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Algorithmic Attribution presentation made by Steve Latham at SES Chicago in November 2013.
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Algorithmic Attribution - Steve Latham | Encore Media Metrics
1.
Mul$-Āātouch Ā A,ribu$on Ā
Ā A Ā Deeper Ā Dive Ā for Ā Digital Ā Marketers Ā Steve Ā Latham Ā Encore Ā Media Ā Metrics Ā Found Ā and Ā ceo Ā Copyrighted material may not be shared. Ā© Encore Media Metrics 2013 Chicago Ā ā¢ Ā November Ā Ā 4ā7, Ā 2013 Ā ā¢ Ā #SESCHI Ā @SESConf Ā
2.
Chicago Ā | Ā November
Ā 4ā7, Ā 2013 Ā | Ā #SESCHI Ā | Ā @SESConf Ā Ā Ā Agenda qļ±āÆ qļ±āÆ qļ±āÆ qļ±āÆ Introducing Algorithmic Attribution Review reports Where we are today Implications for marketers (btw these slides are posted http://Attribution101.com ) Copyrighted material may not be shared. Ā© Encore Media Metrics 2013 @stevelatham
3.
Chicago Ā | Ā November
Ā 4ā7, Ā 2013 Ā | Ā #SESCHI Ā | Ā @SESConf Ā Ā Ā Deļ¬ning āAttributionā Two approaches to Attribution modeling: qļ±āÆ Fixed: ļ¬rst, last, U-shaped, time decay, user-based Ā§ļ§āÆ Pros: relatively easy, very low cost Ā§ļ§āÆ Cons: subject to bias, treats all impressions and clicks the same qļ±āÆ Algorithmic: using data science* to allocate fractional credit Ā§ļ§āÆ Pros: more accurate insights ĆØļØ better results over time Ā§ļ§āÆ Cons: cost and complexity *algorithmic: using machine learning and statistical (probability-based) algorithms to allocate fractional credit across assist impressions and clicks Copyrighted material may not be shared. Ā© Encore Media Metrics 2013 @stevelatham
4.
Chicago Ā | Ā November
Ā 4ā7, Ā 2013 Ā | Ā #SESCHI Ā | Ā @SESConf Ā Ā Ā Conversion Ā Path Ā Analysis Ā Conversion)Path)Analysis Engagement)Overview Sources)of)Visits)within)Conversion)Paths)========> IMPs All Converters (100%) Visits Display Direct0Nav Nat.0Search Paid0Search Referring 5.2 3.0 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.7 54.2% 45.8% 18.0% 14.0% 26.7% 18.0% 23.0% Cluster 4 (45%) 1.5 2.8 0.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.8 Cluster 6 (21%) 4.7 3.8 0.2 0.6 0.8 1.5 0.6 0.2 1.8 0.3 0.2 Relative Contribution Cluster 3 (15%) Conversion Path 6.1 Cluster 8 (13%) qļ±āÆ qļ±āÆ qļ±āÆ 4.0 1.5 analysis shows: Converters were 4.8 exposed 0.0 5.2 display ads 2.0 to 3.9 1.2 0.1 Converters visited 3.0 times before taking action Paid and natural search comprise 45% of clicks in path Copyrighted material may not be shared. Ā© Encore Media Metrics 2013 @stevelatham 1.3
5.
Chicago Ā | Ā November
Ā 4ā7, Ā 2013 Ā | Ā #SESCHI Ā | Ā @SESConf Ā Ā Ā Channel Attribution The impact can be dramatic (last-click vs. attributable) ā¢āÆ ā¢āÆ Display: 30-60% drop in CPA is typical PPC: 10-25% drop in CPA is typical Copyrighted material may not be shared. Ā© Encore Media Metrics 2013 @stevelatham
6.
