This document summarises the findings from a major foresight programme that identified the nature of future social needs and considered how organisations are expected to address these. Undertaken via a combination of research, one-on-one interviews, discussion forums and major workshops held on three continents, this programme has explored multiple perspectives with experts and informed people from over 100 different organisations. The insights were gained as part of a wider project for Barclays Bank plc. that has been building on its current Citizenship platform and looking ahead to shifts and options for change in the world in 2020. This summary is being shared directly with all participants in the discussions as a record of the dialogue and its conclusions. In addition, it is also been made more widely available for continued discussion and feedback.

1.
Connected
Success:
The
Future
of
the
Socially
Valued
Organisa7on
21st
March
2014

2. Context
This
document
summarises
the
findings
from
a
foresight
programme
that
iden7fied
the
nature
of
future
social
needs
and
considered
how
organisa7ons
could
address
these.
Undertaken
via
a
combina7on
of
desk
research,
one-­‐on-­‐one
interviews,
discussion
forums
and
major
workshops
held
on
three
con7nents,
this
programme
explored
mul7ple
perspec7ves
with
experts
and
informed
people
from
over
100
different
organisa7ons.
The
insights
were
gained
as
part
of
a
wider
project
for
Barclays
Bank
plc.
Which
has
been
building
on
its
current
Ci7zenship
plaOorm
and
looking
ahead
to
shiPs
and
op7ons
for
change
to
prepare
for
the
world
in
2020.
This
summary
is
being
shared
directly
with
those
who
par7cipated
in
the
discussions
as
a
record
of
the
dialogue.
In
addi7on,
it
is
also
being
made
available
to
interested
par7es
for
con7nued
discussion
and
feedback.

3. Context
The
approach
taken
for
this
project
was
based
on
that
adopted
for
the
larger
global
Future
Agenda
programme
–
the
world’s
largest
open
foresight
project
to
date.
• Star7ng
with
informed
perspec7ves
gleaned
from
research
and
ini7al
interviews
a
series
of
assump7ons
and
hypotheses
were
developed
and
discussed
within
the
core
team.
• A
series
of
groups
discussions
were
then
used
to
test
thinking
and
gain
new
perspec7ves
from
experts
across
a
number
of
areas
–
from
academics,
philosophers
and
ethnographers
and
leaders
of
social
enterprises
to
economists
and
businesses.
• Revised
perspec7ves
were
then
taken
into
three
major
workshops
in
Johannesburg,
London
and
New
York
were
a
wider
group
of
informed
people
from
mul7ple
organisa7ons
challenged
and
built
upon
each
others
views
to
provide
a
richer,
deeper
view
on
the
future
of
the
socially
valued
organisa7on.
This
document
is
a
synthesis
of
what
we
heard
and
learned
from
these
discussions.

4. Execu/ve
Summary
Society
today
faces
challenges
that
will
become
more
intense
over
the
coming
years.
The
need
for
change
is
broadly
acknowledged
and
we
are
now
entering
a
period
of
transi7on
that
will
involve
hard
choices
requiring
strong
leadership
and
collabora7on.
To
achieve
las7ng
inclusive
growth,
many
now
believe
that
business
and
society
should
align
around
a
wider
agenda,
adop7ng
a
broader
defini7on
of
success
in
order
to
achieve
a
be[er
balance
between
short
and
long
term
gain.
There
are
uncertain7es
concerning
this,
such
as
who
will
lead
and
how,
but
there
is
also
a
general
consensus
that
commercial
organisa7ons
have
the
poten7al
to
take
a
lead
in
establishing
a
future
that
benefits
wider
society.
To
achieve
this,
tough
decisions
need
to
be
made,
a
number
of
which
may
well
lead
to
significant
change
in
the
systems
within
which
many
currently
operate.

5. Contents
This
synthesis
is
comprised
of
six
topics
with
a
suppor7ng
appendix
1.
The
Global
Context
Uncertain7es
and
Scenarios
2. The
World
Today
Progress,
Transi7ons
and
Transforma7on
3. The
World
Tomorrow
Key
Challenges
and
New
Approaches
4. Socially
Valued
Organisa/ons
Context
and
Emerging
Characteris7cs
5. The
Socially
Valued
Organisa/on
in
2020
Being
Part
of
the
Change
6. Implica/ons
for
Organisa/ons
Ten
Ques7ons
Appendix
32
Characteris7cs
of
Socially
Valued
Organisa7ons
Sources
and
Resources

