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Presentation on
“Project formulation,evaluation
& monitoring”
By Avinash kumar
PROJECT
Characteristics of project
1. Objectives-Every project has aimed to achieve
certain objective.
Once the objective is achieved the project is
said to be completed .
2.Life cycle- stages of Life cycle are as follows:
a.conception
b.Design
c.Implementation
d.Commissoning
3. Definite time limit
4. Uniqueness
5. Change
6. Optimality
7. Control mechanism
Classification of projects
Project : formulation,evaluation and monitoring
Project : formulation,evaluation and monitoring
Phases in project cycle
1.Identification
2.Formulation
3.Appraisal
4.Implementation
5.Monitoring
6.Evaluation
project cycle
TIME VALUE OF MONEY
 It involves two types of cost-
1. Compounding cost:- Future value of present
sum is known as compounding.
 Formula: A=C(1+r)n
2. Discounting cost:- Present value of future
sum is called discounting.
 Formula:Present worth=R(A)/(1+r)n
Techniques of risk analysis
Following are the popular techniques :
1. Break even analysis
2. Sensitive analysis
3. Decision tree analysis
4. Monto carlo
5. Game theory
Break even analysis
Here we can find out break even point (BEP).
* BEP refers to the level of production at which
farmer neither incurred profit nor incurred
losses .
* Its also known as no-profit no loss situation.
Break even production = fixed cost
selling price per unit - variable cost per unit
Estimation of break Even point
Costs&returns(inRs)
Q
B
K
L
M
O
X
Y
S
Quantity
Where,
SM= Total fixed cost
SL= Total cost curve
OK= Total revenue curve
B= Break Even Point
OQ=Break-Even Quantity
Zoneof loss
Zoneof profit
SENSITIVE ANALYSIS
It’s a technique that measures change in
profitability level of the project caused by a
change in factors affecting the profitability
level.
Sensitive Analysis provides answer to the
folloeing questions –
what happens to the profitability level if……
1. Demand of the product fall down.
2. If selling price of the product fall down.
3. If the level of production is declined.
Evaluation techniques for
selection of profitable
project It is nothing but benefit cost analysis of
various aspects of a project.
 These techniques are divided into two
groups:
1.Non –discounted techniques
2.Discounted techniques
Non- discounted techniques
1. Payback period (PBP)
2. Average rate of return (ARR)
3. Urgency
Payback Period (PBP)
 It is the length of period required to get back
or recover orignal investment incurred on a
project through cash inflow or income.
 Payback period=Orignal investment/Annual
cash inflow.
 Thumb rule:Project which have minimum
PBP is selected.
Average rate of return
(ARR)
 This method is obtained by the formula :
AVERAGE INFLOW
AVERAGE OUTFLOW
 Thumb rule: A project having highest ARR
value is selected
Urgency
 Urgency : In this method no formula or
method is used. Only those projects are
selected which are urgently required.
Discounted techniques
It includes :
1. Net present worth (NPW)
2. Profitability index
3. Internal rate of return (IRR)
4. Discounted benefit cost ratio
Net Present Worth (NPW)
 This is the present worth of cash flow stream.
 It is referred as Net Present Value(NPV).
 NPW=P1/(1+i)t
+P2/(1+i)t
+....+Pn/(1+i)t
-C.
 P1=Net cash flow in first year,
 i=Discount rate,
 t=Time period,
 C=Initial cost of the investment.
 Thumb rule:A Project having +ve & max
value of NPW is selected.
Profitability Index (PI)
 It is ratio of net present values of cash flows
to the initial capital expenditure.
 PI = Present value of cash inflow/Present
value of cash outflow.
 Thumb rule: A Project with highest value of
Profitability index is selected
Internal Rate of Return (IRR)
 IRR is the discounted rate which makes NPV
equal to ZERO.
 IRR is calculated by TRIAL and ERROR
method.
 IRR=(Lower discount rate)+(Diff b/w the two
discont rates)*[(Present worth of the cash
flow at the lower discount rate)/(Absolute diff
b/w the present worths of the the cash flow at
two discount rates)]
Benefit Cost Ratio
 We compare the present worth of costs with
present worth of benefits.
 B-C Ratio =Present value of cash
inflow/Present value of cash outflow.
 Thumb rule: A project with highest B-C
Ratio is selected.
NETWORK BASED SCHEDULING
 It is a technique used for planning , scheduling
and controlling of a project.
 It is represented by graphical plan which consist
of activity and event.
 ACTIVITY: Any operation which consume
resources( man, material, time),has start point
and end point.
