These are the slides presented at the Economic Forum Webinar on 14 February 2022.

1. Economic Forum
14 February 2022
@ONSfocus #economicforum slido #38317

2. Economic Forum
Chair – Grant Fitzner
Chief Economist
Office for National Statistics
@GrantFitzner
@ONSfocus #economicforum slido #38317

3. Agenda
09:30 – 09:35 Welcome and introduction – Grant Fitzner,
Chief Economist, ONS
09:35 – 09:50 State of the UK Economy – Sam Beckett,
Second Permanent Secretary, ONS
09:50 – 10:05 The costs and benefits of homeworking
– James Probert, ONS
10:05 – 10:25 Q&A
10:25 – 10:30 Closing remarks
#economicforum
@ONSfocus slido #38317

4. State of the UK Economy
Sam Beckett
Second Permanent Secretary |
Joint Head of the GES
Office for National Statistics
@ONSfocus #economicforum Slido #38317

5. UK GDP fell by 0.2% in December 2021
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Spain Germany Italy UK Canada France US
Per
cent
GDP relative to pre-coronavirus levels (2019 Q4)
Source: Office for National Statistics Source: OECD
-0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3
Human health and social work activities
Information and communication
Professional scientific and technical activities
Transport and storage
Real estate activites
Financial and insurance activities
Other service activities
Activities of households as employers
Administrative and support service activities
Education
Arts entertainment and recreation
Public administration and defence
Accommodation and food service activites
Wholesale and retail
Percentage points
Contribution to the monthly decline in
December 2021 services output
slido #38317
@ONSfocus #economicforum

6. Timely indicators point to some recovery in January
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
February
2020
=
100
UK Spending on Credit and Debit Cards
Aggregate Delayable
Social Staple
Work Related
Source: Office for National Statistics Source: Bank of England
80
85
90
95
100
105
May 20 Jul 20 Sep 20 Nov 20 Jan 21 Mar 21 May 21 Jul 21 Sep 21 Nov 21 Jan 22 Mar 22
2019
=
100
BICS Net Turnover and adjusted GDP
BICS turnover balance GDP*
slido #38317
@ONSfocus #economicforum

7. Inflation reached a near 30 year high in December 2021
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Jan 06 Jan 09 Jan 12 Jan 15 Jan 18 Jan 21
Per
cent
CPI for Low and High Income Households
Low-income households
High-income households
CPI Inflation Forecast
Source: Office for National Statistics
Source: Bank of England
slido #38317
@ONSfocus #economicforum

8. Global inflation has picked up over 2021
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Canada France Germany Italy Japan United
Kingdom
United
States
Per
cent
Annual inflation in G7 countries
2020
2021
0 20 40 60 80 100
I have lost my job or stopped working
My hours of work have reduced
Other
My income or earnings have reduced
The price of my public transport has
increased
My rent or mortgage costs have increased
The price of my fuel has increased
My gas or electricity bills have increased
The price of my food shop has increased
Per cent
Over the last month, for what reasons has your
cost of living increased?
Source: Office for National Statistics Source: OECD
slido #38317
@ONSfocus #economicforum

9. There has been a tightening in the labour market
66
68
70
72
74
76
78
0
5
10
15
20
25
Sep-Nov
2006
Sep-Nov
2009
Sep-Nov
2012
Sep-Nov
2015
Sep-Nov
2018
Sep-Nov
2021
Per
cent
Per
cent
Employment, unemployment & inactivity rates
Unemployment
Inactivity
Employment
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Jun-Aug
2002
Jun-Aug
2005
Jun-Aug
2008
Jun-Aug
2011
Jun-Aug
2014
Jun-Aug
2017
Jun-Aug
2020
Number of unemployed persons per vacancy
Source: Office for National Statistics
Source: Office for National Statistics
slido #38317
@ONSfocus #economicforum

10. Expected pay settlements have risen this year
UK pay settlements and expectations
Source: Bank of England Source: Office for National Statistics
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Jan-Mar
2019
Apr-Jun
2019
Jul-Sep
2019
Oct-Dec
2019
Jan-Mar
2020
Apr-Jun
2020
Jul-Sep
2020
Oct-Dec
2020
Jan-Mar
2021
Apr-Jun
2021
Jul-Sept
2021
Per
cent
Average weekly earnings annual growth rates
Regular pay (nominal)
Regular pay (real)
slido #38317
@ONSfocus #economicforum

11. Summary
• UK GDP fell in December, though real time indicators point to
some recovery in early 2022
• Inflation continues to rise; the Bank of England forecast it to peak
in April, reflecting recent movements in energy prices
• The labour market continues to tighten, while expected pay
settlements for the year ahead have risen
slido #38317
@ONSfocus #economicforum

12. Homeworking and spending
during the COVID-19
pandemic, UK: April 2020 to
January 2022
James Probert
Strategic Analysis Unit (SAU)
Analytical Hub
Office for National Statistics
@ONSfocus #economicforum slido #38317

13. Why homeworking?
Pre-pandemic
• 12.4% homeworkers
Source: APS, Jan - Dec 2019
During pandemic
• 49% homeworkers in June 2020
Source: OPN, 11/06/2021 - 14/06/2021
Post-pandemic
• 87% of workers want hybrid working
Source: OPN, 11/08/2021 - 15/08/2021
• 3 - 49% of businesses plan to use
homeworking
Source: BICS, 24/1/2022 - 06/02/2022
Source: Opinions and Lifestyle Survey (OPN) covering the period March 2020 to January 2022.
slido #38317
@ONSfocus #economicforum

