging markets meaningful progress hoarding will end may stumble year. in deÏcit reduction Rising protectionism 5. InÏation will not be a problem: Geopolitical threats Commodity prices This is another repeat performer from last may trigger a trade will intensify will not collapse war year, but needs updating because of the continued massive pump-priming exer- Congress will dete- Bond market volatil- InÐation will not be cises undertaken by the Fed. With rates riorate into gridlock ity may increase a problem already e ectively at 0%, policymakers were forced to employ more exotic mea- sures to help re ate assets, stabilize -aspects of the preliminary proposal to reduce the de cit. nancial markets and stimulate growth. This has rekindledHowever, the report did not gain enough support within fears that in ation pressures may accelerate as re ectedthe commission to be put to a vote. Neither party has yet in the sudden jump in bond yields following the initialput forth a credible plan for reducing the level of govern- stage of QE2. But while in ation expectations did indeedment outlays, reforming entitlement spending or increas- rise, they still remain low by almost any objective bench-ing tax receipts – all required for any meaningful progress mark. What’s more, with the economy still growing at aon closing the scal shortfall. Senate Republican leaders sluggish pace and the unemployment rate unlikely to fallhave pledged to eliminate the practice of congressional very sharply in the near term, price pressures are apt toearmarks which tend to in ate spending. The White remain muted. But there’s a caveat: while price pressuresHouse has proposed freezing the pay of federal employ- will remain subdued domestically, other parts of theees for two years. The e ect of both measures would be world — including China — will be grappling with in a-minimal. So while both parties have expressed willing- tion trouble spots.ness to leverage the commission’s work in the wake ofthe eurozone debt crisis, the prospects for substantive Michael P. Ryan, CFA, Chief Investment Strategistprogress in 2011 are limited, in light of the deep ideolog-ical divide in Congress. Investment Strategy Guide December 2010 13
  14. 14. Our Best Ideas at a GlanceThe following list represents investment strategy recommendations that WMR believes will provide attractiveopportunities over the next 9-12 months.Asset ClassesPreference for Equities over BondsCurrenciesPreference for minor currencies, in particular EM, commodity producers (CAD, AUD) and Euro proxies (CHF, SEK, NOK). Equities Fixed Income Current allocation: 49.0% Current allocation: 32.0% International markets Within US dollar Fixed Income • Emerging Market equities • High Yield Corporate bonds • Especially Brazil, China, Russia • Investment Grade BBB-rated and Taiwan Corporates • UK equities • Emerging Market USD sover- eigns and quasi-sovereigns, Within US equities with a preference for Mexico • Information Technology: In par- and Brazil ticular Hardware Technology and Equipment • Emerging Market USD Corpo- rates, in particular commodity • Consumer Staples: especially producers Emerging Market geared com- panies within Household and • Trust Preferred Securities Personal Products as well as Pages 30, 37 Food, Beverage and Tobacco. Alternative Investments • Within Industrials: Airfreight Current allocation: 12.0% and logistics companies • Included in portfolio for • Within Financials: Money center diversi cation purposes. banks, Brokers and Life Insurers Page 43 • Within Consumer Discretionary: Auto-related companies Commodities Current allocation: 5.0% • Within Telecom: Wireless towers and data-centers • We see upside potential for crude oil, gold and selected • Within Energy: Oil eld services agricultural commodities. companies Overweight Page 42 Neutral • Preference for Growth over Underweight Cash Value stocks Current allocation: 2.0% Pages 28, 32, 34 • Yield may be pinned near zero for another 12 months.For an explanation of current allocation, please see the note on the following page.14 2011 Outlook
  15. 15. Asset Allocation Overview Asset Allocation Overview WMR Tactical View Model Portfolio Moderate Risk Pro le (in %) Benchmark Allocation Allocation Deviation Current Tactical Change Equities Reasonable valuations make equities more attractive than the low yields o ered by bonds. We prefer Overweight 44.0 +5.0 S 49.0 emerging over developed markets. US Equities We expect solid earnings growth, but 2011 consensus estimates appear too high, leaving room for Neutral 32.0 +0.0 32.0 disappointments. US Large Cap Value Moderate Large-cap value appears less attractive than growth. Underweight 11.0 -1.5 T 9.5 US Large Cap Growth Moderate 11.0 +3.0 S 14.0 Valuations and our sector tilts suggest a preference for Growth over Value. Overweight US Mid Cap Neutral 5.0 +0.0 5.0 Expensive versus large caps. Greater M&A activity could be a positive in 2011. US Small Cap Expensive versus large caps but Ênancing conditions improving. Greater M&A activity could be a Neutral 3.0 +0.0 S 3.0 positive in 2011. US Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) Moderate Remains expensive despite underperformance in recent weeks. Fundamentals still challenging. Underweight 2.0 -1.5 T 0.5 Non-US Developed Equities We see potential in UK stocks. Eurozone valuations are attractive but sovereign debt situation creates Neutral 10.0 +0.0 S 10.0 risk. Japan not as expensive as it used to be but fundamentals are weak. Emerging Market (EM) Equities EM equities are more attractively valued than developed markets and more immune to Êscal risk. Overweight 2.0 +5.0 S 7.0 Fixed Income Low yields unattractive relative to equities. Fed may remain on hold throughout 2011, which should help Underweight 37.0 -5.0 T 32.0 to limit the rise in long rates. US Fixed Income Moderate Currency considerations suggest a neutral stance versus non-US Êxed income. Underweight 29.0 -2.5 T 26.5 Non-US Fixed Income Moderate The dollar should remain weak but already appears undervalued against many currencies. Japan’s Underweight 8.0 -2.5 T 5.5 economic woes and extremely low rates make yen debt unattractive. Cash (USD) Neutral 2.0 +0.0 2.0 Low yields make the opportunity cost of holding cash high. Commodities Neutral 5.0 +0.0 5.0 Demand from emerging markets should support prices, but negative roll yields likely to trim total returns. Alternative Investments Neutral 12.0 +0.0 12.0 No tactical view. Included into portfolio for diversiÊcation purposes.“WMR tactical deviation” legend: Overweight Underweight Neutral “Change” legend: S Upgrade T DowngradeSource: UBS WMR and Investment Solutions, as of 8 December 2010. For end notes, please see appendix.The benchmark allocations are provided for illustrative purposes only by UBS for a hypothetical US investor with a moderate investor risk proÊle and total return objective. See “Sources ofbenchmark allocations and investor risk proÊles” in the Appendix for a detailed explanation regarding the source of benchmark allocations and their suitability and the source of investorrisk proÊles. The current allocation is the sum of the benchmark allocation and the tactical deviation. See “Deviations from benchmark allocation” in the Appendix regarding the interpreta-tion of the suggested tactical deviations from benchmark. Investment Strategy Guide December 2010 15
  16. 16. Washington WatchThe ght for scal leadershipThe 112th session of Congress promises to be very Leadership sets the tonebusy, but not so very productive. We expect that The selection of leadership in the House for both partieswith power balanced more evenly between the two promises to keep tensions high. The reelection of Nancyparties there will be a rancorous tug-of-war. Con- Pelosi as the minority leader in the House was a closegress will accomplish little – only what it must – in vote, and speaks to the decimation of the “Blue Dog”2011. Contrary to the conventional wisdom that a moderate cohort. At the helm of House Republicans isdivided government is good for markets, squab- John Boehner, who represents a continuation of previousbling in Washington may actually be negative. positions but will have to reckon with a large freshman class. As many of these newcomers have support fromDeÎcits, spending and jobs the Tea Party movement, Boehner will have much to con-We expect that the next Congress will focus on de cits, tend with even passing “routine” legislation to keep thespending and jobs, with their eyes already on the 2012 government going.presidential election. Both Democrats and Republicansare claiming leadership on scal reform, but display dis- Unlike most sessions, the new 112th Congress will havetinct ideological approaches, with Democrats focused on signi cant routine business to clean up a er the previousreceipts (tax increases) and Republicans on expenditures session. The 111th Congress is poised to leave quite a(spending cuts). Even as the Senate does not have to few un nished a airs, potentially including only a short-pass major tax legislation in 2011, we expect scal sus- term extension of the budget bill, as well as the “extend-tainability to dominate Washington. Interestingly, the ers” bill, which includes many popular provisions. But asbipartisan De cit Commission’s aggressive proposals to the new Representatives will come with little experiencecut entitlements, the size of government, defense and and lots of passion to limit excess, Research and Develop-other politically sensitive programs, along with a restruc- ment and charitable contributions tax credits as well asturing of the tax code, met with some support from both Build America Bonds could at least temporarily expire.parties (see Fig. 1). However, when it comes to taking Additionally, increasing the debt ceiling could be a majorpolitical risks and compromising, we expect that both hurdle. The US government is expected to hit its self-parties’ desire to have a “pristine” voting record to imposed debt limit of just over USD 14 trillion by May ofdangle in front of voters come 2012 will block progress. 