Chicago Ā | Ā November
Ā 4ā7, Ā 2013 Ā | Ā #SESCHI Ā | Ā @SESConf Ā Ā Ā Keyword Attribution ā¢āÆ ā¢āÆ Last-click rewards Low-funnel terms (brand) Last-click penalizes Upper-funnel terms (endemic, category, etc.) Keyword acme5university acme acme5universities5new5york online5courses acme5learning online5university online5university5courses acme5learning5new5york adelaide5university study5online online5study distance5education online5learning short5courses5online online5university5new5york university5courses university distance5education5victoria charles5sturt5university acme.edu.au courses online5uni correspondence5courses Copyrighted material may www.acme.edu.au online5learning5new5york Clicks not be Converting Clicks 14,435 2,146 906 831 802 320 278 265 208 196 180 170 163 158 146 105 99 95 84 79 77 75 72 shared. 72 71 Ā© Assist Clicks 295 62 24 2 11 4 4 5 1 1 4 0 1 0 3 0 1 0 1 2 0 0 1 Encore 6 1 Actions Influenced 696 147 31 7 13 2 3 6 0 4 3 2 1 1 2 3 5 1 2 3 4 2 4 Media 5 0 Spend 534 $5,517 112 $693 33 $364 5 $3,805 15 $373 4 $479 5 $881 7 $104 1 $162 2 $877 5 $739 1 $611 1 $446 0 $536 3 $212 1 $183 3 $249 0 $149 2 $153 3 $17 2 $166 1 $96 2 $276 Metrics 2013 7 $22 1 $122 Cost5Per Click(CPC) $0.38 $0.32 $0.40 $4.58 $0.46 $1.50 $3.17 $0.39 $0.78 $4.47 $4.11 $3.60 $2.74 $3.39 $1.45 $1.75 $2.51 $1.57 $1.82 $0.21 $2.16 $1.28 $3.84 $0.30 $1.71 CPA5(Last Click) $18.70 $11.17 $15.18 $1902.41 $33.89 $119.86 $220.22 $20.74 $161.96 $876.69 $184.84 $0.00 $445.97 $0.00 $70.72 $0.00 $248.65 $0.00 $153.28 $8.49 $0.00 $0.00 $276.20 $3.61 $121.70 CPA (Attrib.) $10.34 $6.16 $10.98 $839.67 $25.32 $112.50 $188.95 $15.41 $187.15 $355.56 $158.60 $764.08 $352.41 $1340.44 $62.47 $152.68 $86.77 $372.03 $92.03 $5.79 $103.82 $120.17 $112.02 $3.01 $140.63 CPA5(% Change) .45% .45% .28% .56% .25% .6% .14% .26% 16% .59% .14% NA .21% NA .12% NA .65% NA .40% .32% NA NA .59% .17% 16% Rating Role Winner Contributor Winner Contributor Winner Contributor Laggard Contributor Winner Contributor Challenger Closer Challenger Closer Winner Contributor Challenger Closer Laggard Contributor Challenger Closer Laggard Closer Laggard Closer Laggard Closer Winner Closer Challenger Closer Winner Contributor Laggard Closer Challenger Contributor Winner Contributor Challenger Closer Challenger Closer Challenger Contributor @stevelatham Winner Closer Challenger Closer
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Chicago Ā | Ā November
Ā 4ā7, Ā 2013 Ā | Ā #SESCHI Ā | Ā @SESConf Ā Ā Ā Keyword Attribution ā¢āÆ ā¢āÆ Measuring attributed Actions and CPA Understanding role (contributor vs. closer) Keyword acme5university acme acme5universities5new5york online5courses acme5learning online5university online5university5courses acme5learning5new5york adelaide5university study5online online5study distance5education online5learning short5courses5online online5university5new5york university5courses university distance5education5victoria charles5sturt5university acme.edu.au courses online5uni correspondence5courses Copyrighted material may www.acme.edu.au online5learning5new5york Clicks not be Converting Clicks 14,435 2,146 906 831 802 320 278 265 208 196 180 170 163 158 146 105 99 95 84 79 77 75 72 shared. 