Johannes benigni's presentation slides from the 2010 World National Oil Companies Congress that took place in June in London.

1. 28 June 2010
Global Product Market Trends
The Outlook for NOCs
Johannes BenigniJohannes Benigni
JBC Energy GmbHJBC Energy GmbH
June 24, 2010June 24, 2010
ResearchResearch -- Energy StudiesEnergy Studies -- ConsultingConsulting -- TrainingTraining
World National Oil Companies
Congress

2. 28 June 2010 Slide 2
Disclaimer
All statements other than statements of historical fact are, or may be deemed to be, forward-looking
statements. Forward-looking statements (including those depicted in graphical form) are statements of
future expectations that are based on JBC Energy’s current expectations and assumptions and involve
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similar terms and phrases. All forward-looking statements contained in this speech/presentation are
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Energy is not responsible for the accuracy of data collected from external sources and will not be held liable
for any errors or omissions in facts or analysis contained in this presentation.

3. 28 June 2010 Slide 3
Price Formation
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
100.00
Jun 09 Aug 09 Oct 09 Dec 09 Feb 10 Apr 10 Jun 10
-10.00
-7.50
-5.00
-2.50
0.00
2.50
5.00
Nymex WTI Vs ICE Brent FL - right scale
ICE Brent FL
Nymex WTI FL
Nymex WTI and ICE Brent (FL) [$/bbl]
Source: CME Group, ICE

4. 28 June 2010 Slide 4
Price Formation
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
Oct-03 Jul-04 Apr-05 Jan-06 Oct-06 Jul-07 Apr-08 Jan-09 Oct-09 Jul-10
Light/Heavy to US
Light/Heavy to Asia
Light/Heavy to Europe (NWE)
Q1 2010 avg:
$78.75/bbl
Arab Light/Arab Heavy Differentials By Region [$/bbl]
Source: Saudi Aramco
Outright price of WTI
Cushing in Oct 2003:
$29.65/bbl

5. 28 June 2010 Slide 5
Crude Prices & Markets
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
Floating
Storage
2009
[mbbls]
end-Jan end-Feb end-Mar end-Apr end-May end-June end-July end-Aug end-Sept end-OctSource: JBC Energy estimate based on
info from SSY, Platts, Charles R. Weber,
Argus, WSJ, Gibson, Poten, Thomson
Reuters
Estimated Oil in Floating Storage as of End-May 2010
USGC
WAF
EUROPE
18-22 million
barrels crude
5-8 million
barrels crude
7-10 million
barrels crude
22 - 25 million barrels of
middle distillates
Asia/Pacific
PG
48-52 million
barrels crude
2-4 million
barrels crude
9 - 11 million barrels of
middle distillates
2 - 4 million barrels of
middle distillates
Crude
end-Apr '09 100-105
end-May'09 80-90
end-Jun '09 65-70
end-Jul '09 55
end-Aug '09 40-50
end-Sep '09 34-46
end-Oct '09 40-45
end-Nov '09 34-40
end-Dec '09 40-45
end-Jan '10 30-38
end-Feb '10 25-30
end-Mar '10 35-45
end-Apr '10 50-70
end-May '10 80-96
90-95
43-55
55-65
33-40
32-39
95-100
75-85
Floating Storage [mbbls]
Gas Oil/ Jet-Kero
20-25
30-35
50-55
55-60
45-55
60-70
85-95

6. 28 June 2010 Slide 6
Demand – Short-Term Picture
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
Germany Italy France UK Spain US Mexico Brazil ArgentinaSouth
Korea
Japan China India Taiwan Russia Iran Saudi
Arabia
2008 Gasoline Demand over Q1 2007 2009 Gasoline Demand over Q1 2007
2010 Gasoline Demand over Q1 2007 2008 Gas Oil/Diesel Demand over Q1 2007
2009 Gas Oil/Diesel Demand over Q1 2007 2010 Gas Oil/Diesel Demand over Q1 2007
2008/2009/2010 Q1 Gasoline and Gas Oil/Diesel Demand Change on Q1 2007 ['000 b/d]
Source: Official Data, JODI

7. 28 June 2010 Slide 7
Demand – Short-Term Picture
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
Jan 07 Apr 07 Jul 07 Oct 07 Jan 08 Apr 08 Jul 08 Oct 08 Jan 09 Apr 09 Jul 09 Oct 09 Jan 10 Apr 10
Gas Oil
Gasoline
Naphtha
Chinese Apparent Oil Product Demand ['000 b/d]
Source: Official Government Data, Thomson Reuters

8. 28 June 2010 Slide 8
China Products
0.55
0.575
0.6
0.625
0.65
0.675
Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10
0.2
0.225
0.25
0.275
0.3
0.325
Gasoline+diesel output in % of total output
Naphtha+LPG+Jet/kero output in % of total output - right
Chinese Product Yields [%]
Sources: Official Government Data, JBC Energy calculations