2011, and as the government is running large de cits without the ability to take on new debt, it would close. We expect the ceiling will eventually be increased, butFig. 1: DeÎcit Commission’s proposal improves the deÎcit Fig. 2: US debt issuance near its limitOutlays to exceed expenditures for the next decade, in % of GDP The debt ceiling, in USD trillion28 1424 1220 10 816 612 4 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Revenues (historical) Outlays (historical) 2 Revenues (Commissions proposal) Outlays (Commissions proposal) 0 Revenues (CBOs adjusted baseline) Outlays (CBOs adjusted baseline) 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010Note: CBO’s adjusted baseline is the CBO baseline projections adjusted for the Bush taxcut extention and AMT indexation. Source: CBO, National Commission on Fiscal Responsi-bility and Reform, UBS WMR, as of 3 December 2010 Source: Bloomberg, UBS WMR, as of 23 November 201016 2011 Outlook
  17. 17. Washington Watchthe ght could be brutal and the government could come mandate for the Fed to seek full employment) — andclose to or actually temporarily close. History speaks to the while they are unlikely to succeed, Fed of cials will likelypolitical and economic cost of such a strategy, but new face hostility when on The Hill. Additionally, we doubt amembers will come in ready to ght and not to abide by carbon tax or other energy legislation will make any ma-conventional wisdom. At a minimum, Republicans may be jor headway.able to demand concessions from the White House forapproving a higher ceiling (see Fig. 2). Protectionism could rise, but chances for legislation have diminished. Until recently, the Obama White HouseLegislation as political statement lacked a push for free trade. However, in an e ort to be-The House is likely to pass and repeal many pieces of leg- come more business-friendly, the Administration shi ed.islation, with little expectation that such laws will make it It inherited three Free Trade Agreements, and as of thethrough the Senate, let alone the White House. For exam- end of 2010 it pushed the FTA with South Korea; agree-ple, we expect that the House will repeal the healthcare ments with Colombia and Panama are pending. Whilebill (but this will be ignored by the Senate) and substan- Republicans are traditionally moderately more pro-freetially modify the nancial sector reform bill. House Repub- trade than Democrats, given the in uence of the Tealicans could, however, successfully delay or alter elements Party movement, we are unlikely to see a concerted ef-of these bills. fort in this direction. There is still the chance that protec- tionism will increase, especially disputes with China, ifTempers may are during discussions about taxes and unemployment stays high.spending, but that doesn’t translate into policy. SomeHouse Republicans have come out in favor of limiting Sometimes a strong government helpsspending to 2008 levels. Unemployment bene ts could be Overall, we expect a divided and divisive Congress. Welimited going forward and earmarked “pork” funding are in an environment where strong government can becould also be curtailed, but these changes involve rela- a good thing for markets given the need for achievingtively small price tags. Sacred areas, like defense, may ac- long-term scal sustainability, eliminating uncertaintytually be discussed, while entitlements — which make up regarding the long-term tax code and healthcare ex-the bulk of the expenditures — are unlikely to be curtailed penses and even for keeping the government open.even if there is consensus that this eventually must hap- However, we think that Congress will struggle to passpen. So-called compromises may involve both sides get- even routine legislation, let alone implement some of theting what they want, with an increase in spending and a fundamental reforms now being discussed. Such a situa-hike in taxes, but this just exacerbates the situation. The tion suggests continuity for some areas, but promisesuncertainty about the government’s long-term scal sus- con ict around government funding. Policy issues aretainability threatens Treasuries and the US dollar, but is critical to markets, but we are unlikely to see much of aunlikely to result in a crisis in the near term. boost from DC.Political divide leaves some policies untouched Katherine Klingensmith, StrategistThere are some areas where the party split will precludeaggressive legislation, leaving the status quo intact. Forexample, we expect that the government-sponsored en-terprises will be debated but not privatized in the nextCongress. In addition, the role and independence of theFederal Reserve could be a hotly debated subject, espe-cially with the controversial increase in quantitative easing,but we doubt legislation will be passed. Republicans havecalled for reform of the Federal Reserve Act (removing the Investment Strategy Guide December 2010 17
