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Managing a complex
world.
Innovation to
commoditisation.
align to the
business
keep up with
latest trends
align to the
business
keep up with
latest trends focus on core
align to the
business
keep up with
latest trends focus on core
align to the
business good
governance
keep up with
latest trends focus on core
align to the
business good
governance
detailed
planning
keep up with
latest trends focus on core
adaptable
align to the
business good
governance
detailed
planning
keep up with
latest trends focus on core
adaptable
align to the
business good
governance
detailed
planning
flexible
keep up with
latest trends focus on core
adaptable
align to the
business good
governance
secure
detailed
planning
flexible
cost efficient
keep up with
latest trends focus on core
adaptable
align to the
business good
governance
secure
detailed
pla...
innovative
cost efficient
keep up with
latest trends focus on core
adaptable
align to the
business good
governance
secure
d...
innovative
cost efficient
keep up with
latest trends
show ROI
focus on core
adaptable
align to the
business good
governance...
innovative
cost efficient
keep up with
latest trends
show ROI
focus on core
adaptable
align to the
business good
governance...
innovative
cost efficient
keep up with
latest trends
show ROI
focus on core
adaptable
align to the
business good
governance...
innovative
cost efficient
keep up with
latest trends
show ROI
focus on core
adaptable
align to the
business good
governance...
innovative
cost efficient
keep up with
latest trends
show ROI
focus on core
adaptable
align to the
business good
governance...
innovative
cost efficient
keep up with
latest trends
show ROI
focus on core
adaptable
align to the
business good
governance...
innovative
cost efficient
keep up with
latest trends
show ROI
focus on core
adaptable
align to the
business good
governance...
innovative
cost efficient
keep up with
latest trends
show ROI
focus on core
adaptable
align to the
business good
governance...
innovative
cost efficient
keep up with
latest trends
show ROI
focus on core
adaptable
align to the
business good
governance...
innovative
cost efficient
keep up with
latest trends
show ROI
focus on core
adaptable
align to the
business good
governance...
Infamy,
Infamy ...
Printing
Ducks
Open Source
Information Tech.
Football
Chaos
Politics
Genetics
People
Participation
Freedom
Environment
Ele...
Printing
Ducks
Open Source
Information Tech.
Football
Chaos
Politics
Genetics
People
Participation
Freedom
Environment
Ele...
http://www.flickr.com/photos/vickispix/303920709
http://flickr.com/photos/angermann/54282399/
http://www.flickr.com/photos/mscolly/145052885/
Commoditisation
Commoditisation
Impact
Commoditisation
Impact
Innovation
Commoditisation
Impact
Innovation
Why nothing is simple
Commoditisation
Impact
Innovation
Why nothing is simple
Predictions
DANGER!
Will Robinson
DANGER!
http://bancomicsans.com/home.html
45 mins
385 slides
http://www.flickr.com/photos/greencracker/960860731/
http://flickr.com/photos/angermann/54282399/
http://www.flickr.com/photos/inkytwist/364224409/
End of
DANGER!
Commoditisation
Impact
Innovation
Why nothing is simple
Predictions
change from monopolistic
to perfect competition
Yesterday’s
hot stuff
Today’s
boredom
http://www.flickr.com/photos/jm999uk/1239833037/sizes/l/
http://www.flickr.com/photos/vickispix/303920709
New ThingNew
New Thing
Leading
Edge
New
New Thing Products
Leading
Edge
New
New Thing Products
Common
Utility
Leading
Edge
New
New Thing Products
Common
Utility
Leading
Edge
New
PRESSURE
1890’s
Electricity
Screenshot taken from web at http://www.sandowplus.co.uk/index2.htm
Screenshot taken from web at http://padovacultura.padovanet.it/homepage-6.0/Oliver%20twist%204.JPG
Chicago Daily News negatives collection, DN-0003451. Courtesy of the Chicago Historical Society.
Electricity is a powerful
constitutional tonic
American Electrotherapeutic Association, 1892
http://www.scene-stealers.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/10/bride_of_frankenstein.jpg
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/5/51/Metropolis.jpg
Harvey Hubbell
(1857-1927)
1890’s 1930’s
Electricity
National
Grid
Yesterday’s
hot stuff
Today’s
boredom
Internet
Power
CPU.
Internet
Power
CPU.
Google
Joseph A. Schumpeter
(1883 - 1950)
The fundamental impulse that
sets and keeps the capitalist
engine in motion comes from
...
Joseph A. Schumpeter
(1883 - 1950)
The fundamental impulse that
sets and keeps the capitalist
engine in motion comes from
...
Joseph A. Schumpeter
(1883 - 1950)
Creative
Destruction
New
Competitive
Advantage
Common
Utility
Cost of doing
business
Products
web
Competitive
Advantage
Screenshots taken from web at http://www.strassmann.com/
http://www.flickr.com/photos/billege/266513181/
http://www.flickr.com/photos/billege/266513181/
Competitive
Advantage
Nick Carr
As IT becomes
ubiquitous ... it
has no strategic
value
Cost of doing
business
web 1.0
Yesterday’s
hot stuff
Today’s
boredom
web 2.0
Joseph A. Schumpeter
(1883 - 1950)
Creative
Destruction
http://www.flickr.com/photos/inkytwist/364224409/
1890’s 1930’s
Electricity
National
Grid
New Thing Products
Common
Utility
Leading
Edge
New
PRESSURE
Internet
Power
CPU.
Google
Joseph A. Schumpeter
(1883 - 1950)
Creative
Destruction
Nick Carr
As IT becomes
ubiquitous ... it
has no strategic
value
Commoditisation
Impact
Innovation
Why nothing is simple
Predictions
+
+
http://www.flickr.com/photos/sheds/709701976/
Service
Service
Service
Service
Service
Service
App
Internal
App
Internal
Internal
Internal
Enterprise
Service
Bus
External
Internal
External
App
Internal
Enterprise
Service
Bus
External
Internal
External
App
App
Internal
External
Enterprise
Service
Bus
App
External
Internal
External
App
App
Internal
External
Enterprise
Service
Bus
App
External
Internal
External
App
App
Internal
External
Enterprise
Service
Bus
Infrastructure
De Architectura
Marcus Vitruvius
Pollio
(80-25 BC)
http://www.bl.uk/popups/science14-pop.html
Service Orientated
Architecture
Virtualisation
Software as a Service
(SaaS)
Utility computing
Grid
Computing
modified from http://www.flickr.com/photos/juanillooo/471668553/
http://www.flickr.com/photos/librarygeek/445462071
Definitions
Service Oriented
Architecture (SOA)
An architectural style for
creating and using business
processes as services.
