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Energy Mid Cap Summer Update   			  XJ Teo
Market Performance
M&A Activity Key drivers:  shale  midstream assets foreign investors * Exploration and production has led activity, with 26 deals in the second quarter.  * Eight of the top 10 deals by value were associated with shale plays. * Chinese state-owned oil companies in the market for oil and natural gas acquisitions.
Trends and opportunities US oil boom as fracking used for oil WTI, Brent doing funny stuff O&G- The Low Hanging Fruit to Create Jobs Profitable US refineries to feel pressure
Energy Sector Outlook Oil and gas upstream, midstream to outperform on M&A, earnings growth  Risks: environmentalists Refiners to underperform on weak demand, narrowing WTI-Brent spread.

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Mc energy 091211_final - copy

  • 1. Energy Mid Cap Summer Update XJ Teo
  • 3. M&A Activity Key drivers: shale midstream assets foreign investors * Exploration and production has led activity, with 26 deals in the second quarter. * Eight of the top 10 deals by value were associated with shale plays. * Chinese state-owned oil companies in the market for oil and natural gas acquisitions.
  • 4. Trends and opportunities US oil boom as fracking used for oil WTI, Brent doing funny stuff O&G- The Low Hanging Fruit to Create Jobs Profitable US refineries to feel pressure
  • 5. Energy Sector Outlook Oil and gas upstream, midstream to outperform on M&A, earnings growth Risks: environmentalists Refiners to underperform on weak demand, narrowing WTI-Brent spread.

Editor's Notes

  1. 1. BHP Billtion acquires Petrohawk for $12.1B> Premium paid for Natural Gas Liquids (NGL) which is trading at roughly 60% of oil.2. Sunoco to sell loss-making refinery business> Company worth 53% more in pieces, killed by WTI-Brent spread.3. Exxon Mobil and Rosneft> The last frontier: investment needed to develop all the fields involved and associated infrastructure may reach $500 billion.4. Cnooc $1.3B investment in shale oil projects with Chesapeake energy, $2.1B acquisition of Opti Canada> Shale gas and oil sands: "unconventional resources" as growth drivers.
  2. * US oil boom as fracking used for oil> Texas' Permian Basin, newer fields like North Dakota's Bakken shale and the Utica shale in Ohio as well as the recent Gulf discoveries opens up a new era spurred by hydrofracking and ultradeep drilling.* WTI, Brent doing funny stuff> WTI futures curve in contango while Brent futures curve in backwardation, pointing to lower spread after recent reversal in inventory trends.* The Low Hanging Fruit to Create Jobs> 1 million potential American jobs in the Oil and Gas industry just needing an expansion of offshore drilling in the Gulf of Mexico; opening up drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR); allowing companies to tap reserves in some sections of the Rocky Mountains; and embracing the vast natural gas deposits in the Marcellus Shale.* Profitable US refineries to feel pressure from narrowing WTI-Brent spread> Weak demand and unsustainable spread as economy slows and Brent "shortage" turns around.