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PLANNING THE INTERNATIONAL
PROJECT IN TERMS OF TIME,
COST, AND QUALITY
Chapter 5
THE CHALLENGE OF PLANNING AN INTERNATIONAL
PROJECT
Why planning a project?
chaos.
Issues with planning in international project.
changing international environment.
predict.
ng than
for planning standard projects.
2
THE PLANNING PROCESS
The planning process can be divided into four major tasks:
1. Planning time.
2. Scheduling under resource constraints.
3. Planning cost.
4. Planning quality.
The objective of planning is to:
3
Required inputs:
1
3
2
4
Planning
Time
Scheduling
under
resource
constraints
Planning
Cost
Planning
Quality
Planning
Time, Cost,
Quality of the
International
Project
1. Work Breakdown Structure
2. Organizational Breakdown
Structure
3. Analysis of skill sets of
available staff beyond
academic and job titles (based
on CVs and interviews)
4. Overview of holiday
entitlements of international
staff in different locations
Main output: Gantt chart or network
diagram
Required tools and
techniques:
- Project Network Diagram,
mainly Activity on Arrow
(AoA)
as basis for CPM, CPA,
PERT, PDM etc.
- Gantt chart or bar chart
1. Project Scope Statement
2. Work Breakdown Structure
3. Estimates for activity duration
4. Establishment of relationships
between single activities in form of
precedence
5. Calendar with international holidays
relevant to the international project
Main output:
Resource loaded Gantt chart
Required tools and
techniques:
- Loaded Gantt chart
Required inputs:
1. Financial objective / available budget
2. Cost estimates
3. Overview of international locations
involved in the project
4. Overview of salaries, facilities,
equipment and other costs in the
relevant international locations
5. Cost for risk mitigation or contingency
plans (cf. Chapter 4)
6. Development of currency fluctuations
Required tools and techniques:
- Step counting cost-estimating techniques
- Exponential cost-estimating techniques
- Parametric cost-estimating techniques
- Even-loading, front-loading, back-loading budget
methods
- Periodic cost spreadsheet
- Cumulative cost spreadsheet
Required inputs:
Required inputs:
1. Project scope statement incl. cross-check of
customer’s expectation level
2. Cultural gap analysis regarding perception of quality
in involved countries and cultures
3. Functionality of product/service/project result
Not
discussed
in this book
Main output:
Budget spreadsheets
Required tools and techniques:
- Standard quality control techniques
- Pareto diagrams
- Checklists for partner selection
- Spider diagrams for training assessments
Main output:
Definition of quality known to all project
members
Water-tight specification sheets
Final output of cycle: project master
plan (additional input needed for master
plan: OBS/responsibility chart cf. Chapter
6)
Cf.
Chapter
6
Not discussed in this
book
Not
discussed
in this
book
4
CULTURAL IMPACT ON PLANNING
National culture determines the attitude of a project member
or stakeholder towards the effectiveness of planning.
It also has an influence on the detail level and structure of
the plans.
The attitude towards planning is influenced by the external
environment, e.g. frequency of natural disasters, reliability of
infrastructure.
The following two slides will use the cultural gap tool and
apply it to the area of project planning.
5
Project managers who are rather hierarchy-
oriented tend to create a plan on their own.
More equality-oriented PMs will tend to involve
their team.
Equality Hierarchy
Project managers and members who are
afraid of risk tend to put more effort on
planning details than risk embracing project
managers and teams.
Embracing
Risk
Avoiding
Risk
Project managers and other stakeholders with
a universal background tend to create a
Master Plan which is to be applied at all sites
and to situations. Circumstantial people tend
to stick to high-level planning with flexibility.
Universal
Circumstan-
tial
Project managers and other stakeholders who
are task-oriented tend to create Work
Breakdown Structures and to-do lists.
Relationship-oriented individuals tend to
spend much more time on networking with
main stakeholders than on creating a plan.
Task Relationship
CULTURAL GAP TOOL FOR PLANNING (1 )
6
Achievement
Standing /
Status
Project managers and members with a
sequential approach tend to follow the
planning process, with the creation of
estimates of time, cost, and links to resource
availability. People from synchronic cultures
may put less effort in sequencing.
Sequential Synchronic
Project managers and members who are more
oriented towards theory tend to attach more
importance and put more effort into planning.
People from pragmatic cultures may tend to
focus on learning by doing and spend less
time on the creation of plans.
Theoretical Pragmatic
Project managers who are more
achievement-oriented tend to ‘follow the
textbook’ in order to obtain the given targets.
Project managers and members with a
stronger status orientation might have a
separate agenda partially contradictory to the
project goal.
CULTURAL GAP TOOL FOR PLANNING (2)
7
SCHEDULING
Scheduling comprises of the following activities:
Breakdown Structure.
the sequence of these activities.
overall duration of the project.
Tools used for scheduling:
The prerequisite of scheduling is the assumption that time can
be measured, and duration needs to be minimized. This
prerequisite is not given in all local cultures.
8
Integration
start
0
Finalize
new
strategy
10
Decide on
new
processes
5
Test pilot
10
Roll out
new
processes
30
Integration
end
0
Build new
intranet
14
Feed with
new
processes
7
Identify key
users among
personnel
5
Language
trainings
15
General
process
trainings
8
9
Estimating activity durations in an activity on arrow network
diagram
Activity 1 Activity 2
Activity 1 Activity 2
Activity 1 Activity 2
10
After durations have been estimated, the logical
relation between activities needs to be determined.
Determining relations between activities
Activity Name
Earliest
Start Time
Latest
Start Time
Latest
Finish Time
Earliest
Finish Time
Float or Slack
Activity Duration
1 2
34 5
11
The structure of a node of a network diagram
Integration
start
0
Finalize
new
strategy
0
0 10
1010
-
Decide on
new
process
10
10 15
155
-
Test pilot
15
15 25
2510
-
Roll out
new
process
25
25 55
5530
-
Integration
end
55
55 55
550
Build new
intranet
0
4 18
1414
4
Feed with
new
processes
15
18 25
227
3
Identify key
personnel
0
27 32
155
17
Language
trainings
15
32 47
3015
17
General
process
trainings
30
47 55
388
17
12
The complete network diagram with duration, float, and
interdependencies
Factors
impacting
international
project
scheduling
Additional time for
coordination,
communication and
training
Additional time for
local adaptations (of
processes, products,
or services)
Additional time for
team building
activities
Consideration of
different public
holidays and
vacation time
Consideration of
different calendars
and auspicious days
13
Particularities of scheduling international
projects
ADDING RESOURCES TO SCHEDULING (1)
To finalize the scheduling activities, the project manager has to
take quantitative and qualitative aspects of resources into
account:
human resources need to be available to carry out the tasks
as depicted in the WBS.
international projects:
14
ADDING RESOURCES TO SCHEDULING (2)
Staff planning involves the following main activities:
am members are 100 per cent
dedicated to the project.
