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Commodity Insight
28th October, 2013

Commodity

Exchange

Turnover (Cr.)

MCX

20631

NCDEX

3625

Rate

Rate

Gold
Silver
Crude
USDINR

Turnover of 25.10.13

28.10.13
1351.10 $
22.56 $
97.72 $
61.44

25.10.13
1351.90 $
22.54 $
97.87 $
61.55

Up / Down
- 00.80 $
00.02 $
- 00.15 $
- 00.11

Natural Gas
Fundamentally, Natural Gas future for October
delivery on India’s Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX)
is trading in sideways range from last four weeks that
is between 215 on lower side and 238 Rs./mmBtu on
higher side. In NYMEX Natural Gas is trading around
$3.60 levels after testing high of $3.86 last week. The
U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its
weekly report earlier that natural gas storage in the
U.S. in the week ended Oct. 11 rose by 77 billion
cubic feet, just below bearish forecasts for an
increase of 80 billion cubic feet. Inventories
increased by 54 billion cubic feet in the same week a
year earlier, while the five-year average change for
the week is a build of 75 billion cubic feet. Total U.S.
natural gas storage stood at 3.654 trillion cubic feet
as of October 11. The recent government shutdown
disrupted publication of data this month. Mild weather
in the U.S. during autumn tends to prompt
businesses and homes to throttle back on air
conditioning or heating, which cuts into demand for
natural gas at the country's thermal power plants.
Technically, Natural gas prices has been moving up from past few months, we have seen prices moving up
from low of Rs.192 to a recent high of Rs.257.10 i.e. a return of approx 30%. Looking at the trend it
seems, that the upside momentum will continue in near future. So for short term one can initiate long
position in Natural Gas for the targets of Rs.245.
In Long term, i.e. for next two months we expect Natural Gas prices to move up and touch levels of
Rs.300. So anytime dips in prices till Rs.215 or Rs.205 should be used as buying opportunity for the target
of Rs.260 and if prices are able to break and give close above Rs.260 than further bullishness in prices
can be seen till Rs.300. We continue to hold our bullish view in Natural Gas for next few months.

Soybean
Fundamentally Indian soybean futures is trading in narrow range of Rs.230 from last four weeks that is between
3660 per 100 Kg on higher and 3430 on lower side. The early onset of the monsoon this year had initially led to
expectations of an early harvest, but the recent late rains in parts of central India have dampened these hopes.
Good demand in spot markets and as late monsoon rains over the growing areas of central India raised
concerns over the quality of the crop. Heavy rainfall in Madhya Pradesh, largest producer of soybean in country,
in the last few days can deteriorate quality of the crop that is ready for harvesting and supplies in spot market
may also get delayed.
India could export as much as 5 million tonnes of Soymeal in the year from Oct. 1, 2013, a rise of about 25
percent on the previous year, as Asia's top exporter of the animal feed finds strong demand from Iran and
Thailand.

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Commodity Insight
28th October, 2013

Technically, Soybean has given good upside
move of Rs.400 in last few months we have seen
prices moving up from Rs.3350 to Rs.3824 i.e. a
upside move of more than 15%. As the upside
was sharp so there should be some consolidation
or correction in prices from present levels but the
overall view remains positive. So for short term
dips in prices till Rs.3650 or Rs.3600 should be
used as buying opportunity for the target of Rs.
4000.
For long term, i.e. for next two months, Soybean is
expected to move up and touch levels of Rs.
4500. So in short term if there is any correction in
prices till Rs.3600, than it should be used as
buying opportunity for the upside target of
Rs.4200 and Rs.4500. We maintain our bullish
view in Soybean for next two months.

Natural Gas Chart

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Commodity Insight
28th October, 2013

Natural Gas Trading Range


Natural Gas today’s trading levels 220-227



Intraday Support @ 220-224 and Resistance @ 226-227



Intraday Trend Down, Sell on rise....…



Sell Natural Gas @ 224 SL 227 TGT 220….

