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Assessing Reconciliation
on The Korean Peninsula –
Contentious History, Summits,
Denuclearization, & Prospects for a
Paradigm Shift
Part One – Mark E. Caprio
"From Collective Responsibility to Collective
Solution: The Shared History Korean
Peninsula Crises"
Part Two – David Satterwhite
"Clausewitz on His Head – A Paradigm Shift
for Durable Peace on the Korean Peninsula"
ICAS Public Lecture Series
21 February 2019 @ TUJ
1
From Collective Responsibility to Collective Solution:
The Shared History of the Korean Peninsula Crises
Mark E. Caprio
Rikkyo University
NEGATIVE (BUT FAMILIAR) IMAGES
Negative (but common) Images of NK
Nuclear weapons over starving people
Military-driven Society
Human Rights
North Korea out to Conquer the World
A FORGOTTEN IMAGE?
Pyongyang Seoul
A NUCLEAR NORTH KOREA
Nuclear Weapons & North Korea
• Mid-1950s: First seeks nukes as answer to US, SK,
USSR, and China concerns
• Mid-1970s: Response to SK attempt to gain
weapons
• 1980s: Decrease dependence on China, USSR
• Early 1990s: Isolation after China, USSR establish
diplomatic relations with SK; preferred economic
status ended with allies
• 2000s: Nuclear Weapon tests 2006, 2009, 2013,
2016 (2x), 2017
Method to North Korean Madness:
The Logic of Going Nuclear
• 1950s: Korean War and after threats by US,
including introduction of weapons to SK in 1958
• 1970s: Maintain military balance with South
Korea; uncertain future with Allies (detente)
• 1990s: End of Soviet/Chinese economic, defense
ties
– Nuclear energy/weapons solution to both needs
– Negotiate with US with N card
• 2000s: Failure of negotiations with US, GWB’s
threat to use nukes on North Korea
– Agreed framework ended by GWB
US Threats to NK
• 1945 Division, 1948〜 enemy at the gate
• Direct threats to use weapons during Korean War
– US history of having used nukes
• Vows to use nukes to protect SK and Japan
• Deployment of nukes in South Korea
• Use of nuclear-capacity planes in Crises
– Ax tree murder incident (1976)
• US-SK Joint war exercises (Team Spirit, Foal Eagle)
Are NK’s Nukes Offensive Weapons?
• Impossibility never zero; likelihood?
– Capacity to deliver abroad?
– Possibility of accident?
– Preemptive strike: fear of immanent attack?
– Existence alone threatening, target for preemptive
attack?
• 1994 possibility of surgical strike
North Korea Denuclearization
Advances
• 1985 Joins Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT)
– Until 2003
• 1991 Signs Int. Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Safeguards Agreement
– “Agreement on Reconciliation, Non-Aggression and Exchanges and
Cooperation” with South Korea
• 1992 Allows for IAEA inspections
– Until 2002
• 1994 Signs Agreed Framework with US
– Ends in 2003
• Implosion of nuclear facilities
– 2008 Cooling tower, 2018 Nuclear test site
– Symbolic move suggesting intentions, very public
• Declarations of intension to freeze/end nuclear programs
– Kim to Carter (1994), Kim to Trump (2018)
Reasons for Failure I
• Suspicions of North expanding nuclear programs
– Enriched uranium facilities (2003)
• Suspicions of counterfeiting, drug trafficking,
human rights violations, etc.
• Belief in North Korea’s imminent crash
• Ideology issues
– General negative views of North Korea—a Communist
dinosaur
• North Korea’s limited political capital
Reasons for Failure II
• Prevailing regional threat
– US threat, nuclear umbrella protecting neighbors states
• Economic sanctions
– Complicates resolving economic problems
• Failure of international efforts
– Six-party talks of 2000s
• Difficult demands placed upon the state
– “Nuclear disarmament before negotiations”
• North Korea approach: give and take, positive responses to positive gestures
– “Nuclear procurement in the face of poverty”
• Practical criticism? Precedent of country disarming to relieve poverty?
