Insights and observations into Obama's 2012 election win. Focussing on Strategy, big data and brand. Useful for modern brand builders, advertising planners, comms planners as well as strategiest from different disciplines. (Detailed commentary and links on each slide in the notes section)
2. 10 observations
1. Have a clear and authentic brand
2. Know who your true audience is
3. Embraced Big Data
4. Turned supporters into donors
5. Embraced Behavioural Economics
6. Stick to a clear strategy
7. A fresh approach to advertising
8. Get out the vote
9. Support from the right partners
10. Excel in the day job
47. 10 observations
1. Have a clear and authentic brand
2. Know who your true audience is
3. Embraced Big Data
4. Turned supporters into donors
5. Embraced Behavioural Economics
6. Stick to a clear strategy
7. A fresh approach to advertising
8. Get out the vote
9. Support from the right partners
10. Excel in the day job
Key points:
Presidential, New Generation, Real American, Caring, in touch with real people, Amazing back-story
2008: Change: Jobs, Reform Healthcare, Reduce the deficit by increasing taxes on the wealthy.
Key Points: No one knew the real Romney. Torn between more liberal past and the traditional Republican base.
His strength: An incredible business leader
Nonwhites made up 28 percent of the electorate this year, compared with 20 percent in 2000. Much of that growth is coming from HispanicsObama captured a commanding 80 percent of the growing ranks of nonwhite voters in 2012, just as he did in 2008. Republican Mitt Romney won 59 percent of non-Hispanic whites
For a long time, right-wingers — and some pundits — have peddled the notion that the “real America”, all that really counted, was the land of non-urban white people, to which both parties must abase themselves. Meanwhile, the actual electorate was getting racially and ethnically diverse, and increasingly tolerant too. The 2008 Obama coalition wasn’t a fluke; it was the country we are becoming.
Second, he mobilized key voter blocks to register early and vote. 18-24 year olds; African Americans; Latinos and single women in the key swing States. Voter turnout for these four key demographics was about 70% thereby giving him the numbers he needed to push him over the edge.
At the heart of these two strategies, was micro-targeting
Targeting: Recognised changing demographics and importance of micro-targetting and the important Swing states
In North Carolina, where Romney narrowly defeated Obama, 42 percent of black voters said they had been contacted on behalf of Obama, compared with just 26 percent of whites
In Nevada, for example, white voters made up 80 percent of the electorate in 2000; now they’re at 64 percent. The share of Hispanics in the state electorate has grown to 19 percent; Obama won 70 percent of their votes
Hyper-local is the new blackPart of the appeal of online video is the ability to hyper-target, that is, the ability to pinpoint media and commercial messaging within a narrow catchment area. In Blacksburg, Va., for example, there are 30,000 students residing at Virginia Tech. The Obama campaign’s Hulu buys targeted the schools’ zip code with “Gotta Vote” spots to encourage students to register and turn out.
Broadcast advertising, too, was tailored to local issues. In Ohio, Mr. Obama’s campaign targeted blue-collar women by promoting its track record on jobs, whereas in Florida, the Romney campaign sought Cuban-American voters with hard-hitting TV commercials claiming Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez supported Mr. Obama’s policies. We saw local radio play a role, too, in this localization.
Are we as marketers really taking opportunity of localizing our media and messaging? Despite a lot of talk about targeting, many marketers still emphasize efficiency in spending over relevance to different customer segments and markets.
Key points:
Joined-up: merge the information collected from pollsters, fundraisers, field workers and consumer databases as well as social-media and mobile contacts with the main Democratic voter files in the swing states.
Mined for insights and linked with Obama’s offering
Affecting: Targetted TV ads, but also increase the effectiveness of everything from phone calls and door knocks to direct mailings and social media.
Tested, tested, tested: Every email was tested on 18 smaller groups first. Top performing donation emails had 10x performance of the underachievers
Details…
But Scherer highlighted something else that was fundamentally critical: joined-up data
And that's the point. Joined-up data that enables you to understand which stories to tell to who, and how and when they should be told. That's the future of marketing, right there
The Obama campaign, on the other hand, was iterating – like a web business. It had something it knew worked, baked it into the organisational infrastructure and it just kept tweaking it and making it better. In organisational design terms, it’s the difference between "agile" and "waterfall". In reputational terms, it’s the difference between lots of little risks and one enormous one (Russell Davies)
But from the beginning, campaign manager Jim Messina had promised a totally different, metric-driven kind of campaign in which politics was the goal but political instincts might not be the means. “We are going to measure every single thing in this campaign,” he said after taking the job. He hired an analytics department five times as large as that of the 2008 operation, with an official “chief scientist” for the Chicago headquarters named Rayid Ghani, who in a previous life crunched huge data sets to, among other things, maximize the efficiency of supermarket sales promotions.