-commitment of
resources:
-schedule tasks.
-prioritize tasks.
15
Peak Units:
Calendar week
Calendar week
TL: Team leader
Over-allocated
resources
Allocated
resources
16
Example of resource-loaded Gantt chart
PLANNING COST
Purpose of cost planning:
realize the
project’s objective.
Cost planning activities:
where necessary.
Types of costs:
ct the budget is planned for.
such as general administrative costs.
17
EXAMPLES OF COST COMPONENTS
Labour
Materials
Plant and equipment
Travel and transportation
Subcontract
Training
Legal support
Investment cost
Rent
Overhead and administration
Fees and taxation
Inflation
Contingency (covers oversights or unknowns as a sort of buffer)
18
Simplified Cumulative Cost Spreadsheet: Production Transfer
from Europe to China
P = Plan
Total Budget € 1 million A = Actual
Cost
categories
Period to date in months
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Labour
P 20,000 45,000 75,000 115,000 200,000 260,000 330,000
410,000 480,000 550,000
A
Travel /
expenses
P 16,000 32,000 64,000 96,000 130,000 170,000 200,000
240,000 300,000 380,000
A
Others
(consulting,
supplier
dev.,
prototypes,
logistics
etc.)
P 0 3,000 7,000 14,000 20,000 28,000 35,000 43,000 61,000
70,000
A
Total 36,000 80,000 146,000 225,000 350,000 458,000 565,000
693,000 841,000 1,000,000
19
Example of budget for international project
PARTICULARITIES OF INTERNATIONAL PROJECTS
REGARDING COST
AND TIME ESTIMATES
Fluctuations of currency rates need to be closely monitored.
Travel expenses
international projects.
Selection of sites involved
additional
costs and delays.
afety. These
may incur additional costs, e.g. required translations of
documents.
20
PARTICULARITIES OF INTERNATIONAL PROJECTS
REGARDING
QUALITY PLANNING
There needs to be a common understanding about quality
among the major project stakeholders.
Never take things for granted
product/service is used?
Pay special attention to training needs and the selection of co-
operation partners.
21
IMPLEMENTING AND
CONTROLLING INTERNATIONAL
PROJECTS
Chapter 7
THE CHALLENGE OF IMPLEMENTING AND
CONTROLLING AN
INTERNATIONAL PROJECT
The efficiency and efficacy of the processes and activities in the
implementation phase highly depend on the quality of the output
of
the initiation and planning phases.
The main activities in the implementation phase follow the
Plan-Do-
Check-Act cycle:
based on the project master plan.
status
by implementing counter measures.
2
MONITORING AND CONTROLLING
Project monitoring refers to keeping track or checking a
situation
for a special purpose.
Project controlling entails an element of influence and exertion
of
power to rectify undesired situations:
bject of this chapter): Fact-based
controlling of
resources with tools and techniques.
-oriented
controlling, using stakeholder management, leadership,
motivation,
negotiation, conflict management.
The detailed inputs, and outputs of these activities will be
explained
on the following slide.
3
Required inputs:
Project Proposal and Project Master Plan , i.e.
Required tools and techniques:
1. Change orders
2. Change documentation supported by IT
3. Follow up of issue log in status
meetings
1
3
2
4
PLAN
DOCHECK
ACT
The
Monitoring
Cycle
1. Inadequate allowance for time in
planning phase
2. Inadequate specifications
3. Inadequate knowledge about customer’s
needs
4. Lack of discipline
5. Improvements due to technological
progress
6. Unforeseeable circumstances
1. Stakeholder Matrix
2. Cultural gap analysis
3. Diversity-Complexity Assessment
4. Project Scope Statement
5. Enhanced Risk Register
6. Resource loaded Gantt charts
7. Cumulative spread sheets
8. Quality plan incl. specs
9. Project structure
10. Contracts
Main output:
Data in form of nominal scale, interval scale, or descriptions
Required activities:
• Collection of hard data, mainly supported by IT
• Collection of soft data considering impact of cultural
diversity
Main reasons for variances:
1. Data in various forms
2. Observations
Required tools and
techniques:
1. Red/Amble/Green
2. Milestone Analysis
3. Critical Path
4. Earned Value Analysis
5. Balanced Score Card
Required inputs:
Required inputs:
1. Analysis of deviations or variances
2. Analysis of their root causes
Main output:
• Deviation analysis regarding time, cost, quality, scope,
satisfaction level
• Issue log
Required activities:
• Decision on countermeasures
• Claim management
• Change management
4
CULTURAL IMPACT ON PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION (1)
The application of the cultural gap analysis helps the project
manager selecting adequate controlling and monitoring
techniques.
It also raises his or her awareness regarding potential
behavioural
differences within the team in the implementation phase.
An important difference to keep in mind:
-oriented cultures, remote or virtual controlling
usually works.
-oriented cultures, personal controlling and
support is
difficult to replace by remote controlling techniques.
The following two slides give a systematic overview of
potential
behavioural differences among project members in the
execution
phase.
5
The higher the inclination to avoid risk, the more
likely it is that important decisions due to a changing
environment get delayed due to the fact that more
details are needed for decision making. If decisions
are avoided, plans cannot be modified, and
monitoring gets meaningless.
Embracing
risk
Avoiding risk
Data collection and reporting: persons from
individualistic cultures tend to feel more comfortable
responding to non-anonymous interviews or
questionnaires for data collection. They also tend to
feel more comfortable with measurement of their
personal performance compared to team members
from collectivistic cultures.
Individual Group
Individuals from rather circumstantial cultures might
feel that it does not make sense to monitor and
revise ‘old’ plans. They might feel that it is sufficient
to adapt to changes when they come, without
documenting deviations from the original plan.
Universal
Circumstan-
tial
CULTURAL IMPACT ON PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION (2)
6
Project managers from achievement-oriented
cultures may tend to invest some time in monitoring
on a regular basis in order to counteract quickly.
More status-oriented project managers might spend
their time on presumably more rewarding activities
like politics or building networks.
Achievement
Standing /
status
Prioritization of tasks under time constraints might be
difficult for individuals from synchronic cultures.
Sequential Synchronic
Individuals from more pragmatic-orientated cultures
may prefer quick action and countermeasures over
thorough analysis of the cause of deviations from the
plan.
Theoretical Pragmatic
Task Relationship
Individuals from relationship-oriented cultures could
have difficulties in reporting issues or anything bad
in order not to ruin the relationship to the person
they are reporting to.
They may also need more direct physical follow-up
in terms of encouragement rather than virtual status
meetings.