Virtualisation
A technique for hiding
physical characteristics of
computing resources from its
consumers.
Grid computing
A technical architecture
consisting of a collection of
computers acting as though
they are a single compute...
Utility computing
The packaging of computing
resources, such as
computation and storage as
a metered service.
Software as a Service
(SaaS)
A delivery model where
vendors operate and host
services for use by customers
over the intern...
SOA
SaaS
Utility
Grid
Virtualisation
De Architectura
Marcus Vitruvius
Pollio
(80-25 BC)
http://www.bl.uk/popups/science14-pop.html
Service Orientated
Architecture
Virtualisation
Software as a Service
(SaaS)
Utility computing
Grid
Computing
Hardware
Application
Framework
New Thing Products
Leading
Edge
New
Hardware
Application
Framework
New Thing Products
Common
Utility
Leading
Edge
New
Hardware
Application
Framework
http://www.flickr.com/photos/inkytwist/364224409/
Yesterday’s
hot stuff
Today’s
boredom
New Thing Products
Common
Utility
Leading
Edge
New
PRESSURE
Service
Service
Service
New
Joseph A. Schumpeter
(1883 - 1950)
Creative
Destruction
+
New Thing Products
Common
Utility
Leading
Edge
New
PRESSURE
Hardware
Application
Framework
Commoditisation
Impact
Innovation
Why nothing is simple
Predictions
CommonNew
COMMODITISATION
CommonNew
New
Innovation
Innovation
?
http://www.flickr.com/photos/librarygeek/445462071
John Locke
(1632 - 1704)
It being that term
which, I think,
serves best to stand
for whatsoever is the
object of
understan...
InnovationIdea
Professor Jan Fagerberg
Innovation is the
first attempt to
carry out [an idea]
into practice.
Q. the first wireless
radio?
Nikola Tesla,
1893
Q. the first useable
electric light bulb?
Sir Joseph Wilson
Swan, 1860
http://www.americanrevolution.com/BenjaminFranklinDiscoversElectricity.jpg
Thomas Francois
Dalibard,
May 1752
http://memory.loc.gov/master/mss/mwright/04/04003/0030d.jpg
Felix Du
Temple,
1874
“Whenever you prove who was
first, the harder you look you
will find someone else who was
more first”
Eliot Sivowitch
Professor Jan Fagerberg
Innovation is the
first-ish attempt
to carry out [an
idea] into practice.
InnovationIdea
InnovationIdea
Francesco Petrarca
(1304 - 1374)
Founder of the
Humanist movement
(Renaissance)
InnovationIdea
Invention
Discovery
InnovationIdea
Invention
Discovery
InnovationIdea
Invention
Discovery
InnovationIdea
Invention
Discovery
InnovationIdea
Invention
Discovery
Idea
Invention
Discovery
CommonInnovation
1. Not a straight line
Internet
Power
CPU.
Google
Idea
Invention
DiscoveryCommo
n
Innovation
Idea
Invention
DiscoveryCommo
n
Innovation
Idea
Invention
Discovery
CommonInnovation
2. Not just things
Idea
Invention
Discovery
Practice
3. Not everything
spreads
Idea
Invention
Discovery
Innovation
4. Acceleration
Idea
Invention
Discovery
CommonInnovation
NETWORK EFFECTS
Idea
Invention
Discovery
CommonInnovation
INTERNET
Idea
Invention
Discovery
CommonInnovation
STANDARDS
Idea
Invention
Discovery
CommonInnovation
OPEN SOURCE
5. Friend and Foe
Idea
Invention
Discovery
CommonInnovation
NON STRATEGIC COST
Screenshot taken from web at http://www.sandowplus.co.uk/index2.htm
Distribution
Distribution
Distribution
Distribution
Barrier to
Participation
Cost of Doing
Business
http://www.flickr.com/photos/inkytwist/364224409/
New Thing Products
Common
Utility
Leading
Edge
New
PRESSURE
New Thing Products
Common
Utility
Leading
Edge
New
PRESSURE
Hardware
Software
Framework
Service
Service
Service
New
Innovation
?
Idea
Invention
Discovery
CommonInnovation
Idea
Invention
Discovery
CommonInnovation
Idea
Invention
Discovery
Practice
Idea
Invention
Discovery
Innovation
Idea
Invention
Discovery
CommonInnovation
NETWORK EFFECTS
Printing and
Distribution
Commoditisation
Impact
Innovation
Why nothing is simple
Predictions
Idea
Invention
Discovery
Common
Innovation
Novel
Low High
Common
http://flickr.com/photos/angermann/54282399/
Printing
Graphs
Open Source
Information Tech.
Football
Fotango
Politics
Genetics
People
Participation
Freedom
Environment
...
Printing
E=mc
Open Source
Information Tech.
Football
Fotango
Politics
Genetics
People
Participation
Freedom
Environment
El...
http://www.flickr.com/photos/greencracker/960860731/
http://flickr.com/photos/angermann/54282399/
http://www.flickr.com/photos/librarygeek/445462071
Activity
A process, sub-process or
result thereof, including any
product or service consumed
or created
Everett Rogers
(1931-2004)
Adoption
Time
Ubiquity
Novel
Ubiquity
NovelCommon
Ubiquity
NovelCommon
Certainty
Novel
Low
Common
Certainty
Novel
Certainty
Low High
Common
Novel
Low High
Common
Ubiquity
Certainty
Novel
Low High
Common
Ubiquity
Certainty
Novel
Low High
Common
Early 80s -
innovation
of CRM
Novel
Low High
Common
Mid 80s - early
adoption of database
marketing.