North Korea Reality: Division
• Divided at birth
– Delivered to Soviet Union by the US in closing
hours of Pacific War
– Failure of US-USSR to reunite peninsula
• Joint Commission talks never involved Koreans
– Conflict on peninsula evolving into total war
• Failure to end war with peace treaty
– Continued conflict along controversial West Sea
divide
NORTH KOREAN REALITY
From 38°to the DMZ
Geographic Pressure
North Korea prior to 2006
Nuclear Umbrella
Nuclear UmbrellaNuclear Power
Nuclear Power
Defense budgets (2017, 2018)
(In billions of $US )
• World $1.700 (2.2%)
• U.S. $610 (3.1%) $643.3
• China $228 (1.9%) $168.2
• Russia $66.3 (4.3%) $63.1
• Japan $45.4 (0.9%) $47.3
• South Korea $39.2 (2.6%) $39.2
• *North Korea $15.0
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
*North Korea figures ArmedForces.eu; Global Firepower
figure $7.5 billion; SIPRI does not provide figures
TOWARD PEACEFUL RESOLUTION
Peace Initiatives: In the Brink of War
Jimmy Carter-Kim Il Song, June 15, 1994
1994 Agreed Framework
• Exchanged positive advances with positive
responses
– Energy in exchange for frozen reactor
– Provide NK with safer reactors, normalized
relations, etc. in exchange for its cooperation
• Involved multiple countries
– Japan and South Korea, as well as US
• Contained trust-strengthening measures
Eight “Easy” steps Toward building a
Peaceful North East Asia
• Understanding: Why is North Korea, North Korea?
– Image reformation
• Collective responsibility
– Recognizing multiple states as responsible for present situation
• Placing priority on trust building measures
– Address relatively solvable problems first
– Give and take solutions over unconditional retreat
• Threat reduction
– Nuclear-free zone in NE Asia?
• Ending Korean War
• Ending economic sanctions
• Normalize relations
• Advancing toward reunification of two Koreas
POSITIVE IMAGES
In search of Positive Images
One More Attempt
Still Searching
Py’ongyang
Reasonable Reads

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Public Lecture Series (2019.2.21) Assessing Reconciliation on the Korean Peninsula, Part 1

  • 1. Assessing Reconciliation on The Korean Peninsula – Contentious History, Summits, Denuclearization, & Prospects for a Paradigm Shift Part One – Mark E. Caprio "From Collective Responsibility to Collective Solution: The Shared History Korean Peninsula Crises" Part Two – David Satterwhite "Clausewitz on His Head – A Paradigm Shift for Durable Peace on the Korean Peninsula" ICAS Public Lecture Series 21 February 2019 @ TUJ 1
  • 2. From Collective Responsibility to Collective Solution: The Shared History of the Korean Peninsula Crises Mark E. Caprio Rikkyo University
  • 4. Negative (but common) Images of NK
  • 5. Nuclear weapons over starving people
  • 8. North Korea out to Conquer the World
  • 12. Nuclear Weapons & North Korea • Mid-1950s: First seeks nukes as answer to US, SK, USSR, and China concerns • Mid-1970s: Response to SK attempt to gain weapons • 1980s: Decrease dependence on China, USSR • Early 1990s: Isolation after China, USSR establish diplomatic relations with SK; preferred economic status ended with allies • 2000s: Nuclear Weapon tests 2006, 2009, 2013, 2016 (2x), 2017
  • 13. Method to North Korean Madness: The Logic of Going Nuclear • 1950s: Korean War and after threats by US, including introduction of weapons to SK in 1958 • 1970s: Maintain military balance with South Korea; uncertain future with Allies (detente) • 1990s: End of Soviet/Chinese economic, defense ties – Nuclear energy/weapons solution to both needs – Negotiate with US with N card • 2000s: Failure of negotiations with US, GWB’s threat to use nukes on North Korea – Agreed framework ended by GWB