6. 1.
The
Global
Context
Uncertain7es
and
Scenarios

7. Dealing
with
an
uncertain
future
In
making
sense
of
future
uncertain7es,
scenarios
are
a
well-­‐regarded
way
to
help
us
to
explore
the
poten7al
implica7ons
of
different
futures
and
so
enable
us
to
make
be[er
decisions

8. Looking
ahead
many
see
two
key
uncertain/es
As
organisa7ons
explore
emerging
drivers
of
global
change
and
consider
how
they
can
be
addressed,
fundamental
ques7ons
are
being
raised
about
the
nature
of
future
growth
and
how
macro
goals
will
be
set
and
agreed
Defini/on
of
growth
How
goals
are
set
Narrow
Broad
Global
Collabora-on
Fragmented
and
Local

9. Alterna/ve
views
of
the
future
An
associated
scenarios
framework
explores
the
key
uncertain7es
about
the
future
of
the
global
economy
–
how
goals
are
set
and
how
growth
is
defined.
It
provides
four
alterna7ve
views
of
the
future
Global
Collabora7on
Fragmented
and
Local
Narrow
Broad
Defini/on
of
Growth
How
Goals
Are
Set

10. 2020
global
scenarios
These
scenarios
provide
four
equally
plausible
but
different
contexts
within
which
organisa7ons
may
have
to
operate
in
order
to
help
to
successfully
address
the
challenges
that
society
faces
and
deliver
value
to
society
Global
Elites
A
world
dominated
by
powerful
elites
who
seek
to
protect
the
status
quo
and
to
con7nue
to
achieve
economic
growth
for
themselves
New
Mul/lateralism
A
world
of
global
alignment
and
collabora7on
focused
on
long-­‐term,
global
goal
and
the
need
to
achieve
sustainable
inclusive
growth
Na/onal
Self
Interest
A
world
of
diffused
power
with
localized
self-­‐interest
the
priority.
A
focus
on
economic
growth
and
na7onal
resource
security
delays
the
addressing
of
global
societal
stresses
Networked
Scale
An
interconnected
world
where
change
is
pursued
through
collec7ve
ac7on
and
is
focused
on
addressing
the
local
impact
of
societal
and
environmental
stresses
Global
Collabora7on
Fragmented
and
Local
Narrow
Broad
Defini/on
of
Growth
How
Goals
Are
Set

11. 2.
The
World
Today
Progress,
Transi7ons
and
Transforma7on

12. We
have
already
made
significant
progress
on
some
big
challenges
In
response
to
the
UN
Millennium
Development
Goals,
millions
have
been
raised
out
of
poverty,
child
death
rates
have
fallen
steadily
and
the
devasta7ng
impact
of
diseases
such
as
malaria
have
been
reduced

13. However
there
is
s/ll
much
to
be
done
Many
agree
that
with
rising
popula7ons
and
increasing
resource
constraints,
we
face
growing
societal
and
environmental
challenges
that
are
pucng
increasing
pressure
on
the
world
as
a
whole

14. Today
the
global
economy
is
also
changing
and
under
stress
The
centres
of
economic
power
are
shiPing
to
ci7es,
global
corpora7ons
and
Asia.
Add
in
the
fallout
from
the
financial
crisis
in
the
West
and
we
see
rising
inequality
in
most
regions
–
the
rich
/
poor
gap
in
increasing

15. We
face
a
paradox
of
interconnec/on
and
fragmenta/on
We
live
in
a
world
that
is
more
interconnected
than
ever
before
but
is
also
becoming
increasingly
fragmented
leading
to
a
need
for
greater
collabora7on
and
leadership
across
different
parts
of
society

16. 3.
The
World
Tomorrow
Key
Challenges
and
New
Approaches

17. Future
Challenges
Looking
forward
to
2020,
many
agree
that
society
will
be
facing
a
number
of
issues
that
can
be
summarised
by
three
areas
of
probable
systemic
stress:
–
for
the
environment,
for
society
and
for
business
A
Changing
Business
Environment
Increased
Societal
Stresses
Increased
Environmental
Stresses

18. Addressing
these
challenges
will
require
significant
change
As
acceptance
of
the
scale
of
the
challenges
we
face
builds,
there
is
growing
global
recogni7on
of
the
need
for
a
collec7ve,
transforma7onal
shiP
to
achieve
any
real
progress:
for
many,
business
as
usual
is
not
an
op7on
Proposed
UN
Post
2015
Development
Goals

19. More
people
are
ques/oning
the
role
of
global
organisa/ons
As
a
result
people
are
openly
asking
about
the
balance
between
‘value’
and
‘values’
alongside
the
role
and
purpose
of
some
of
the
larger
organisa7ons
in
crea7ng
value
for
society