 Activity is represented by straight arrow with
circle at two points.

TYPES OF ACTIVITIES
1. PRECEEDING ACTIVITY: Activity which
occur immediately before the succeeding
activity.
2. SUCCEEDING ACTIVITY: Activity which
cannot be started until one or more activities
are completed.
3. DUMMY ACTIVITY: Activity which does not
consume resources. It is represented by
dotted arrow.
EVENT
 They are called nodes.
 It does not consume resources and time.
 Event is the beginning and end of an activity
and is represented by a circle at specific point
of time.
TYPES OF EVENTS
1. Merge event: It represent joint completion of
more than one activity.
2. Burst event: Event which represent the
beginning of more than one activity.
3. Merge and Burst event : It is for sometime
nerge and sometime burst.
ERRORS IN DRAWING A NETWORK
1. Looping: Drawing an endless loop in a
network .
2. Dangling: to disconnect an activity before
the completion of all the activities in a
network.
3. Redundancy: inserting the dummy activity in
a network diagram.
NETWOK SCHEDULING TECHNIQUE
 CPM: (Critical path method) represent a
logical sequence of an activity and events in a
project. The duration of all these paths are
added in the total duration of the path.
 The path that has a longer duration duration
is called critical path and activities drawn in
that path are critical activities.
FORWARD PATH COMPUTATION
In this method earliest start time of all the
events is is computed which begin from initial
event and move toward the final event.
BACKWARD PATH COMPUTATION
Here we calculate the latest time. This
method is start from last event and move
toward initial event.
Slack time: It is the diff b/w latest finish time
and earliest start time.
Activity float analysis
 A study of non- critical path with regard to free
time is necessary because it help in better
control of project implementation and better
allocation of resources.
 In critical path latest finish time and earliest start
time both are equal.
 The slack of the event is given by diff b/w the TL
and TE.
 The free time available for an activity is called
“float”.
TYPES OF FLOAT
1. Total float: It represents the max time by
whhich completion of an activity can be
delayed w/o affecting the project completion
time.
Total float=[Tl of head event-Te of tail event-
Duration of activity]
2. FREE
FLOAT
 Delay that can be permitted in an activity so
that succeeding activity in the path are not
affected.
3.INDEPENDENT FLOAT
 IT is the spare time available for an activity .
Project : formulation,evaluation and monitoring

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Project : formulation,evaluation and monitoring

  • 3. Characteristics of project 1. Objectives-Every project has aimed to achieve certain objective. Once the objective is achieved the project is said to be completed .
  • 4. 2.Life cycle- stages of Life cycle are as follows: a.conception b.Design c.Implementation d.Commissoning
  • 5. 3. Definite time limit 4. Uniqueness 5. Change 6. Optimality 7. Control mechanism
  • 9. Phases in project cycle 1.Identification 2.Formulation 3.Appraisal 4.Implementation 5.Monitoring 6.Evaluation
  • 11. TIME VALUE OF MONEY  It involves two types of cost- 1. Compounding cost:- Future value of present sum is known as compounding.  Formula: A=C(1+r)n 2. Discounting cost:- Present value of future sum is called discounting.  Formula:Present worth=R(A)/(1+r)n
  • 12. Techniques of risk analysis Following are the popular techniques : 1. Break even analysis 2. Sensitive analysis 3. Decision tree analysis 4. Monto carlo 5. Game theory
  • 13. Break even analysis Here we can find out break even point (BEP). * BEP refers to the level of production at which farmer neither incurred profit nor incurred losses . * Its also known as no-profit no loss situation. Break even production = fixed cost selling price per unit - variable cost per unit
  • 14. Estimation of break Even point Costs&returns(inRs) Q B K L M O X Y S Quantity Where, SM= Total fixed cost SL= Total cost curve OK= Total revenue curve B= Break Even Point OQ=Break-Even Quantity Zoneof loss Zoneof profit
  • 15. SENSITIVE ANALYSIS It’s a technique that measures change in profitability level of the project caused by a change in factors affecting the profitability level. Sensitive Analysis provides answer to the folloeing questions – what happens to the profitability level if…… 1. Demand of the product fall down. 2. If selling price of the product fall down. 3. If the level of production is declined.