CULTURAL IMPACT ON PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION (3)
7
MONITORING TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES
Project monitoring:
oject information:
Pre-requisite:
Performance Indicators
(KPI).
Areas to be monitored:
rable quality.
clarity of goals,
establishment of clear communication, adequate project team
capabilities, project
culture.
8
PARTICULARITIES OF MONITORING INTERNATIONAL
PROJECTS
to be more complex than monitoring standard projects.
that may
be culturally impacted.
project, but
also outside of the project.
helps with
this task.
9
10
Internal
Completion
1. Resources: time, cost
2. Productivity of human resources
(due to cultural diversity)
3. Quality
4. Scope
5. Delays of input from other projects
6. Support level from HQ/top
management
7. Efficiency and consistency of
business processes across locations
1. Executive management
2. Steering committee
3. Line managers
4. Heads of subsidiaries
5. Project team members
6. Users within organization
1. Customer
2. Suppliers
3. Subcontractors
4. Consultants
5. (International) users outside of
organization
1. Economic situation of the countries
the project operates in
2. Government regulations and
approvals (changes, delays)
3. Natural disasters or untypical
weather change
4. Technological problems like power
outages
More details see Chapter 4
Satisfaction
External
Monitor matrix for international projects
CONTROLLING TECHNIQUES (1)
Low tech controlling tools:
effectiveness depends on underlying criteria (see example on
next slide).
-explanatory colour coding very suitable for
international projects.
-defined
milestones.
-building events.
11
Criteria for project status
light setting
Profitability
R&D costs
Milestone review
Specific project risks
Project resources
Red, if any of the criteria
is red.
Total project traffic
light status
Yellow, if any of the
criteria is yellow.
Green, if all criteria is
green.
EXAMPLE OF TRAFFIC LIGHT TOOL
12
CONTROLLING TECHNIQUES (2)
More complicated controlling tools:
and project performance.
-lasting, complex, international
projects.
accomplished at a certain point in time based upon the planned
or budgeted value for the work.
areas like customer’s satisfaction, internal business processes,
and
learning and growth need to be monitored.
13
Time
C
o
s
t
in
T
€
36
80
146
225
350
458
565
693
841
1.000
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1.000
1.100
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
Planned cost in relation to
schedule
14
Example of EVA Calculation (1)
Time
C
o
s
t
in
T
€
36
80
146
225
350
458
565
693
841
1.000
36
80
160
240
390
503
610
748
900
1.059
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1.000
1.100
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
Planned
Actual
15
Example of EVA Calculation (2)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Apr May Jun
AC = 503
Time
C
o
s
t
in
T
€
PC = 458
SVm
SV = 54
CV = -99
EV = 404
16
Example of EVA Calculation (3)
MANAGING PLANNED AND UNPLANNED CHANGE
Detect variations from the plan:
monitoring
matrix).
(see next
slide).
the issue
until completion.
Central version control:
administered
by a central database.
Claim management is a special form of change management.
17
Issue Log
No. Date Description
Impact (in terms
of project
completion)
Suggested
solution
Responsible
person
Date of
comple-
tion
18
Example of issue log
LEADING INTERNATIONAL
PROJECTS
Chapter 8
LEADING INTERNATIONAL PROJECTS
Leading international projects means spanning cultural,
organizational, geographical, and time boundaries.
Indirect and virtual leadership skills play an important role.
The international project manager has to lead heterogeneous
stakeholders in a sensitive and creative way.
Leading international projects means influencing, motivating,
and
enabling project members from different national cultures.
2
Context of
leading
international
projects
Geogra-
phic
dispersion
Temporal
dispersion
Cultural
dispersion
Organiza-
tional
dispersion
3
Challenges of leading international projects
LEADERSHIP AND CULTURE
According to the GLOBE study, leadership styles and leadership
preferences of each national culture vary.
Depending on the national culture of leader and followers,
different
leadership styles are effective.
The international project manager needs to adapt his or her
leadership style accordingly.
4
Leaders from hierarchy cultures tend to act
like a benevolent autocrat with absolute
authority and decision making power. Leaders
from equality-oriented cultures may prefer a
participative leadership style with shared
responsibilities including the staff into the
decision making process.
Equality Hierarchy
Leaders from collectivist cultures tend to
prefer a patriarchic leadership style giving
their subordinates the feeling of (emotional)
security.
Incentives would be rather team or group-
oriented than given to single individuals.
Leaders from individualistic cultures tend to
assume the role of a coach developing their
subordinates. They tend to take decisions
based on facts collected from the whole team.
Leaders from group-oriented cultures tend to
take decisions based on opinions of major
stakeholders.
Individual Group
CULTURAL IMPACT OF CULTURE ON LEADING
INTERNATIONAL
PROJECTS
5
For leaders from task-oriented cultures, the
project team is only a temporary organization to
accomplish the project task. For leaders from
relationship-oriented cultures, good morale and
close relationships in the project team are the
sine-qua-non for task accomplishment and hence
relationships in the team are more important.
They may also support their subordinates on
private issues.
Task Relationship
Leaders from achievement-oriented cultures tend to
measure themselves and their followers by the
accomplishment of objectives. A preferred leadership
style would be management by objectives.
Leaders from status-oriented cultures tend to focus
on networking with politically important players in
order to safeguard their status and tend to manage
subjectively.
Achievement
Standing /
Status
Leaders from conflict-oriented cultures tend to
initiate open discussions on issues when
providing feedback. They use brainstorming
sessions for constructive conflict resolution.
Leaders from consensus-oriented cultures tend to
build up networks and use them to reach
compromises. They may tend to provide indirect
feedback to give face.
Conflict Consensus
CULTURAL IMPACT OF CULTURE ON LEADING
INTERNATIONAL PROJECTS
6
NATIONAL CULTURE, ORGANIZATIONAL CULTURE, AND
MOTIVATION
Motivation is a crucial component of leadership.
Motivation highly depends on individual preferences.
Organizational culture plays an important role regarding
motivation, reflected in available HR systems.
Maslow’s hierarchy of needs (see next slide) provide the project
manager with a rough orientation regarding motivational
preferences allocated to national cultures.
7
Safety Needs
Culture influences: Uncertainty Avoidance
Physiological Needs
Social Needs
Culture influences: Femininity,
Individualism / Collectivism
Esteem Needs
Self-
Actualization
Culture influences: Power Distance
Culture influences:
Individualism Collectivism
8
National culture and motivation
DIFFERENT LEADERSHIP STYLES BASED ON GLOBE
STUDY
Charismatic / Value-based leadership.
Team-oriented leadership.
Participative leadership.
Humane-oriented leadership.
Autonomous leadership.
Self-protective leadership.
