This document discusses enhancing capacity for preventing and resolving future climate and natural resource conflicts in the Zambezi Basin. It analyzes the vulnerabilities and adaptive capacities of two areas - Bulawayo/Matabeleland North Province in Zimbabwe and Chinde District in Mozambique. Both regions have economies dependent on climate-sensitive factors and face challenges like water scarcity, food insecurity, and flooding. Weak governance and socioeconomic conditions limit their ability to adapt. The document recommends strengthening local governance of natural resources through organizations like Bulawayo Agenda, which works to increase civic participation, and community monitoring of resources.

1. TOWARDS ENHANCED CAPACITY FOR
PREVENTION AND RESOLUTION OF
FUTURE CLIMATE AND NATURAL
RESOURCE-RELATED CONFLICTS IN
THE ZAMBEZI BASIN
“Sustainable Prosperity: New Challenges for Natural Resource Governance
Theory in Africa”
Roundtable Discussion: 27 November 2012
Jan Smuts House, Johannesburg
TIGERE CHAGUTAH

2. Background
 Globally, climate change currently sits on top of the international
policy agenda
 Increasingly, security implications of climate change are attracting
increased attention.
 In July 2011 UN SC held first open debate and issued a
statement expressing its concern about adverse effects of
climate change aggravating existing threats to international
peace and security
 Climate change/conflict relationship is complex & yet to be
sufficiently understood; General thesis is cc will act as a threat
multiplier
 Responses still being studied
 What is clear: Projected impacts of long-term changes in climate,
some of which have already occurred, are likely to increase a
range of risks to human security, including the risk of many forms

3. Background cont.
 Scoping study, Climate Change and the Risk of
Violent Conflicts in Southern Africa released June
2011 (Global Crisis Solutions, Uppsala University
and the Swedish Defence Research Agency)
 Draws a correlation between socio-economic profile,
existing governance context and weakened adaptive
capacities to predict risk to conflict among
communities
 It is unlikely that the socioeconomic impact of climate
change/variability will cause conflict on its own.
 Climate change/variability is one among many
causes of conflict and its role is set to become more
prominent in future conflicts.
 Bulawayo/ Matabeleland North Province (Zimbabwe)
and Chinde District (Zambezi Delta, Mozambique)
identified as areas most prone to risk of violent
conflict (collective violence, popular unrest) induced

4. Socio-Economic + political
variables
Bulawayo/ Matabeleland North
BIOPHYSICAL
 Recorded average rise in daily min. temp of 2.6 deg C over last
century
 Decline in rainfall approx. 5% since 1990
 Vulnerable to recurrent droughts, rainfall is unreliable, run-off is poor,
rivers are perennially dry.
SOCIO-ECONOMIC
 Second largest city, after Harare,. Pop. 1,000,000
 Highest mean household size (5.23) and highest mean dependency
ratio (1.40) in the urban centres of Zimbabwe
 60% of population live below the poverty datum line; highest incidence
of poverty among urban households in urban centres
 Less than 45% per cent of economically active people informally
employed
 Severe economic downturn since 2000
POLITICAL/ CULTURAL
 Multi-ethnic, Ndebele ethic group are the majority

5. Socio-Economic + political variables
cont.
Chinde District
BIOPHYSICAL
Frequent rains; average monthly rainfall of 65.3mm and a

relative humidity of 73.4%
Frequent torrential rains from cyclones that can occur in any

month from December to March, causing widespread local
flooding
Classified by UNFCCC as one of most vulnerable regions in

Moz, itself ranked 3rd among countries most exposed to
multiple weather-related risks
SOCIO-ECONOMIC
Total population of 119,898 (females: 52.4% and males:

47.6%)
53.8% under the age of 18
Population density highest along the coast .
Fishing in Zambezi River, agriculture and small , informal

trade are the main economic activities.
POLITICAL

6. Vulnerability to CC
 Both regions economies and political/social organisation dependent on factors that
are highly sensitive to climate impacts
Area Climate impacts Drivers
compounding
vulnerability
Water scarcity, water • Rise in average temperatures coupled with a decline in average
stress rainfall
• Decline in reservoir capacity
• Rising population
• Politically enforced neglect of water resources development
Bulawayo/
Mat North Food insecurity • General aridity of region
• Decline in average rainfall
• Centralised marketing and pricing of cereals leads to artificial
shortages
• Politically enforced neglect of development/food security
programmes
Flooding • Sea level rise
• Uncoordinated up-stream flow management
• Increased cyclonic activity
Forced and • Loss of living and working space to sea level rise
Chinde
voluntary migration • Costal erosion
Decreased • Salt water intrusion/salinisation of agricultural land and water