What they revealed as they pulled back the curtain was a massive data effort that helped Obama raise $1 billion, remade the process of targeting TV ads and created detailed models of swing-state voters that could be used to increase the effectiveness of everything from phone calls and door knocks to direct mailings and social media.
creating a single massive system that could merge the information collected from pollsters, fundraisers, field workers and consumer databases as well as social-media and mobile contacts with the main Democratic voter files in the swing states.
also allowed the number crunchers to run tests predicting which types of people would be persuaded by certain kinds of appealsintricate, metric-driven e-mail campaign in which dozens of fundraising appeals went out each day. In many cases, the top performers raised 10 times as much money for the campaign as the underperformers.
Any time you received an email from the Obama campaign, it had been tested on 18 smaller groups and the response rates had been gauged. The genius of the campaign was that it learned to stop sending poor performers
Key points:
Joined-up: merge the information collected from pollsters, fundraisers, field workers and consumer databases as well as social-media and mobile contacts with the main Democratic voter files in the swing states.
Mined for insights and linked with Obama’s offering
Affecting: Targetted TV ads, but also increase the effectiveness of everything from phone calls and door knocks to direct mailings and social media.
Tested, tested, tested: Every email was tested on 18 smaller groups first. Top performing donation emails had 10x performance of the underachievers
Details…
But Scherer highlighted something else that was fundamentally critical: joined-up data
And that's the point. Joined-up data that enables you to understand which stories to tell to who, and how and when they should be told. That's the future of marketing, right there
The Obama campaign, on the other hand, was iterating – like a web business. It had something it knew worked, baked it into the organisational infrastructure and it just kept tweaking it and making it better. In organisational design terms, it’s the difference between "agile" and "waterfall". In reputational terms, it’s the difference between lots of little risks and one enormous one (Russell Davies)
But from the beginning, campaign manager Jim Messina had promised a totally different, metric-driven kind of campaign in which politics was the goal but political instincts might not be the means. “We are going to measure every single thing in this campaign,” he said after taking the job. He hired an analytics department five times as large as that of the 2008 operation, with an official “chief scientist” for the Chicago headquarters named Rayid Ghani, who in a previous life crunched huge data sets to, among other things, maximize the efficiency of supermarket sales promotions.
What they revealed as they pulled back the curtain was a massive data effort that helped Obama raise $1 billion, remade the process of targeting TV ads and created detailed models of swing-state voters that could be used to increase the effectiveness of everything from phone calls and door knocks to direct mailings and social media.
creating a single massive system that could merge the information collected from pollsters, fundraisers, field workers and consumer databases as well as social-media and mobile contacts with the main Democratic voter files in the swing states.
also allowed the number crunchers to run tests predicting which types of people would be persuaded by certain kinds of appealsintricate, metric-driven e-mail campaign in which dozens of fundraising appeals went out each day. In many cases, the top performers raised 10 times as much money for the campaign as the underperformers.
Any time you received an email from the Obama campaign, it had been tested on 18 smaller groups and the response rates had been gauged. The genius of the campaign was that it learned to stop sending poor performers
See: Communities dominate brands blog post
They built up a voter file that included voter history, demographic profiles, but also collected numerous other data points around interests … for example, did they give to charitable organizations or which magazines did they read to help them better understand who they were and better identify the group of‘persuadables‘ to target.
That data was able to be drilled down to zip codes, individual households and in many cases individuals within those households.
However it is how they deployed this data in activating their campaign that translated the insight they garnered into killer tactics for the Obama campaign.
See: Communities dominate brands
http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-11-29/the-science-behind-those-obama-campaign-e-mails
They built up a voter file that included voter history, demographic profiles, but also collected numerous other data points around interests … for example, did they give to charitable organizations or which magazines did they read to help them better understand who they were and better identify the group of‘persuadables‘ to target.
That data was able to be drilled down to zip codes, individual households and in many cases individuals within those households.
However it is how they deployed this data in activating their campaign that translated the insight they garnered into killer tactics for the Obama campaign.
Last but certainly not least, you have the digital team's Quick Donate. It essentially brought the ease of Amazon's one-click purchases to political donations. "It's the absolute epitome of how you can make it easy for people to give money online," Goff said. "In terms of fundraising, that's as innovative as we needed to be." Storing people's payment information also let the campaign receive donations via text messages long before the Federal Elections Commission approved an official way of doing so. They could simply text people who'd opted in a simple message like, "Text back with how much money you'd like to donate." Sometimes people texted much larger dollar amounts back than the $10 increments that mobile carriers allow
The team was organized by Craig Fox, a behavioral economist at UCLA. It included experts like Robert Cialdini, professor emeritus at Arizona State University and author of the social science classic, Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion, and the University of Chicago‘s Richard Thaler, coauthor of Nudge.
