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Arctic Climate Change
“The Arctic is warming at almost twice
the rate of the rest of the world”
Arctic influences weather and climate elsewhere
Svalbard
ISES 2013  - Day 1 - Dr. Jan-Gunnar Winther (Director, Worwegian Polar Institute) - Climate and Clean Energy Policy
ISES 2013  - Day 1 - Dr. Jan-Gunnar Winther (Director, Worwegian Polar Institute) - Climate and Clean Energy Policy
ISES 2013  - Day 1 - Dr. Jan-Gunnar Winther (Director, Worwegian Polar Institute) - Climate and Clean Energy Policy
IPCC 2007: ”Ice free” AO by the end of century
2012: 3.41 M km2
SWIPA 2011: likely within next 30-40 yrs
Six IPCC AR4 models closer to observations; Sea ice-free summers likely by 2050.
(Wang and Overland, 2009)
Maybe before?
Do we understand the processes?
Are global models good enough on a regional scale?
Large annual variability – influence from weather events
2012
ISES 2013  - Day 1 - Dr. Jan-Gunnar Winther (Director, Worwegian Polar Institute) - Climate and Clean Energy Policy
ISES 2013  - Day 1 - Dr. Jan-Gunnar Winther (Director, Worwegian Polar Institute) - Climate and Clean Energy Policy
ISES 2013  - Day 1 - Dr. Jan-Gunnar Winther (Director, Worwegian Polar Institute) - Climate and Clean Energy Policy
“Small” glaciers contribution to sea level
Arctic
ISES 2013  - Day 1 - Dr. Jan-Gunnar Winther (Director, Worwegian Polar Institute) - Climate and Clean Energy Policy
Sea level
AR5: Increased estimates
compared to AR4
Will continue for 1000+ yr
Global temp. of 3 °C may
destabilise the ice sheets
Antarctica’s response to climate change remains uncertain.
However, the ice sheet is more than 10 times larger in volume than
Greenland
Ocean temperature and salinity
74 000
+8500
• Fw export through
gateways ’constant’
• Precipitation and river
runoff increasing
• Sea ice melting
• An extra amount of 8500
km3
fw accumulated in the
Canadian Basin since 2008
• Still accumulating
• Will be released with
changing wind patterns
• If released rapid enough,
we could see an
unprecedented freshening of
the Northern North Atlantic
• The first challenge is to
capture the release
2500
3650
4000
Why impurities affect the snow albedo ?
Pure snow:
high albedo
Snow contaminated by
black carbon
(BC)
lower albedo
ISES 2013  - Day 1 - Dr. Jan-Gunnar Winther (Director, Worwegian Polar Institute) - Climate and Clean Energy Policy
ISES 2013  - Day 1 - Dr. Jan-Gunnar Winther (Director, Worwegian Polar Institute) - Climate and Clean Energy Policy
1991-2000
2056-2065
2090-2099
ISES 2013  - Day 1 - Dr. Jan-Gunnar Winther (Director, Worwegian Polar Institute) - Climate and Clean Energy Policy
Takk for oppmerksomheten!
Thank you for your attention!

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ISES 2013 - Day 1 - Dr. Jan-Gunnar Winther (Director, Worwegian Polar Institute) - Climate and Clean Energy Policy

Hinweis der Redaktion

  1. Main reason for discrepancy is that the thinning trend is not captured Two main causes: Do not reproduce the increased ocean heat flux (Polyakov et al (2011), Maslowski et al (2007)) Do not reproduce the accelerated ice drift (Rampal et al (2009), Rampal et al (2011)).