7. Adaptive Capacity
 Adaptive capacity refers to the ability of a system to adjust to climate change, to moderate
potential damage, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences.
 Factors mediating adaptive capacity isolated for investigation in this study: human skills set,
education and literacy, information availability; rules and regulations; available
infrastructure and technology; trade patterns and economic performance; mobility; and
quality of political governance.Bulawayo
Factor Chinde
Access to- • ESAP and international economic • Widespread poverty, under-
and isolation led to / exacerbated poverty development and limited
distribution • Majority not in formal employment and employment opportunities
of resources dependent on illegal, semi-legal and • Communities survive mostly on
and income legal activities small-scale income fishing, agriculture and petty
generating activities trading with limited
• Operation Murambatsvina destroyed opportunities for diversified
many sources of livelihoods income sources
• Majority of youth unemployed; older • Widespread absence of
residents dependent on pensions or household assets and
welfare grants whose purchasing livestock
power has been eroded by inflation • Absence of small credit finance
• Remittances dwindling and no longer for farmers
provide widespread or reliable support

8. Adaptive Capacity cont.
Factor Bulawayo Chinde
Rules and • Centralised marketing and pricing policies • Tax credit policy for investors
regulations impacting on food security expected to enhance new
• New policy guidelines and municipal by-laws investment
set to enable urban and peri-urban agriculture
Availability of • Sturdy housing protects against exposure to • Lack of robust housing exposes
infrastructure and climate hazards communities to multiple weather-
technological • Provision of boreholes to boost urban related hazards
options agriculture and water availability • bad transport infrastructure
• Frequent electric cuts and shortage of militates against effective disaster
alternative energy sources response and communication
• Limited access to health and basic
services, water and sanitation
• Limited sources to energy, primarily
firewood
Human capital: • Mass exodus of skilled and economically • Opportunities for tertiary education
Skills, education, active population due to economic and and vocational training are limited
communication and political downturn • Communication is difficult as most
information • City maintains a fairly adequate institutional parts are unreachable during the
availability base for the development of much needed flood season
capacity and trade training • telecommunications are erratic;
• City served by national broadcaster, satellite most residents do not have access
TV and state and independent newspapers to television, radio, telephone and
other ICTs

9. Adaptive Capacity cont.
Factor Bulawayo Chinde
Economy and • Extensive rail infrastructure that once provided a • Trade is mainly local and small
trade patterns vibrant transport hub between Botswana, South scale
Africa and Zambia, promoting the city’s development • Main cash crop is sugar but
as a thriving industrial centre now lies in a state of sugar processing plant was
disrepair destroyed during the civil war
• city lacks good air links to other countries and other • Poor transport infrastructure
centres in Zimbabwe makes the zone relatively
• Massive disinvestment in past decade isolated, and results in limited
• City is a marketing and distribution centre for the market interaction with even
primary produce originating in the western regions of neighboring areas
the country and provides trade links with South Africa
for small scale and larger cross-border trade
Mobility • Migratory labour offers source of income • Most migration following
• Diasporas (particularly in SA) traditionally remit sudden onset climate-related
finances and other resources disasters tends to be short-
• Diasporas experience xenophobic abuse and impacts distance and temporary in
such as loss of income are felt locally nature

10. Political Governance/CC
nexus
 When climate change impacts the economy negatively
politics can act as a catalyst that transforms latent tensions
and competition over dwindling resources and opportunities
into full blown conflict thus forestalling any efforts at
adaptation. Similarly, climate-induced disasters put stress
upon society and that stress, particularly in countries with
fewer resources for coping, can result in civil unrest and
violence.
 Where there exists weak political, economic and social
institutions, the resilience of the vulnerable worsens; and
 Existence of polarised social identities accentuates
differences leading to further deterioration of the situation.
Conversely, where the quality of political governance is high
and there are measures to foster cooperation in natural
resource management and equitable distribution of resources
society’s ability to adapt to the impacts of climate change and
variability is enhanced.