14. Individual spending
Source: Opinions and Lifestyle Survey (OPN) covering the period 19 January 2022 to 30 January 2022.
• 18% report spending more
• 28% report spending the same
• 46% report spending less
• 8% are unsure
Since working from home more as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19)
pandemic, do you feel you are spending more or less money?
slido #38317
@ONSfocus #economicforum

15. Differences in spending areas
• 86% reported spending more on utility bills
• 24% reported spending more on internet
• 50% reported spending less on fuel and
parking for commuting
• 40% reported spending less on commuting
using public transport
Source: Opinions and Lifestyle Survey (OPN) covering the period 19 January 2022 to 30 January 2022.
Difference in the proportion of home workers who spent more and less
on different areas as a result of working from home, Great Britain, 19 to
30 January 2022
slido #38317
#economicforum
@ONSfocus

16. Homeworking and spending by characteristic
Spending less
• 48% of employees
• 32% of self-employed
Spending the same
• 26% of employees
• 49% of self-employed
Source: Opinions and Lifestyle Survey (OPN) covering the period 19 January 2022 to 30 January 2022.
Proportion of home workers who have seen their spending change since the
pandemic, by employment status, Great Britain, 19 to 30 January 2022
slido #38317
@ONSfocus #economicforum

17. Homeworking and spending by characteristic
Spending more on utilities
• 92% of renters
• 77% homeowners
• 86% paying off their mortgage
Source: Opinions and Lifestyle Survey (OPN) covering the period 19 January 2022 to 30 January 2022.
Proportion of home workers spending less and more on utilities, by
housing tenure, Great Britain, 19 to 30 January 2022
slido #38317
@ONSfocus #economicforum

18. Homeworking, restrictions, movement and spending
Source: Opinions and Lifestyle Survey (OPN), OxCGRT Stringency Index, Aggregate CHAPS spending indicator, Google Mobility Workplace visits
slido #38317
@ONSfocus #economicforum

19. Homeworking, restrictions, movement and spending
Source: Opinions and Lifestyle Survey (OPN), OxCGRT Stringency Index, Aggregate CHAPS spending indicator, Google Mobility Workplace visits
slido #38317
@ONSfocus #economicforum

20. Key messages
• 46% of home-based workers said they spent less as a result of homeworking
because of the COVID-19 pandemic
• 86% of homeworkers reported spending more on utility bills
• 50% reported spending less on fuel and parking for commuting, and 40% reported
spending less on commuting using public transport
• The percentage of people homeworking and workplace footfall are correlated with
the stringency of COVID-19 restrictions, and with aggregate spending on debit
and credit cards
slido #38317
@ONSfocus #economicforum

21. Further analysis on homeworking and hybrid working
• Differentiate between home and hybrid working
• Variability between geographies
• Variability between demographics
• Loss vs substitution of spending
slido #38317
@ONSfocus #economicforum

22. Closing remarks
Grant Fitzner
Chief Economist
Office for National Statistics
@GrantFitzner
@ONSfocus #economicforum slido #38317

23. Forthcoming ONS economic analysis
• 14 February 2022: Homeworking and spending during the coronavirus (COVID-19)
pandemic, UK: April 2020 to January 2022 (Publication)
• 16 February 2022: Consumer price inflation, UK: January 2022
• 17 February 2022: Understanding the business impacts of local and national restrictions, UK:
February 2022
• 1 March 2022: Changes in non-British nationals in the UK labour market during coronavirus
(COVID-19) pandemic and EU Exit periods
All information on upcoming analysis can be found via the ONS website
slido #38317
@ONSfocus #economicforum

24. Consultations
ONS Consultation: Subnational Gross Value-Added (GVA) Statistics
We want your views on a new method for measuring economic output at a local level. The aim is
to publish annual subnational gross value added (GVA) data that offers the flexibility for statistics
users to define and build their own geographies using the building blocks we produce. This is
currently an experimental project, and we would welcome your feedback in order to develop it
further.
Please support this important work by responding here. The consultation is live until
7 March 2021
More information, including on how to respond, can be found on our consultation and
stakeholder participation hub: https://consultations.ons.gov.uk
slido #38317
@ONSfocus #economicforum

25. Dates for your diary
• 17 February 2022 – Health Data Science Seminar Series - Dr Adam Steventon,
Director of Data Analytics at the Health Foundation who will be
presenting on “Using health data to improve outcomes for patients”
• 22 February 2022 – ESCoE Human Capital Workshop: Exploring Skills and Education
• 21 March 2022 – ONS Economic Forum
• 11 April 2022 – Economic Data Science Seminar Series – Dr Stephen Hansen,
Associate Professor of Economics, Imperial College London
• 25-27 May 2022 – ESCoE Conference on Economic Measurement – University
of Strathclyde, Glasgow
Further details on the above events will be published at ons.gov.uk/economicevents
slido #38317
@ONSfocus #economicforum

26. Thank you for attending the
Economic Forum
You can keep up to date on all up coming events via
ons.gov.uk/economicevents
If you would like to ask a question or provide any feedback, please do so
via economic.engagement@ons.gov.uk