20. Transforma/on
requires
new
forms
of
collabora/on
Transforming
the
global
economy
will
require
more
effec7ve
collabora7on
between
government,
business
and
civil
society
in
ways
appropriate
for
the
21st
century
–
sharing
resources,
capital
and
intellectual
property

21. Future
growth
will
demand
a
new
frame
of
reference
To
support
inclusive
growth
and
taking
a
longer
term
view,
new
business
repor7ng
standards
may
well
accelerate
the
adop7on
of
a
wider
set
of
measures
of
impact
and
value
across
all
business
sectors

22. 4.
Socially
Valued
Organisa/ons
Context
and
Emerging
Issues

23. Organisa/ons
helping
to
tackle
societal
issues
is
nothing
new
In
the
past
large
organisa7ons
have
successfully
addressed
societal
challenges
by
understanding
how
they
can
best
influence
the
wider
community
while
s7ll
maintaining
commercial
success

24. Some
organisa/ons
have
become
disconnected
from
the
success
of
society
In
recent
years
the
success
of
several
companies
and
sectors
has
become
disconnected
from
the
success
of
society.
These
companies
have
made
gains
which
are
financially
independent
from
the
progress
of
society

25. Business
systems
need
to
adapt
and
change
Today,
the
business
world
largely
op7mizes
economic
growth,
transfers
some
of
the
costs
of
doing
business
to
society
and
allows
for
inequitable
sharing
of
benefit:
there
is
a
‘priva7sa7on
of
profit
and
socialisa7on
of
risk’

26. Being
successful
and
being
socially
valued
However,
there
are
several
organisa7ons
taking
a
lead
back
to
a
moral
‘true
north’
that
are
seen
globally
as
not
only
doing
the
right
thing
but
also
doing
it
at
scale
–
and
are
perceived
to
be
both
socially
valued
and
socially
valuable

27. Three
founda/ons
of
the
socially
valued
organisa/on
From
the
research
and
mul7ple
discussions
with
different
groups
around
the
world,
three
core
founda7ons
have
emerged
as
key
for
organisa7ons
wishing
to
become
socially
valued
Socially
Valued
Doing
the
right
thing
Doing
the
right
thing
well
Being
judged
by
society

28. Doing
the
right
thing
From
these
discussions,
we
can
see
a
number
of
important
characteris7cs
of
socially
valued
organisa7ons.
These
can
be
grouped
into
two
areas
-­‐
beliefs
and
behaviours
Beliefs
in
doing
the
right
thing
Behaviours
in
doing
the
right
thing
well

29. Doing
the
right
thing
well
In
terms
of
execu7on,
there
are
four
main
a[ributes
that
help
organisa7ons
have
clarity
of
purpose,
a
long
term
focus,
the
ability
to
make
consistent
decisions
and
build
capacity
Meet
both
short
term
and
long
term
needs
Achieve
inclusive
societal
progress
that
benefits
all
Build
capacity
and
resilience
to
risks
and
shocks
Ensure
progress
is
not
at
the
expense
of
future
genera7ons

30. Being
judged
by
society
Ul7mately,
no
ma[er
how
much
an
organisa7on
can
plan
and
act
to
deliver
benefit,
the
arbiter
of
what
is
valued
is
down
to
society
itself
–
the
external
world
judges
who
is
valued
most

31. The
emerging
view
from
around
the
world
In
discussions,
different
emphasis
was
placed
on
varied
characteris7cs
as
different
socie7es
expect
different
things
for
the
future.
Of
these,
eight
appear
to
have
global
relevance
-­‐
being
seen
as
key
in
mul7ple
regions
Enlightened
Leaders
Viable
Business
Models
Know
Their
Purpose
Mul/-­‐capitals
Total
Transparency
Authen/c
Organisa/ons
Connected
Success
Delivering
on
Dreams

32. 5.
The
Socially
Valued
Organisa/on
in
2020
Being
Part
of
The
Change

33. Be
part
of
the
solu/on
Experts
at
our
workshops
felt
that
socially
valued
organisa7ons
will
be
seen
to
be
ac7vely
contribu7ng
to
societal
success
by
addressing
elements
of
the
three
big
challenges
and
helping
society
navigate
through
the
uncertain7es

