2. By Tim Forrest, Head of Communications Planning at OMD
“The distinction between the past, present and future is only a stubbornly persistent illusion” [Einstein]
When I read the social media and scenario whitepaper by this fluid world, it struck me that the cynic
might say it is easy to be wise after the event, in this case that comment would not so much ring true
as ring hollow
this fluid world have to my mind very much envisioned the future by rewriting the past, one day at a
time
The scale and scope of this highly engaging story is, when broken down to its component parts, an
instructive manual for creating a process that conditions operational readiness for as yet undefined
scenarios
I don’t believe it is as important to anticipate a specific scenario, as to have a broad process in place
for dealing with rising situations. The process that this paper articulates implies a good deal of
change for many companies, and something of a leap of faith
However, is it not the point of scenario planning to accept and anticipate future change both
unknown and beyond control? – beyond control only if you expect to respond within the confines of
what you historically have done
It is therefore highly appropriate to end as I began with further wise words from Einstein. Insanity:
doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results
foreword
this fluid world
3. the events that unfolded during the BP
oil crisis of 2010 made us question what
would happen if a public facing
organisation, such as BP, had a different
approach and attitude to positioning,
collaboration, communication and
transparency
this fluid world
4. this fluid world
due to this we spent the summer of 2010
developing an alternative scenario based
on a combination of the changing
communications world we live in, the
thinking, tools and methodologies of this
fluid world, and learnings from the BP
case
the tool used to arrive at our alternative
scenario is known as scenario planning
5. scenario planning is a method for learning about
the future by understanding the nature and
impact of the most uncertain and important
driving forces affecting our world
scenario planning works under the assumption
that the future can differ greatly from what we
know today
the purpose is to portray a variety of potential
outcomes, or an ideal outcome, by applying a
combination of trends, best practice and
available resources in today's world
this fluid world
6. the thought processes involved in getting to the
scenario has the dual purpose of increasing
knowledge of the communications environment,
and to widen an organisation's perception of
possible future events
the end goal of designing a scenario is for an
organisation to ask itself, “what do we need to do
to be prepared for different outcomes, or what
do we need to put in place for this ideal scenario
to become reality?”. the answer is used in building
strategies to manage a different picture of the
future
this fluid world
7. Advanced Energy Futures (AEF) is one of
the largest energy companies in the world
with 310.37 billion in revenue*, 94,100
employees*, and numerous oil wells and
pipelines across the globe
*Source: AEF Annual Report 2007
2008
this fluid world
8. 18th – an AEF pipeline ruptures off the
coast of Alaska, backup equipment kicks in
and the risk of cataclysmic explosion is
avoided
this raised a question internally as to AEF’s
ability to respond to such a disaster
due to this, a crisis meeting is scheduled
september
this fluid world
9. 23rd – the crisis meeting is held at AEF
headquarters in Atlanta
Simon Davies, the recently hired CTO, argues that,
“From a communications perspective, the digitally
interactive world of social media can magnify a
crisis exponentially, and at an alarmingly fast
speed”
he suggests this requires AEF to learn and adapt
to a new communications landscape in order to
handle any potential communications crisis
september
this fluid world
10. 27th – AEF seeks advice from Clarity Tank, a London
based firm with expertise in business and
communications strategy, on how to harness social
media and how to best handle a social media crisis
the initiative is driven by Emma Baker, CMO of AEF and
the meeting is attended by AEF’s CEO Bob Young, CTO
Simon Davies, Head of PR Fiona Marshall and
the Head of Engineering Stuart Fallows
october
this fluid world
11. 1st – over a period of five weeks, a strategic
development programme is designed by Clarity Tank
in collaboration with AEF stakeholders
the programme is a combination of the consulting
firm’s two core social media products; ‘use’ aimed at
helping organisations create a social media strategy
that achieves brand and business objectives, and
‘diffuse’ which ensures an organisation’s ability to
address and resolve a social media crisis in a
beneficial and timely way
november
this fluid world
12. the overall initiative is designed to establish full
understanding of the risks, opportunities,
implications and realities of social media, whilst also
creating an improved communications and crisis
management strategy
november
this fluid world
13. 5th – the initiative will sculpture the media training for
spokespeople, including Bob Young, in order to ensure
future public statements and reactions are suited to
an age of rapid editing, publishing and sharing of
information by official and unofficial sources
november
this fluid world
14. 8th – Clarity Tank recommend to AEF that, in order to
be able to harness the belief and support of people
moving forward, AEF needs to be relevant to the
general public
Clarity Tank suggests that the most powerful way to
do this is for AEF to stand for something that people