Novel
Low High
Common
Early 90s -
CRM products
Novel
Low High
Common
Novel
Low High
Common
Early 00s -
Utility-like
CRM
Novel
Low High
Common
Early 80s -
innovation
of CRM
Novel
Low High
Common
Innovation
Novel
Low High
Common
Early 00s -
Utility-like
CRM
Novel
Low High
Common
Commodity
Novel
Low High
Common
Innovation
Commodity
http://www.flickr.com/photos/jm999uk/1239833037/sizes/l/
http://www.flickr.com/photos/vickispix/303920709
Novel
Low High
Common
Innovation
Novel
Low High
Common
Web 3.0
Scarcity of information
Novel
Low High
Common
Web 3.0
Scarcity of information
Undefined
Novel
Low High
Common
Web 3.0
Scarcity of information
Undefined
Few competitors
Novel
Low High
Common
Web 3.0
Scarcity of information
Undefined
Few competitors
High Cost
Novel
Low High
Common
Web 3.0
Deviation from norms is
necessary
Novel
Low High
Common
Web 3.0
Deviation from norms is
necessary
Agile (XP, SCRUM)
Novel
Low High
Common
Web 3.0
Deviation from norms is
necessary
Agile (XP, SCRUM)
Competitive advantage
Novel
Low High
Common
Web 3.0
Deviation from norms is
necessary
Agile (XP, SCRUM)
VC like funding
Competitive advantage
Novel
Low High
Common
Web 3.0
Novel
Low High
Common
Commodity
Novel
Low High
Common
Telephone
Wealth of
information
Novel
Low High
Common
Telephone
Wealth of
information
Defined
Novel
Low High
Common
Telephone
Wealth of
information
Defined
Many competitors
Novel
Low High
Common
Telephone
Wealth of
information
Defined
Many competitors
Low Cost
Novel
Low High
Common
Telephone
Deviation from
norms is
undesireable
Novel
Low High
Common
Telephone
Deviation from
norms is
undesireable
Defined (Prince,
Six Sigma)
Novel
Low High
Common
Telephone
Deviation from
norms is
undesireable
Defined (Prince,
Six Sigma)
Cost of doing
business
Novel
Low High
Common
Telephone
Deviation from
norms is
undesireable
Defined (Prince,
Six Sigma)
Cost of doing
business
Focus on cost
Novel
Low High
Common...
Novel
Low High
Common
Telephone
Scarcity of information
Undefined
Few competitors
High Cost
Novel
Low High
Common
Telephone
Novel
Low High
Common
Innovation
Commodity
Novel
Low High
Common
Agile
Defined
Novel
Low High
Common
CRM
CRM
Observation 1
Methodologies
Novel
Low High
Common
Novel
Low High
Common
Novel
Low High
Common
Novel
Low High
Common
Six Sigma
Novel
Low High
Common
Commodity
Six Sigma
Novel
Low High
Common
Six Sigma
Innovation
Novel
Low High
Common
Different
Methodologies
Observation 2
Outsourcing
Operations
IT
HR
Marketing
Sales
Finance
Operations
IT
HR
Marketing
Sales
Finance
IT Activities
Operations
IT
HR
Marketing
Sales
Finance
IT Activities
Marketing
Activities
Operations
IT
HR
Marketing
Sales
Finance
Marketing
Activities
Operations
IT
HR
Marketing
Sales
Finance
Novel
Low
Commodity
High
Common
Innovation
Novel
Low
Transition
High
Common
Joseph A. Schumpeter
(1883 - 1950)
Creative
Destruction
Operations
IT
HR
Marketing
Sales
Finance
Observation 3
Vendors
Novel
Low High
Common
Competitive Advantage
Exclusive
High ValueCustomer
perception
Novel
Low High
Common
Product
Wealth of information
Low cost to produce
Many
consumers
Novel
Low High
Common
Product
Customer
perception
Novel
Low High
Common
Perception
gap
Novel
Low High
Common
Branding
Observation 4
Organisation
Operations
IT
HR
Marketing
Sales
Finance
Novel
Low
Commodity
High
Common
Operations
IT
HR
Marketing
Sales
Finance
Six sigma
Novel
Low High
Common
Operations
IT
HR
Marketing
Sales
Finance
IT Activities
Marketing
Activities
Novel
Low High
Common
Innovation CommodityTransition
Collective
Intelligence
Knowledge
Capture
Participation Architectures
Social Networks
Mass Collaboration
Wikis
Aggregation
Enterprise 2.0
Novel
Low High
Common
The system must be able to equal the
number of states in the input with at
least an equivalent number of states in
the reg...
Novel
Low High
Common
Defined
Survival requires ‘coherence,
coordination and stability’.
Innovation requires the replacement of
these erstwhile virtues....
Observation 5
Order and Disorder
Novel
Low High
Common
Maintain office facilities
Set budgets
Manage payroll
Recruit staff
Capture customer
request for serv...
Novel
Low High
Common
Maintain office facilities
Set budgets
Manage payroll
Recruit staff
Capture customer
request for serv...
New Thing Products
Common
Utility
Leading
Edge
New
PRESSURE
Professor Leigh M. Van Valen
Red Queen
Hypothesis
Adapt to
survive today.
Adapt to
survive today.
Innovate to
survive tomorrow.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/sheds/709701976/
De Architectura
Marcus Vitruvius
Pollio
(80-25 BC)
http://www.bl.uk/popups/science14-pop.html
Herbert A. Simon
1916-2001
Theory of
Hiearchy
Competitive
Competitive
Cost of Doing
Business
Competitive
Cost of Doing
Business
Novel
Low
Commodity
High
Common
Competitive
Cost of Doing
Business
App
External
Internal
External
App
App
Internal
External
Enterprise
Service Bus
Infrast...
Competitive
Cost of Doing
Business
Novel
Low High
Common
Innovation
Survival requires ‘coherence,
coordination and stability’.
Innovation requires the replacement of
these erstwhile virtues....
http://www.flickr.com/photos/inkytwist/364224409/
Yesterday’s
hot stuff
Today’s
boredom
Nick Carr
As IT becomes
ubiquitous ... it
has no strategic
value
New Thing Products
Common
Utility
Leading
Edge
New
PRESSURE
Hardware
Software
Framework
App
External
Internal
External
App
App
Internal
External
Enterprise
Service
Bus
Infrastructure
Service
Service
Service
Innovations
Idea
Invention
Discovery
CommonInnovation
Idea
Invention
Discovery
CommonInnovation
Novel
Low High
Common
Innovation
Commodity
Novel
Low High
Common
Different
Methodologies
Innovation
Novel
Low
Transition
High
Common
Novel
Low High
Common
Perception
gap
Novel
Low High
Common
Defined
Joseph A. Schumpeter
(1883 - 1950)
Creative
Destruction
Adapt to
survive today.