72 71 Ā© Assist Clicks 295 62 24 2 11 4 4 5 1 1 4 0 1 0 3 0 1 0 1 2 0 0 1 Encore 6 1 Actions Influenced 696 147 31 7 13 2 3 6 0 4 3 2 1 1 2 3 5 1 2 3 4 2 4 Media 5 0 Spend 534 $5,517 112 $693 33 $364 5 $3,805 15 $373 4 $479 5 $881 7 $104 1 $162 2 $877 5 $739 1 $611 1 $446 0 $536 3 $212 1 $183 3 $249 0 $149 2 $153 3 $17 2 $166 1 $96 2 2013 $276 Metrics 7 $22 1 $122 Cost5Per Click(CPC) $0.38 $0.32 $0.40 $4.58 $0.46 $1.50 $3.17 $0.39 $0.78 $4.47 $4.11 $3.60 $2.74 $3.39 $1.45 $1.75 $2.51 $1.57 $1.82 $0.21 $2.16 $1.28 $3.84 $0.30 $1.71 CPA5(Last Click) $18.70 $11.17 $15.18 $1902.41 $33.89 $119.86 $220.22 $20.74 $161.96 $876.69 $184.84 $0.00 $445.97 $0.00 $70.72 $0.00 $248.65 $0.00 $153.28 $8.49 $0.00 $0.00 $276.20 $3.61 $121.70 CPA (Attrib.) $10.34 $6.16 $10.98 $839.67 $25.32 $112.50 $188.95 $15.41 $187.15 $355.56 $158.60 $764.08 $352.41 $1340.44 $62.47 $152.68 $86.77 $372.03 $92.03 $5.79 $103.82 $120.17 $112.02 $3.01 $140.63 CPA5(% Change) .45% .45% .28% .56% .25% .6% .14% .26% 16% .59% .14% NA .21% NA .12% NA .65% NA .40% .32% NA NA .59% .17% 16% Rating Role Winner Contributor Winner Contributor Winner Contributor Laggard Contributor Winner Contributor Challenger Closer Challenger Closer Winner Contributor Challenger Closer Laggard Contributor Challenger Closer Laggard Closer Laggard Closer Laggard Closer Winner Closer Challenger Closer Winner Contributor Laggard Closer Challenger Contributor Winner Contributor Challenger Closer Challenger Closer Challenger Contributor @stevelatham Winner Closer Challenger Closer
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Chicago Ā | Ā November
Ā 4ā7, Ā 2013 Ā | Ā #SESCHI Ā | Ā @SESConf Ā Ā Ā How Insights are Applied Optimize budget across channels Ac#ons'By'Channel' Cost'per'Ac#on' 25,000 $70 Last Click āāÆ Allocate based on attributed performance āāÆ Inform more rational budget allocations Attributed 19,732& 20,000 $60 16,228&& 12,217&& 2,657& $20 4,452&& $10 1,683&& 0 Direct Nav Search Referrals Display $0 Display Takeaway: By Re-allocating budget to Winners and capping Frequency, ROS should improve by at least 41% Optimize within each channel Predictive Analysis Vendors āāÆ Display ā¢āÆ ā¢āÆ ā¢āÆ ā¢āÆ Spend Leaders $58,841 % of Budget 39% ROS $9.03 Revenue $531,100 Pause under-performing ads (Laggards) 38% $3.26 $188,638 Challengers $57,876 Laggards $35,670 23% $1.34 $47,674 Re-allocate budget to Winners within each category $152,386 100% $5.04 $767,411 Reduce duplicate reach Total Reduce wasted frequency Proforma % Budget Proforma ROS Proforma Revenue Impact 62% $9.03 $853,059 $321,960 38% $3.91 $226,365 $37,728 0% n/a $0 ($47,674) $7.08 $1,079,424 $312,013 100% Relative Improvement Incremental Revenue 41% $312,013 āāÆ Search: ā¢āÆ Adjust bids and budget for top performers (attributed) ā¢āÆ Prioritize SEO based on highest ROI keywords Copyrighted material may not be shared. Ā© Encore Media Metrics 2013 &$36&& $40 $30 7,551& 4,640& 5,000 Last Click $50 15,000 10,000 &$58&& @stevelatham
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Chicago Ā | Ā November
Ā 4ā7, Ā 2013 Ā | Ā #SESCHI Ā | Ā @SESConf Ā Ā Ā Where We Are in the Adoption Curve Using Geoffrey Mooreās model from Crossing the Chasmā¦ āāÆ 2008-2011 Innovators āāÆ 2012-2013 Early Adopters āāÆ 2014-2015 Early Majority āāÆ 2015- ? Late Majority Copyrighted material may not be shared. Ā© Encore Media Metrics 2013 @stevelatham
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Chicago Ā | Ā November