11. Political Governance/CC nexus: Elites
 Quality of governance is dependant on the role
played by elites, institutions and social identities
 National elites, often through local elites, are leading
sponsors of conflict: ZANU PF; MDC T/N;
FRELIMO; RENAMO
 Patronage networks determine destination of
dwindling resources
 Elites exploit resource related anxiety to mobilise
aggrieved communities against rival elites and other
communities
 Malign elites use access to food and water as a
political tool thus fuelling conflict

12. Political Governance/CC nexus:
Institutions
 Low/weak institutional capacity typical in both study
areas
 Institutions weakened by external pressures
(Economic SAPs, withdrawal of foreign aid, price
shocks, falling commodity prices) and internal
dynamics (political transitions and economic
mismanagement)
 State institutions’ ability to provide basic services,
access to food and water, and poverty alleviation
programmes is severely curtailed.
 Additional stress resulting from climate change leads
to aggrieved communities.
 Little confidence in state institutions

13. Political Governance/CC nexus:
Soc Identities
 Existing feelings of injustice relating to resource
development, distribution and management heavily tied
to ethnic/regional identities
 Matabeleland Zambezi Water Project
 Existing sense of marginalisation will be accentuated by
climate change-induced resource stress
 Convergence of cultural, economic and political
differences heighten sense of marginalisation and could
lead to violent conflict

14. Primary intervention: Strengthen local
level capacity for governance of nat.
resources
Context: Bio-physical and socio-economic vulnerability + structural and
governance-related barriers to increased adaptive capacity...
Stakeholder overview:
Bulawayo Chinde
UN and other Intergovernmental UN Clusters
organisations Government Agencies
INGOs & NGOs INGOs
CBOs & FBOs Local NGOs
UN Clusters
NGO Networks and Social
Development Dialogue Fora
Government Depts
Media

15. Stakeholders
Bulawayo
 Over 25 organisations working (some not primarily) on community-oriented
natural-resource governance.
 Due to recent history most organised formations/associations focuisng on
governance deal with political and human-rights issues (Byo Agenda, Radio
Dialogue, Zim HR Forum, Centre for Peace Initiatives in Africa)
 Residents and water user (rate payers) associations not as active as in the
past
 Re-capacitate and diversify away from political agenda
Chinde
 Approx 20 organisations/associations identified; dominated by I/NGOs and
government
 Very little community organisation around natural resource governance
 Catalyse local level action and mobilisation; Fisher associations, Radio
Chinde

16. Bulawayo Agenda
 Target: Politically and developmentally marginalised
communities in rural and peri-urban areas.
 Aim: opening up, expansion and increasing accessibility of
space for civic participation in public and political spaces
 Methodology: public debates, community conversations,
leadership trainings and focus group meetings
 Community Committees - In12 (twelve) areas including in
and around Bulawayo, made up of ten members each(5
female, 5 male) elected by the local communities comprising
individual representatives drawn from civic groups, CBOs,
FBOs, Schools Development Associations, Residents
Associations, Burial Societies.
 Committees sit on monthly basis to plan monthly activities,
providing an environmental scan and analysis for
programmatic response + evaluation of carried out activities.

17. Bulawayo Agenda cont.
Community Resources Monitoring
Training
June 2012, Nkayi
 Aim: to develop the capacity of
community leaders and members to
monitor their local resources and hold
local decision makers accountable for
the development of the community.
 Twenty six (26) people including three
village heads, three councilors, five
residents’ association representatives,
activists, a School Development
Association chairperson and church
leaders trained
 Photo credit: BA

18. Bulawayo Agenda cont.
Inkundla (community leaders’ meeting)
at the Chief’s Nkalakatha, Nkayi
 Meeting organised by local CBO
 More than 300 participants
including 13 village heads,
women and school children
converged at Chief Nkalakatha’s
Inkundla
 Focus: Discuss how villagers
can be at the forefront of
spearheading developmental
issues as opposed to the top-
down approach as seen in the
community share schemes

19. THANK YOU.