2. M ND
I FUL
TI
Cognitive Strategies for
Adapting in the Age of Uncertainty
H NKING
By Mihnea Moldoveanu and Ellen Langer
T he complexity of today’s management environment demands
leaders who can think in creative, new ways. Mihnea
Moldoveanu, assistant professor of Strategic Management at the
Rotman School, and Ellen Langer, professor of Social Psychology
at Harvard, argue that a new way of thinking for the New Economy
calls not only for new theories, but for new ways of thinking about
theories. In this article, they describe cognitive strategies that allow
business leaders to see things in a whole new light.
If the barber shaves only those who do not shave themselves, then who
shaves the barber? It cannot be the barber himself, because he only shaves
those who do not shave themselves. It cannot be someone else, because the
barber shaves all those who do not shave themselves.The logician you call on
your cellular phone tells you this is an example of a paradox – a syllogism that
leads from true premises to untenable conclusions.What to do? What to think?
The solution to the paradox is that no such barber exists.To get to it, however,
you have to break out of the bounds of the problem statement, and consider
the way in which the problem is stated as the problem to be solved.
Managers are often trapped by their own problem statements. Shifting
the way a problem is framed requires seeing it from multiple perspectives.
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3. If we want to train industry-makers, we need longer applicable because there is no theory to close our minds to ambiguity.
to teach the cognitive skills required to for- that is ultimately justified.All theories should Although causation is not clearly estab-
mulate new problems to replace old ones. be regarded as subject to modification, lished as an explanatory device on logical
New problem-statements are often based on improvement or deletion; grounds, it is very well established as an
new ways of seeing, new disciplines and new •Mindsets are not determined by explanatory device on psychological grounds.
assumptions. experiences: the ‘cold, hard facts’ do not Causal explanations have an air of certainty
Unfortunately, business education is divid- ‘determine’ any particular theory (although they to them that probabilistic explanations and
ed up into specialties that are individually do shape and guide what we can sensibly and explanations based on mechanisms lack; and
monopolized by age-old disciplines: finance, truthfully say).We are ultimately free to choose, certainty, it turns out, is something we crave.
operations, economics, accounting, organiza- defend, or deport our cognitive commitments. A new way of thinking for the New Econ-
tional behavior, technology strategy and so We have set out to map cognitive and omy calls not only for new theories, but for
forth. When in ‘finance’ class, the would-be meta-cognitive strategies aimed at getting new ways of thinking about theories, and new
‘industry-makers’ solve finance problems; people ‘unhooked’ from their own ideas, such meanings as to what constitutes a theory. It
when in ‘operations’ class, they solve ‘opera- that they may perceive old problems in new calls for new strategies of playing with your
tions’ problems. But real-world problems often ways, along with new problems that open up own mind, such as:
require solving engineering problems in opera- whenever we become slightly more respon- •thinking conditionally, in terms of
tions scenarios, programming problems in sive to the anomalies that surround us.These what various objects could be, rather than in
hardware scenarios, and psychological prob- strategies are not in any sense ‘rules’, but terms of what they are, of what could rather
lems in economic scenarios. rather guides to sequences of cognitive choic- than what will happen.Thinking conditionally
What are the cognitive and meta-cognitive es – choices among our beliefs, models and gives us the freedom to flex the muscles of
skills (ie: the ways in which we think our theories. They are not meant to contain or perception. Experiments carried out by one
thoughts and believe our beliefs) required to constrain cognition, but rather to guide and of us show that presenting information in a
take control of the New Economy? We will ven- shape inquiry. conditional fashion leads to better perfor-
ture to build a case for a new way of thinking mance on cognitive tasks that require the use
about thinking and learning, based on our study Thinking about Thinking of that information in new ways;
of the ways in which people believe their beliefs. The new informational and institutional land- •thinking in terms of particulars,
Cognitive commitment to an idea or a the- scape calls for new ways of thinking – and of rather than solely in terms of universal rules
ory, we will argue, is not a friend, but an dealing with complexity, uncertainty and and laws, lets us perceive the novel aspect of a
enemy that lures us into the lukewarm waters change. Many of the models and theories that situation and produce the adaptive behavior that