9. 28 June 2010 Slide 9
Demand – Long-Term Outlook
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
North
America
OECD
Europe
OECD AsiaNon-OECD
Europe
FSU EastAfricaCentral &
South
America
Middle EastNon-OECD
Asia
LPG Naphtha Gasoline
Jet/Kero Gas Oil/Diesel Fuel Oil
Other Products
Regional Oil Demand Growth by Products 2009-2015 [mbpd]

10. 28 June 2010 Slide 10
Demand – Road Transportation Fuels
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
2009 2020
Components of US Gasoline Demand 2009-2020 [mbpd]
2009
Refinery Based
Gasoline
Demand
8.3 million b/d
Additional
Demand for
Bioethanol
- 219,000 b/d*
*: energy
adjusted
Change in
Passenger
Kilometers and
Travel Mode
+ 988,000 b/d
Change in the
fleet structure
(gasoline vs.
diesel)
- 304,000 b/d
Hybrids, LPG,
CNG, Full
Electric
- 404,000 b/d
Efficiency Gain
- 2.48 mbpd
2020
Refinery Based
Gasoline
Demand
5.88 million b/d

11. 28 June 2010 Slide 11
Demand – Road Transportation Fuels
2.50
2.75
3.00
3.25
3.50
3.75
4.00
2009 2020
Components of EU-27 Transportation Diesel Demand 2009-2020 [mbpd]
2008
Refinery
Based
Diesel
Demand
3.7 mbpd
Additional
Demand for
Biodiesel
- 154,000
b/d*
*: energy
adjusted
Change in
Passenger
Kilometers
and Travel
Mode
+ 68,000 b/d
Change in
Tonne
Kilometers
and Freight
Mode
+ 259,000 b/d
Hybrids,
LPG, CNG,
Full Electric
- 34,000 b/d
Efficiency
Gain in
Goods
Vehicles
and Busses
- 208,000 b/d
Change in
the fleet
structure
(gasoline
vs. diesel)
-47,000 b/d
Efficiency
Gain in
Passenger
Cars
- 192,000 b/d
2020
Refinery
Based
Diesel
Demand
3.4 mbpd

12. 28 June 2010 Slide 12
Demand – Road Transportation Fuels
1.2
1.5
1.8
2.1
2.4
2.7
3.0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
JBC Energy SuDeP - base case
Moderate Scenario
High Impact Scenario
China Gasoline Demand - Electrification/Hybridisation Scenarios [mbpd]
By 2020, gasoline demand in the "high impact"
scenario is 380,000 b/d lower than in the base
case.
Due to scrapped gasoline cars being replaced by
EVs, demand growth continuous to flatten.
JBC Energy estimates
"Passenger car density" only relates to passenger vehicles
and does not take account of larger vans or LCVs
Scenario Fleet Size Fleet Share of EV Fleet Share of HEV Fleet Share of PHEV
Base Case 85 million (60/1000 inh.) 6.0% 1.5% 1.5%
Moderate Scenario 85 million (60/1000 inh.) 10.0% 1.25% 3.75%
High Impact Scenario 85 million (60/1000 inh.) 25.0% 7.5% 7.5%
Scenario Assumptions for 2020
General Assumption: Average fuel consumption will decline from 8.5 l/100 km to 5.5l/100 km by 2020

13. 28 June 2010 Slide 13
6,683
5,404
4,097
282
444
472 1,220
1,886
2,858
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
Scenario Actual Difference - right scale
Total Oil Demand - China ['000 b/d]
Oil demand is assumed to be a function of
GDP, (retail) prices, and pre-period
demand
Scenario Demand based on constant oil
price of $24.46 / bbl
LPG Naphtha Gasoline Jet/Kero Gas Oil Fuel Oil
Price -0.112 -0.072 -0.056 -0.060 -0.171 -0.219
Income 0.101 0.210 0.414 0.741 0.409 0.144
Demand (t-1) 0.950 0.802 0.586 0.000 0.692 0.950
(Retail) Price and Income Elasticities of Oil Demand used to calibrate Model -
China
Scenario

14. 28 June 2010 Slide 14
Demand – Fuel Oil
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
Middle East C & S America Non-OECD
Asia
FSU East Africa North
America
Europe OECD Asia
Gas Oil
Fuel Oil
Crude Oil
Regional Change in Oil Consumption for Power Generation 2009-2015 [´000 b/d]

15. 28 June 2010 Slide 15
Long-Term Bunker Fuel Outlook
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Global
ECA
ECA And Global Sulphur Limits [%]
Source: IMO

