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Public Lecture Series (2019.2.21) Assessing Reconciliation on the Korean Peninsula, Part 1

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“From Collective Responsibility to Collective Solution: The Shared History Korean Peninsula Crises,” presented by Dr. Mark E. Caprio at ICAS on February 21, 2019.

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Public Lecture Series (2019.2.21) Assessing Reconciliation on the Korean Peninsula, Part 1

  1. 1. Assessing Reconciliation on The Korean Peninsula – Contentious History, Summits, Denuclearization, & Prospects for a Paradigm Shift Part One – Mark E. Caprio "From Collective Responsibility to Collective Solution: The Shared History Korean Peninsula Crises" Part Two – David Satterwhite "Clausewitz on His Head – A Paradigm Shift for Durable Peace on the Korean Peninsula" ICAS Public Lecture Series 21 February 2019 @ TUJ 1
  2. 2. From Collective Responsibility to Collective Solution: The Shared History of the Korean Peninsula Crises Mark E. Caprio Rikkyo University
  3. 3. NEGATIVE (BUT FAMILIAR) IMAGES
  4. 4. Negative (but common) Images of NK
  5. 5. Nuclear weapons over starving people
  6. 6. Military-driven Society
  7. 7. Human Rights
  8. 8. North Korea out to Conquer the World
  9. 9. A FORGOTTEN IMAGE?
  10. 10. Pyongyang Seoul
  11. 11. A NUCLEAR NORTH KOREA
  12. 12. Nuclear Weapons & North Korea • Mid-1950s: First seeks nukes as answer to US, SK, USSR, and China concerns • Mid-1970s: Response to SK attempt to gain weapons • 1980s: Decrease dependence on China, USSR • Early 1990s: Isolation after China, USSR establish diplomatic relations with SK; preferred economic status ended with allies • 2000s: Nuclear Weapon tests 2006, 2009, 2013, 2016 (2x), 2017
  13. 13. Method to North Korean Madness: The Logic of Going Nuclear • 1950s: Korean War and after threats by US, including introduction of weapons to SK in 1958 • 1970s: Maintain military balance with South Korea; uncertain future with Allies (detente) • 1990s: End of Soviet/Chinese economic, defense ties – Nuclear energy/weapons solution to both needs – Negotiate with US with N card • 2000s: Failure of negotiations with US, GWB’s threat to use nukes on North Korea – Agreed framework ended by GWB
  14. 14. US Threats to NK • 1945 Division, 1948〜 enemy at the gate • Direct threats to use weapons during Korean War – US history of having used nukes • Vows to use nukes to protect SK and Japan • Deployment of nukes in South Korea • Use of nuclear-capacity planes in Crises – Ax tree murder incident (1976) • US-SK Joint war exercises (Team Spirit, Foal Eagle)
  15. 15. Are NK’s Nukes Offensive Weapons? • Impossibility never zero; likelihood? – Capacity to deliver abroad? – Possibility of accident? – Preemptive strike: fear of immanent attack? – Existence alone threatening, target for preemptive attack? • 1994 possibility of surgical strike
  16. 16. North Korea Denuclearization Advances • 1985 Joins Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) – Until 2003 • 1991 Signs Int. Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Safeguards Agreement – “Agreement on Reconciliation, Non-Aggression and Exchanges and Cooperation” with South Korea • 1992 Allows for IAEA inspections – Until 2002 • 1994 Signs Agreed Framework with US – Ends in 2003 • Implosion of nuclear facilities – 2008 Cooling tower, 2018 Nuclear test site – Symbolic move suggesting intentions, very public • Declarations of intension to freeze/end nuclear programs – Kim to Carter (1994), Kim to Trump (2018)
  17. 17. Reasons for Failure I • Suspicions of North expanding nuclear programs – Enriched uranium facilities (2003) • Suspicions of counterfeiting, drug trafficking, human rights violations, etc. • Belief in North Korea’s imminent crash • Ideology issues – General negative views of North Korea—a Communist dinosaur • North Korea’s limited political capital
  18. 18. Reasons for Failure II • Prevailing regional threat – US threat, nuclear umbrella protecting neighbors states • Economic sanctions – Complicates resolving economic problems • Failure of international efforts – Six-party talks of 2000s • Difficult demands placed upon the state – “Nuclear disarmament before negotiations” • North Korea approach: give and take, positive responses to positive gestures – “Nuclear procurement in the face of poverty” • Practical criticism? Precedent of country disarming to relieve poverty?
  19. 19. North Korea Reality: Division • Divided at birth – Delivered to Soviet Union by the US in closing hours of Pacific War – Failure of US-USSR to reunite peninsula • Joint Commission talks never involved Koreans – Conflict on peninsula evolving into total war • Failure to end war with peace treaty – Continued conflict along controversial West Sea divide
  20. 20. NORTH KOREAN REALITY
  21. 21. From 38°to the DMZ
  22. 22. Geographic Pressure North Korea prior to 2006 Nuclear Umbrella Nuclear UmbrellaNuclear Power Nuclear Power
  23. 23. Defense budgets (2017, 2018) (In billions of $US ) • World $1.700 (2.2%) • U.S. $610 (3.1%) $643.3 • China $228 (1.9%) $168.2 • Russia $66.3 (4.3%) $63.1 • Japan $45.4 (0.9%) $47.3 • South Korea $39.2 (2.6%) $39.2 • *North Korea $15.0 Stockholm International Peace Research Institute *North Korea figures ArmedForces.eu; Global Firepower figure $7.5 billion; SIPRI does not provide figures
  24. 24. TOWARD PEACEFUL RESOLUTION
  25. 25. Peace Initiatives: In the Brink of War Jimmy Carter-Kim Il Song, June 15, 1994
  26. 26. 1994 Agreed Framework • Exchanged positive advances with positive responses – Energy in exchange for frozen reactor – Provide NK with safer reactors, normalized relations, etc. in exchange for its cooperation • Involved multiple countries – Japan and South Korea, as well as US • Contained trust-strengthening measures
  27. 27. Eight “Easy” steps Toward building a Peaceful North East Asia • Understanding: Why is North Korea, North Korea? – Image reformation • Collective responsibility – Recognizing multiple states as responsible for present situation • Placing priority on trust building measures – Address relatively solvable problems first – Give and take solutions over unconditional retreat • Threat reduction – Nuclear-free zone in NE Asia? • Ending Korean War • Ending economic sanctions • Normalize relations • Advancing toward reunification of two Koreas
  28. 28. POSITIVE IMAGES
  29. 29. In search of Positive Images
  30. 30. One More Attempt
  31. 31. Still Searching
  32. 32. Py’ongyang
  33. 33. Reasonable Reads

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