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Thinking Hard About the Future

                    Tim O’Reilly

                   July 21, 2010
                        OSCON
“I’m an inventor.
 I became interested in
 long term trends
 because an invention
 has to make sense in the
 world in which it is
 finished, not the world in
 which it is started.”
             -Ray Kurzweil
“The future is here.
It’s just not evenly
distributed yet.”
      - William Gibson
Harlan Ellison
Text




http://visaocarioca.com.br/?p=4270
The Black Christ of Portobelo, Panama
(not the one Harlan Ellison saw in Rio, but you get the idea...)
“the bottom line of what I've rambled on about here...
[is] to tell you that as night approaches we are all
aliens, down here on this alien Earth. To tell you that
not Christ nor man nor governments of men will save
you. To tell you that writers about tomorrow must stop
living in yesterday and work from their hearts and their
guts and their courage to tell us about tomorrow,
before all the tomorrows are stolen away from us. To
tell you no one will come down from the mountain to
save your lily-white hide or your black ass. God is
within you. Save yourselves.

“Otherwise, why would you have traveled all this
way . . . just to be alone?”
                             --Harlan Ellison, Introduction
What’s most important about open source




       “The Cornucopia of the Commons”
   Open Source
   Web 2.0
   “Crowdsourcing”
   “the Commons”
   Gov 2.0




 All about what happens when we work together
 And about systems that make it easier for us to
  work together
Work on stuff that matters
   Photo by Jeff Kubina: http://www.flickr.com/photos/kubina/47264499/in/set-1030659/
Not an investment bubble - a reality bubble!

  Financial crises
  Worst income inequality since the Gilded
   Age
  Oil price shock
  Global warming
  Decline in science literacy & education
  Water scarcity
  Exotic diseases
  Aging populations and soaring health costs
  Decline in economic competitiveness and
   innovation
  Dysfunctional political system
Mission 4636
“the Adhocracy”
“We the people...”
Vending Machine Government




                             Vending Machine Gov concept from Donald Kettl:
                             The Next Government of the United States
We Need to Do More Than Shake
the Vending Machine!




             http://image06.webshots.com/6/2/57/50/190125750NgQXwu_ph.jpg
Connecting the dots
Build a better world
Together
“Otherwise, why would you have traveled
all this way . . . just to be alone?”
http://codeforamerica.org

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Oscon2010 Keynote

  • 1. Thinking Hard About the Future Tim O’Reilly July 21, 2010 OSCON
  • 2. “I’m an inventor. I became interested in long term trends because an invention has to make sense in the world in which it is finished, not the world in which it is started.” -Ray Kurzweil
  • 3. “The future is here. It’s just not evenly distributed yet.” - William Gibson
  • 6. The Black Christ of Portobelo, Panama (not the one Harlan Ellison saw in Rio, but you get the idea...)
  • 7. “the bottom line of what I've rambled on about here... [is] to tell you that as night approaches we are all aliens, down here on this alien Earth. To tell you that not Christ nor man nor governments of men will save you. To tell you that writers about tomorrow must stop living in yesterday and work from their hearts and their guts and their courage to tell us about tomorrow, before all the tomorrows are stolen away from us. To tell you no one will come down from the mountain to save your lily-white hide or your black ass. God is within you. Save yourselves. “Otherwise, why would you have traveled all this way . . . just to be alone?” --Harlan Ellison, Introduction
  • 8. What’s most important about open source “The Cornucopia of the Commons”
  • 9.  Open Source  Web 2.0  “Crowdsourcing”  “the Commons”  Gov 2.0  All about what happens when we work together  And about systems that make it easier for us to work together
  • 10. Work on stuff that matters
  • 11.  Photo by Jeff Kubina: http://www.flickr.com/photos/kubina/47264499/in/set-1030659/
  • 12. Not an investment bubble - a reality bubble!  Financial crises  Worst income inequality since the Gilded Age  Oil price shock  Global warming  Decline in science literacy & education  Water scarcity  Exotic diseases  Aging populations and soaring health costs  Decline in economic competitiveness and innovation  Dysfunctional political system
  • 13.
  • 16.
  • 17.
  • 18.
  • 19.
  • 21. Vending Machine Government Vending Machine Gov concept from Donald Kettl: The Next Government of the United States
  • 22. We Need to Do More Than Shake the Vending Machine! http://image06.webshots.com/6/2/57/50/190125750NgQXwu_ph.jpg
  • 24. Build a better world
  • 26. “Otherwise, why would you have traveled all this way . . . just to be alone?”

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