can identify with, and to, in a collaborative way, define a
clear and relevant external purpose
reflecting this
november
this fluid world
15. 10th – the decision is made to gather a group of
influential people, including an AEF representative, for a
two-day workshop facilitated by Clarity Tank at a
neutral location in London
the purpose of the workshop is to create a pledge of
combined activity and direction moving forward, in
addition to defining a new mission statement for AEF;
one that is closely in line with the organisations
environmental position moving forward
a short-list of potential attendees is created and
invites sent out
november
this fluid world
16. 15th – news of the planned
collaborative meeting starts
trending on twitter with 132 blogs
covering the story in a positive way
influential environmental blogger
Steven Henshaw writes “It seems like
AEF has made it their mission to
work with others to enable combined
thinking”
november
this fluid world
17. 17th – a story appears in the New York Times written
by Susan Timon, a guest columnist from the
humanitarian site evry1.com, discussing the invitation
she received three days prior
Susan calls AEF “Brave and forward-thinking” and
pledges “Full support for an open discussion of mutual
benefit”
november
this fluid world
18. 5th – the workshop is a success
attendees include the U.S Secretary of State, CEO’s
of three global energy companies, leaders of the
largest environmental organisations, eminent
research scientists, key journalists and bloggers along
with technology experts from all over the world
the group is named The Collective
december
this fluid world
19. a pledge by The Collective to drive initiatives benefiting
the environment is finalised for joint release via news
wires and communities by the morning
AEF’s mission statement is agreed as being “To
collaborate with the goal of providing the best energy
sources for the world, whilst protecting and bettering
the environment”
december
this fluid world
20. 6th – the US President, Marie
Montgomery states in a press
conference “The Secretary of
Homeland Security was present in a
meeting of minds” and that “I am
pledging my full support to the
efforts of The Collective with whom
we are proudly involved”
december
this fluid world
21. 17th – there are over 4000 stories on the web about
The Collective
thousands of comments are left on hundreds of
forum boards
the main news headlines are all positive, one carrying
the headline “AEF & Friends become The Collective - a
mission without ego”
december
this fluid world
22. 20th – a blog post appears on a satirical comedy site
making a joke about AEF and The Collective mission
statement. within a few hours 441 comments are
made in support of the AEF approach
the original satire is drowned in positivity, and quickly
forgotten about
december
this fluid world
23. 26th – the AEF mission
statement, supplemented
by The Collective pledge,
drives an up-lift for AEF’s
stock value of 19% over the
course of 18 days
January 2009
this fluid world
24. 27th – AEF distribute a company press
release regarding the stock valuation rise
they speak of being “Very pleased with the
growth” but maintain that “The added
value in the company is also for
reimbursement into the efforts and
solutions we are collectively working on to
ensure we can find more sustainable
energy sources and protect our
environment - everyone needs to benefit
from this success”
january
this fluid world
25. 28th – the press release is
referenced across the main
news sites and featured in
broadsheets all over the world
the news programmes
concentrate on AEF's intention to
share the benefit
the stock continues to grow in
value
january
this fluid world
26. 1st – to bring the new vision to life, and to
harness the power of the general public, AEF
launches a global crowd sourcing initiative
orchestrated by Clarity Tank
the goal is to outreach for ideas,
suggestions, technologies and research with
the intention to act as a global resource and
discussion around energy, the environment
and people's lives
february
this fluid world
27. this manifests as SolvMachine, an interactive
website (www.SolvMachine.com), where
statements of intent and ideas for bettering
energy sources and environmental initiatives,
can be registered by professional and
amateur collaborators all over the world
a desktop widget is also released along with an
iPhone, Android and Java application enabling
people to create, edit and share ideas relating
to energy and the environment
february
this fluid world
28. 4th & 5th – Clarity Tank runs a two-
day workshop about crisis
management in communications at
the AEF New York office. the
workshop is attended by key internal
stakeholders
it is agreed that a core team be
created, and trained, to rapidly
deploy prepared strategies in the
event of a disaster
february
this fluid world
29. 13th – eight people from across AEF with links to
PR, Marketing, Business Development and
Technology are appointed as The Interaction
Team
a virtual situation room is created by Clarity
Tank in a secure shared online space
incorporating monitoring tools, video calling,
document storage and reporting software
february
this fluid world
30. the role of The Interaction Team is to be
in conversations with the public, and to
manage the monitoring of conversations,
in order to feed back into the rest of the
organisation through the virtual situation
room
february
this fluid world
31. 15th – in accordance with the communication
crisis programme Clarity Tank creates a flag
system within the monitoring and reporting
dashboard
the system flags real-time levels of sentiment,
inaccurate or overtly critical statements