  18. 18. 18 2011 Outlook
  19. 19. Market ScenariosIn the tables below, we discuss four potential market scenarios for 2011 and assign a probability to each. While a con-tinued moderate recovery remains our base-case scenario, we see some risk of a renewed slowdown. There is also apossibility that a strong recovery will take hold. A “worst of both worlds” stag ation scenario that combines high in a-tion with weak economic growth remains unlikely in our view.Moderate High • The global economy continues to be on an expansion Goldilocks Supercycle GrowthRecovery course, but the recovery is more subdued than in prior cycles because of deleveraging. Low • The impact of the eurozone debt crisis remains geo-70% Growth Negative Deflation Stagflation graphically contained. Private demand is strong enough to overcome tighter scal policy in the developed econ- Growth omies. Negative Low High • The abundant slack in the economy and modest growth Inflation Inflation Inflation rate keeps in ationary pressures from building up.Renewed High • The fragile recovery in the developed economies stalls Goldilocks Supercycle Growth as scal consolidation creates additional headwinds.Downturn • Most countries su er at least one quarter of negative Low growth. Consumers cut back on spending while com-15% Growth Negative Deflation Stagflation panies hold on to their cash. • Falling commodity prices and a rise in excess capacities Growth sends the US in ation rate toward zero. Negative Low High Inflation Inflation InflationStrong High • High pro t margins and low interest rates encourage a Goldilocks Supercycle Growthrecovery surge in investment spending. Improvements in the labor market allow a more dynamic consumer recovery. Low • US GDP growth rate accelerates to 4% and global10% Growth Negative Deflation Stagflation growth reaches 5% in 2011. • In ation rises along with commodity prices, especially Growth in the emerging markets, but overheating is avoided. Negative Low High Inflation Inflation InflationStagflation High • Rising commodity prices set an in ationary process in Goldilocks Supercycle Growth motion and contribute to choking the emerging recov- Low ery. • Policy is tightened sharply in China and other emerging5% Growth Negative Deflation Stagflation markets in an attempt to keep in ation under control. • The combination of rising price levels and weak growth Growth prospects poses signi cant challenges to most nancial Negative Low High assets, but gold soars to record highs. Inflation Inflation InflationSource: UBS WMR Investment Strategy Guide December 2010 19
  20. 20. US Economic OutlookUS consumer comeback as growth engineWith the boost to production from inventory re- the growth recovery and to positive job formation. As sta-building and Îscal policy now in the past, the key ble labor income growth fuels consumption, the positivechallenge in 2011 for the US economy will be to feedback loop between consumption, job formation andgrow Înal private demand without crutches. Labor labor income is already rmly in place. Second, the work-income has already reacted visibly to Înal demand week has risen generously since 2009 and now stands atand related job growth and the Fed will remain about two-thirds of the way between the recessionsupportive. We are therefore conÎdent that the trough and the pre-recession level. We believe businessesUS economy can withstand a possible Îscal drag will likely employ workers more vigorously once the work-on growth. week has reached its pre-recession level. Finally, the household savings rate has been hovering above 5% sinceShow me the purchasing power late 2008. This is strong evidence that the savings rateWe estimate that the scal package boosted real GDP adjustment is over, barring any signi cant negative netgrowth by about 1 percentage point (pp) and inventories wealth shock. Given these developments, we expect con-added another 1.6pps in 2010. Government spending sumption to grow at a healthy clip of around 3% in 2011.grew by “only” about 1.1%, as rising federal spendingwas o set by the spending slump at local governments. InÏation and the FedTaking into account the government’s roughly 20% share The Fed has made it clear that it doesn’t plan to spoil thein GDP and allowing for income multipliers, we think the party. We think that it will follow through with buyingtotal impact