An international leader has to be able to switch between the
styles.
Charismatic / Value-based leadership style is most
appropriate for leading across geographical boundaries.
9
COMPETENCIES FOR LEADING INTERNATIONAL
PROJECTS
Competencies are consistent ways of behaving or thinking.
They can be divided into:
-concept
Important competencies for international project managers:
1.Global organizing skills.
2.Technical skills.
3.Cross-cultural skills.
4.Global communication literacy.
International project managers should have a certain personality
in order to
be effective (see next slide).
10
Traits of
effective
international
project
managers
Adaptabilit
y
Authenticit
y
Empathy
Context/
Culture-
sensitivity
Courage
Enthusias
m
Initiative
&
Innovative
-ness
Personal
stability
Open-
mindedne
ss
Patience
&
Persistenc
e
Respect
for
difference
s
11
Are you ready for leading international projects?
1 Initiating 2 Planning 3 Executing 4 Completion
1. Staff the project
2. Secure early
involvement
3. Conduct team building sessions
4. Assess
training needs
5. Provide context
6. Organize for
success
7. Continuously clarify project mission and scope
8. Foster a culture of open-mindedness and improvement
9. Build and maintain commitment
10. Ensure effective communication
Re-assess
training needs
12
Main tasks of an international project manager
THE INTERNATIONAL PROJECT TEAM
International project team:
ly with
complementary skills, who pursue a common goal together.
Criteria of a successful international project team:
-direction
ity orientation
13
1.
• Interview key players
2.
• Plan the first meetings
3.
• Decide on the contents of the first meetings
4.
• Focus on building interrelationships
5.
• Explore cultural similarities and differences
6.
• Agree on ground rules for co-operation
14
How to build a successful international project
team
MANAGING RISK AND
UNCERTAINTY IN AN
INTERNATIONAL PROJECT
Chapter 4
WHAT IS RISK IN THE CONTEXT OF PROJECT
MANAGEMENT?
Risk is an uncertain event that, if it occurs, can have a
positive or negative impact on the project.
There are risks that can be anticipated (known-unknown),
and risks that emerge during the project (unknown-unknown).
Sources of risks that can be anticipated:
Risk management is influenced by the local cultures project
members were socialized in (see next slide).
2
Individuals from equality-oriented cultures
may involve the whole project team to identify
and monitor risk. They also may involve all
relevant group members into the decision on
countermeasures. Project managers from
hierarchy-oriented cultures may identify risk
on their own and be the only one responsible
for taking countermeasures. Group members
may be very comfortable not having any
responsibility for this ‘dangerous’ task.
Equality Hierarchy
Individuals from cultures with high risk
avoidance tend to fear unfamiliarity and
ambiguous situations. They may try to ignore
risk. People from risk-embracing cultures may
be more actively seeking for risk, also to turn it
into an opportunity.
Embracing
Risk
Avoiding
Risk
People from individualistic cultures might be
more inclined to take decisions on their own in
risky and urgent situations, whereas persons
from group-oriented cultures may want to
consult with other group or network members
which is time-consuming.
Individual Group
THE IMPACT OF CULTURE ON RISK MANAGEMENT
3
THE RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESS
Risk that can be anticipated needs to be planned for.
Risk planning means identification of risk, analysis of risk
impact, planning responses to risk, monitoring and controlling
the project for risks that may occur.
These activities are also referred to as risk management.
Each step of the process contains the following sub-activities
(see next slide):
4
Required inputs:
Required Tools & Techniques:
1. Project status meetings
2. Environment scanning tools
1
3
2
4
Identifying
Risks
Analyzing &
Prioritizing
Risks
Performing
Risk
Planning
Monitoring &
Controlling
Risks
The Risk
Management
Process
1. Assess of impact of risks on main project
objectives
2. Combine impact of risks with probability
of risk occurrence
3. Prioritize risks in terms of ‘high risk’,
‘medium risk’ and ‘low risk’
Main Output: Risk register outline
Required Tools & Techniques:
1. Documentation reviews, including
lessons learnt from previous projects
2. Information gathering techniques
3. Diagramming techniques
4. Risk checklists
5. Tools to systematically analyse project
and organizational environment
1. Project scope statement
2. Work breakdown structure
3. Analysis of organization’s environment
Main Output:
Risk register with classification of risks, risk triggers,
assumptions, and risk owners
Required Tools & Techniques:
1. Probability and impact matrix
2. Probability distribution calculations
3. Sensitivity analysis
4. Expected monetary value analysis EMV
Required activities:
1. Select of risk response strategies for
identified risks
2. Compile of contingency plans
3. Estimate of cost and time for
contingency measures
Required Tools & Techniques:
Scheduling and costing for contingencies (cf. Chapter 5)
Required activities:
Required inputs:
1. Extended risk register with contingency plans
2. Change requests
3. Stakeholder management analysis
Not
discussed
in this book
Main Output:
Extended risk register including contingency plans (with budget
and estimated time)
Required activities:
1. Monitor risk status
2. Ensure appropriateness of response
plans
3. Monitor project environment for
emerging risks
4. Ensure proper execution of risk
management plan
Main Output: Updated risk register
5
RISK IDENTIFICATION TOOLS
PESTEL
technological, environmental and legal environment of a project
for ONE geographical market, typically a country.
with
the analysis of the sociocultural environment.
Examples of industry specific tools:
: Systematic analysis
of
process systems, equipment and procedures to identify potential
hazards to people/project stakeholders and the environment.
impacts of
fire in the context of the project.
the
construction plan.
6
Country
•Similarity of cultural norms
with organization’s home
country
•Religious habits and customs
•Quality of education
•Demographic development
•Language skills
•(Social) mobility
•Public opinion (e.g. on
environmental protection)
•Work-life balance
•Level of transportation and
communication infrastructure
•Level of innovation
•Technology clusters
•Environmental protection laws
•Availability of natural resources
•Use and reuse of energy
•Antitrust law
•Tax regime
•Health and Safety
•Labour law
•Product liability law
•Social insurance law
•Protection of intellectual
property
•Reliability of law
enforcement
•Political systems and its
stability
•Security risks like social unrest
•Sovereign risks like
expropriation
•Level and acceptance of
corruption
•Tariff and non-tariff barriers to
trade
•GNP trends
•Level of interest rates
•Inflation rate
•Volatility of currency
•Purchasing power
•Employment rate
•Capital supply
Legal Socio-
cultural
EXAMPLES OF FACTORS TO BE CHECKED WITH THE
PESTEL TOOL
7
RISK ANALYSIS
Probability and impact matrix.
-tech tool for risk prioritization.
d of risk occurrence with the effect
the risk
will have on the project objectives.
three
stage (low, medium, high) or five stage (insignificant, minor,
moderate, major, horrible).
use
colour coding:
on the project.
ject results
and/or medium to
low likelihood of occurrence.
impact on the
project’s objectives.