on the dashboard screen a red flag indicates
urgent action, orange a mild issue and a green
flag indicates positivity
february
this fluid world
32. 17th – crisis guidelines are created enabling AEF
to react appropriately in the event of issues
arising that could have a negative impact on AEF,
or any of the initiatives it is associated with
these guidelines include direction on the most
suitable tone of voice, blog responses, press
releases and communication with partners
and stakeholders in the event
of a crisis
february
this fluid world
33. 19th – the AEF board work with
Clarity Tank to create a fast
sign-off process for orange
and red flags that circumvents
standard procedure
february
this fluid world
34. the sign-off process works as follows:
the orange flag process triggers enhanced
monitoring of discussions and feeds in positive
messaging from influencers
the red flag process is in six steps that take as little
as six hours in total to complete
1. red flag identified
2. the Interaction Team are alerted
3. red flag cross-matched with crisis guidelines
4. adjustment of pre-designed communication
5. action authorised
6. action deployed
february
this fluid world
35. 20th – internal staff, external influencers and all
partners are informed and trained on how to alert
The Interaction Team to situations
this is termed The Interaction Protocol
february
this fluid world
36. 22nd – a wide scale press, TV,
poster, online and mobile
campaign for SolvMachine goes
live across multiple regions,
promoting the unilateral initiative
and urging people to get involved
with the tag line:
“We’re all in this together”
calls to action lead to
SolvMachine’s website, and an SMS
short-code enables people to
either download the application
or register for text alerts
february
this fluid world
37. 4th – downloads of the SolvMachine
widget reaches 368,000 in just under
5 weeks
the iPhone application is
recommended in a tweet by the
famous comedian, Peter Tuck, to 1.5
million followers. thousands retweet,
reaching over 50 million users
within 48 hours, the SolvMachine
application reaches 1 million
downloads across all platforms
march
this fluid world
38. 9th – the leading technology
review site, revwr.com, calls
SolvMachine:
“Perhaps the most important
application ever”
march
this fluid world
39. 12th – by now, the organisations in
The Collective are running over 50
agreed initiatives in support of
the mandate
AEF is attached to each one as a
sponsor and runs ten key
initiatives of its own
march
this fluid world
40. 15th – Bob Young says on Sky News:
“The support of Governments throughout
the world has shown the validity in our
mandate. We will continue to endorse
initiatives that propel this forward and
embrace the close working relationship we
have with the political, environmental,
scientific and technological partners,
combined with the general public”
april
this fluid world
41. 5th – Bob Young has a vision to turn the crowd-
sourcing tool, SolvMachine, into a scenario
planning tool
with that in mind, Young introduces two new
stakeholders to the consortium:
Evy Akolley from Onsidia and Joan Madeski from
Palo Alto's Institute for Generations
may
this fluid world
42. to enable anyone in the world to
create, edit and share ideas that can
be fed into a scenario planning tool,
Young commissions an effort to
combine SolvMachine with Akolley’s
crowd-sourcing site and Madeski’s
problem-solving games
the goal being to find energy sources and
protect the planet, in addition to preparing
for any potential accident that could lead to
an environmental disaster
may
this fluid world
43. 25th – in support of the upgraded
SolvMachine, Planet of Quest,
Foundville and Seventh Life create
virtual doorways with signposts
directing people into SolvMachine as
an extension to their platforms
may
this fluid world
44. 29th – the environmental, technological and
gaming community spread the news about
the platform tie-up across twitter
over 12,000 developers download the API
code, enabling them to build on the
platform, whilst 27 major bloggers and
journalists take screen grabs and write
about the seamless user experience
may
this fluid world
45. 1st – members of The Collective,
and the public, are making
voluntary weekly donations to
support the increasing number
of initiatives
the people involved in generating
the top ten ideas are rewarded
by being able to assign a
proportion of the donation to a
charity of their choice
june
this fluid world
46. each idea is rated and a summary of
the top ten is published daily across
numerous websites
a full report is sent to The Interaction
Team at AEF for analysis. the content,
with comments, is re-published on the
AEF site: advancedenergyfutures.com
june
this fluid world
47. 2nd – a leading news site
publishes a weekly update
of the selected ideas and
distributed funds
other publishers pick this up
and decide to link the reported
progress to related stories
involving the selected charities
june
this fluid world
48. 3rd – commentators express that
SolvMachine is now a multinational
response mechanism that pools
support from individuals and
organisations to solve scenarios
together
within SolvMachine, The
Interaction Protocol is merged
with the crisis guidelines to
ensure full understanding of how
SolvMachine can be used
june
this fluid world
49. the US President, Marie Montgomery and UK
Prime Minister, Jack Brewer announce at a
joint press conference “We stand shoulder to
shoulder with the AEF and The Collective. 21
Global leaders, ourselves included, are now
interacting with SolvMachine to ensure we are
up to speed with the ideas, creations and
methodologies of all contributors and
collaborators.”
