Economic Forum in Belfast

ONS Economic Forum
Email: ONS.economic.forum@ons.gov.uk
Twitter: @ONS
#ONSeconomy
WIFI code for Parliament Building: NIAssembly
1
ONS Economic Forum
21 September 2016

ONS Economic Forum – September 2016
09.45 Introduction & Welcome
10.00 An overview of the UK Economic
Situation
10.40 Economic Statistics for Northern Ireland
11.10 Refreshment Break
11.50 Productivity and Labour Market
12.30 Close
2
Agenda
ONS Economic Forum
21 September 2016

Introduction and welcome
Joe Grice
Director and Chief Economist
3
ONS Economic Forum
21 September 2016

An overview of the UK Economic Situation
Darren Morgan
National Accounts Coordination
ONS Economic Forum
21 September 2016
4

Before-EU Referendum Result
Blue and Pink Book 2016
5
ONS Economic Forum
21 September 2016

GDP Current Price (£m): previously published v Blue Book 2016
Levels revised up, average per year:
1997-2009 +£49.6bn (4.3%), 2010-2014 +£9.1bn (0.6%), 2015 +£4.9bn (0.3%)
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
1600000
1800000
2000000
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Second estimate of GDP: Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2016 Final Blue Book 2016 Current Price Estimates
6

Real GDP (%): previously published v Blue Book 2016
1998 to 2015: average growth unrevised at +2.0%
-5.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Revision Second estimate of GDP: Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2016 Final Blue Book 2016 Chained Volume Measure Estimates

Real GDP, Seas. Adj. (%): previously published v Blue Book 2016
Q2 1997 to Q1 2016: average quarterly growth rate unrevised at +0.5%
average quarterly revision -0.01 percentage points, absolute revision 0.10 percentage points
-3.0%
-2.5%
-2.0%
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
1997Q2 1998Q2 1999Q2 2000Q2 2001Q2 2002Q2 2003Q2 2004Q2 2005Q2 2006Q2 2007Q2 2008Q2 2009Q2 2010Q2 2011Q2 2012Q2 2013Q2 2014Q22015 Q2
Revision Second estimate of GDP: Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2016 Final 2016 Chained Volume Measure Estimates8

GDP economic downturn and
recovery
• 2008/09 downturn: same length and similar depth, was -6.1%, now -6.3%
• strength of recovery:
• GDP pre-downturn peak re-attained in Q3 2013, one quarter later
• in Q1 2016: GDP 7.0% above pre-downturn peak, was 7.2%
• in Q1 2016: GDP per capita 0.9% above pre-downturn peak, was 1.1%
9

Balance of Payments: Current Account (£m): previously published
v Pink Book 2016
-120000
-100000
-80000
-60000
-40000
-20000
0
20000
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Revision Final Blue Book 2016 Current Price Estimates Quarter 4 (Oct-Dec) 2015 Current Price Estimates 10

Balance of Payments: Net International Investment Position (£m):
previously published v Pink Book 2016
-500000
-400000
-300000
-200000
-100000
0
100000
200000
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Revision Final Blue Book 2016 Current Price Estimates Quarter 4 (Oct-Dec) 2015 Current Price Estimates
11

Household and NPISH saving ratio (%): previously published v Blue
Book 2016
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Revision Final Blue Book 2016 Current Price Estimates Quarter 4 (Oct-Dec) 2015 Current Price Estimates 12

After-EU Referendum Result
Short Term Indicators
13
ONS Economic Forum
21 September 2016

UK Employment / Unemployment Rate
(aged 16-64,%)
14
Employment rate 74.5% for May – July 2016
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
2007
JUN
2008
JUN
2009
JUN
2010
JUN
2011
JUN
2012
JUN
2013
JUN
2014
JUN
2015
JUN
2016
JUN
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2007
JUN
2008
JUN
2009
JUN
2010
JUN
2011
JUN
2012
JUN
2013
JUN
2014
JUN
2015
JUN
2016
JUN
Unemployment rate 4.9% for May – July 2016

15
771,000 people claiming unemployment related benefits in August 2016
UK Total Claimant Count SA
thousands of people, seasonally adjusted
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2007 JUN 2008 JUN 2009 JUN 2010 JUN 2011 JUN 2012 JUN 2013 JUN 2014 JUN 2015 JUN 2016 JUN

16
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Jan-Mar
2007
Sep-Nov
2007
May-Jul
2008
Jan-Mar
2009
Sep-Nov
2009
May-Jul
2010
Jan-Mar
2011
Sep-Nov
2011
May-Jul
2012
Jan-Mar
2013
Sep-Nov
2013
May-Jul
2014
Jan-Mar
2015
Sep-Nov
2015
May-Jul
2016
752,000 job vacancies for June - August 2016
These estimates exclude the Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing Sector
UK Total Vacancies
thousands of people, seasonally adjusted