8
STRATEGIES TO COPE WITH
FORESEEABLE RISK
1. Risk avoidance.
2. Risk mitigation.
3. Risk acceptance.
4. Risk transfer.
5. Risk absorption or pooling.
9
Risk register
Risk
No.
Risk description
Cause of
risk
Probability
of occur-
rence
Impact
on
project
Contin-
gency
measure
Cost in
Yen
Date of
entry
Example of risk register
First, the risk needs to be identified (field ‘risk description’).
To analyse the risk and
to plan for counter measures or contingency measures, the cause
of the risk has to
be known (field ‘cause of risk’). Information on risk propensity,
impact on project
results, cost of potential counter measures, and date of risk
occurrence has to be
added
10

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PLANNING THE INTERNATIONAL PROJECT IN TERMS OF TIME, COS.docx

  • 1. PLANNING THE INTERNATIONAL PROJECT IN TERMS OF TIME, COST, AND QUALITY Chapter 5 THE CHALLENGE OF PLANNING AN INTERNATIONAL PROJECT Why planning a project? chaos. Issues with planning in international project. changing international environment. predict. ng than for planning standard projects. 2
  • 2. THE PLANNING PROCESS The planning process can be divided into four major tasks: 1. Planning time. 2. Scheduling under resource constraints. 3. Planning cost. 4. Planning quality. The objective of planning is to: 3 Required inputs: 1 3 2 4 Planning Time
  • 3. Scheduling under resource constraints Planning Cost Planning Quality Planning Time, Cost, Quality of the International Project 1. Work Breakdown Structure 2. Organizational Breakdown Structure 3. Analysis of skill sets of available staff beyond academic and job titles (based on CVs and interviews)
  • 4. 4. Overview of holiday entitlements of international staff in different locations Main output: Gantt chart or network diagram Required tools and techniques: - Project Network Diagram, mainly Activity on Arrow (AoA) as basis for CPM, CPA, PERT, PDM etc. - Gantt chart or bar chart 1. Project Scope Statement 2. Work Breakdown Structure 3. Estimates for activity duration 4. Establishment of relationships between single activities in form of precedence 5. Calendar with international holidays relevant to the international project Main output: Resource loaded Gantt chart
  • 5. Required tools and techniques: - Loaded Gantt chart Required inputs: 1. Financial objective / available budget 2. Cost estimates 3. Overview of international locations involved in the project 4. Overview of salaries, facilities, equipment and other costs in the relevant international locations 5. Cost for risk mitigation or contingency plans (cf. Chapter 4) 6. Development of currency fluctuations Required tools and techniques: - Step counting cost-estimating techniques - Exponential cost-estimating techniques - Parametric cost-estimating techniques - Even-loading, front-loading, back-loading budget
  • 6. methods - Periodic cost spreadsheet - Cumulative cost spreadsheet Required inputs: Required inputs: 1. Project scope statement incl. cross-check of customer’s expectation level 2. Cultural gap analysis regarding perception of quality in involved countries and cultures 3. Functionality of product/service/project result Not discussed in this book Main output: Budget spreadsheets Required tools and techniques: - Standard quality control techniques - Pareto diagrams - Checklists for partner selection
  • 7. - Spider diagrams for training assessments Main output: Definition of quality known to all project members Water-tight specification sheets Final output of cycle: project master plan (additional input needed for master plan: OBS/responsibility chart cf. Chapter 6) Cf. Chapter 6 Not discussed in this book Not discussed in this book 4
  • 8. CULTURAL IMPACT ON PLANNING National culture determines the attitude of a project member or stakeholder towards the effectiveness of planning. It also has an influence on the detail level and structure of the plans. The attitude towards planning is influenced by the external environment, e.g. frequency of natural disasters, reliability of infrastructure. The following two slides will use the cultural gap tool and apply it to the area of project planning. 5 Project managers who are rather hierarchy- oriented tend to create a plan on their own. More equality-oriented PMs will tend to involve their team. Equality Hierarchy Project managers and members who are afraid of risk tend to put more effort on planning details than risk embracing project
  • 9. managers and teams. Embracing Risk Avoiding Risk Project managers and other stakeholders with a universal background tend to create a Master Plan which is to be applied at all sites and to situations. Circumstantial people tend to stick to high-level planning with flexibility. Universal Circumstan- tial Project managers and other stakeholders who are task-oriented tend to create Work Breakdown Structures and to-do lists. Relationship-oriented individuals tend to spend much more time on networking with
  • 10. main stakeholders than on creating a plan. Task Relationship CULTURAL GAP TOOL FOR PLANNING (1 ) 6 Achievement Standing / Status Project managers and members with a sequential approach tend to follow the planning process, with the creation of estimates of time, cost, and links to resource availability. People from synchronic cultures may put less effort in sequencing. Sequential Synchronic Project managers and members who are more oriented towards theory tend to attach more importance and put more effort into planning. People from pragmatic cultures may tend to
  • 11. focus on learning by doing and spend less time on the creation of plans. Theoretical Pragmatic Project managers who are more achievement-oriented tend to ‘follow the textbook’ in order to obtain the given targets. Project managers and members with a stronger status orientation might have a separate agenda partially contradictory to the project goal. CULTURAL GAP TOOL FOR PLANNING (2) 7 SCHEDULING Scheduling comprises of the following activities: Breakdown Structure. the sequence of these activities.
  • 12. overall duration of the project. Tools used for scheduling: The prerequisite of scheduling is the assumption that time can be measured, and duration needs to be minimized. This prerequisite is not given in all local cultures. 8 Integration start 0 Finalize new strategy 10 Decide on new processes
  • 13. 5 Test pilot 10 Roll out new processes 30 Integration end 0 Build new intranet 14 Feed with new processes 7 Identify key
  • 14. users among personnel 5 Language trainings 15 General process trainings 8 9 Estimating activity durations in an activity on arrow network diagram Activity 1 Activity 2 Activity 1 Activity 2 Activity 1 Activity 2 10 After durations have been estimated, the logical relation between activities needs to be determined.