The team was organized by Craig Fox, a behavioral economist at UCLA. It included experts like Robert Cialdini, professor emeritus at Arizona State University and author of the social science classic, Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion, and the University of Chicago‘s Richard Thaler, coauthor of Nudge.
Another research-based technique was not to simply deny negative or false rumors. It’s counter-intuitive, but studies have shown that denying misinformation can actually strengthen its credibility over time. For example, countering “Obama is a Muslim” with “No, President Obama is not a Muslim” increases the “Obama – Muslim” association by repetition. Instead, the campaign was advised to simply affirm that Obama is a Christian
Can’t talk just about past success
Framed as part of a long-term project – stick with us
The base matters in politics, but it does not follow that you should automatically listen to it.
Here is the most golden of all golden rules for a challenger in a campaign—you cannot succeed without winning the support of at least some who voted for the other side last time round. (Alistair Campbell)
Consistent. The three characteristics I would attribute to Barack Obama are (1) Consistency. (2) Consistency, and (3) Consistency. He took office promising “change.” And the major changes he promised include creating jobs, reforming the health-care system and reducing the deficits by increasing taxes on the wealthy. He has never wavered from these three basic principles (Al Ries)
His best approach was to plead for more time to “finish the job.” So he used the slogan “Forward.”
His “Forward” slogan implied that Republicans want to go backwards to policies that failed in the past. Forward is a great slogan because it cuts both ways. This makes two in a row for Barack Obama. His 2008 slogan, “Change we can believe in,” was also a two-sided slogan. With the Republicans in power, John McCain couldn’t exactly advocate “change,” because that would offend his base. The best he could do would be to imply that he would do the job “better than Bush
Can’t talk just about past success
Framed as part of a long-term project – stick with us
The base matters in politics, but it does not follow that you should automatically listen to it.
Here is the most golden of all golden rules for a challenger in a campaign—you cannot succeed without winning the support of at least some who voted for the other side last time round. (Alistair Campbell)
Consistent. The three characteristics I would attribute to Barack Obama are (1) Consistency. (2) Consistency, and (3) Consistency. He took office promising “change.” And the major changes he promised include creating jobs, reforming the health-care system and reducing the deficits by increasing taxes on the wealthy. He has never wavered from these three basic principles (Al Ries)
His best approach was to plead for more time to “finish the job.” So he used the slogan “Forward.”
His “Forward” slogan implied that Republicans want to go backwards to policies that failed in the past. Forward is a great slogan because it cuts both ways. This makes two in a row for Barack Obama. His 2008 slogan, “Change we can believe in,” was also a two-sided slogan. With the Republicans in power, John McCain couldn’t exactly advocate “change,” because that would offend his base. The best he could do would be to imply that he would do the job “better than Bush
Can’t talk just about past success
Framed as part of a long-term project – stick with us
The base matters in politics, but it does not follow that you should automatically listen to it.
Here is the most golden of all golden rules for a challenger in a campaign—you cannot succeed without winning the support of at least some who voted for the other side last time round. (Alistair Campbell)
Consistent. The three characteristics I would attribute to Barack Obama are (1) Consistency. (2) Consistency, and (3) Consistency. He took office promising “change.” And the major changes he promised include creating jobs, reforming the health-care system and reducing the deficits by increasing taxes on the wealthy. He has never wavered from these three basic principles (Al Ries)
His best approach was to plead for more time to “finish the job.” So he used the slogan “Forward.”
His “Forward” slogan implied that Republicans want to go backwards to policies that failed in the past. Forward is a great slogan because it cuts both ways. This makes two in a row for Barack Obama. His 2008 slogan, “Change we can believe in,” was also a two-sided slogan. With the Republicans in power, John McCain couldn’t exactly advocate “change,” because that would offend his base. The best he could do would be to imply that he would do the job “better than Bush
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4IpIuOmDihA
Defined Romney early on (as one of the 1% who didn’t care about the middle class
They have continually positioned Romney as another rich Republican same as the last, that only cares about the old, bad American principles of supporting the rich ‘1%’ and controlling the middle class. All Obama has to do is push the ‘rich’ button and all his followers line up ready to fight
Romney had no vision and hence didn’t show his leadership potential
Why he personally deserved our vote. President Reagan made the case. So did Bill Clinton and Barack Obama in '08, and to some degree in '12. Whether you agreed with these successful candidates or not, you knew they had vision. You sensed they were leaders
Mitt Romney spent most of his time attacking Barack Obama. That’s the wrong strategy. What a politician needs to do is to offer a positive concept first (business experience) and then point out that his or her opponent lacks this concept. (Barack Obama has never worked in the private sector). It should have been easy to beat an incumbent President with his track record.
