“From Collective Responsibility to Collective Solution: The Shared History Korean Peninsula Crises,” presented by Dr. Mark E. Caprio at ICAS on February 21, 2019.
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Public Lecture Series (2019.2.21) Assessing Reconciliation on the Korean Peninsula, Part 1
1. Assessing Reconciliation
on The Korean Peninsula –
Contentious History, Summits,
Denuclearization, & Prospects for a
Paradigm Shift
Part One – Mark E. Caprio
"From Collective Responsibility to Collective
Solution: The Shared History Korean
Peninsula Crises"
Part Two – David Satterwhite
"Clausewitz on His Head – A Paradigm Shift
for Durable Peace on the Korean Peninsula"
ICAS Public Lecture Series
21 February 2019 @ TUJ
1
2. From Collective Responsibility to Collective Solution:
The Shared History of the Korean Peninsula Crises
Mark E. Caprio
Rikkyo University
12. Nuclear Weapons & North Korea
• Mid-1950s: First seeks nukes as answer to US, SK,
USSR, and China concerns
• Mid-1970s: Response to SK attempt to gain
weapons
• 1980s: Decrease dependence on China, USSR
• Early 1990s: Isolation after China, USSR establish
diplomatic relations with SK; preferred economic
status ended with allies
• 2000s: Nuclear Weapon tests 2006, 2009, 2013,
2016 (2x), 2017
13. Method to North Korean Madness:
The Logic of Going Nuclear
• 1950s: Korean War and after threats by US,
including introduction of weapons to SK in 1958
• 1970s: Maintain military balance with South
Korea; uncertain future with Allies (detente)
• 1990s: End of Soviet/Chinese economic, defense
ties
– Nuclear energy/weapons solution to both needs
– Negotiate with US with N card
• 2000s: Failure of negotiations with US, GWB’s
threat to use nukes on North Korea
– Agreed framework ended by GWB
14. US Threats to NK
• 1945 Division, 1948〜 enemy at the gate
• Direct threats to use weapons during Korean War
– US history of having used nukes
• Vows to use nukes to protect SK and Japan
• Deployment of nukes in South Korea
• Use of nuclear-capacity planes in Crises
– Ax tree murder incident (1976)
• US-SK Joint war exercises (Team Spirit, Foal Eagle)
15. Are NK’s Nukes Offensive Weapons?
• Impossibility never zero; likelihood?
– Capacity to deliver abroad?
– Possibility of accident?
– Preemptive strike: fear of immanent attack?
– Existence alone threatening, target for preemptive
attack?
• 1994 possibility of surgical strike
16. North Korea Denuclearization
Advances
• 1985 Joins Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT)
– Until 2003
• 1991 Signs Int. Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Safeguards Agreement
– “Agreement on Reconciliation, Non-Aggression and Exchanges and
Cooperation” with South Korea
• 1992 Allows for IAEA inspections
– Until 2002
• 1994 Signs Agreed Framework with US
– Ends in 2003
• Implosion of nuclear facilities
– 2008 Cooling tower, 2018 Nuclear test site
– Symbolic move suggesting intentions, very public
• Declarations of intension to freeze/end nuclear programs
– Kim to Carter (1994), Kim to Trump (2018)
17. Reasons for Failure I
• Suspicions of North expanding nuclear programs
– Enriched uranium facilities (2003)
• Suspicions of counterfeiting, drug trafficking,
human rights violations, etc.
• Belief in North Korea’s imminent crash
• Ideology issues
– General negative views of North Korea—a Communist
dinosaur
• North Korea’s limited political capital
18. Reasons for Failure II
• Prevailing regional threat
– US threat, nuclear umbrella protecting neighbors states
• Economic sanctions
– Complicates resolving economic problems
• Failure of international efforts
– Six-party talks of 2000s
• Difficult demands placed upon the state
– “Nuclear disarmament before negotiations”
• North Korea approach: give and take, positive responses to positive gestures
– “Nuclear procurement in the face of poverty”
• Practical criticism? Precedent of country disarming to relieve poverty?
19. North Korea Reality: Division
• Divided at birth
– Delivered to Soviet Union by the US in closing
hours of Pacific War
– Failure of US-USSR to reunite peninsula
• Joint Commission talks never involved Koreans
– Conflict on peninsula evolving into total war
• Failure to end war with peace treaty
– Continued conflict along controversial West Sea
divide
23. Defense budgets (2017, 2018)
(In billions of $US )
• World $1.700 (2.2%)
• U.S. $610 (3.1%) $643.3
• China $228 (1.9%) $168.2
• Russia $66.3 (4.3%) $63.1
• Japan $45.4 (0.9%) $47.3
• South Korea $39.2 (2.6%) $39.2
• *North Korea $15.0
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
*North Korea figures ArmedForces.eu; Global Firepower
figure $7.5 billion; SIPRI does not provide figures
26. 1994 Agreed Framework
• Exchanged positive advances with positive
responses
– Energy in exchange for frozen reactor
– Provide NK with safer reactors, normalized
relations, etc. in exchange for its cooperation
• Involved multiple countries
– Japan and South Korea, as well as US
• Contained trust-strengthening measures
27. Eight “Easy” steps Toward building a
Peaceful North East Asia
• Understanding: Why is North Korea, North Korea?
– Image reformation
• Collective responsibility
– Recognizing multiple states as responsible for present situation
• Placing priority on trust building measures
– Address relatively solvable problems first
– Give and take solutions over unconditional retreat
• Threat reduction
– Nuclear-free zone in NE Asia?
• Ending Korean War
• Ending economic sanctions
• Normalize relations
• Advancing toward reunification of two Koreas