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Financials + Scenarios Expected Return Getting Good Designs Built

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Financials + Scenarios

Expected Return
Ignoring fees to calculate the expected return of loan interest and equity
Outcomes
Replay loan, no Replay loan, 50% Replay loan, 100% of Replay loan,
Fail after 3 years Fail after 4 years equity of equity equity 150% of equity

Percentage of loan repayment 60% 80% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Average Investment $ 8,333,333 $ 8,333,333 $ 8,333,333 $ 8,333,333 $ 8,333,333 $ 8,333,333

Loan repaid $ 5,000,000 $ 6,666,667 $ 8,333,333 $ 8,333,333 $ 8,333,333 $ 8,333,333
Interest gained $ 990,000 $ 1,320,000 $ 1,650,000 $ 1,650,000 $ 1,650,000 $ 1,650,000
Probability of outcome 2% 3% 5% 15% 65% 10%
Expected value of loan repayment $ 119,800 $ 239,600 $ 499,167 $ 1,497,500 $ 6,489,167 $ 998,333


Equity multiple 0 0 0 2 4 6
Potential equity $ - $ - $ - $ 16,666,667 $ 33,333,333 $ 50,000,000
Probability of outcome 2% 3% 5% 15% 65% 10%
Expected value of equity $ - $ - $ - $ 2,500,000 $ 21,666,667 $ 5,000,000


Expected value of loan and equity $ 119,800 $ 239,600 $ 499,167 $ 3,997,500 $ 28,155,833 $ 5,998,333

Expected return $ 39,010,233




• Numbers can be sketches and prototypes
• Financial models are based on assumptions about the
future of the product
• Scenarios can be written in Excel

Veröffentlicht in: Business, Technologie
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