of various disciplines that strive to keep us are currently being taught in universities rely may be required to successfully deal with it;
there. Getting out of a cognitive commit- on a dated metaphysical model of the world: •thinking in terms of intentions
ment, however, is just as difficult as getting the universe as a giant piece of machinery, rather than causes, can unfreeze our cog-
out of a bad relationship. New strategies are whose components are linked by the iron nitive commitment to the ‘one true picture’
required to help us win the ensuing mental chains of causation. This ‘world view’ has of the world that we may be stuck with.Think-
battles, and new thinking is required to craft become ensconced into the ways in which we ing in terms of intentions is at the core of the
these strategies. inquire into the working of people, groups great discoveries in cognitive and social psy-
Our collective work on individual cognition and institutions: we expect law-like regulari- chology, which have made us aware of the rela-
and learning and the processes by which beliefs ties to show up everywhere, and discover tionship between the way we want to see the
get selected, validated or rejected reveals that: them even in sequences of events that have world and the way in which we currently see it;
•Mindsets are sticky: they are much been designed to be ‘random’ so as to fool us, •thinking spirally, in terms of
more easily prevented than cured once they as experiments on gamblers indicate. As sequences of events that amplify each other,
have been ‘learned’; Israeli psychologist Arie Kruglanski has rather than linearly, in terms of causes and
•Mindsets are alive: they are active, not shown, experiments on people’s responses to effects, lets us break out of the narrow corner
objects.They stick around because we active- randomness and uncertainty demonstrate that of the immediate experience;
ly defend them against refutation that discon- we ‘find’ patterns everywhere, as if motivated •thinking holistically, in terms of the
firms the theories on which they rest. characteristics of a system that cannot be ana-
This, at least, is what studies of individual lyzed in terms of components and sub-com-
and group psychology seem to show. Psycholo- ponents of that system, can make the escape
gists often stop here. On the other hand, episte- from narrow analytical corners easy and
“ To the answer embedded in every
mology (the study of knowledge itself) and the rewarding;
question, answer with a question
history of science suggest that, from a different answer.”
•thinking consequentially, not only
•Mindsets are provisional: they can be — Gilles Deleuze, in terms of choices and the consequences of
changed, modified, or discarded when no French Philosopher those choices, but also in terms of the conse-
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4. quences of choosing to think in a particular nitely not as a case that has been tailored for
way. This allows us to examine the effects of the theory it is aiming to illustrate.
“We see things not as
our beliefs on our own ability to act decisive-
they are, but as we are.”
ly and successfully; Invoking Scripts
— The Talmud
•thinking in parallel, carrying forward What principles and immovable concepts are
multiple possible models of the world rather to individual minds, scripts are to interper-
than discarding all but the ‘one true model’ – sonal relations, as the work of American psy-
lets us form multiple perspectives of the same chologist Bob Abelson has shown.The teacher
phenomenon; teaches. In his own mind, he has cognitive
•thinking like a detective, by treating we may not be directly conscious of it. jurisdiction over the subject matter. His
all theories, models and prescriptions as Becoming conscious of the structures of inter- ‘script’ calls for him to be correct all of the
hypotheses to be tested through our actions active reasoning that we use can make us time, for the student to be ‘incapable of giving
rather than conclusory statements of ‘truth’ to more successful players of the social games, the right answer’ some or most of the time.
be followed unquestioningly; sub-games and super-games that often charac- In the teacher’s script, the student is in the
•thinking recursively, not only about terize organizational life. classroom to learn, to be evaluated, and to fail
the relation between ‘data’ and ‘theory’ or at least some of the time. Otherwise, there
between ‘model’ and ‘object’, but also about Thinking Dialectically would not be much that the teacher could
the ways in which we think about the links Dialectical thinking plays various ideas and teach the student. Forced grading curves rein-
between theory and data, or model and object. theories off each other without seeking to force the teacher script.They legislate, ex ante
establish any one of them with absolute cer- that most students must get a grade that is
Thinking Interactively tainty.While goal-oriented thinking seeks cer- less than the ‘top’ grade in the class.
