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World Energy Outlook 2012
Ambassador Richard H. Jones
Deputy Executive Director
International Student Energy Summit
Trondheim, 13 June 2013

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The context
 Foundations of global energy system shifting
 Resurgence in oil & gas production in some countries
 Retreat from nuclear in some others
 Signs of increasing policy focus on energy efficiency
 All-time high oil prices acting as brake on global economy
 Divergence in natural gas prices affecting Europe (with prices
5-times US levels) and Asia (8-times)
 Symptoms of an unsustainable energy system persist
 Fossil fuel subsidies up almost 30% to $523 billion in 2011, led by MENA
 CO2 emissions at record high, while renewables industry under strain
 Despite new international efforts, 1.3 billion people still lack electricity

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Emerging economies steer energy markets
Share of global energy demand
Global energy demand rises by over one-third in the period to 2035,
underpinned by rising living standards in China, India & the Middle East
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1975 2010 2035
Middle East
India
China
OECD
Non-OECDRest of non-OECD
6 030 Mtoe 12 380 Mtoe 16 730 Mtoe

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A United States oil & gas transformation
US oil and gas production
The surge in unconventional oil & gas production has implications
well beyond the United States
Unconventional gas
Conventional gas
Unconventional oil
Conventional oil
mboe/d
5
10
15
20
25
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2035

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Natural gas: towards a globalised market
Major global gas trade flows, 2010
Rising supplies of unconventional gas & LNG help to diversify trade flows,
putting pressure on conventional gas suppliers & oil-linked pricing mechanisms
Major global gas trade flows, 2035

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Different trends in oil & gas
import dependency
While dependence on imported oil & gas rises in many countries,
Net oil & gas import dependency in selected countries
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Oil imports
Gas Imports
United States
China
India
European Union
Japan
2010
2035
20%Gas Exports
the United States swims against the tide

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3 000 4 000 5 000 6 000
TWh
2 000
A power shift to emerging economies
The need for electricity in emerging economies drives a 70% increase in worldwide
demand, with renewables accounting for half of new global capacity
Change in power generation, 2010-2035
-1 000 0 1 000
Japan
European Union
United States
China
TWh
Coal Gas Nuclear Renewables
India

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The multiple benefits of renewables
come at a cost
Renewable subsidies were $88 billion in 2011; over half the $4.8 trillion required to
2035 has been committed to existing projects or is needed to meet 2020 targets
Global renewable energy subsidies
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Billion
2012-2035
$960 billion
$2 600 billion
$1 200 billion
Existing
commitments
Electricity:
2011-2035
Biofuels:

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2010
Energy is becoming thirstier in the
face of growing water constraints
The energy sector’s water needs are set to grow, making water an increasingly
important criterion for assessing the viability of energy projects
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2010
Coal
Nuclear
Other
Energy
Biofuels
Fossil fuels
Power
Global water use Water for energy

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Energy efficiency: a huge opportunity
going unrealised
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Industry Transport Power
generation
Buildings
Unrealised energy
efficiency potential
Realised energy
efficiency potential
Two-thirds of the economic potential to improve energy efficiency
remains untapped in the period to 2035
Energy efficiency potential used by sector in the New Policies Scenario

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The Efficient World Scenario:
a blueprint for an efficient world
Economically viable efficiency measures can halve energy demand growth to 2035;
Total primary energy demand
12 000
13 000
14 000
15 000
16 000
17 000
18 000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Mtoe
New Policies
Scenario
Efficient
World Scenario
Reduction in 2035
Coal 1 350 Mtce
Oil 12.7 mb/d
Gas 680 bcm
Others 250 Mtoe
oil demand savings equal the current production of Russia & Norway

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Energy efficiency brings economic gains
In addition to cutting energy expenditures by an average of 20%, improved efficiency
brings wider economic gains, particularly for India, China, the United States & Europe
Energy expenditure in 2035 compared with 2010
Trillion
Efficient World
Scenario
New Policies
Scenario
Additional in the
New Policies
Scenario
-$0.3
$0
$0.3
$0.6
$0.9
$1.2
$1.5
China India European
Union
United
States
Japan

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Four measures to keep the
2 °C target alive
 National efforts in this decade need to buy time for an
international agreement, expected to come into force in 2020
 Our 4-for-2 °C Scenario includes four measures:
1. Implement selected energy efficiency policies
2. Limit use of inefficient coal power plants
3. Reduce methane releases from upstream oil & gas
4. Partially remove fossil-fuel subsidies
 The four measures meet key criteria:
 No harm to countries’ economic growth
 Reliance only on existing technologies and proven policies
 Significant national benefits other than climate change mitigation

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Key messages
 Changing outlook for energy production & use,
particularly in North America, may redefine global
economic & geopolitical balances
 Despite positive steps in some countries, global
emissions keep rising, with little time left until the
climate meeting in Paris 2015
 Policy makers face critical choices in reconciling energy,
environmental & economic objectives