  • 15. Determining relations between activities Activity Name Earliest Start Time Latest Start Time Latest Finish Time Earliest Finish Time Float or Slack Activity Duration 1 2 34 5 11 The structure of a node of a network diagram
  • 17. 15 15 25 2510 - Roll out new process 25 25 55 5530 - Integration end 55 55 55 550 Build new intranet
  • 18. 0 4 18 1414 4 Feed with new processes 15 18 25 227 3 Identify key personnel 0 27 32 155 17 Language
  • 19. trainings 15 32 47 3015 17 General process trainings 30 47 55 388 17 12 The complete network diagram with duration, float, and interdependencies Factors impacting international project
  • 20. scheduling Additional time for coordination, communication and training Additional time for local adaptations (of processes, products, or services) Additional time for team building activities Consideration of different public holidays and vacation time Consideration of different calendars and auspicious days 13 Particularities of scheduling international projects
  • 21. ADDING RESOURCES TO SCHEDULING (1) To finalize the scheduling activities, the project manager has to take quantitative and qualitative aspects of resources into account: human resources need to be available to carry out the tasks as depicted in the WBS. international projects: 14 ADDING RESOURCES TO SCHEDULING (2) Staff planning involves the following main activities: am members are 100 per cent dedicated to the project. -commitment of resources: -schedule tasks. -prioritize tasks.
  • 22. 15 Peak Units: Calendar week Calendar week TL: Team leader Over-allocated resources Allocated resources 16 Example of resource-loaded Gantt chart PLANNING COST Purpose of cost planning: realize the
  • 23. project’s objective. Cost planning activities: where necessary. Types of costs: ct the budget is planned for. such as general administrative costs. 17 EXAMPLES OF COST COMPONENTS Labour Materials Plant and equipment Travel and transportation
  • 24. Subcontract Training Legal support Investment cost Rent Overhead and administration Fees and taxation Inflation Contingency (covers oversights or unknowns as a sort of buffer) 18 Simplified Cumulative Cost Spreadsheet: Production Transfer from Europe to China P = Plan Total Budget € 1 million A = Actual Cost categories Period to date in months 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
  • 25. Labour P 20,000 45,000 75,000 115,000 200,000 260,000 330,000 410,000 480,000 550,000 A Travel / expenses P 16,000 32,000 64,000 96,000 130,000 170,000 200,000 240,000 300,000 380,000 A Others (consulting, supplier dev., prototypes, logistics etc.) P 0 3,000 7,000 14,000 20,000 28,000 35,000 43,000 61,000 70,000 A Total 36,000 80,000 146,000 225,000 350,000 458,000 565,000
  • 26. 693,000 841,000 1,000,000 19 Example of budget for international project PARTICULARITIES OF INTERNATIONAL PROJECTS REGARDING COST AND TIME ESTIMATES Fluctuations of currency rates need to be closely monitored. Travel expenses international projects. Selection of sites involved additional costs and delays. afety. These may incur additional costs, e.g. required translations of documents. 20 PARTICULARITIES OF INTERNATIONAL PROJECTS REGARDING QUALITY PLANNING
  • 27. There needs to be a common understanding about quality among the major project stakeholders. Never take things for granted product/service is used? Pay special attention to training needs and the selection of co- operation partners. 21 IMPLEMENTING AND CONTROLLING INTERNATIONAL PROJECTS Chapter 7 THE CHALLENGE OF IMPLEMENTING AND CONTROLLING AN INTERNATIONAL PROJECT
  • 28. The efficiency and efficacy of the processes and activities in the implementation phase highly depend on the quality of the output of the initiation and planning phases. The main activities in the implementation phase follow the Plan-Do- Check-Act cycle: based on the project master plan. status by implementing counter measures. 2 MONITORING AND CONTROLLING Project monitoring refers to keeping track or checking a situation for a special purpose. Project controlling entails an element of influence and exertion of power to rectify undesired situations: bject of this chapter): Fact-based controlling of resources with tools and techniques.
  • 29. -oriented controlling, using stakeholder management, leadership, motivation, negotiation, conflict management. The detailed inputs, and outputs of these activities will be explained on the following slide. 3 Required inputs: Project Proposal and Project Master Plan , i.e. Required tools and techniques: 1. Change orders 2. Change documentation supported by IT 3. Follow up of issue log in status meetings 1 3 2 4 PLAN
  • 30. DOCHECK ACT The Monitoring Cycle 1. Inadequate allowance for time in planning phase 2. Inadequate specifications 3. Inadequate knowledge about customer’s needs 4. Lack of discipline 5. Improvements due to technological progress 6. Unforeseeable circumstances 1. Stakeholder Matrix 2. Cultural gap analysis 3. Diversity-Complexity Assessment 4. Project Scope Statement 5. Enhanced Risk Register 6. Resource loaded Gantt charts
  • 31. 7. Cumulative spread sheets 8. Quality plan incl. specs 9. Project structure 10. Contracts Main output: Data in form of nominal scale, interval scale, or descriptions Required activities: • Collection of hard data, mainly supported by IT • Collection of soft data considering impact of cultural diversity Main reasons for variances: 1. Data in various forms 2. Observations Required tools and techniques: 1. Red/Amble/Green 2. Milestone Analysis 3. Critical Path
  • 32. 4. Earned Value Analysis 5. Balanced Score Card Required inputs: Required inputs: 1. Analysis of deviations or variances 2. Analysis of their root causes Main output: • Deviation analysis regarding time, cost, quality, scope, satisfaction level • Issue log Required activities: • Decision on countermeasures • Claim management • Change management 4 CULTURAL IMPACT ON PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION (1) The application of the cultural gap analysis helps the project manager selecting adequate controlling and monitoring
  • 33. techniques. It also raises his or her awareness regarding potential behavioural differences within the team in the implementation phase. An important difference to keep in mind: -oriented cultures, remote or virtual controlling usually works. -oriented cultures, personal controlling and support is difficult to replace by remote controlling techniques. The following two slides give a systematic overview of potential behavioural differences among project members in the execution phase. 5 The higher the inclination to avoid risk, the more likely it is that important decisions due to a changing environment get delayed due to the fact that more details are needed for decision making. If decisions are avoided, plans cannot be modified, and monitoring gets meaningless.
  • 34. Embracing risk Avoiding risk Data collection and reporting: persons from individualistic cultures tend to feel more comfortable responding to non-anonymous interviews or questionnaires for data collection. They also tend to feel more comfortable with measurement of their personal performance compared to team members from collectivistic cultures. Individual Group Individuals from rather circumstantial cultures might feel that it does not make sense to monitor and revise ‘old’ plans. They might feel that it is sufficient to adapt to changes when they come, without documenting deviations from the original plan. Universal Circumstan- tial
  • 35. CULTURAL IMPACT ON PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION (2) 6 Project managers from achievement-oriented cultures may tend to invest some time in monitoring on a regular basis in order to counteract quickly. More status-oriented project managers might spend their time on presumably more rewarding activities like politics or building networks. Achievement Standing / status Prioritization of tasks under time constraints might be difficult for individuals from synchronic cultures. Sequential Synchronic Individuals from more pragmatic-orientated cultures may prefer quick action and countermeasures over thorough analysis of the cause of deviations from the plan.