june
this fluid world
50. 6th – Pablo, a 13-year-old student in Mexico
sends a tweet about his daily battle to run a
wildlife sanctuary on his uncle’s ranch, close
to Rio Gande, where he seeks to protect 'at
risk' animals from the elements
he adds several hashtags, including #AEF and
#SolvMachine, to the tweet
this activity is immediately picked up by The
Interaction Team on their twitter stream
june
this fluid world
51. 7th – the tweet is distributed to The Collective
and one of the technology partners offers to
set up a short-code that allows people to
donate by sending an SMS
by the following day, the short-code is being
distributed all over twitter and donations
rapidly increase
june
this fluid world
52. 8th – the story is picked up by Sky News who flies
a reporter to Mexico to interview Pablo
pictures of the boy showing the reporter
around the wildlife sanctuary, describing what
he is planning to do with the donations, are
broadcasted all over the world
Pablo is quoted as saying “Large corporations
can really make a positive difference – thank
you for all your support!”
june
this fluid world
53. 5th – directions to the SolvMachine
have been seen within games by
millions of players. over a hundred
experts get involved, on a daily
basis, in the discussion and
modelling of the best collaborative
ideas, solutions and missions
each one is rated, and a shortlist
summary of the top ten is
published daily – this is sent in full
to The Interaction Team at AEF
july
this fluid world
54. 12th – Bob Young says to Time
Magazine “We have been delighted
with the development and input into
SolvMachine. For us it is built into
everyday business, but I am told by
many other organisations that this
is fast becoming a scenario planning
tool they can use in collaboration
with the wisdom of the crowds to
solve environmental and energy
issues”
july
this fluid world
55. 16th – Tom Ford, CEO of the Worldwide
Foundation of Wildlife Protection, confirms
Bob Young’s claim in a BBC interview where
he states: “SolvMachine enables us to assess
and prioritise the top initiatives to consider
in terms of wildlife protection in all
continents. old and new activists,
researchers and scientists are encouraged
to help out”
Ford finishes with The Collective’s slogan;
“We’re all in this together”
july
this fluid world
56. 18th – conversations about
SolvMachine are now taking place on
16 Facebook groups
major brands around the world are
also getting involved creating their
own platforms; among them the
American Access ‘Open Place’, the
Erolssin ‘Thinking Forward’ site and in
the HBM ‘Smarter Universe’
community
july
this fluid world
57. 20th – the main environmental blogs facilitate
around 3000 comments a day
most commentators are also adding insight
into SolvMachine and act as self-appointed
moderators and quality control officers by
ensuring negative, slanderous or illegitimate
content is removed
new findings are published, tweeted, discussed
whilst being monitored and interacted with by
The Interaction Team
july
this fluid world
58. 4th – the constant cycle of
monitoring continues, covering
internal developments, public
sentiment and the activities of
environmental organisations,
bloggers and other influencers
august
this fluid world
59. 7th – an issue grows online
the community is questioning
whether AEF is financially and
procedurally set up to action
any of the scenarios from
SolvMachine, threatening its
credibility
this is raised as
an orange flag
august
this fluid world
60. The Interaction Team responds
immediately by publishing their
crisis and resource plan, adding:
“We welcome any collaborators
willing to help implement scenarios
with us to change their profile
setting to ‘willing collaborator’, we
will then involve them in future
conversations about existing and
new projects we can work on
together”
august
this fluid world
61. 20th – AEF announces its intention to close down the
Freshpool Skyline, an exploratory drilling rig in the Gulf
of Mexico, with a view to open it soon after as a
commercial well
technical and strategic information of the well, and
its surroundings, are fed into the SolvMachine
scenario modelling commences by ad hoc teams in
order to detect any possible issues with the plan
september
this fluid world
62. 5th – the feedback leads to