Defined Romney early on (as one of the 1% who didn’t care about the middle class
They have continually positioned Romney as another rich Republican same as the last, that only cares about the old, bad American principles of supporting the rich ‘1%’ and controlling the middle class. All Obama has to do is push the ‘rich’ button and all his followers line up ready to fight
Romney had no vision and hence didn’t show his leadership potential
Why he personally deserved our vote. President Reagan made the case. So did Bill Clinton and Barack Obama in '08, and to some degree in '12. Whether you agreed with these successful candidates or not, you knew they had vision. You sensed they were leaders
Mitt Romney spent most of his time attacking Barack Obama. That’s the wrong strategy. What a politician needs to do is to offer a positive concept first (business experience) and then point out that his or her opponent lacks this concept. (Barack Obama has never worked in the private sector). It should have been easy to beat an incumbent President with his track record.
The use of voter profiling data to inform media buying, leading to TV spots being bought around non-traditional content in order to reach specific demographics, and to Obama's appearance on Reddit where a lot of their 'turnout targets' were
Micro-targeting helped them to steer their broadcast buying approach. While both campaigns followed conventional wisdom to buy spots in Local Broadcast news programming, Obama’s team differentiated their schedule by adding networks like TV Land whose viewers they determined “were less political” and therefore more likely to be a persuadable
With Davidsen's help, the Analytics team built a tool they called The Optimizer, which allowed the campaign to buy eyeballs on television more cheaply. They took set-top box (that is to say, your cable or satellite box or DVR) data from Davidsen's old startup, Navik Networks, and correlated it with the campaign's own data. This occurred through a third party called Epsilon: the campaign sent its voter file and the television provider sent their billing file and boom, a list came back of people who had done certain things like, for example, watched the first presidential debate. Having that data allowed the campaign to buy ads that they knew would get in front of the most of their people at the least cost. They didn't have to buy the traditional stuff like the local news, either. Instead, they could run ads targeted to specific types of voters during reruns or off-peak hours.
Focus on your swing votersBoth the Romney and Obama campaigns spent the bulk of their media dollars in the battleground states including Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Florida, Wisconsin, Iowa and Nevada (sometimes to the despair of the states’ overwhelmed residents). And they trained much of their fire on the undecideds. That applied even to the individual TV shows they bought. Both campaigns largely avoided placements during cable news shows, for example, whose audiences were more likely to have already decided who they were voting for. Local news broadcasts, on the other hand, indexed highest for independents who were more likely to turn out on Election Day, according to Scarborough.Who are your swing voters? The real value of mass media, and where the economics really make sense, is in drawing new consumers into your brand
Data helped drive the campaign’s ad buying too. Rather than rely on outside media consultants to decide where ads should run, Messina based his purchases on the massive internal data sets. “We were able to put our target voters through some really complicated modeling, to say, O.K., if Miami-Dade women under 35 are the targets, [here is] how to reach them,” said one official. As a result, the campaign bought ads to air during unconventional programming, like Sons of Anarchy, The Walking Dead and Don’t Trust the B—- in Apt. 23, skirting the traditional route of buying ads next to local news programming. How much more efficient was the Obama campaign of 2012 than 2008 at ad buying? Chicago has a number for that: “On TV we were able to buy 14% more efficiently … to make sure we were talking to our persuadable voters,” the same official said.