  • 36. Theoretical Pragmatic Task Relationship Individuals from relationship-oriented cultures could have difficulties in reporting issues or anything bad in order not to ruin the relationship to the person they are reporting to. They may also need more direct physical follow-up in terms of encouragement rather than virtual status meetings. CULTURAL IMPACT ON PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION (3) 7 MONITORING TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES Project monitoring:
  • 37. oject information: Pre-requisite: Performance Indicators (KPI). Areas to be monitored: rable quality. clarity of goals, establishment of clear communication, adequate project team capabilities, project culture. 8 PARTICULARITIES OF MONITORING INTERNATIONAL PROJECTS to be more complex than monitoring standard projects.
  • 38. that may be culturally impacted. project, but also outside of the project. helps with this task. 9 10 Internal Completion 1. Resources: time, cost 2. Productivity of human resources (due to cultural diversity) 3. Quality 4. Scope 5. Delays of input from other projects 6. Support level from HQ/top management
  • 39. 7. Efficiency and consistency of business processes across locations 1. Executive management 2. Steering committee 3. Line managers 4. Heads of subsidiaries 5. Project team members 6. Users within organization 1. Customer 2. Suppliers 3. Subcontractors 4. Consultants 5. (International) users outside of organization 1. Economic situation of the countries the project operates in 2. Government regulations and approvals (changes, delays)
  • 40. 3. Natural disasters or untypical weather change 4. Technological problems like power outages More details see Chapter 4 Satisfaction External Monitor matrix for international projects CONTROLLING TECHNIQUES (1) Low tech controlling tools: effectiveness depends on underlying criteria (see example on next slide). -explanatory colour coding very suitable for international projects. -defined milestones.
  • 41. -building events. 11 Criteria for project status light setting Profitability R&D costs Milestone review Specific project risks Project resources Red, if any of the criteria is red. Total project traffic light status Yellow, if any of the criteria is yellow. Green, if all criteria is
  • 42. green. EXAMPLE OF TRAFFIC LIGHT TOOL 12 CONTROLLING TECHNIQUES (2) More complicated controlling tools: and project performance. -lasting, complex, international projects. accomplished at a certain point in time based upon the planned or budgeted value for the work. areas like customer’s satisfaction, internal business processes, and learning and growth need to be monitored. 13
  • 44. 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1.000 1.100 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Planned cost in relation to schedule 14 Example of EVA Calculation (1) Time
  • 47. Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Planned Actual 15 Example of EVA Calculation (2) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Apr May Jun AC = 503 Time C o
  • 48. s t in T € PC = 458 SVm SV = 54 CV = -99 EV = 404 16 Example of EVA Calculation (3) MANAGING PLANNED AND UNPLANNED CHANGE Detect variations from the plan: monitoring matrix). (see next slide).
  • 49. the issue until completion. Central version control: administered by a central database. Claim management is a special form of change management. 17 Issue Log No. Date Description Impact (in terms of project completion) Suggested solution Responsible person
  • 50. Date of comple- tion 18 Example of issue log LEADING INTERNATIONAL PROJECTS Chapter 8 LEADING INTERNATIONAL PROJECTS Leading international projects means spanning cultural, organizational, geographical, and time boundaries. Indirect and virtual leadership skills play an important role. The international project manager has to lead heterogeneous stakeholders in a sensitive and creative way. Leading international projects means influencing, motivating, and enabling project members from different national cultures. 2
  • 51. Context of leading international projects Geogra- phic dispersion Temporal dispersion Cultural dispersion Organiza- tional dispersion 3 Challenges of leading international projects LEADERSHIP AND CULTURE According to the GLOBE study, leadership styles and leadership preferences of each national culture vary. Depending on the national culture of leader and followers,
  • 52. different leadership styles are effective. The international project manager needs to adapt his or her leadership style accordingly. 4 Leaders from hierarchy cultures tend to act like a benevolent autocrat with absolute authority and decision making power. Leaders from equality-oriented cultures may prefer a participative leadership style with shared responsibilities including the staff into the decision making process. Equality Hierarchy Leaders from collectivist cultures tend to prefer a patriarchic leadership style giving their subordinates the feeling of (emotional) security. Incentives would be rather team or group-
  • 53. oriented than given to single individuals. Leaders from individualistic cultures tend to assume the role of a coach developing their subordinates. They tend to take decisions based on facts collected from the whole team. Leaders from group-oriented cultures tend to take decisions based on opinions of major stakeholders. Individual Group CULTURAL IMPACT OF CULTURE ON LEADING INTERNATIONAL PROJECTS 5 For leaders from task-oriented cultures, the project team is only a temporary organization to accomplish the project task. For leaders from relationship-oriented cultures, good morale and close relationships in the project team are the
  • 54. sine-qua-non for task accomplishment and hence relationships in the team are more important. They may also support their subordinates on private issues. Task Relationship Leaders from achievement-oriented cultures tend to measure themselves and their followers by the accomplishment of objectives. A preferred leadership style would be management by objectives. Leaders from status-oriented cultures tend to focus on networking with politically important players in order to safeguard their status and tend to manage subjectively. Achievement Standing / Status Leaders from conflict-oriented cultures tend to initiate open discussions on issues when providing feedback. They use brainstorming
  • 55. sessions for constructive conflict resolution. Leaders from consensus-oriented cultures tend to build up networks and use them to reach compromises. They may tend to provide indirect feedback to give face. Conflict Consensus CULTURAL IMPACT OF CULTURE ON LEADING INTERNATIONAL PROJECTS 6 NATIONAL CULTURE, ORGANIZATIONAL CULTURE, AND MOTIVATION Motivation is a crucial component of leadership. Motivation highly depends on individual preferences. Organizational culture plays an important role regarding motivation, reflected in available HR systems. Maslow’s hierarchy of needs (see next slide) provide the project manager with a rough orientation regarding motivational preferences allocated to national cultures. 7
  • 56. Safety Needs Culture influences: Uncertainty Avoidance Physiological Needs Social Needs Culture influences: Femininity, Individualism / Collectivism Esteem Needs Self- Actualization Culture influences: Power Distance Culture influences: Individualism Collectivism 8 National culture and motivation DIFFERENT LEADERSHIP STYLES BASED ON GLOBE STUDY Charismatic / Value-based leadership.
