This session is part of the Clean Energy Regulators Initiative Webinar Programme. Theme 7 - Promotion of renewable energy technologies Module 1: Setting renewable energy targets Renewable energy (RE) targets are now found in over 160 countries around the world, making them a defining feature of the global energy landscape. However, the function, design, and overall impacts of RE targets remain poorly understood. While RE targets are undoubtedly important in providing a clear signal to investors, and in mobilizing investment, the majority of RE targets around the world remain voluntary, with little monitoring or enforcement to ensure that countries remain on track. This webinar will attempt to shed light on these and other aspects of renewable energy targets, while outlining how policymakers can ensure that their targets are met on time, and on budget.

1. Renewable Energy
Target Setting
Leonardo Energy Webinar
September 29 2015

2. About the Authors
Ghislaine Kieffer Toby D. Couture
Founder and Director of E3
Analytics, an independent
renewable energy consultancy
based in Berlin, Germany.
He works on a wide range of
topics in renewable energy,
including policy, strategy, new
business models, as well as
economic and financial
analysis. He has advised
government policymakers and
senior decision makers in over
forty countries around the
world.
www.e3analytics.eu
Joined IRENA in November 2011,
where she is currently working in
the Policy Unit on a range of policy
and regional analyses.
Prior to this, she was managing the
Latin America Programme at the
International Energy Agency (IEA),
and previously worked as an
operations analyst at the World
Bank. Her work focuses on the
interplay between energy and
sustainability, both from the
perspective of global agenda-
setting and country-specific policy-
making.
www.irena.org

3. The foundations of targets
• Means or end?
• Management by Objectives
• New Public Management
• Global economic/development policy
• SMART and motivating
Targets can represent and/or support overall goals and a hierarchy of
objectives by providing a sense of purpose and direction
for a particular sector.
3

4. Targets in the global
renewable energy landscape – 2005
In 2005, 43 countries had renewable energy targets – mostly OECD countries
4

5. Targets in the global
renewable energy landscape – 2015
Today, 164 countries have at least one type of renewable energy target
– including 131 targets in emerging and developing countries
5

6. Evolution of global RE targets
by sector – 2005-2015
While renewable electricity targets are the most widespread type,
heating/cooling and transport sector targets have increased
significantly over the last decade 6

7. What are
“renewable energy targets”?
The great diversity of renewable energy targets calls for
definition and context
Renewable energy targets are numerical goals established by governments to achieve
a specific amount of renewable energy production or consumption.
7

8. In Focus:
Renewable electricity targets
8

9. In Focus:
Progress toward RE targets
9

10. Key functions of RE targets
throughout the policy-making cycle
1. RE targets in the policy formulation stage
• Develop the information base by gathering key data
• Complement/validate information through consultation
• Reveal gaps in knowledge
• Increase the transparency of policy making
• Stimulate debate, raises awareness and acceptance
10

11. Consultation enhances transparency&
feasibility of targets: South Africa’s IRP
11
Source: Modise, 2013.
Before consultation process After consultation process

12. Key functions of RE targets
throughout the policy-making cycle
2. RE targets in the policy implementation stage
• Improve planning
• Provide clear direction of policy to stakeholders
• Signal political commitment
• Encourage alignment of public policies
• Motivate stakeholders to take action
• Anchor strategic priorities and scenarios
• Foster accountability
12

13. Targets indicate policy direction
and potential market size: India
13
Source: CEEW, 2014
Note: CAGR - Compound annual growth rate
India scales up its solar targets from 22 GW to 100 GW

14. Key functions of RE targets
throughout the policy-making cycle
3. RE targets in the policy evaluation stage
• Supply concrete milestones for evaluation and adjustments
• Show deficiencies in current operations
• Provide opportunities to take action to correct deviations
• Expose data needs and discrepancies
14

15. Monitoring renewable energy
targets in EU Member States
15
Share of renewables in gross final energy consumption
in 2005, 2012 and 2020 target
Source: IEA, 2014

16. 16
Monitoring renewable energy
targets at the EU level
Source: Fraunhofer ISI based on Eurostat and NREAPs.

17. Designing RE targets
The design of RE targets varies widely:
 Technology-neutral vs. technology-specific
 Total final energy consumption (TFEC) vs. Total primary energy supply (TPES)
 Share of energy demand (%) or a fixed amount (e.g. ‘x’ GWh, PJs)
 By Sector: Electricity, Heating, Transport
17

18. Designing RE targets
18

19. Designing RE targets
Targets also differ widely in their overall structure:
 Long-term vs. Short-term
 Mandatory vs. Aspirational
In order to translate into measurable change, RE targets need to be backed by specific
policies and measures
19

20. Key findings
 Governments increasingly recognise the benefits of a portfolio approach to
renewable energy deployment – technology-specific targets are now predominant
 When determining the metrics for RE targets, simple distinctions such as TPES vs.
TFEC, or output (GWh) vs. percentages (%) matter and can have important
implications for monitoring, reporting, and enforcement
 The time horizon of targets increasingly combines a long-term vision (e.g. 2030, 2050)
anchored in short-term milestones to track progress (2017, 2018, etc.)
 Making targets mandatory matters – the track record of binding RE targets is quite
strong, while that of aspirational targets is comparatively weak. The majority of
targets to date are non-binding
20

21.  Effective targets are connected to high-level national priorities, are backed
by strong political commitment, and are binding in character
 Stakeholder engagement strengthens the credibility and feasibility of targets
 Making targets mandatory matters
 Who is obligated and how also matter
 Striking the right balance between ambition and realism is key
 Targets alone are not enough: to be effective, they need to be backed by
specific policies and measures
Key lessons for setting
effective RE targets
21

22.  Aspirational targets are unlikely to trigger meaningful change
 To be effective, targets have to be credible, and binding
 Who is obligated, and the legal basis of that obligation, matters (e.g. is it utilities,
large final emitters, resource industries, and is the obligation legally enforceable?)
 Targets are fundamentally about shaping investor/stakeholder expectations
 Targets need to be backed by specific policies and measures
Potential insights for
climate targets
22

23. Questions?
Download the full report here:
http://www.irena.org/DocumentDownloads/Publication
s/IRENA_RE_Target_Setting_2015.pdf