Innovate to
survive tomorrow.
Survival requires ‘coherence,
coordination and stability’.
Innovation requires the replacement of
these erstwhile virtues....
Commoditisation
Impact
Innovation
Why nothing is simple
Predictions
DANGER!
Will Robinson
DANGER!
Practical Steps
Low High
Certainty
Innovation
First Mover
Transitional
CommodityNovelCommon
Ubiquity
Low High
Certainty
Transitional
CommodityNovelCommon
Ubiquity
Low High
Certainty
Innovation
First Mover
NovelCommon
Ubiquity
Uncertain & Risky
Investment strategy
Potential CA
Deviation is necessary
Unknown market / effect
You’re on your own
+ve
-...
+ve
-ve
Time
Low HighCertainty
NovelCommonUbiquity
Effect
First Mover
Prediction is possible
ROI strategy
Actual CA
Custom...
+ve
-ve
Time
Low HighCertainty
NovelCommonUbiquity
Effect
Transition
Whitepapers / Conferences
ROI strategy
Declining CA
S...
+ve
-ve
Time
Low HighCertainty
NovelCommonUbiquity
Effect
Commodity
Best practices etc.
Cost focus
Cost of doing business
...
Low High
Certainty
Pioneer
Colonist
Town PlannerNovelCommon
Ubiquity
Map your business
Be aware of lifecycle
Think componentisation
Think organisation
Novel
Low High
Common
Defined
Commoditisation
Impact
Innovation
Why nothing is simple
Predictions
De Architectura
Marcus Vitruvius
Pollio
(80-25 BC)
http://www.bl.uk/popups/science14-pop.html
Novel
Low
Commodity
High
Common
New Thing Products
Common
Utility
Leading
Edge
New
PRESSURE
Hardware
Software
Framework
App
External
Internal
External
App
App
Internal
External
Enterprise
Service
Bus
Infrastructure
Service
Service
Service
Innovations
Idea
Invention
Discovery
CommonInnovation
1. An increase in the rate
at which innovative
services and products are
released to the web.
New Thing Products
Common
Utility
Leading
Edge
New
PRESSURE
Hardware
Software
Framework
New Thing Products
Common
Utility
Leading
Edge
New
Hardware
Software
Framework
NON STRATEGIC COST
Barrier to
Participation
Non-Strategic
CODB
Competitive
Advantage
2. More disruption in the
information markets.
New Thing Products
Common
Utility
Leading
Edge
New
PRESSURE
Hardware
Software
Framework
De Architectura
Marcus Vitruvius
Pollio
(80-25 BC)
http://www.bl.uk/popups/science14-pop.html
Novel
Low High
Common
Novel
Low High
Common
Defined
Joseph A. Schumpeter
(1883 - 1950)
Creative
Destruction
Survival requires ‘coherence,
coordination and stability’.
Innovation requires the replacement of
these erstwhile virtues....
3. Increasing organisational
pressure within IT.
App
External
Internal
External
App
App
Internal
External
Enterprise
Service
Bus
Infrastructure
Novel
Low High
Common
Maintain office facilities
Set budgets
Manage payroll
Recruit staff
Capture customer
request for serv...
Novel
Low High
Common
Innovation
Commodity
Novel
Low High
Common
Branding
4.The architecture will
never be completed.
1. Faster, Faster.
2. More disruption.
1. Faster, Faster.
3. Increasing pressure.
2. More disruption.
1. Faster, Faster.
4. Never completed.
3. Increasing pressure.
2. More disruption.
1. Faster, Faster.
Infamy,
Infamy ...
Thank you
swardley@mac.com
http://blog.gardeviance.org
swardley@mac.com
http://blog.gardeviance.org
For Hire!
Events &
Consultancy
Interim Exec.
Advisory Board.
+ ...
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Managing a Complex World
Managing a Complex World
Managing a Complex World
Managing a Complex World
Managing a Complex World
Managing a Complex World
Managing a Complex World
Managing a Complex World
Managing a Complex World
Managing a Complex World
Managing a Complex World
Managing a Complex World
Managing a Complex World
Managing a Complex World
Managing a Complex World
Managing a Complex World
Managing a Complex World
Managing a Complex World
Managing a Complex World
Managing a Complex World
Managing a Complex World
Managing a Complex World
Managing a Complex World
Managing a Complex World
Managing a Complex World
Managing a Complex World
Managing a Complex World
Managing a Complex World
Managing a Complex World
Managing a Complex World
Managing a Complex World
Managing a Complex World
Managing a Complex World
Managing a Complex World
Managing a Complex World
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Managing a Complex World

  1. 1. Managing a complex world.
  2. 2. Innovation to commoditisation.
  3. 3. align to the business
  4. 4. keep up with latest trends align to the business
  5. 5. keep up with latest trends focus on core align to the business
  6. 6. keep up with latest trends focus on core align to the business good governance
  7. 7. keep up with latest trends focus on core align to the business good governance detailed planning
  8. 8. keep up with latest trends focus on core adaptable align to the business good governance detailed planning
  9. 9. keep up with latest trends focus on core adaptable align to the business good governance detailed planning flexible
  10. 10. keep up with latest trends focus on core adaptable align to the business good governance secure detailed planning flexible
  11. 11. cost efficient keep up with latest trends focus on core adaptable align to the business good governance secure detailed planning flexible
  12. 12. innovative cost efficient keep up with latest trends focus on core adaptable align to the business good governance secure detailed planning flexible
  13. 13. innovative cost efficient keep up with latest trends show ROI focus on core adaptable align to the business good governance secure detailed planning flexible
  14. 14. innovative cost efficient keep up with latest trends show ROI focus on core adaptable align to the business good governance secure detailed planning flexible SAAS
  15. 15. innovative cost efficient keep up with latest trends show ROI focus on core adaptable align to the business good governance secure detailed planning flexible Utility computing SAAS
  16. 16. innovative cost efficient keep up with latest trends show ROI focus on core adaptable align to the business good governance secure detailed planning flexible Utility computing SAAS Web 2.0
  17. 17. innovative cost efficient keep up with latest trends show ROI focus on core adaptable align to the business good governance secure detailed planning flexible Utility computing SAAS Web 2.0 Web 3.0
  18. 18. innovative cost efficient keep up with latest trends show ROI focus on core adaptable align to the business good governance secure detailed planning flexible Utility computing SAAS Web 2.0 Web 3.0 Enterprise 2.0
  19. 19. innovative cost efficient keep up with latest trends show ROI focus on core adaptable align to the business good governance secure detailed planning flexible Utility computing SAAS Web 2.0 Web 3.0 Enterprise 2.0 BPEL
  20. 20. innovative cost efficient keep up with latest trends show ROI focus on core adaptable align to the business good governance secure detailed planning flexible Utility computing SAAS Web 2.0 Web 3.0 Enterprise 2.0 BPEL BPMN
  21. 21. innovative cost efficient keep up with latest trends show ROI focus on core adaptable align to the business good governance secure detailed planning flexible Utility computing SAAS Web 2.0 Web 3.0 Enterprise 2.0 BPEL BPMNTOGAF
  22. 22. innovative cost efficient keep up with latest trends show ROI focus on core adaptable align to the business good governance secure detailed planning flexible Utility computing SAAS Web 2.0 Web 3.0 Enterprise 2.0 BPEL BPMNTOGAF Open source
  23. 23. Infamy, Infamy ...