  • 16. Evaluation techniques for selection of profitable project It is nothing but benefit cost analysis of various aspects of a project.  These techniques are divided into two groups: 1.Non –discounted techniques 2.Discounted techniques
  • 17. Non- discounted techniques 1. Payback period (PBP) 2. Average rate of return (ARR) 3. Urgency
  • 18. Payback Period (PBP)  It is the length of period required to get back or recover orignal investment incurred on a project through cash inflow or income.  Payback period=Orignal investment/Annual cash inflow.  Thumb rule:Project which have minimum PBP is selected.
  • 19. Average rate of return (ARR)  This method is obtained by the formula : AVERAGE INFLOW AVERAGE OUTFLOW  Thumb rule: A project having highest ARR value is selected
  • 20. Urgency  Urgency : In this method no formula or method is used. Only those projects are selected which are urgently required.
  • 21. Discounted techniques It includes : 1. Net present worth (NPW) 2. Profitability index 3. Internal rate of return (IRR) 4. Discounted benefit cost ratio
  • 22. Net Present Worth (NPW)  This is the present worth of cash flow stream.  It is referred as Net Present Value(NPV).  NPW=P1/(1+i)t +P2/(1+i)t +....+Pn/(1+i)t -C.  P1=Net cash flow in first year,  i=Discount rate,  t=Time period,  C=Initial cost of the investment.  Thumb rule:A Project having +ve & max value of NPW is selected.
  • 23. Profitability Index (PI)  It is ratio of net present values of cash flows to the initial capital expenditure.  PI = Present value of cash inflow/Present value of cash outflow.  Thumb rule: A Project with highest value of Profitability index is selected
  • 24. Internal Rate of Return (IRR)  IRR is the discounted rate which makes NPV equal to ZERO.  IRR is calculated by TRIAL and ERROR method.  IRR=(Lower discount rate)+(Diff b/w the two discont rates)*[(Present worth of the cash flow at the lower discount rate)/(Absolute diff b/w the present worths of the the cash flow at two discount rates)]
  • 25. Benefit Cost Ratio  We compare the present worth of costs with present worth of benefits.  B-C Ratio =Present value of cash inflow/Present value of cash outflow.  Thumb rule: A project with highest B-C Ratio is selected.
  • 26. NETWORK BASED SCHEDULING  It is a technique used for planning , scheduling and controlling of a project.  It is represented by graphical plan which consist of activity and event.  ACTIVITY: Any operation which consume resources( man, material, time),has start point and end point.  Activity is represented by straight arrow with circle at two points. 
  • 27. TYPES OF ACTIVITIES 1. PRECEEDING ACTIVITY: Activity which occur immediately before the succeeding activity. 2. SUCCEEDING ACTIVITY: Activity which cannot be started until one or more activities are completed. 3. DUMMY ACTIVITY: Activity which does not consume resources. It is represented by dotted arrow.
  • 28. EVENT  They are called nodes.  It does not consume resources and time.  Event is the beginning and end of an activity and is represented by a circle at specific point of time.
  • 29. TYPES OF EVENTS 1. Merge event: It represent joint completion of more than one activity. 2. Burst event: Event which represent the beginning of more than one activity. 3. Merge and Burst event : It is for sometime nerge and sometime burst.
  • 30. ERRORS IN DRAWING A NETWORK 1. Looping: Drawing an endless loop in a network . 2. Dangling: to disconnect an activity before the completion of all the activities in a network. 3. Redundancy: inserting the dummy activity in a network diagram.
  • 31. NETWOK SCHEDULING TECHNIQUE  CPM: (Critical path method) represent a logical sequence of an activity and events in a project. The duration of all these paths are added in the total duration of the path.  The path that has a longer duration duration is called critical path and activities drawn in that path are critical activities.
  • 32. FORWARD PATH COMPUTATION In this method earliest start time of all the events is is computed which begin from initial event and move toward the final event. BACKWARD PATH COMPUTATION Here we calculate the latest time. This method is start from last event and move toward initial event. Slack time: It is the diff b/w latest finish time and earliest start time.
  • 33. Activity float analysis  A study of non- critical path with regard to free time is necessary because it help in better control of project implementation and better allocation of resources.  In critical path latest finish time and earliest start time both are equal.  The slack of the event is given by diff b/w the TL and TE.  The free time available for an activity is called “float”.
  • 34. TYPES OF FLOAT 1. Total float: It represents the max time by whhich completion of an activity can be delayed w/o affecting the project completion time. Total float=[Tl of head event-Te of tail event- Duration of activity]
  • 35. 2. FREE FLOAT  Delay that can be permitted in an activity so that succeeding activity in the path are not affected.
  • 36. 3.INDEPENDENT FLOAT  IT is the spare time available for an activity .