was about 1%. We expect an only slightly the full USD 600 billion in Treasuries by end of 2Q11 and,lower government spending growth rate next year, as a er allowing for some passive balance sheet tightening,some moderation in federal spending will meet less weak- it will only proactively raise rates in early 2012. This kindness from local governments. We expect the Bush tax cuts of monetary support will be necessary to avoid the in a-to be extended in 2011; however, one of the key risks to tion rate from slipping even further. While we expect in-our outlook for the year is a bigger scal drag on growth. ation to rise moderately in 2011, we think the risk is forSo the key question remains: Will consumer purchasing a fairly at in ation rate throughout the year.power be potent enough to keep the train rolling? Thomas Berner, CFA, AnalystTrends signal sustainable consumption growthFirst, labor income gauges have already visibly reacted toFig. 1: A er inventory boost Înal demand to drive growth Fig. 2: CPI inÏation poised to rise in 2011US real GDP growth, q/q annualized, in % US inflation (Consumer Price Index), year-over-year, in % 10 6 5 4 0 2 -5 0 -10 -2 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 -4 Consumption Investment in nonresidential structures Investment in equipment & soware Residential investment 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Inventories Net exports CPI Core CPI Government Real GDP (% q/q annualized) Note: Shaded region represents UBS WMR forecasts. Source: Thomson Datastream, UBSSource: Thomson Datastream, UBS WMR, as of 2 December 2010 WMR, as of 3 December 201020 2011 Outlook
  21. 21. Global Economic OutlookThe big divideThe recovery in Europe stands on more solid pressures could continue to mount, even though theground, but it is still worryingly uneven between People’s Bank of China has been tightening policy. Atthe core and peripheral countries. Chinese growth some stage, Chinese monetary policy will be confrontedwill continue to lead the rest of Asia as well as com- with the impossibility of having capital mobility, a xedmodity-supplying countries – but with inÏation ris- exchange rate and an independent (and henceing, tougher choices lie ahead. In Japan, 2010 is in ation- ghting) central bank all at the same time.ending with a whimper but the recovery should Which of the three objectives will have to be abandonedcontinue. will be one of the most important questions for 2011. Brazil has already introduced capital controls, and someEurope: strong at the core, so on the outside Asian countries are starting to implement similar mea-As the European debt crisis is not over yet, nancial mar- sures. In our view, given the objective of the 12th Five-kets are increasingly dividing the region’s debt into Year Plan to reorient the Chinese economy from export-“safe” and “unsafe.” In Germany and other successful led growth to spur domestic demand, the ongoing realEuropean nations, export-fueled growth has now spilled appreciation pressures on the Chinese yuan will be metover to domestic demand, leading to virtuous growth partly by higher in ation and partly by letting the cur-cycles. These economies could use higher interest rate rency appreciate.levels from the European Central Bank (ECB) to coolgrowth – in stark contrast to a still depressed Southern Japan: modest recovery should resumeEurope, where even a 1% ECB policy rate is too high. Japanese exports slowed in the second half of 2010 asThe ECB will have to manage this situation cautiously, as the stronger yen made it dif cult for Japanese factoriesevery rate hike could trigger further tensions in the euro- to compete. In addition, domestic auto sales droppedzone. Switzerland remains a safe haven investment, and sharply a er the end of a government incentive scheme.interest rates are likely to increase there, as well as in However, these negatives should prove temporary. WeSweden and Norway. expect the recovery to resume in 2011, especially if the yen weakens in line with our forecasts.The impossible trinity in emerging marketsChina continues to pull ahead a er successfully cooling Thomas Berner, CFA, Analystdown its economy in spring 2010, and growth in Asia islikely to be solid as we go forward. However, in ationFig. 3: Healthy, sustainable level of manufacturing activity Fig. 4: InÏation resurgence a key risk in some countriesGlobal real activity, standardized (mean=0, standard deviation=1) Global CPI inflation rates, year-over-year, in % 3 10 2 8 1 6 0 4-1 2-2 0-3 -2-4 -4 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 US Eurozone UK Japan China US Eurozone UK Japan ChinaSource: Bloomberg, UBS WMR, as of 3 December 2010 Source: Thomson Datastream, UBS WMR, as of 2 December 2010 Investment Strategy Guide December 2010 21

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