  • 57. Team-oriented leadership. Participative leadership. Humane-oriented leadership. Autonomous leadership. Self-protective leadership. An international leader has to be able to switch between the styles. Charismatic / Value-based leadership style is most appropriate for leading across geographical boundaries. 9 COMPETENCIES FOR LEADING INTERNATIONAL PROJECTS Competencies are consistent ways of behaving or thinking. They can be divided into: -concept
  • 58. Important competencies for international project managers: 1.Global organizing skills. 2.Technical skills. 3.Cross-cultural skills. 4.Global communication literacy. International project managers should have a certain personality in order to be effective (see next slide). 10 Traits of effective international project managers Adaptabilit y Authenticit y Empathy
  • 60. 11 Are you ready for leading international projects? 1 Initiating 2 Planning 3 Executing 4 Completion 1. Staff the project 2. Secure early involvement 3. Conduct team building sessions 4. Assess training needs 5. Provide context 6. Organize for success 7. Continuously clarify project mission and scope 8. Foster a culture of open-mindedness and improvement 9. Build and maintain commitment 10. Ensure effective communication Re-assess
  • 61. training needs 12 Main tasks of an international project manager THE INTERNATIONAL PROJECT TEAM International project team: ly with complementary skills, who pursue a common goal together. Criteria of a successful international project team: -direction ity orientation 13
  • 62. 1. • Interview key players 2. • Plan the first meetings 3. • Decide on the contents of the first meetings 4. • Focus on building interrelationships 5. • Explore cultural similarities and differences 6. • Agree on ground rules for co-operation 14 How to build a successful international project team MANAGING RISK AND UNCERTAINTY IN AN INTERNATIONAL PROJECT Chapter 4
  • 63. WHAT IS RISK IN THE CONTEXT OF PROJECT MANAGEMENT? Risk is an uncertain event that, if it occurs, can have a positive or negative impact on the project. There are risks that can be anticipated (known-unknown), and risks that emerge during the project (unknown-unknown). Sources of risks that can be anticipated: Risk management is influenced by the local cultures project members were socialized in (see next slide). 2 Individuals from equality-oriented cultures may involve the whole project team to identify and monitor risk. They also may involve all relevant group members into the decision on countermeasures. Project managers from hierarchy-oriented cultures may identify risk
  • 64. on their own and be the only one responsible for taking countermeasures. Group members may be very comfortable not having any responsibility for this ‘dangerous’ task. Equality Hierarchy Individuals from cultures with high risk avoidance tend to fear unfamiliarity and ambiguous situations. They may try to ignore risk. People from risk-embracing cultures may be more actively seeking for risk, also to turn it into an opportunity. Embracing Risk Avoiding Risk People from individualistic cultures might be more inclined to take decisions on their own in risky and urgent situations, whereas persons
  • 65. from group-oriented cultures may want to consult with other group or network members which is time-consuming. Individual Group THE IMPACT OF CULTURE ON RISK MANAGEMENT 3 THE RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESS Risk that can be anticipated needs to be planned for. Risk planning means identification of risk, analysis of risk impact, planning responses to risk, monitoring and controlling the project for risks that may occur. These activities are also referred to as risk management. Each step of the process contains the following sub-activities (see next slide): 4 Required inputs: Required Tools & Techniques: 1. Project status meetings
  • 66. 2. Environment scanning tools 1 3 2 4 Identifying Risks Analyzing & Prioritizing Risks Performing Risk Planning Monitoring & Controlling Risks The Risk Management
  • 67. Process 1. Assess of impact of risks on main project objectives 2. Combine impact of risks with probability of risk occurrence 3. Prioritize risks in terms of ‘high risk’, ‘medium risk’ and ‘low risk’ Main Output: Risk register outline Required Tools & Techniques: 1. Documentation reviews, including lessons learnt from previous projects 2. Information gathering techniques 3. Diagramming techniques 4. Risk checklists 5. Tools to systematically analyse project and organizational environment 1. Project scope statement 2. Work breakdown structure 3. Analysis of organization’s environment Main Output: Risk register with classification of risks, risk triggers,
  • 68. assumptions, and risk owners Required Tools & Techniques: 1. Probability and impact matrix 2. Probability distribution calculations 3. Sensitivity analysis 4. Expected monetary value analysis EMV Required activities: 1. Select of risk response strategies for identified risks 2. Compile of contingency plans 3. Estimate of cost and time for contingency measures Required Tools & Techniques: Scheduling and costing for contingencies (cf. Chapter 5) Required activities: Required inputs: 1. Extended risk register with contingency plans 2. Change requests
  • 69. 3. Stakeholder management analysis Not discussed in this book Main Output: Extended risk register including contingency plans (with budget and estimated time) Required activities: 1. Monitor risk status 2. Ensure appropriateness of response plans 3. Monitor project environment for emerging risks 4. Ensure proper execution of risk management plan Main Output: Updated risk register 5 RISK IDENTIFICATION TOOLS PESTEL
  • 70. technological, environmental and legal environment of a project for ONE geographical market, typically a country. with the analysis of the sociocultural environment. Examples of industry specific tools: : Systematic analysis of process systems, equipment and procedures to identify potential hazards to people/project stakeholders and the environment. impacts of fire in the context of the project. the construction plan. 6 Country •Similarity of cultural norms with organization’s home country •Religious habits and customs
  • 71. •Quality of education •Demographic development •Language skills •(Social) mobility •Public opinion (e.g. on environmental protection) •Work-life balance •Level of transportation and communication infrastructure •Level of innovation •Technology clusters •Environmental protection laws •Availability of natural resources •Use and reuse of energy •Antitrust law •Tax regime •Health and Safety •Labour law
  • 72. •Product liability law •Social insurance law •Protection of intellectual property •Reliability of law enforcement •Political systems and its stability •Security risks like social unrest •Sovereign risks like expropriation •Level and acceptance of corruption •Tariff and non-tariff barriers to trade •GNP trends •Level of interest rates •Inflation rate
  • 73. •Volatility of currency •Purchasing power •Employment rate •Capital supply Legal Socio- cultural EXAMPLES OF FACTORS TO BE CHECKED WITH THE PESTEL TOOL 7 RISK ANALYSIS Probability and impact matrix. -tech tool for risk prioritization. d of risk occurrence with the effect the risk will have on the project objectives. three stage (low, medium, high) or five stage (insignificant, minor, moderate, major, horrible).
  • 74. use colour coding: on the project. ject results and/or medium to low likelihood of occurrence. impact on the project’s objectives. 8 STRATEGIES TO COPE WITH FORESEEABLE RISK 1. Risk avoidance. 2. Risk mitigation. 3. Risk acceptance. 4. Risk transfer. 5. Risk absorption or pooling. 9
  • 75. Risk register Risk No. Risk description Cause of risk Probability of occur- rence Impact on project Contin- gency measure Cost in Yen Date of
  • 76. entry Example of risk register First, the risk needs to be identified (field ‘risk description’). To analyse the risk and to plan for counter measures or contingency measures, the cause of the risk has to be known (field ‘cause of risk’). Information on risk propensity, impact on project results, cost of potential counter measures, and date of risk occurrence has to be added 10