Ā 4ā7, Ā 2013 Ā | Ā #SESCHI Ā | Ā @SESConf Ā Ā Ā Why This Matters to You qļ±āÆ qļ±āÆ Attribution is (ļ¬nally) a priority Ā§ļ§āÆ Display media is growing share (largely from ofļ¬ine budget) Ā§ļ§āÆ Relationship between Display and Search is very clear Ā§ļ§āÆ Silos giving way to integrated planning and execution How you respond will impact relationship with your clients Ā§ļ§āÆ Transparency and openness will prevail Ā§ļ§āÆ Be proactive, strategic and supportive Copyrighted material may not be shared. Ā© Encore Media Metrics 2013 @stevelatham
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Chicago Ā | Ā November
Ā 4ā7, Ā 2013 Ā | Ā #SESCHI Ā | Ā @SESConf Ā Ā Ā Takeaways 1. Itās Time to Revisit how we Measure Media āāÆ Take a holistic (and realistic) view āāÆ Position yourself as a thought leader, not a laggard 2. Don t Fear Attribution. Embrace it! āāÆ Search (done correctly) should have the lowest CPA āāÆ Search works best as part of an integrated approach 3. Some organizations may need to Walk before they Run āāÆ Start with ļ¬xed weight attribution models āāÆ Migrate to algorithmic when ready to take the next step Copyrighted material may not be shared. Ā© Encore Media Metrics 2013 @stevelatham
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Chicago Ā | Ā November
Ā 4ā7, Ā 2013 Ā | Ā #SESCHI Ā | Ā @SESConf Ā Ā Ā For More on Attribution ā¢āÆ POV: āWhich Approach is Best?ā (Adotas): http://bit.ly/L1eLty ā¢āÆ Crossing the Chasm: the year of Attribution (Econsultancy): http://bit.ly/CrossingAttChasm ā¢āÆ Demystifying Attribution (Adotas): http://bit.ly/L1eLty ā¢āÆ PhD Targeting & First Grade Metrics (iMedia): http://bit.ly/tyjrWk ā¢āÆ Five Forces Driving Attribution (MediaPost): http://bitly.com/iyOLpT ā¢āÆ Video: āExplaining Attributionā (via @creatorbase) http://bit.ly/nyakk6 Copyrighted material may not be shared. Ā© Encore Media Metrics 2013 @stevelatham
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Chicago Ā | Ā November
Ā 4ā7, Ā 2013 Ā | Ā #SESCHI Ā | Ā @SESConf Ā Ā Ā Contact Info Encore Media Metrics Steve Latham, Founder and CEO 1633 Broadway, 5th Floor New York, NY 10019 W: 646.820.1006 http://EncoreMetrics.com Copyrighted material may not be shared. Ā© Encore Media Metrics 2013 Steve@EncoreMetrics.com @SteveLatham @EncoreMetrics http://Attribution101.com @stevelatham
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Chicago Ā | Ā November
Ā 4ā7, Ā 2013 Ā | Ā #SESCHI Ā | Ā @SESConf Ā Ā Ā About the Presenter Steve Latham is the founder and CEO of Encore Media Metrics http://encoremetrics.com which helps marketers optimize spend through better analytics. Serving leading brands and agencies around the globe, Encore s ondemand solution enables clients to achieve deeper insights into campaign performance while lowering the cost and complexity of online measurement. Steve is an accomplished speaker and thought leader, speaking frequently at industry events including Ad-Tech, OMMA Global, Search Engine Strategies, IAB Mixx, eMetrics Summit and others. Steve s articles have been published by Adotas, MediaPost, Online Media Daily, iMedia Connection, Marketing News and Bizjournals.com. Steve has been quoted in B2B Magazine, PR Week, Fortune and CNN.com. Steve received an MBA from Harvard Business School and a BBA from the University of Oklahoma. You can read Steve s blog at http://Attribution101.com http://twitter.com/stevelatham www.linkedin.com/in/stevelatham Copyrighted material may not be shared. Ā© Encore Media Metrics 2013 @stevelatham
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