16. 28 June 2010 Slide 16
Long-Term Bunker Fuel Outlook
World Shipping Routes

17. 28 June 2010 Slide 17
Long-Term Bunker Fuel Outlook
100
75
60
90
50
1480
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600
Global Impact of 0.5% (2025
est)
Mediterranean (2020 est)
Japan & Korea (2018 est)
North Sea (2016 est)
US & Canada (2012)
Baltic Sea & English Channel
(2006/07)
Impact of Regulation on Bunker Fuel Demand from 2015 onwards ['000 b/d, %]
XX
0.4%
0.4%
2%
XX%
5%
32%
9%
Bunker Fuel Oil that has to be
replaced by Gas Oil in 2015 or
year or later year of new
legislation['000 b/d]
Share of ships with scrubbers
installed in 2015 or year or
later year of new legislation [%]

18. 28 June 2010 Slide 18
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Gas Oil Demand Without Adjustment
Shift from FO to GO
Fuel Oil Demand Before Adjustment
Scrubber Implementation Rate
Regulatory Change and Bunker Fuel Demand & Scrubber Adoption rate [mbpd / %]
Long-Term Bunker Fuel Outlook

19. 28 June 2010 Slide 19
Refining Capacity Outlook
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
OECD Oil Products Demand
Non-OECD Products Demand
OECD Refinery Capacity (forecast disregards likely shutdowns)
Non-OECD Refinery Capacity
Oil Market's Shift from OECD to non-OECD - Demand & Refining Capacity [mbpd]

20. 28 June 2010 Slide 20
Refining
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
US EU15 + Norway Japan South Korea India China Russia
Q1-2008 Q1-2009 Q1-2010
Q1 2008-2009-2010 Refinery Throughput in Selected Countries [million bpd]
Source: National Statistics
US Q1 2010 vs. Q1 2008: -750 kbd
EU Q1 2010 vs. Q1 2008: -1.33 mbd
China Q1 2010 vs. Q1 2008: +1.35 mbd
India Q1 2010 vs. Q1 2008: +630 kbd

21. 28 June 2010 Slide 21
Refining
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Avg 05-09 2010
2006 2007
2008 2009
EU-15 & Norway Refinery Utilisation [%]
Source: Euroilstock

22. 28 June 2010 Slide 22
Refining
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
IOC
NOC
World Refining Capacity By Ownership, projects >50,000 b/d ['000 b/d]
78% of additional crude distillation capacity
expected to come onstream is owned by NOCs.

23. 28 June 2010 Slide 23
Refining
Selected Refining Capacity Increases in Middle East & Asia ['000 b/d]
Syria
Expected: 0
Known: 380
China
Expected: 4.216
Known: 9.351
Egypt
Expected: 0
Known: 350
India
Expected: 1.071
Known: 3.931
Iran
Expected: 505
Known: 1.215
Irak
Expected: 230
Known: 1.310
Kuwait
Expected: 64
Known: 14
Lebanon
Expected: 0
Known: 100
Libya
Expected: 220
Known: 960
Oman
Expected: 0
Known: 300
Pakistan
Expected: 250
Known: 573
Qatar
Expected: 0
Known: 250
Saudi Arabia
Expected: 1.200
Known: 1.750
UAE
Expected: 417
Known: 417
Yemen
Expected: 320
Known: 1.410
JBC Energy Expectation: 8.5 million b/d
Known projects: 22 million b/d

24. 28 June 2010 Slide 24
FSU East Special
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2008 2020 2008 2020 2008 2020 2008 2020 2008 2020 2008 2020
Russia Europe Middle East US OECD Asia World
Desulphuriaton
conversion
Regional Comparison of Downstream Complexity [%]

25. 28 June 2010 Slide 25
Refining Capacity Outlook
Refinery Shutdown Potential & Expected CDU Additions By 2020 ['000 b/d]
Source: JBC Energy estimates
Shutdown potential
in '000 b/d
Resulting utilisation
in 2020
-4500 84.2%
-400 87.0%
-3400 81.7%
-200 86.6%
-200 79.9%
-1800 87.1%
Asia
-300 80.7%846
731
723
375
2651
630
6310
Gross additions
-3654
331
-2677
175
2451
330
4510
Net change
Africa
Middle East
Europe
North America
FSU East
Latin America

26. 28 June 2010 Slide 26
Product Balances, Flows & Margins
Major Non-OECD Asian Gas Oil/Diesel Flows (2008-2013-2018) ['000 b/d]
149 147 230
132 196 104
Only trade flows
higher than 50,000 b/d
are displayed.
Source: JBC Energy estimates
2008
2013
2018
GasOil
Middle East
North America
C&S America
Europe
254 210 203
FSU East
390
290
260
100
120
128
111
161
230
60
64
106 OECD
Asia
OECD
Asia
Non-OECD
Asia
Africa

27. 28 June 2010 Slide 27
Thank You!
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Research – Energy Studies – Consulting – Training