AEF making some additional
investment in safety and
backup equipment that is
deployed in the areas
identified in the scenarios
october
this fluid world
63. 27th – AEF creates a digital wall of fame where the
names of the contributors and collaborators are
displayed (where permission has been granted), as a
symbolic representation of cooperation
from Times Square in New York, to the Reuters
Building in Canary Wharf and the N Building in Tokyo,
there is a constant ticker of contributors and
collaborators for the world to see and celebrate
january
this fluid world
64. 20th – thousands of political,
economic, sociological and
technological scenarios have
been created by virtual teams
within SolvMachine
february
this fluid world
65. 6th – a news story runs in one of the largest
American broadsheets, Today’s News, quoting a
research scientist Alvaro Sanchez, who claims
that “AEF is hardly involved in any of the
collaborative work, they seem to want the glory
without actually getting involved”
due to the wide influence Sanchez has, this is a
red flag
march
this fluid world
66. within an hour, three of the main
bloggers who have been covering The
Collective’s progress write a reply
proving Mr Sanchez wrong
they correct the false information by
discussing key projects and initiatives
driven by AEF, in addition to the
collaborative progress made to date
march
this fluid world
67. hundreds of supportive
comments have now been posted
the AEF Interaction Team update
their advancedenergyfutures.com
website with a live feed of the
story and ongoing comments
march
this fluid world
68. the Freshpool Skyline drilling rig
explodes off the Louisiana coast
in the Gulf of Mexico
oil starts leaking into the ocean
20th april 9.46pm
this fluid world
69. The Interactive Team is
alerted of the crisis
and all stakeholders,
partners and
influencers are
informed
20th april 9.51pm
this fluid world
70. due to SolvMachine, key
stakeholders are aware of the
potential consequences, and
the relevant solutions that
have been modelled that could
add value in addressing the
crisis
20th april 10.11pm
this fluid world
71. Bob Young rapidly hosts an online
webinar where he honestly explains the
situation, and what action is being taken
to minimise damage
this is broadcasted by all major news
channels across the world
20th april 10.55pm
this fluid world
72. relevant information is
instantly inputted into all
media assets of AEF and
The Collective
there are continuous, real-time
updates to all stakeholders
20th april 11.22pm
this fluid world
73. over a thousand people start working
on new scenarios and solutions which
are instantly fed back into AEF and
partner companies
20th april 11.24pm
this fluid world
74. all major social networking sites and
tools are immersed in support of AEF
and the collaborative efforts in finding
solutions
this combines the thinking of
competitive energy companies,
environmentalists, scientists, legislators,
politicians, bloggers, journalists and the
general public
20th april 11.44pm
this fluid world
75. the partner energy companies provide
extra equipment to aid the relief effort
the US President maintains ongoing
dialogue with The Interaction Team and
The Collective
21st april 6.46am
this fluid world
76. what is needed to find
a solution is in place
and the rest
became history…
22nd april 10.21am
this fluid world
77. Introduce
scenario
other than publicly used platforms, all
characters, and or companies
appearing in this work, are fictitious.
any resemblance to real persons, living
or dead, is purely coincidental
this fluid world
78. so marks the end of our scenario
the thinking, approach and methodology within this document is part of
a range of solutions provided (in real life) by this fluid world
the scenario was built upon the principles of our advanced scenario
planning service, called ‘asp’ – for more detail visit:
www.thisfluidworld.com/asp.html
the social media components were built upon the principles of our social
media protocol services ‘use’ and ‘diffuse’ – for more detail visit:
www.thisfluidworld.com/use.html
www.thisfluidworld.com/diffuse.html
if you would like to discuss this further, please contact:
liri andersson
liri@thisfluidworld.com
jonathan macdonald
jonathan@thisfluidworld.com
this fluid world