34. What
they
believe
How
they
behave
How
they
operate
How
they
measure
success
Business
has
to
be
a
part
of
society
-­‐
and
not
apart
from
it
Many
agree
that,
as
some
already
do
today,
in
the
future
successful
organisa7ons
will
not
only
know
how
they
should
operate,
what
they
should
believe
and
how
to
behave
but
will
also
be
clear
on
measuring
impact

35. Socially
valued
organisa/ons
in
each
scenario
Given
future
uncertainty,
socially
valued
organisa7ons
have
to
be
able
to
apply
themselves
in
the
most
relevant
way
in
the
different
scenarios
and
so
ensure
that
their
beliefs
and
behaviours
align
with
the
zeitgeist
Global
Elites
A
world
dominated
by
powerful
elites
who
seek
to
protect
the
status
quo
and
to
con7nue
to
achieve
economic
growth
A
New
Mul/lateralism
A
world
of
global
alignment
and
collabora7on
focused
on
long-­‐term,
global
goal
and
the
need
to
achieve
sustainable
inclusive
growth
Na/onal
Self
Interest
A
world
of
diffused
power
where
na7onal
self
interest
take
priority.
The
focus
on
economic
growth
and
na7onal
resource
security
leads
to
delays
in
addressing
global
societal
and
environmental
stresses.
Networked
Scale
An
interconnected
world
where
change
is
pursued
through
collec7ve
societal
ac7on
focused
on
addressing
the
local
impact
of
societal
and
environmental
stresses
Global
Collabora7on
Fragmented
and
Local
Narrow
Broad
Defini7on
of
Growth
How
Goals
Are
Set
Global
Elites
–
Respected
Leader
Enlightened
leaders
that
can
cooperate
to
drive
systemic
change
by
taking
a
stance
based
on
a
clear
point
of
view,
supported
by
viable
business
models
that
demonstrate
the
benefits
of
change.
By
earning
the
right
to
par7cipate
in
discussions
through
consistent
delivery
of
societal
value
they
are
able
to
influence
others
to
contribute
to
societal
success
and
so
drive
change
they
believe
in.
Na/onal
Self
Interest
–
Valued
Partner
Leaders
who
recognise
the
impact
of
decisions
on
the
future
success
of
the
socie7es
of
which
they
are
a
part
and
their
responsibility
to
fill
the
societal
gaps
leP
by
government
and
to
speak
out
on
issues
that
ma[er.
Whilst
global
companies
are
able
to
use
their
scale
to
help
achieve
na7onal
objec7ves
whilst
keeping
in
mind
the
bigger
picture,
all
recognise
the
need
to
create
more
than
economic
value
and
to
protect
and
enhance
the
local
environment
and
to
contribute
to
global
goals.
New
Mul/culturalism
–
Trusted
Partner
Organisa7ons
that
are
open,
transparent
and
ac7vely
seek
to
collaborate
and
partner
with
different
stakeholders
in
order
to
contribute
to
agreed
global
objec7ves
through
prac7cal
local
ac7ons.
They
are
consistent
and
balanced
in
their
decision
making,
are
clear
on
how
they
connect
their
success
to
social
progress
and
redeploy
and
reconfigure
their
assets
to
where
they
can
best
add
value.
Networked
Scale
–
Trusted
Advisor
Organisa7ons
that
act
consistently
to
create
shared
value
through
long
term
collabora7ons
and
partnership.
By
having
a
track
record
of
delivering
tangible
societal
benefit
they
earn
the
trust
and
the
right
to
align
and
connect
others
and
so
achieve
systemic
change.
Working
at
the
local
level
to
help
individuals
and
communi7es
achieve
their
aspira7ons
and
realise
their
poten7al
they
oPen
create
most
societal
value
by
helping
others
to
do
the
right
thing.

36. Many
conclude
that
change
is
needed
at
a
systemic
level
Individual
organisa7ons
can
only
do
so
much
-­‐
achieving
global
success
will
require
resecng
of
several
business
environments
including
the
purpose
of
a
business,
how
success
is
measured
and
how
the
financial
economy
operates
Four
key
shis
need
to
happen
at
scale
across
all
sectors
for
real
systemic
change:
Organisa7ons
to
be
accountable
to
stakeholders,
not
just
shareholders
Success
to
be
measured
across
a
broader
set
of
measures
Success
to
be
measured
over
a
longer
7me
horizon
Business
to
bear
full
cost
of
externali7es
and
risks

37. 6.
Implica/ons
for
Organisa/ons
Ten
Ques7ons

38. Q1.
Iden/fying
and
Responding
to
Challenges
Do
we
ac7vely
seek
to
understand
the
big
challenges
that
are
facing
society?