Open Calls

Date

Type
of
Call

Commodity

Initiated Price

Stop
Loss

Target

28.10.13

Buy

Copper Mini

447

443

452

28.10.13

Buy

Zinc Mini

118.75

117.5

120.25

28.10.13

Buy

Lead Mini

135.2

134.2

136.3

28.10.13

Sell

Gold Mini

31330

31500

31000

Closing
Price

Comments

Spread Calls

Date

Type
of Call

Initiated
Price

Commodity

Stop
Loss
Spread

Target
Spread

Comments

Report by: Sumeet Bagadia

(Head - Commodities & Currencies Research)

sumeet.bagadia@destimoney.com

Yogesh Khatri

(Senior Research Analyst)

yogesh.khatri@destimoney.com

Kunal Kame

(Research Associate)

kunal.kame@destimoney.com

Madhav Bana

(Research Associate)

madhav.bana@destimoney.com

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Commodity Insight
28th October, 2013

For private circulation only

Website: www.destimoney.com

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Disclaimer
In the preparation of the material contained in this document, Destimoney* has used information that is publicly
available, as also data developed in-house. Some of the material used in the document may have been
obtained from members/persons other than Destimoney and which may have been made available to
Destimoney. Information gathered & material used in this document is believed to be from reliable sources.
Destimoney has not independently verified all the information and opinions given in this material. Accordingly,
no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, authenticity, completeness or
fairness of the information and opinions contained in this material. For data reference to any third party in this
material no such party will assume any liability for the same. Destimoney does not in any way through this
material solicit or offer for purchase or sale of any financial services, commodities, products dealt in this
material. Destimoney and any of its officers, directors, personnel and employees, shall not be liable for any loss
or damage of any nature, including but not limited to direct, indirect, punitive, special, exemplary, consequential,
as also any loss of profit in any way arising from the use of this material in any manner. The recipient alone
shall be fully responsible, and/or liable for any decision taken on the basis of this material. All recipients of this
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Names such as Teji Mandi, Maal Lav, Maal Le or similar others for market calls and products are merely names
coined internally and are not universally defined, and shall not be construed to be indicative of past or potential
performance. Recipients of research reports shall always independently verify reliability and suitability of the
reports and opinions before investing.
*"Destimoney" means any company using the name “Destimoney” as part of its name.

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Commodity Insight 28.10.13(NG,Soybean)