  24. 24. Printing Ducks Open Source Information Tech. Football Chaos Politics Genetics People Participation Freedom Environment Electronics Patents Commoditisation Maths
  25. 25. Printing Ducks Open Source Information Tech. Football Chaos Politics Genetics People Participation Freedom Environment Electronics Patents Commoditisation Maths
  26. 26. http://www.flickr.com/photos/vickispix/303920709
  27. 27. http://flickr.com/photos/angermann/54282399/
  28. 28. http://www.flickr.com/photos/mscolly/145052885/
  29. 29. Commoditisation
  30. 30. Commoditisation Impact
  31. 31. Commoditisation Impact Innovation
  32. 32. Commoditisation Impact Innovation Why nothing is simple
  33. 33. Commoditisation Impact Innovation Why nothing is simple Predictions
  34. 34. DANGER! Will Robinson DANGER!
  35. 35. http://bancomicsans.com/home.html
  36. 36. 45 mins
  37. 37. 385 slides
  38. 38. http://www.flickr.com/photos/greencracker/960860731/
  39. 39. http://flickr.com/photos/angermann/54282399/
  40. 40. http://www.flickr.com/photos/inkytwist/364224409/
  41. 41. End of DANGER!
  42. 42. Commoditisation Impact Innovation Why nothing is simple Predictions
  43. 43. change from monopolistic to perfect competition
  44. 44. Yesterday’s hot stuff Today’s boredom
  45. 45. http://www.flickr.com/photos/jm999uk/1239833037/sizes/l/
  46. 46. http://www.flickr.com/photos/vickispix/303920709
  47. 47. New ThingNew
  48. 48. New Thing Leading Edge New
  49. 49. New Thing Products Leading Edge New
  50. 50. New Thing Products Common Utility Leading Edge New
  51. 51. New Thing Products Common Utility Leading Edge New PRESSURE
  52. 52. 1890’s Electricity
  53. 53. Screenshot taken from web at http://www.sandowplus.co.uk/index2.htm
  54. 54. Screenshot taken from web at http://padovacultura.padovanet.it/homepage-6.0/Oliver%20twist%204.JPG
  55. 55. Chicago Daily News negatives collection, DN-0003451. Courtesy of the Chicago Historical Society.
  56. 56. Electricity is a powerful constitutional tonic American Electrotherapeutic Association, 1892
  57. 57. http://www.scene-stealers.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/10/bride_of_frankenstein.jpg
  58. 58. http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/5/51/Metropolis.jpg
  59. 59. Harvey Hubbell (1857-1927)
  60. 60. 1890’s 1930’s Electricity National Grid
  61. 61. Yesterday’s hot stuff Today’s boredom
  62. 62. Internet Power CPU.
  63. 63. Internet Power CPU. Google
  64. 64. Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950) The fundamental impulse that sets and keeps the capitalist engine in motion comes from the new consumers, goods, the new methods of production or transportation, the new markets, the new forms of industrial organization that capitalist enterprise creates.
  65. 65. Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950) The fundamental impulse that sets and keeps the capitalist engine in motion comes from the new consumers, goods, the new methods of production or transportation, the new markets, the new forms of industrial organization that capitalist enterprise creates.
  66. 66. Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950) Creative Destruction
  67. 67. New Competitive Advantage
  68. 68. Common Utility Cost of doing business Products
  69. 69. web Competitive Advantage
  70. 70. Screenshots taken from web at http://www.strassmann.com/
  71. 71. http://www.flickr.com/photos/billege/266513181/
  72. 72. http://www.flickr.com/photos/billege/266513181/
  73. 73. Competitive Advantage
  74. 74. Nick Carr As IT becomes ubiquitous ... it has no strategic value
  75. 75. Cost of doing business
  76. 76. web 1.0
  77. 77. Yesterday’s hot stuff Today’s boredom
  78. 78. web 2.0
  79. 79. Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950) Creative Destruction
  80. 80. http://www.flickr.com/photos/inkytwist/364224409/
  81. 81. 1890’s 1930’s Electricity National Grid
  82. 82. New Thing Products Common Utility Leading Edge New PRESSURE
  83. 83. Internet Power CPU. Google
  84. 84. Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950) Creative Destruction
  85. 85. Nick Carr As IT becomes ubiquitous ... it has no strategic value
  86. 86. Commoditisation Impact Innovation Why nothing is simple Predictions
  87. 87. +
  88. 88. +
  89. 89. http://www.flickr.com/photos/sheds/709701976/
  90. 90. Service Service Service
  91. 91. Service Service Service App
  92. 92. Internal App Internal Internal Internal Enterprise Service Bus
  93. 93. External Internal External App Internal Enterprise Service Bus
  94. 94. External Internal External App App Internal External Enterprise Service Bus
  95. 95. App External Internal External App App Internal External Enterprise Service Bus
  96. 96. App External Internal External App App Internal External Enterprise Service Bus Infrastructure
  97. 97. De Architectura Marcus Vitruvius Pollio (80-25 BC) http://www.bl.uk/popups/science14-pop.html
  98. 98. Service Orientated Architecture Virtualisation Software as a Service (SaaS) Utility computing Grid Computing
  99. 99. modified from http://www.flickr.com/photos/juanillooo/471668553/
  100. 100. http://www.flickr.com/photos/librarygeek/445462071
  101. 101. Definitions
  102. 102. Service Oriented Architecture (SOA) An architectural style for creating and using business processes as services.