  • 14. US Threats to NK • 1945 Division, 1948〜 enemy at the gate • Direct threats to use weapons during Korean War – US history of having used nukes • Vows to use nukes to protect SK and Japan • Deployment of nukes in South Korea • Use of nuclear-capacity planes in Crises – Ax tree murder incident (1976) • US-SK Joint war exercises (Team Spirit, Foal Eagle)
  • 15. Are NK’s Nukes Offensive Weapons? • Impossibility never zero; likelihood? – Capacity to deliver abroad? – Possibility of accident? – Preemptive strike: fear of immanent attack? – Existence alone threatening, target for preemptive attack? • 1994 possibility of surgical strike
  • 16. North Korea Denuclearization Advances • 1985 Joins Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) – Until 2003 • 1991 Signs Int. Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Safeguards Agreement – “Agreement on Reconciliation, Non-Aggression and Exchanges and Cooperation” with South Korea • 1992 Allows for IAEA inspections – Until 2002 • 1994 Signs Agreed Framework with US – Ends in 2003 • Implosion of nuclear facilities – 2008 Cooling tower, 2018 Nuclear test site – Symbolic move suggesting intentions, very public • Declarations of intension to freeze/end nuclear programs – Kim to Carter (1994), Kim to Trump (2018)
  • 17. Reasons for Failure I • Suspicions of North expanding nuclear programs – Enriched uranium facilities (2003) • Suspicions of counterfeiting, drug trafficking, human rights violations, etc. • Belief in North Korea’s imminent crash • Ideology issues – General negative views of North Korea—a Communist dinosaur • North Korea’s limited political capital
  • 18. Reasons for Failure II • Prevailing regional threat – US threat, nuclear umbrella protecting neighbors states • Economic sanctions – Complicates resolving economic problems • Failure of international efforts – Six-party talks of 2000s • Difficult demands placed upon the state – “Nuclear disarmament before negotiations” • North Korea approach: give and take, positive responses to positive gestures – “Nuclear procurement in the face of poverty” • Practical criticism? Precedent of country disarming to relieve poverty?
  • 19. North Korea Reality: Division • Divided at birth – Delivered to Soviet Union by the US in closing hours of Pacific War – Failure of US-USSR to reunite peninsula • Joint Commission talks never involved Koreans – Conflict on peninsula evolving into total war • Failure to end war with peace treaty – Continued conflict along controversial West Sea divide
  • 22. Geographic Pressure North Korea prior to 2006 Nuclear Umbrella Nuclear UmbrellaNuclear Power Nuclear Power
  • 23. Defense budgets (2017, 2018) (In billions of $US ) • World $1.700 (2.2%) • U.S. $610 (3.1%) $643.3 • China $228 (1.9%) $168.2 • Russia $66.3 (4.3%) $63.1 • Japan $45.4 (0.9%) $47.3 • South Korea $39.2 (2.6%) $39.2 • *North Korea $15.0 Stockholm International Peace Research Institute *North Korea figures ArmedForces.eu; Global Firepower figure $7.5 billion; SIPRI does not provide figures
  • 25. Peace Initiatives: In the Brink of War Jimmy Carter-Kim Il Song, June 15, 1994
  • 26. 1994 Agreed Framework • Exchanged positive advances with positive responses – Energy in exchange for frozen reactor – Provide NK with safer reactors, normalized relations, etc. in exchange for its cooperation • Involved multiple countries – Japan and South Korea, as well as US • Contained trust-strengthening measures
  • 27. Eight “Easy” steps Toward building a Peaceful North East Asia • Understanding: Why is North Korea, North Korea? – Image reformation • Collective responsibility – Recognizing multiple states as responsible for present situation • Placing priority on trust building measures – Address relatively solvable problems first – Give and take solutions over unconditional retreat • Threat reduction – Nuclear-free zone in NE Asia? • Ending Korean War • Ending economic sanctions • Normalize relations • Advancing toward reunification of two Koreas
  • 29. In search of Positive Images