  • 1. Commodity Insight 28th October, 2013 Commodity Exchange Turnover (Cr.) MCX 20631 NCDEX 3625 Rate Rate Gold Silver Crude USDINR Turnover of 25.10.13 28.10.13 1351.10 $ 22.56 $ 97.72 $ 61.44 25.10.13 1351.90 $ 22.54 $ 97.87 $ 61.55 Up / Down - 00.80 $ 00.02 $ - 00.15 $ - 00.11 Natural Gas Fundamentally, Natural Gas future for October delivery on India’s Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) is trading in sideways range from last four weeks that is between 215 on lower side and 238 Rs./mmBtu on higher side. In NYMEX Natural Gas is trading around $3.60 levels after testing high of $3.86 last week. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report earlier that natural gas storage in the U.S. in the week ended Oct. 11 rose by 77 billion cubic feet, just below bearish forecasts for an increase of 80 billion cubic feet. Inventories increased by 54 billion cubic feet in the same week a year earlier, while the five-year average change for the week is a build of 75 billion cubic feet. Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 3.654 trillion cubic feet as of October 11. The recent government shutdown disrupted publication of data this month. Mild weather in the U.S. during autumn tends to prompt businesses and homes to throttle back on air conditioning or heating, which cuts into demand for natural gas at the country's thermal power plants. Technically, Natural gas prices has been moving up from past few months, we have seen prices moving up from low of Rs.192 to a recent high of Rs.257.10 i.e. a return of approx 30%. Looking at the trend it seems, that the upside momentum will continue in near future. So for short term one can initiate long position in Natural Gas for the targets of Rs.245. In Long term, i.e. for next two months we expect Natural Gas prices to move up and touch levels of Rs.300. So anytime dips in prices till Rs.215 or Rs.205 should be used as buying opportunity for the target of Rs.260 and if prices are able to break and give close above Rs.260 than further bullishness in prices can be seen till Rs.300. We continue to hold our bullish view in Natural Gas for next few months. Soybean Fundamentally Indian soybean futures is trading in narrow range of Rs.230 from last four weeks that is between 3660 per 100 Kg on higher and 3430 on lower side. The early onset of the monsoon this year had initially led to expectations of an early harvest, but the recent late rains in parts of central India have dampened these hopes. Good demand in spot markets and as late monsoon rains over the growing areas of central India raised concerns over the quality of the crop. Heavy rainfall in Madhya Pradesh, largest producer of soybean in country, in the last few days can deteriorate quality of the crop that is ready for harvesting and supplies in spot market may also get delayed. India could export as much as 5 million tonnes of Soymeal in the year from Oct. 1, 2013, a rise of about 25 percent on the previous year, as Asia's top exporter of the animal feed finds strong demand from Iran and Thailand. • Equities • Commodities • Wealth • Mutual Funds • Insurance 1
  • 2. Commodity Insight 28th October, 2013 Technically, Soybean has given good upside move of Rs.400 in last few months we have seen prices moving up from Rs.3350 to Rs.3824 i.e. a upside move of more than 15%. As the upside was sharp so there should be some consolidation or correction in prices from present levels but the overall view remains positive. So for short term dips in prices till Rs.3650 or Rs.3600 should be used as buying opportunity for the target of Rs. 4000. For long term, i.e. for next two months, Soybean is expected to move up and touch levels of Rs. 4500. So in short term if there is any correction in prices till Rs.3600, than it should be used as buying opportunity for the upside target of Rs.4200 and Rs.4500. We maintain our bullish view in Soybean for next two months. Natural Gas Chart • Equities • Commodities • Wealth • Mutual Funds • Insurance 2
  • 3. Commodity Insight 28th October, 2013 Natural Gas Trading Range  Natural Gas today’s trading levels 220-227  Intraday Support @ 220-224 and Resistance @ 226-227  Intraday Trend Down, Sell on rise....…  Sell Natural Gas @ 224 SL 227 TGT 220…. Open Calls Date Type of Call Commodity Initiated Price Stop Loss Target 28.10.13 Buy Copper Mini 447 443 452 28.10.13 Buy Zinc Mini 118.75 117.5 120.25 28.10.13 Buy Lead Mini 135.2 134.2 136.3 28.10.13 Sell Gold Mini 31330 31500 31000 Closing Price Comments Spread Calls Date Type of Call Initiated Price Commodity Stop Loss Spread Target Spread Comments Report by: Sumeet Bagadia (Head - Commodities & Currencies Research) sumeet.bagadia@destimoney.com Yogesh Khatri (Senior Research Analyst) yogesh.khatri@destimoney.com Kunal Kame (Research Associate) kunal.kame@destimoney.com Madhav Bana (Research Associate) madhav.bana@destimoney.com • Equities • Commodities • Wealth • Mutual Funds • Insurance 3
  • 4. Commodity Insight 28th October, 2013 For private circulation only Website: www.destimoney.com Follow Us On: http://www.facebook.com/pages/Destimoney/266287706777559 https://twitter.com/#!/DestimoneySecur Disclaimer In the preparation of the material contained in this document, Destimoney* has used information that is publicly available, as also data developed in-house. Some of the material used in the document may have been obtained from members/persons other than Destimoney and which may have been made available to Destimoney. Information gathered & material used in this document is believed to be from reliable sources. Destimoney has not independently verified all the information and opinions given in this material. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, authenticity, completeness or fairness of the information and opinions contained in this material. For data reference to any third party in this material no such party will assume any liability for the same. Destimoney does not in any way through this material solicit or offer for purchase or sale of any financial services, commodities, products dealt in this material. Destimoney and any of its officers, directors, personnel and employees, shall not be liable for any loss or damage of any nature, including but not limited to direct, indirect, punitive, special, exemplary, consequential, as also any loss of profit in any way arising from the use of this material in any manner. The recipient alone shall be fully responsible, and/or liable for any decision taken on the basis of this material. All recipients of this material before dealing and/or transacting in any of the products advised, opined or referred to in this material shall make their own investigation, seek appropriate professional advice and make their own independent decision. This information is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subject Destimoney or its affiliates to any registration requirement within such jurisdiction or country. This information does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any financial products to any person in any jurisdiction where it is unlawful to make such an offer or solicitation. No part of this material may be duplicated in whole or in part in any form and / or redistributed without the prior written consent of Destimoney. This material is strictly confidential to the recipient and should not be reproduced or disseminated to anyone else. Names such as Teji Mandi, Maal Lav, Maal Le or similar others for market calls and products are merely names coined internally and are not universally defined, and shall not be construed to be indicative of past or potential performance. Recipients of research reports shall always independently verify reliability and suitability of the reports and opinions before investing. *"Destimoney" means any company using the name “Destimoney” as part of its name. • Equities • Commodities • Wealth • Mutual Funds • Insurance 4