  103. 103. Virtualisation A technique for hiding physical characteristics of computing resources from its consumers.
  104. 104. Grid computing A technical architecture consisting of a collection of computers acting as though they are a single computer.
  105. 105. Utility computing The packaging of computing resources, such as computation and storage as a metered service.
  106. 106. Software as a Service (SaaS) A delivery model where vendors operate and host services for use by customers over the internet.
  107. 107. SOA
  108. 108. SaaS
  109. 109. Utility
  110. 110. Grid
  111. 111. Virtualisation
  112. 112. De Architectura Marcus Vitruvius Pollio (80-25 BC) http://www.bl.uk/popups/science14-pop.html
  113. 113. Service Orientated Architecture Virtualisation Software as a Service (SaaS) Utility computing Grid Computing
  114. 114. Hardware Application Framework
  115. 115. New Thing Products Leading Edge New Hardware Application Framework
  116. 116. New Thing Products Common Utility Leading Edge New Hardware Application Framework
  117. 117. http://www.flickr.com/photos/inkytwist/364224409/
  118. 118. Yesterday’s hot stuff Today’s boredom
  119. 119. New Thing Products Common Utility Leading Edge New PRESSURE
  120. 120. Service Service Service New
  121. 121. Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950) Creative Destruction
  122. 122. +
  123. 123. New Thing Products Common Utility Leading Edge New PRESSURE Hardware Application Framework
  124. 124. Commoditisation Impact Innovation Why nothing is simple Predictions
  125. 125. CommonNew COMMODITISATION
  126. 126. CommonNew
  127. 127. New
  128. 128. Innovation
  129. 129. Innovation ?
  130. 130. http://www.flickr.com/photos/librarygeek/445462071
  131. 131. John Locke (1632 - 1704) It being that term which, I think, serves best to stand for whatsoever is the object of understanding when man thinks.
  132. 132. InnovationIdea
  133. 133. Professor Jan Fagerberg Innovation is the first attempt to carry out [an idea] into practice.
  134. 134. Q. the first wireless radio?
  135. 135. Nikola Tesla, 1893
  136. 136. Q. the first useable electric light bulb?
  137. 137. Sir Joseph Wilson Swan, 1860
  138. 138. http://www.americanrevolution.com/BenjaminFranklinDiscoversElectricity.jpg
  139. 139. Thomas Francois Dalibard, May 1752
  140. 140. http://memory.loc.gov/master/mss/mwright/04/04003/0030d.jpg
  141. 141. Felix Du Temple, 1874
  142. 142. “Whenever you prove who was first, the harder you look you will find someone else who was more first” Eliot Sivowitch
  143. 143. Professor Jan Fagerberg Innovation is the first-ish attempt to carry out [an idea] into practice.
  144. 144. InnovationIdea
  145. 145. InnovationIdea
  146. 146. Francesco Petrarca (1304 - 1374) Founder of the Humanist movement (Renaissance)
  147. 147. InnovationIdea Invention Discovery
  148. 148. InnovationIdea Invention Discovery
  149. 149. InnovationIdea Invention Discovery
  150. 150. InnovationIdea Invention Discovery
  151. 151. InnovationIdea Invention Discovery
  152. 152. Idea Invention Discovery CommonInnovation
  153. 153. 1. Not a straight line
  154. 154. Internet Power CPU. Google
  155. 155. Idea Invention DiscoveryCommo n Innovation
  156. 156. Idea Invention DiscoveryCommo n Innovation
  157. 157. Idea Invention Discovery CommonInnovation
  158. 158. 2. Not just things
  159. 159. Idea Invention Discovery Practice
  160. 160. 3. Not everything spreads
  161. 161. Idea Invention Discovery Innovation
  162. 162. 4. Acceleration
  163. 163. Idea Invention Discovery CommonInnovation NETWORK EFFECTS
  164. 164. Idea Invention Discovery CommonInnovation INTERNET
  165. 165. Idea Invention Discovery CommonInnovation STANDARDS
  166. 166. Idea Invention Discovery CommonInnovation OPEN SOURCE
  167. 167. 5. Friend and Foe
  168. 168. Idea Invention Discovery CommonInnovation NON STRATEGIC COST
  169. 169. Screenshot taken from web at http://www.sandowplus.co.uk/index2.htm
  170. 170. Distribution
  171. 171. Distribution
  172. 172. Distribution
  173. 173. Distribution
  174. 174. Barrier to Participation Cost of Doing Business
  175. 175. http://www.flickr.com/photos/inkytwist/364224409/
  176. 176. New Thing Products Common Utility Leading Edge New PRESSURE
  177. 177. New Thing Products Common Utility Leading Edge New PRESSURE Hardware Software Framework
  178. 178. Service Service Service New
  179. 179. Innovation ?