With Twitter, one of the company's former employees, Mark Trammell, helped build a tool that could specifically send individual users direct messages. "We built an influence score for the people following the [Obama for America] accounts and then cross-referenced those for specific things we were trying to target, battleground states, that sort of stuff." Meanwhile, the teams also built an opt-in Facebook outreach program that sent people messages saying, essentially, "Your friend, Dave in Ohio, hasn't voted yet. Go tell him to vote." Goff described the Facebook tool as "the most significant new addition to the voter contact arsenal that's come around in years, since the phone call.“
The smart use of Facebook to drive mass scale advocacy. An example from the final weeks saw supporters who had downloaded an app being sent messages with pictures of their friends in swing states. By clicking a button they could urge those voters to vote, and about 1 in 5 people contacted in this way acted on the request. A million users downloaded the Obama 2012 app on Facebook
With Twitter, one of the company's former employees, Mark Trammell, helped build a tool that could specifically send individual users direct messages. "We built an influence score for the people following the [Obama for America] accounts and then cross-referenced those for specific things we were trying to target, battleground states, that sort of stuff." Meanwhile, the teams also built an opt-in Facebook outreach program that sent people messages saying, essentially, "Your friend, Dave in Ohio, hasn't voted yet. Go tell him to vote." Goff described the Facebook tool as "the most significant new addition to the voter contact arsenal that's come around in years, since the phone call.“
The smart use of Facebook to drive mass scale advocacy. An example from the final weeks saw supporters who had downloaded an app being sent messages with pictures of their friends in swing states. By clicking a button they could urge those voters to vote, and about 1 in 5 people contacted in this way acted on the request. A million users downloaded the Obama 2012 app on Facebook
With Twitter, one of the company's former employees, Mark Trammell, helped build a tool that could specifically send individual users direct messages. "We built an influence score for the people following the [Obama for America] accounts and then cross-referenced those for specific things we were trying to target, battleground states, that sort of stuff." Meanwhile, the teams also built an opt-in Facebook outreach program that sent people messages saying, essentially, "Your friend, Dave in Ohio, hasn't voted yet. Go tell him to vote." Goff described the Facebook tool as "the most significant new addition to the voter contact arsenal that's come around in years, since the phone call.“
The smart use of Facebook to drive mass scale advocacy. An example from the final weeks saw supporters who had downloaded an app being sent messages with pictures of their friends in swing states. By clicking a button they could urge those voters to vote, and about 1 in 5 people contacted in this way acted on the request. A million users downloaded the Obama 2012 app on Facebook
and to Obama's appearance on Reddit where a lot of their 'turnout targets' were
and to Obama's appearance on Reddit where a lot of their 'turnout targets' were
Obama had an enduring supporter base (Built relationship with them / showed he cared / showed genuine interest in them)
To win fans and influence customers, you have to show genuine interest in them
Last but certainly not least, you have the digital team's Quick Donate. It essentially brought the ease of Amazon's one-click purchases to political donations. "It's the absolute epitome of how you can make it easy for people to give money online," Goff said. "In terms of fundraising, that's as innovative as we needed to be." Storing people's payment information also let the campaign receive donations via text messages long before the Federal Elections Commission approved an official way of doing so. They could simply text people who'd opted in a simple message like, "Text back with how much money you'd like to donate." Sometimes people texted much larger dollar amounts back than the $10 increments that mobile carriers allow
Obama had an enduring supporter base (Built relationship with them / showed he cared / showed genuine interest in them)
To win fans and influence customers, you have to show genuine interest in them
Last but certainly not least, you have the digital team's Quick Donate. It essentially brought the ease of Amazon's one-click purchases to political donations. "It's the absolute epitome of how you can make it easy for people to give money online," Goff said. "In terms of fundraising, that's as innovative as we needed to be." Storing people's payment information also let the campaign receive donations via text messages long before the Federal Elections Commission approved an official way of doing so. They could simply text people who'd opted in a simple message like, "Text back with how much money you'd like to donate." Sometimes people texted much larger dollar amounts back than the $10 increments that mobile carriers allow
Obama had twice as many as field offices in swing states as Romney
Encouraged campaign staffers to embed themselves in Hispanic and Black community hub such as barber shops and beauty salons
. Obama’s Ground game / turning donors/supporters to help with voter activation (especially in swing states e.g: get people to contact people they know in swing states)
Remember your ground gameThe Obama campaign said it made 125 million voter contacts, more than twice the total reported by Republicans, with more field offices in key areas than the Romney campaign and more personal outreach. Marketers would do well to remember that activation, promotion and personal touches go a long way in locking in the benefits of media spending.
Volunteers canvassing door to door or calling constituents were able to access these profiles via an app accessed on an iPad, iPhone or Android mobile device to provide an instant transcript to help them steer their conversations. They were also able to input new data from their conversation back into the database real time
Team Obama’s partners: From Liberal groups to Celebs (Springsteen) to Brands (e.g: Starbucks)
Liberal commentators
Celebs (eg: Springsteen)
Liberal groups (that video)
Vs Romney: Tea Party!! / Crazy Senator!!
Even the selection of celebrity fundraisers were informed by the data. The team identified women 40-49 as the highest contributors to their campaign. Obama’s analytics team in crunching the numbers uncovered that Sara Jessica Parker of Sex in the City fame popped as the most appealing celebrity to this demographic and called her up to ask if she would host a fundraiser dinner for Obama in New York. Web ads and emails from Michelle Obama were sent targeting this group asking them to “chip in whatever they can” with a chance to win an invitation, hotel and flights to New York to attend the event.