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"How to Make An Effective Business Plan for Shopping Center"

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Özyeğin University Alp Alkas Retail Real Estate Center / Lecture - "How to Make An Effective Business Plan for Shopping Center"

Veröffentlicht in: Business, Wirtschaft & Finanzen
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"How to Make An Effective Business Plan for Shopping Center"

  1. 1. Tufan Karaca www.tkaraca.com karaca@tkaraca.com "How to Make An Effective Business Plan for a Shopping Center"
  2. 2. Failing to plan is planing to fail
  3. 3. Failing to plan is planing to fail
  4. 4. Still the not-so-great mall of China: 99% of units in world's biggest shopping centre remain empty SEVEN YEARS after it opened
  5. 5. BUSINESS PLAN FEASIBILITY BUSINESS MODEL
  6. 6. FEASIBILITY BUSINESS MODEL BUSINESS PLAN
  7. 7. FEASIBILITY STUDY May the project be done ???? Technically Financially
  8. 8. FEASIBILITY STUDY Technically ????
  9. 9. LOCATION LOCATION LOCATION LOCATION
  10. 10. Distance to other shopping centers, Nearby locations for other future shopping malls, Accessibility, Population density, Infrastructure,
  11. 11. Zoning
  12. 12. Terrain infrastructure swamp rocky
  13. 13. FEASIBILITY STUDY Financially ????
  14. 14. What is the ONLY number that you have know to make a decision on starting up a SHOPPING MALL? or any real estate project as a matter of fact any INVESTMENT
  15. 15. What do you need to calculate ROI interest rate risk
  16. 16. Interest rate is given Lets assume it is 10% Then what is ROI ?
  17. 17. Year Investment Interest 1 100 10 2 110 11 3 121 12 4 133 13 5 146 15 6 161 16 7 177 18 8 195 19 9 214 21 10 236 24
  18. 18. Year Investment Interest 1 100 10 2 110 11 3 121 12 4 133 13 5 146 15 6 161 16 7 177 18 8 195 19 9 214 21 10 236 24
  19. 19. Risk Analysis PEST
  20. 20. Environmental analysis Political Economical Social Technological
  21. 21. Interest Rate PEST Analysis Decision for ROI ROI ≤ 4 years (25%)
  22. 22. Other information you need to know : - Size and price of the land, - Zoning info regarding how much you can build, - Cost of construction, - Achievable average rent
  23. 23. Assumptions for an example - Size and price of the land, 150,000 sq.mt. @ $ 300 = $ 45,000,000 - Zoning info regarding how much you can build, Max 40% - covered area .75 - Cost of construction, $ 1,000 / sq.mt. – GLA = 75%
  24. 24. Calculations : Cost of construction : 150,000 x .75 = 112,500 sq.mt. We also know that we can not build more then 60,000 sq.mt. on the land so we will have a 2 story shopping center. 112,500 x $ 1,000 = $ 112,500,000
  25. 25. Total Cost : Cost of land 45,000,000 Cost of construction 112,500,000 Soft costs (8% of const.) 9,000,000 Leasing & Marketing costs 15,000,000 Unexpected (5% of.const.) 5,625,000 TOTAL COST 187,125,000
  26. 26. Cost per GLA : GLA / Built Area = 75 % 112,500 x .75 = 84,375 sq.mt. Cost per GLA = Cost of const. / GLA = 187,125,000 / 84,375 = $ 2,218
  27. 27. Cost per sq.mt. GLA = $ 2,218 How do we proceed from here on ?????
  28. 28. $ 2,218 / 4 years (ROI) = $ 555 Is this achievable ????
  29. 29. Don’t forget this is the yearly rent you try to reach per sq.mt. GLA You need to divide that number by 12 to see the monthly rent : 555 / 12 = $ 46 / sq.mt. / month
  30. 30. With this feasibility study we found out that this project will be OK NOW WE HAVE TO PREPARE A BUSINESS MODEL
  31. 31. Other factors to consider : Construction period, Terms of financing
  32. 32. WHAT IS A BUSINESS MODEL ? A business model is nothing else than a representation of how an organization makes (or intends to make) money. This can be nicely described through the 9 building blocks illustrated in the graphic below, which we call "business model canvas". Alexander Osterwalder
  33. 33. Who is our customer ? Where is he coming from ? How is he coming ? How far is he coming from ? What is his income level ? What are his needs ? What can we offer him that he is not aware that he needs ? Who is around us ?
  34. 34. Answers of these and these kind of questions will lead us to decide on : What kind of shopping center we should build. High end Low end Medium Entertainment Neighborhood Outlet Community CenterLifestyle
  35. 35. and what should be our shop mix, with which brands ? accordingly what kind of a building ?
