Advantages of Probability-Based Approaches to Animal Disease Surveillance - Dr. Aaron Scott, Center Director, USDA/APHIS/VS/CEAH, from the 2012 Annual Conference of the National Institute for Animal Agriculture, March 26 - 29, Denver, CO, USA.
More presentations at: http://www.trufflemedia.com/agmedia/conference/2012-decreasing-resources-increasing-regulation-advance-animal-agriculture
9. 9
Evidence may be combination
of sample testing and
other knowledge about risk
factors
10. “Risk” = likelihood * consequence
= animals more likely to get disease?
= animals more likely to have disease?
= animals more likely to be detected?
= more dangerous to people????
10
11. 11
…is drawing a conclusion about
the population from one or
more pieces of evidence
30. High value (feral swine exposure)
Limit to number needed
Collect “pink tag”, scan ID, combine
zip with feral risk, target # needed
Other tags
Spend the money on other diseases
30
31. Safeguarding Animal Health 31
national.surveillance.unit@aphis.usda.gov
http://www.aphis.usda.gov/vs/ceah/ncahs/nsu/
Thanks!!