1. Whither Abenomics
Akio Fujii
January 30th, 2013

2. Abenomics
• It’ the Economy Stupid!!
until upper house election
・ What is Abenomics?
1. Aggressive Monetary Easing
2. Fiscal Stimulus
3. Growth Strategy
• Abenomics Bubble?
Nikkei Index, Yen
Biggest recovery since 2005 Election

3. Global Response
• “Japan Step Out” Paul Krugman
• “Right on Monetary Side, but…” Adam
Posen
• “The Wrong Growth Strategy for Japan”
Martin Feldstein
・Ｂｉｇ３ are nervous
・Ｇｅｒｍａｎ are nervous Melkel
・“We are still in a position where the yen is a
handicap,“ Ghosn

4. Upside Risk
• Business and Consumer already feel better.
• Virtuous cycle of reflation
Asset prices → Sentiment → Real demand
• Strong effect in F 2013
Fiscal Monetary Stimulus and rushing demand
before the consumption tax hike
• Global recovery US and China
• Japan-China, Japan-Korea, cooling tension
• Strong support for LDB in General Election
→ No PM Change since 2005

5. Downside Risk
• Burst of Abenomics Bubble
Disappointment on BOJ. Fiscal Concern.
・Yen bounce back
・Another political turmoil
・Global slowdown(or recession?)
・More tension on Japan-China, Japan-Korea
・No structural reform

6. Single Biggest Threat
“ the single, biggest threat to our national
security is our debt.” Mike Mullen, chairman of
the Joint Chiefs of Staff
→ The single, biggest threat to our national
security is our deflation?

7. Thank You !!