  36. 36. All of these will shape our marketing plan.
  37. 37. BUSINESS PLAN FEASIBILITY BUSINESS MODEL NOW WE HAVE ALMOST ALL THE DATA TO START OUR BUSİNESS PLAN
  38. 38. NO PLAN IS BETTER THAN IT’S ASSUMPTIONS.
  39. 39. In its simplest form, a business plan is a guide—a roadmap for your business that outlines goals and details how you plan to achieve those goals. WHAT IS A BUSINESS PLAN ?
  40. 40. HOW TO REACH TO YOUR VISION OF YOUR BUSINESS
  41. 41. A good plan, violently executed now, is better than a perfect plan next week. George S. Patton Your plan is wrong from the start
  42. 42. For whom do we write the Business Plan o Ourselves o Our empleyees o Our business partners o Our suppliers o Our lenders
  43. 43. Outline : 1. Executive summary 2. Your company 3. Vision 4. Mission 5. Target market 6. Competition 7. Marketing and sales plans 8. Operations 9. Management team 10.Milestones 11.Financial analysis
  44. 44. Finacial analysis : o Cash – Flow Anaylsis o Proforma Income Satement o Proforma Balance sheet
  45. 45. Finacial analysis : o Cash – Flow Anaylsis o Proforma Income Satement o Proforma Balance sheet
  46. 46. Cash flow analysis, compares the timing and amount of cash inflows with the timing and amount of cash outflows Cash Flow Analysis
  47. 47. Cash Flow Example
  48. 48. NAKİT GİRİŞLERi Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec Kasa 6,061 Tahsilat - 2013 satışlarından 1,542,415 780,353 Tahsilat - 2014 satışlarınan 440,527 1,475,117 3,329,090 3,703,121 3,587,256 3,679,437 4,171,895 4,590,179 4,436,854 5,321,687 5,205,955 5,524,7 Kredi Diğer nakit 2013 66,294 100,154 98,287 Diğer nakit 2014 219,278 218,840 225,492 217,706 225,608 263,617 257,674 239,595 326,5 TOPLAM NAKİT GİRİŞLERi 2,055,297 2,355,624 3,427,377 3,922,399 3,806,096 3,904,929 4,389,601 4,815,787 4,700,471 5,579,361 5,445,550 5,851,3 NAKİT ÇIKIŞLARI Hammadde 1,039,222 504,763 Hammadde 1,726,230 1,730,875 1,879,821 1,835,787 1,993,016 2,252,371 2,317,874 2,205,651 2,903,026 2,448,174 3,082,8 İşçilik 1,317,207 1,344,810 1,448,562 1,448,247 1,543,616 1,688,975 1,687,619 1,747,441 1,912,536 2,007,129 2,191,845 2,224,6 Sabit giderler Demirbaş alımı 124,684 106,851 25,014 Beklenmeyen Giderler 23,564 37,005 32,863 33,531 33,794 36,820 39,400 40,653 41,182 49,102 46,400 53,0 Kredi geri ödeme Fazi ödeme Geçen yıldan sarkan vergi 77,879 Gelir vergisi Diğer TOPLAM NAKİT ÇIKIŞLARI 2,457,872 3,737,492 3,319,151 3,386,613 3,413,197 3,718,811 3,979,390 4,105,968 4,159,369 4,959,257 4,686,419 5,360,6 FARK -402,575 -1,381,868 108,226 535,786 392,899 186,118 410,211 709,819 541,102 620,104 759,131 490,7 KÜMÜLATİF FARK -402,575 -1,784,444 -1,676,217 -1,140,431 -747,532 -561,414 -151,203 558,617 1,099,719 1,719,823 2,478,954 2,969,6
  49. 49. NAKİT GİRİŞLERi Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-1 Kasa 6,061 Tahsilat - 2013 satışlarından 1,542,415 780,353 Tahsilat - 2014 satışlarınan 440,527 1,475,117 3,329,090 3,703,121 3,587,256 3,679,437 4,171,895 4,590,179 4,436,854 5,321,687 5,205,955 5,524,77 Kredi 450,000 1,400,000 Diğer nakit 2013 66,294 100,154 98,287 Diğer nakit 2014 219,278 218,840 225,492 217,706 225,608 263,617 257,674 239,595 326,58 TOPLAM NAKİT GİRİŞLERi 2,505,297 3,755,624 3,427,377 3,922,399 3,806,096 3,904,929 4,389,601 4,815,787 4,700,471 5,579,361 5,445,550 5,851,35 NAKİT ÇIKIŞLARI Hammadde 1,039,222 504,763 