  180. 180. Idea Invention Discovery CommonInnovation
  181. 181. Idea Invention Discovery CommonInnovation
  182. 182. Idea Invention Discovery Practice
  183. 183. Idea Invention Discovery Innovation
  184. 184. Idea Invention Discovery CommonInnovation NETWORK EFFECTS
  185. 185. Printing and Distribution
  186. 186. Commoditisation Impact Innovation Why nothing is simple Predictions
  187. 187. Idea Invention Discovery Common Innovation Novel Low High Common
  188. 188. http://flickr.com/photos/angermann/54282399/
  189. 189. Printing Graphs Open Source Information Tech. Football Fotango Politics Genetics People Participation Freedom Environment Electronics Patents Commoditisation Maths
  190. 190. Printing E=mc Open Source Information Tech. Football Fotango Politics Genetics People Participation Freedom Environment Electronics Patents Commoditisation Maths 2
  191. 191. http://www.flickr.com/photos/greencracker/960860731/
  192. 192. http://flickr.com/photos/angermann/54282399/
  193. 193. http://www.flickr.com/photos/librarygeek/445462071
  194. 194. Activity A process, sub-process or result thereof, including any product or service consumed or created
  195. 195. Everett Rogers (1931-2004) Adoption Time
  196. 196. Ubiquity
  197. 197. Novel Ubiquity
  198. 198. NovelCommon Ubiquity
  199. 199. NovelCommon Certainty
  200. 200. Novel Low Common Certainty
  201. 201. Novel Certainty Low High Common
  202. 202. Novel Low High Common Ubiquity Certainty
  203. 203. Novel Low High Common Ubiquity Certainty
  204. 204. Novel Low High Common
  205. 205. Early 80s - innovation of CRM Novel Low High Common
  206. 206. Mid 80s - early adoption of database marketing. Novel Low High Common
  207. 207. Early 90s - CRM products Novel Low High Common
  208. 208. Novel Low High Common Early 00s - Utility-like CRM
  209. 209. Novel Low High Common Early 80s - innovation of CRM
  210. 210. Novel Low High Common Innovation
  211. 211. Novel Low High Common Early 00s - Utility-like CRM
  212. 212. Novel Low High Common Commodity
  213. 213. Novel Low High Common Innovation Commodity
  214. 214. http://www.flickr.com/photos/jm999uk/1239833037/sizes/l/
  215. 215. http://www.flickr.com/photos/vickispix/303920709
  216. 216. Novel Low High Common Innovation
  217. 217. Novel Low High Common Web 3.0
  218. 218. Scarcity of information Novel Low High Common Web 3.0
  219. 219. Scarcity of information Undefined Novel Low High Common Web 3.0
  220. 220. Scarcity of information Undefined Few competitors Novel Low High Common Web 3.0
  221. 221. Scarcity of information Undefined Few competitors High Cost Novel Low High Common Web 3.0
  222. 222. Deviation from norms is necessary Novel Low High Common Web 3.0
  223. 223. Deviation from norms is necessary Agile (XP, SCRUM) Novel Low High Common Web 3.0
  224. 224. Deviation from norms is necessary Agile (XP, SCRUM) Competitive advantage Novel Low High Common Web 3.0
  225. 225. Deviation from norms is necessary Agile (XP, SCRUM) VC like funding Competitive advantage Novel Low High Common Web 3.0
  226. 226. Novel Low High Common Commodity
  227. 227. Novel Low High Common Telephone
  228. 228. Wealth of information Novel Low High Common Telephone
  229. 229. Wealth of information Defined Novel Low High Common Telephone
  230. 230. Wealth of information Defined Many competitors Novel Low High Common Telephone
  231. 231. Wealth of information Defined Many competitors Low Cost Novel Low High Common Telephone
  232. 232. Deviation from norms is undesireable Novel Low High Common Telephone
  233. 233. Deviation from norms is undesireable Defined (Prince, Six Sigma) Novel Low High Common Telephone
  234. 234. Deviation from norms is undesireable Defined (Prince, Six Sigma) Cost of doing business Novel Low High Common Telephone
  235. 235. Deviation from norms is undesireable Defined (Prince, Six Sigma) Cost of doing business Focus on cost Novel Low High Common Telephone
  236. 236. Novel Low High Common Telephone
  237. 237. Scarcity of information Undefined Few competitors High Cost Novel Low High Common Telephone
  238. 238. Novel Low High Common Innovation Commodity
  239. 239. Novel Low High Common Agile Defined
  240. 240. Novel Low High Common CRM CRM
  241. 241. Observation 1 Methodologies
  242. 242. Novel Low High Common
  243. 243. Novel Low High Common
  244. 244. Novel Low High Common
  245. 245. Novel Low High Common Six Sigma
  246. 246. Novel Low High Common Commodity Six Sigma
  247. 247. Novel Low High Common Six Sigma Innovation
  248. 248. Novel Low High Common Different Methodologies
  249. 249. Observation 2 Outsourcing
  250. 250. Operations IT HR Marketing Sales Finance
  251. 251. Operations IT HR Marketing Sales Finance IT Activities
  252. 252. Operations IT HR Marketing Sales Finance IT Activities Marketing Activities
  253. 253. Operations IT HR Marketing Sales Finance Marketing Activities
  254. 254. Operations IT HR Marketing Sales Finance
  255. 255. Novel Low Commodity High Common
  256. 256. Innovation Novel Low Transition High Common
  257. 257. Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950) Creative Destruction
  258. 258. Operations IT HR Marketing Sales Finance
  259. 259. Observation 3 Vendors
  260. 260. Novel Low High Common Competitive Advantage Exclusive High ValueCustomer perception
  261. 261. Novel Low High Common Product Wealth of information Low cost to produce Many consumers
  262. 262. Novel Low High Common Product Customer perception
  263. 263. Novel Low High Common Perception gap
  264. 264. Novel Low High Common Branding
  265. 265. Observation 4 Organisation
  266. 266. Operations IT HR Marketing Sales Finance
  267. 267. Novel Low Commodity High Common
  268. 268. Operations IT HR Marketing Sales Finance Six sigma
  269. 269. Novel Low High Common
  270. 270. Operations IT HR Marketing Sales Finance IT Activities Marketing Activities
  271. 271. Novel Low High Common Innovation CommodityTransition
  272. 272. Collective Intelligence Knowledge Capture Participation Architectures Social Networks Mass Collaboration Wikis Aggregation
  273. 273. Enterprise 2.0
  274. 274. Novel Low High Common
  275. 275. The system must be able to equal the number of states in the input with at least an equivalent number of states in the regulatory process Ashby’s Law Requisite Variety
  276. 276. Novel Low High Common Defined
  277. 277. Survival requires ‘coherence, coordination and stability’. Innovation requires the replacement of these erstwhile virtues. Salaman & Storey Innovation Paradox
  278. 278. Observation 5 Order and Disorder
  279. 279. Novel Low High Common Maintain office facilities Set budgets Manage payroll Recruit staff Capture customer request for service Capture product predictions from information market Audit site useability Maintain corporate wiki Maintain search rank listing
  280. 280. Novel Low High Common Maintain office facilities Set budgets Manage payroll Recruit staff Capture customer request for service Capture product predictions from information market Audit site useability Maintain corporate wiki Maintain search rank listing
  281. 281. New Thing Products Common Utility Leading Edge New PRESSURE
  282. 282. Professor Leigh M. Van Valen Red Queen Hypothesis
  283. 283. Adapt to survive today.
  284. 284. Adapt to survive today. Innovate to survive tomorrow.