UK CPI
(12 Month % change)
17
CPI July 2016 year-on-year growth 0.6%
CPI August 2016 year-on-year growth 0.6%
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2007 JUL 2008 JUL 2009 JUL 2010 JUL 2011 JUL 2012 JUL 2013 JUL 2014 JUL 2015 JUL 2016 JUL

18
UK PPI
(12 Month % Change)
Input PPI August 2016 year-on-year growth
7.6%, compared with a rise of 4.1% in the year
to July 2016
Output PPI August 2016 year-on-year
growth 0.8%, compared with a rise of 0.3% in
the year to July 2016

Index of Production & Index of Manufacturing
chained volume measures, seasonally adjusted
19
Index of Production month-on-month growth +0.1%
Index of Manufacturing month-on-month growth -0.9%
Index 2013=100
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
2007JAN 2008JAN 2009JAN 2010JAN 2011JAN 2012JAN 2013JAN 2014JAN 2015JAN 2016JAN
Index of Production Index of Manufacturing

Index of Construction
chained volume measures, seasonally adjusted
20
Index of Construction month-on-month growth flat
Index 2013=100
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan

Construction - new orders
volume of new orders (£m), constant prices, seasonally adjusted
21
Increased by 8.6% compared with Quarter 1 2016
Increased by 7.5% compared with Quarter 2 2015
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
Q1
2008
Q3
2008
Q1
2009
Q3
2009
Q1
2010
Q3
2010
Q1
2011
Q3
2011
Q1
2012
Q3
2012
Q1
2013
Q3
2013
Q1
2014
Q3
2014
Q1
2015
Q3
2015
Q1
2016
Housing Other work All new work

22
Retail sales August month-on-month fall of 0.2%
Retail sales July month-on-month increase of 1.9%
2013=100
90.0
95.0
100.0
105.0
110.0
115.0
120.0
2013 Oct 2014 Apr 2014 Oct 2015 Apr 2015 Oct 2016 Apr
Retail Sales Index
Chained volume measures, seasonally adjusted

Imports and Exports
£m, seasonally adjusted
23
Increase in exports and a fall in imports
35 000
37 000
39 000
41 000
43 000
45 000
47 000
49 000
51 000
2014
Jul
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2015
Jan
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2016
Jan
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
Exports Imports

Trade Balance
£m, seasonally adjusted
24
Trade balance improved
-6 000
-5 000
-4 000
-3 000
-2 000
-1 000
2014
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2015
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2016
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

Trade Prices
non seasonally adjusted
25
Import and export prices tracking each other … counter intuitive?
2013=100
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
Jun-07
Dec-07
Jun-08
Dec-08
Jun-09
Dec-09
Jun-10
Dec-10
Jun-11
Dec-11
Jun-12
Dec-12
Jun-13
Dec-13
Jun-14
Dec-14
Jun-15
Dec-15
Jun-16
Export Prices Import Prices
UK USA
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
Jun-07
Dec-07
Jun-08
Dec-08
Jun-09
Dec-09
Jun-10
Dec-10
Jun-11
Dec-11
Jun-12
Dec-12
Jun-13
Dec-13
Jun-14
Dec-14
Jun-15
Dec-15
Jun-16
Export Prices Import Prices

Forthcoming publications to watch out
for…
26
Date Release Period
30th September Index of Services July 2016
27th October GDP Preliminary Estimate Quarter 3 2016
25th November Business Investment Preliminary Release Quarter 3 2016
23rd December Quarterly National Accounts Quarter 3 2016
Balance of Payments Quarter 3 2016
Consumer Trends Quarter 3 2016

Blue Book 2017 – Main developments
• Corporate bonds interest payments
• Changes to the source data for Actual rental
• Enhancements to survey data
• Wider product breakdown in acquisitions and disposals of Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF)
• Enhanced detail for Financial corporations
• New data on number of drug users to inform estimates of illegal activities
• New survey sources for education in Trade in services
• More detailed sector breakdown
• Separation of Households and Non-Profit Institutions Serving Households (NPISH)
• More detailed presentation of the Financial corporation section
• Improvements to prices and volume methods after the last base year
27

Economic Statistics for Northern
Ireland
Richard Prothero (ONS)
James Gillan (NISRA)
28
ONS Economic Forum
21 September 2016

Contents
• Presentation of ONS/NISRA data by Richard Prothero
– Economic Output (GVA)
– Household Incomes
– Wellbeing
– Industrial Structure
– Qualifications
– Trade
• Presentation of additional NISRA data by James Gillan
– Economic Output.
– Labour Market
• Future plans for ONS and NISRA by James Gillan