Hammadde 1,726,230 1,730,875 1,879,821 1,835,787 1,993,016 2,252,371 2,317,874 2,205,651 2,903,026 2,448,174 3,082,89 İşçilik 1,317,207 1,344,810 1,448,562 1,448,247 1,543,616 1,688,975 1,687,619 1,747,441 1,912,536 2,007,129 2,191,845 2,224,66 Sabir giderler Demirbaş alımı 124,684 106,851 25,014 Beklenmeyen Giderler 23,564 37,005 32,863 33,531 33,794 36,820 39,400 40,653 41,182 49,102 46,400 53,07 Kredi geri ödeme Fazi ödeme Geçen yıldan sarkan vergi 77,879 Gelir vergisi Diğer TOPLAM NAKİT ÇIKIŞLARI 2,457,872 3,737,492 3,319,151 3,386,613 3,413,197 3,718,811 3,979,390 4,105,968 4,159,369 4,959,257 4,686,419 5,360,63 FARK 47,425 18,132 108,226 535,786 392,899 186,118 410,211 709,819 541,102 620,104 759,131 490,72 KÜMÜLATİF FARK 47,425 65,556 173,783 709,569 1,102,468 1,288,586 1,698,797 2,408,617 2,949,719 3,569,823 4,328,954 4,819,67
  50. 50. Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-1 Kasa 6,061 Tahsilat - 2013 satışlarından 1,542,415 780,353 Tahsilat - 2014 satışlarınan 440,527 1,475,117 3,329,090 3,703,121 3,587,256 3,679,437 4,171,895 4,590,179 4,436,854 5,321,687 5,205,955 5,524,77 Kredi 450,000 1,400,000 Diğer nakit 2013 66,294 100,154 98,287 Diğer nakit 2014 219,278 218,840 225,492 217,706 225,608 263,617 257,674 239,595 326,58 TOPLAM NAKİT GİRİŞLERi 2,505,297 3,755,624 3,427,377 3,922,399 3,806,096 3,904,929 4,389,601 4,815,787 4,700,471 5,579,361 5,445,550 5,851,35 NAKİT ÇIKIŞLARI Hammadde 1,039,222 504,763 Hammadde 1,726,230 1,730,875 1,879,821 1,835,787 1,993,016 2,252,371 2,317,874 2,205,651 2,903,026 2,448,174 3,082,89 İşçilik 1,317,207 1,344,810 1,448,562 1,448,247 1,543,616 1,688,975 1,687,619 1,747,441 1,912,536 2,007,129 2,191,845 2,224,66 Sabir giderler Demirbaş alımı 124,684 106,851 25,014 Beklenmeyen Giderler 23,564 37,005 32,863 33,531 33,794 36,820 39,400 40,653 41,182 49,102 46,400 53,07 Kredi geri ödeme 90,000 500,000 400,000 150,000 450,000 260,000 Fazi ödeme 9,000 37,000 35,200 25,200 17,200 14,200 5,200 5,200 Geçen yıldan sarkan vergi 77,879 Gelir vergisi Diğer TOPLAM NAKİT ÇIKIŞLARI 2,466,872 3,774,492 3,444,351 3,911,813 3,830,397 3,883,011 4,434,590 4,371,168 4,159,369 4,959,257 4,686,419 5,360,63 FARK 38,425 -18,868 -16,974 10,586 -24,301 21,918 -44,989 444,619 541,102 620,104 759,131 490,72 KÜMÜLATİF FARK 38,425 19,556 2,583 13,169 -11,132 10,786 -34,203 410,417 951,519 1,571,623 2,330,754 2,821,47
  51. 51. -2,000,000 -1,000,000 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Net Satışlar Satılan Malın Maliyeti Faaliyet Kârı / (Zararı) Net Dönem Kârı / (Zararı) KÜMÜLATİF FARK
  52. 52. TIME LINE LEVEL
  53. 53. Before opening After opening Investment level Operations level TIME LINE LEVEL Land cost Construction cost Interest (if any) Other Cash out Cash in Interest payments Dept repayment Taxes Other Rent Management salaries Utilities Cleaning & security Marketing Other Common area charge Marketing
  54. 54. Before opening After opening Investment level Operations level TIME LINE LEVEL Land cost Construction cost Interest (if any) Other Cash out Cash in Interest payments Dept repayment Taxes Other Rent Management salaries Utilities Cleaning & security Marketing Other Common area charge Marketing Depreciation ?
  55. 55. Depreciation ?
  56. 56. New ideas….
  57. 57. Tufan Karaca www.tkaraca.com karaca@tkaraca.com

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