39. Q2.
Mee/ng
Societal
Expecta/ons
How
well
do
we
understand
the
implica7ons
of
what
future
society
will
expect
of
us?

40. Q3.
Culture
and
Engagement
How
is
our
strategy
led
by
the
needs
of
society
and
the
communi7es
we
serve?

41. Q4.
Society-­‐focused
Capabili/es
How
do
we
best
use
our
exis7ng
capabili7es
to
create
new
sources
of
societal
value?

42. Q5.
Influence
and
Obliga/on
Are
we
sufficiently
influen7al
in
shaping
our
regulatory
and
opera7ng
environment?

43. Q6.
Collabora/on
and
Leadership
Does
our
organisa7on
know
where
it
will
lead
or
collaborate
and
where
it
will
not?

44. Q7.
Decision-­‐making
How
well
do
our
decision-­‐making
processes
embrace
societal
needs?

45. Q8.
Delivery
Does
our
focus
on
societal
needs
sufficiently
guide
our
ac7ons?

46. Q10.
Reputa/on
Management
How
will
we
safeguard
our
reputa7on
in
the
future?

47. Appendix
The
32
Characteris7cs
of
Socially
Valued
Organisa7ons
To
download
a
PDF
of
the
details
of
the
32
characteris7cs
of
socially
valued
organisa7ons
detailed
in
workshops
and
discussions
please
follow
this
link::
www.slideshare.net/7mjones72/socially-­‐valued-­‐organisa7ons-­‐an-­‐ini7al-­‐view-­‐10-­‐01-­‐14

48. Sources
and
Resources
B
Corps
h[p://www.bcorpora7on.net
BBC
-­‐
Davos:
22
facts
people
should
know
h[p://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-­‐europe-­‐25836087
Chris7ne
Lagarde:
A
New
Mul7lateralism
for
the
21st
Century
h[ps://www.imf.org/external/np/speeches/2014/020314.htm
Brundtland
Commission
‘Our
Common
Future’
h[p://conspect.nl/pdf/Our_Common_Future-­‐Brundtland_Report_1987.pdf
Future
Agenda
–
The
World
in
2020
h[p://www.futureagenda.org
IIRC
Integrated
Repor7ng
h[p://www.theiirc.org
IMF
warns
on
threat
of
income
inequality
h[p://www.P.com/cms/s/0/b3462520-­‐805b-­‐11e3-­‐853f-­‐00144feab7de.html
Jospeh
S7glitz
-­‐
Freefall:
America,
Free
Markets,
and
the
Sinking
of
the
World
Economy
h[p://www.amazon.com/Freefall-­‐America-­‐Markets-­‐Sinking-­‐Economy/dp/0393338959
Mark
Carney
Interview
-­‐
August
2013
BBC
Radio
4
h[p://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01dvgk8
Michael
Porter
–
Crea7ng
Shared
Value
h[p://hbr.org/2011/01/the-­‐big-­‐idea-­‐crea7ng-­‐shared-­‐value/ar/1

49. Sources
and
Resources
Niall
Fitzgerald
and
Mandy
Cormack
–
The
Role
of
Business
in
Society
h[p://www.hks.harvard.edu/m-­‐rcbg/CSRI/publica7ons/report_12_CGI%20Role%20of%20Business%20in%20Society%20Report%20FINAL%2010-­‐03-­‐06.pdf
OECD:
Divided
We
Stand:
Why
Inequality
Keeps
Rising
h[p://www.oecd.org/social/soc/dividedwestandwhyinequalitykeepsrising.htm
Oxfam
-­‐
Working
for
the
Few:
Poli7cal
capture
and
economic
inequality
h[p://www.oxfam.org/en/policy/working-­‐for-­‐the-­‐few-­‐economic-­‐inequality
Post
2015
Development
Agenda
h[p://www.post2015hlp.org
Shell
Scenarios
h[p://www.shell.com/global/future-­‐energy/scenarios.html
Unilever
Sustainable
Living
Plan
h[p://www.unilever.co.uk/sustainable-­‐living/uslp/
UN
Millennium
Development
Goals
h[p://www.un.org/millenniumgoals/
UN
Popula7on
Data
h[p://data.un.org/Default.aspx
WHO
–
Data
and
Sta7s7cs
h[p://www.who.int/research/en/
WHO
view
on
Alcohol
h[p://www.who.int/topics/alcohol_drinking/en/

50. Future Agenda
84 Brook Street
London
W1K 5EH
+44 203 0088 141
www.futureagenda.org
@futureagenda
tim.jones@futureagenda.org
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