  285. 285. http://www.flickr.com/photos/sheds/709701976/
  286. 286. De Architectura Marcus Vitruvius Pollio (80-25 BC) http://www.bl.uk/popups/science14-pop.html
  287. 287. Herbert A. Simon 1916-2001 Theory of Hiearchy
  288. 288. Competitive
  289. 289. Competitive Cost of Doing Business
  290. 290. Competitive Cost of Doing Business Novel Low Commodity High Common
  291. 291. Competitive Cost of Doing Business App External Internal External App App Internal External Enterprise Service Bus Infrastructure
  292. 292. Competitive Cost of Doing Business Novel Low High Common Innovation
  293. 293. Survival requires ‘coherence, coordination and stability’. Innovation requires the replacement of these erstwhile virtues. Salaman & Storey Innovation Paradox
  294. 294. http://www.flickr.com/photos/inkytwist/364224409/
  295. 295. Yesterday’s hot stuff Today’s boredom
  296. 296. Nick Carr As IT becomes ubiquitous ... it has no strategic value
  297. 297. New Thing Products Common Utility Leading Edge New PRESSURE Hardware Software Framework
  298. 298. App External Internal External App App Internal External Enterprise Service Bus Infrastructure
  299. 299. Service Service Service Innovations
  300. 300. Idea Invention Discovery CommonInnovation
  301. 301. Idea Invention Discovery CommonInnovation
  302. 302. Novel Low High Common Innovation Commodity
  303. 303. Novel Low High Common Different Methodologies
  304. 304. Innovation Novel Low Transition High Common
  305. 305. Novel Low High Common Perception gap
  306. 306. Novel Low High Common Defined
  307. 307. Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950) Creative Destruction
  308. 308. Adapt to survive today. Innovate to survive tomorrow.
  309. 309. Survival requires ‘coherence, coordination and stability’. Innovation requires the replacement of these erstwhile virtues. Salaman & Storey Innovation Paradox
  310. 310. Commoditisation Impact Innovation Why nothing is simple Predictions
  311. 311. DANGER! Will Robinson DANGER!
  312. 312. Practical Steps
  313. 313. Low High Certainty Innovation First Mover Transitional CommodityNovelCommon Ubiquity
  314. 314. Low High Certainty Transitional CommodityNovelCommon Ubiquity
  315. 315. Low High Certainty Innovation First Mover NovelCommon Ubiquity
  316. 316. Uncertain & Risky Investment strategy Potential CA Deviation is necessary Unknown market / effect You’re on your own +ve -ve Time Low HighCertainty NovelCommonUbiquity Effect Innovation
  317. 317. +ve -ve Time Low HighCertainty NovelCommonUbiquity Effect First Mover Prediction is possible ROI strategy Actual CA Customisation focus Estimate market / effect Some competition
  318. 318. +ve -ve Time Low HighCertainty NovelCommonUbiquity Effect Transition Whitepapers / Conferences ROI strategy Declining CA Standardisation focus Early KPIs Many competitors
  319. 319. +ve -ve Time Low HighCertainty NovelCommonUbiquity Effect Commodity Best practices etc. Cost focus Cost of doing business Defined processes KPI driven Consolidation / outsourcing
  320. 320. Low High Certainty Pioneer Colonist Town PlannerNovelCommon Ubiquity
  321. 321. Map your business Be aware of lifecycle Think componentisation Think organisation
  322. 322. Novel Low High Common Defined
  323. 323. Commoditisation Impact Innovation Why nothing is simple Predictions
  324. 324. De Architectura Marcus Vitruvius Pollio (80-25 BC) http://www.bl.uk/popups/science14-pop.html
  325. 325. Novel Low Commodity High Common
  326. 326. New Thing Products Common Utility Leading Edge New PRESSURE Hardware Software Framework
  327. 327. App External Internal External App App Internal External Enterprise Service Bus Infrastructure
  328. 328. Service Service Service Innovations
  329. 329. Idea Invention Discovery CommonInnovation
  330. 330. 1. An increase in the rate at which innovative services and products are released to the web.
  331. 331. New Thing Products Common Utility Leading Edge New PRESSURE Hardware Software Framework
  332. 332. New Thing Products Common Utility Leading Edge New Hardware Software Framework NON STRATEGIC COST
  333. 333. Barrier to Participation Non-Strategic CODB Competitive Advantage
  334. 334. 2. More disruption in the information markets.
  335. 335. New Thing Products Common Utility Leading Edge New PRESSURE Hardware Software Framework
  336. 336. De Architectura Marcus Vitruvius Pollio (80-25 BC) http://www.bl.uk/popups/science14-pop.html
  337. 337. Novel Low High Common
  338. 338. Novel Low High Common Defined
  339. 339. Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950) Creative Destruction
  340. 340. Survival requires ‘coherence, coordination and stability’. Innovation requires the replacement of these erstwhile virtues. Salaman & Storey Innovation Paradox
  341. 341. 3. Increasing organisational pressure within IT.
  342. 342. App External Internal External App App Internal External Enterprise Service Bus Infrastructure
  343. 343. Novel Low High Common Maintain office facilities Set budgets Manage payroll Recruit staff Capture customer request for service Capture product predictions from information market Audit site useability Maintain corporate wiki Maintain search rank listing
  344. 344. Novel Low High Common Innovation Commodity
  345. 345. Novel Low High Common Branding
  346. 346. 4.The architecture will never be completed.
  347. 347. 1. Faster, Faster.
  348. 348. 2. More disruption. 1. Faster, Faster.
  349. 349. 3. Increasing pressure. 2. More disruption. 1. Faster, Faster.
  350. 350. 4. Never completed. 3. Increasing pressure. 2. More disruption. 1. Faster, Faster.
  351. 351. Infamy, Infamy ...
  352. 352. Thank you swardley@mac.com http://blog.gardeviance.org
  353. 353. swardley@mac.com http://blog.gardeviance.org For Hire! Events & Consultancy Interim Exec. Advisory Board. + ...
  354. 354. swardley@mac.com http://blog.gardeviance.org Sponsor! Your company XTECH Web 2.0 Strategy + many more ...

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  • bunkertor

    Mar. 14, 2015
  • mike.peleah

    Feb. 21, 2017
  • xyzam

    Feb. 24, 2019

Web Strategy Conference (April, 2008) covering evolution

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