We reason about each other all of the time, tainty and often shuns questioning, dialectical Having figured out the teacher’s ‘script’,
but very rarely reason with each other. We thinking puts forth ideas with an eye to chal- the student proceeds to ‘play’ it by producing
think interpersonally, but rarely think interac- lenging or refuting them using other ideas or behavior targeted at reinforcing the script in
tively.We often make attributions and gener- theories. When choices must be made order to achieve optimum results. The stu-
alize from very few instances to construct between alternative points of view, it is with dent’s script calls for behavior that is designed
entire schemas into which our experiences an understanding that these choices are never to produce not necessarily the greatest amount
neatly fit. But, we do not stop to ask:‘what if absolutely justified. of knowledge, but the most favorable impres-
everyone else is also using the same schemas?’ While it may seem that such playful think- sion on the teacher. These two goals are not
Social psychologists have pointed out for a ing can only be suitably engaged in by poets always (if ever) identical. The student realizes
long time that interpersonal reasoning is and philosophers, it is nevertheless highly use- that the ‘teacher must teach’. She also realizes
based on a set of metaphors and schemas that ful as a practical tool for decision-makers in that the quickest way to a teacher’s heart (and
help us organize our experiences and take complex environments, where ‘certainty’ is to good grades) is to ‘play the game’ of repeat-
swift action.We are quick to categorize others costly, as the financier and philanthropist ing back to the teacher what the latter has pre-
at work as ‘gamesmen’,‘schmoozers’,‘politi- George Soros has recently argued. sented as ‘knowledge’ to the classroom.
cal animals’, ‘leaders’, ‘followers’ and ‘syco- Significant barriers must be overcome in The student counts on the fact that the
phants’.That means, however, that others may order to bring dialectical thinking into the teacher is too self-deceived to see through the
see us as gamesmen or schmoozers as well. business education process. Quite often in the student’s strategy of ‘appeasement’. With
Far less attention, has been paid to the classroom of the professional school, ‘the every action that the student takes, she rein-
ways in which people think about what other right answer’ consists of merely articulating forces the teacher’s ‘teachers must teach’
people think, about what other people think how a case study fits under a general principle script.With every reward and punishment that
they think, and so forth. Yet, this form of (a model or a theory). ‘Cracking the case’ the teacher metes out to students, he rein-
interpersonal mindfulness is critical to our means, quite often ‘applying the rules’ that forces the ‘teacher is stupid enough to be flat-
being able to successfully engage in even the appear on page ‘xyz’ of a textbook.This peda- tered’ script that the student has.The result is
most trivial coordination tasks, such as keep- gogical device efficiently solves the immediate a mutually reinforcing spiral of actions that
ing an appointment for a meeting (we think problems of the teacher and the taught, such jointly perpetuate the two scripts.
that the other thinks we will make it), telling a as producing a course that is easy to grade and Dialectical thinking helps break us out of
plausible falsehood (we think the other thinks whose successful completion depends on at these self-defeating psychological dynamics.
that we are telling the truth, and that they least showing up. But it is unlikely that it builds It focuses on empirical facts as challenges to
think we think they think we are telling the the skills necessary to formulate or re-formu- theories and on theories as challenges to
truth, otherwise we would give ourselves late the problems that will be encountered in known interpretations of empirical observa-
away by a nervous twitch). Most social rea- business life. A manager’s predicament does tions. ‘Cognitive jurisdiction’ breaks down,
soning, in fact, is interactive – even though not come packaged as a case study, and defi- and the ‘one continued on page 39
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