Producing NI economic statistics
• ONS meets inter/national and sub-national obligations
– Access to large across-UK data sources
• NISRA meets additional devolved needs
– Statutory authority to collect business data
• Relationship Governed by:-
– UK Statistics and Registration Services Act (2007)
– UK Concordat on Statistics “The administrations will work
together to ensure the provision of coherent, reliable,
consistent and timely UK-wide statistics”

Northern Ireland has performed less well than the
UK since 2008
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Northern Ireland
Yorkshire and…
North East
North West
Scotland
East of England
West Midlands
Wales
South West
East Midlands
South East
London
Increase in nominal GVA
GVA Growth before and since
Economic Downturn
2008-
2014
2002-
2008
The 2008-2014 data
shows how countries
and English regions
fared through the
downturn and
subsequent recovery.
The 2002-2008 data
shows how the regions
fared in a similar
period prior to the
downturn.
Note: due to the
economic downturn,
annual output in most
countries and regions
reached a temporary
peak in 2008 before
declining in 2009.
Source: ONS

GVA growth in Northern Ireland by area
Source: ONS
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
Belfast Outer Belfast East of
Northern
Ireland
North of
Northern
Ireland
West and South
of Northern
Ireland
Average annual growth in
Nominal Gross Value Added (GVA)
2002-2008
2008-2014

GVA per head
50 70 90 110 130 150 170 190
Wales
North East
Northern Ireland
Yorkshire and The Humber
West Midlands
East Midlands
North West
South West
East of England
Scotland
South East
London
UK=100
Nominal GVA per head, 2014
GVA per head GVA per hour workedSource: ONS

Household Income
In Northern Ireland,
relative performance in
GDHI is similar to
relative performance in
GVA per hour worked.
Source: ONS
60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140
Northern Ireland
North East
Wales
West Midlands
North West
East Midlands
Scotland
South West
East of England
South East
London
UK=100
Gross Disposable Household Incomes per head, 2014

GDHI per head by area 1997-2014
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
UK=100
Gross Disposable Household Income (GDHI) per head, 1997-2014
N Ireland
Outer Belfast
East of Northern Ireland
Belfast
North of Northern Ireland
West and South of Northern
Ireland
Source: ONS

Personal Wellbeing
Source: ONS
How Satisfied are you with your life nowadays?
Where 0 is 'not at all satisfied' and 10 is 'completely satisfied'.
Proportion of residents in each Threshold
Average (Mean)
rating
Low Medium High Very High
0-4 5-6 7-8 9-10
UK 4.6 14.2 52.1 29.2 7.65
Northern Ireland 4.4 12.8 44.0 38.7 7.85
England 4.6 14.3 52.4 28.8 7.64
Wales 5.2 14.4 50.7 29.7 7.63
Scotland 4.4 13.9 52.1 29.6 7.68

Personal Wellbeing
• Analysis on UK data shows health, employment status and
relationship status as important factors related to personal
well-being - but this can’t explain Northern Ireland result.
• Other potential factors
– Country differences - Globally evidence of differences in
responses to wellbeing surveys across countries.
– Expectations – The improved situation post-1998 may be
reflected in ongoing positive expectations.
– High social capital - ONS social capital report showed that within
UK people living in Northern Ireland reported the highest levels
for feelings of belonging to their neighbourhood (73%), that
people around them were willing to help others (80%) and that
the people in their neighbourhood can be trusted (73%).

Population Growth
Since 2008,
Northern Ireland
has seen growth
in both its working
age population
and total
population.
By contrast,
Wales and North-
East England had
a decline in
working age
population
between 2008-
2015.
Source: ONS
-2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%
North East
Wales
North West
Scotland
Northern Ireland
West Midlands
South West
East Midlands
South East
East
London
Population Growth 2008-2015
all ages 16-64 yrs

Industrial Specialisations
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5
Mining and quarrying
Financial and insurance activities
Information and communication
Professional, scientific and technical activities
Administrative and support service activities
Real estate activities
Electricity, gas, steam and air-conditioning supply
Transportation and storage
Accommodation and food service activities
Construction
Arts, entertainment and recreation
Other service activities
Education
Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles
Human health and social work activities
Manufacturing
Water supply; sewerage and waste management
Agriculture, forestry and fishing
Public administration and defence; compulsory social…
Location Quotients, 2014 (based on GVA data)
relative to UK excluding London relative to UKSource: ONS

