APM Welcome, APM North West Network Conference, Synergies Across Sectors
Probabilty of Events
1. SUBTOPIC
Probability of an Event
Probability of Mutually Exclusive
Probability of Independent events
By: NR Tungane
Cited: Dubai Suney
SLIDE
NUMBER
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2. a set of desired outcomes
= n ( A )
=
P(A) n ( S
)
a set of all possible outcomes
0 £ P(A) £ 1 and P(A') = 1- P(A)
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3. MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS
x
A B
x
A B
The probability of event A or event B
occurring / not mutually exclusive
P(A or B)
P(AÈ B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(AÇ B)
P(AÇ B) ¹ 0
The probability of event A and event
B mutually exclusive.
P(A or B)
P(AÈ B) = P(A) + P(B)
because P(AÇ B) = 0
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4. INDEPENDENT EVENTS
Two events are independent if the fact A occurs
does not affect the probability of B occurring.
P(A and B)
P(AÇ B) = P(A)´ P(B)
METHOD
1
2
3
Find the probability of each event.
Determine if the events are dependent.
Use the Multiplication Rule of Probability to calculate of both events. 3 of 3