Qualifications
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
North East
Northern Ireland
West Midlands
North West
East Midlands
East
Wales
South West
South East
Scotland
London
% share of 16-64 year olds
Highest Level of Qualifications, 2015
Level 4
(degree level)
None
Source: ONS
UK =
35.8% Level 4,
9.0% None

Exports of Goods
Expressing
exports as a
share of GVA
gives a guide
as to relative
export
intensity.
Note,
however, this
is not the
same as
saying the
exports were
directly
responsible
for the share
of GVA
shown.
Source: HMRC
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Value of Goods Exports, 2015
(expressed as a percentage of GVA)

Exports of Goods by Industry
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
Other commodities nes
Animal and Vegetable Oils
Mineral Fuels
Crude Materials
Beverages and Tobacco
Manufactured Goods
Miscellaneous Manufactures
Food and Live Animals
Chemicals
Machinery and Transport
Share of Goods Exports by Industry, NI and UK, 2015.
NI UK
Source: HMRC

Exports of Services
Expressing
exports as a
share of GVA
gives a guide
as to relative
export
intensity.
Note,
however, this
is not the
same as
saying the
exports were
directly
responsible
for the share
of GVA
shown.
Source: ONS
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Value of Services Exports, 2014
(expressed as a percentage of GVA)

NI businesses external sales destinations
2011 - 2014
£3.3
£11.4
£3.4
£11.6
£3.7
£12.1
£3.6
£12.7
£2.0 £1.9
£2.2 £2.2
£3.7 £4.0
£4.1 £4.0
2011 2012 2013 2014
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Sales/£billions
GB sales
ROW Sales
REU Sales
ROI Sales
Source: NISRA

The local perspective
Dr. James Gillan
NISRA Economic and Labour Market Statistics
45

Comparison of NI Composite Economic Index (NICEI)
with UK, Scotland & ROI GDP (Q1 2016)
(2012=100)
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
145
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Index(2012=100)
NI Composite Economic Index UK GDP Scotland GDP ROI GDP
ROI growth from Q4 2014 to Q1 2015 = 20.3%
Note that the NICEI is not
directly equivalent to GDP
46
Source: NI Composite Economic Index, ONS Quarterly National Accounts,
Scottish Government Quarterly National Accounts , CSO Ireland Quarterly
National Accounts

Northern Ireland (NI) experienced the sharpest fall and
slowest recovery compared to Scotland & the UK as a whole
(2012 = 100)
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Index(2012=100)
Comparison of NICEI with UK, Scotland GDP (to Q1 2016)
NI Composite Economic Index UK GDP Scotland GDP
NI peak to
trough = -10.6%
Scotland peak to
trough = -4.0%
UK peak to
trough = -6.3%
47
Source: NI Composite Economic Index, ONS Quarterly
National Accounts, Scottish Government Quarterly National
Accounts

105.8
110.2
110.8
110.9
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
112
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Index(2002=100) NI vs UK total employee jobs (2002-2016)
UK
Northern Ireland
Source: NISRA Quarterly Employment Survey (NI), ONS (UK)

110.4
99.2
112.6
116.1
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
112
114
116
118
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Index(2002=100)
Public
Private
In June 2016, the NI public sector made
up 28% of all employee jobs and the
Source: NISRA Quarterly Employment Survey (NI)
Index of Northern Ireland public and private sector
employee jobs

50
-25,000
-20,000
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
MANUFACTURING
CONSTRUCTION
SERVICES
OTHER IND.
ALL INDUSTRIES
Annual change in employee jobs (2008-2016)

NI Sectoral change in employee jobs – downturn (2008-2012)
51
-25000 -20000 -15000 -10000 -5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000
Health activities
Office administrative activities
Computer programming, consultancy & related activities
Activities of head offices
Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products
Crop and animal production, hunting & related activities
Activities auxiliary to financial services & insurance
Sports activities,amusement & recreation
Waste collection activities
Repair & installation of machinery & equipment
Wholesale trade, except of motor vehicles/cycles
Civil engineering
Education
Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products
Social work activities without accommodation
Employment activities
Public administration & defence
Retail trade, except of motor vehicles & motorcycles
Construction of buildings
Specialised construction activities
Change 2008-2012

NI Sectoral change in employee jobs – recovery (2012-2016)
52
-25000 -20000 -15000 -10000 -5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000
Public administration & defence
Financial activities excl. Insurance/pension funding
Manufacture of electrical equipment
Manufacture of beverages & tobacco products
Postal and courier activities
Scientific research & development
Civil engineering
Other manufacturing
Manufacture of rubber & plastic products
Retail trade, except of motor vehicles/cycles
Manufacture of food products
Activities of head offices
Legal and accounting activities
Computer programming & consultancy activities
Food & beverage service activities
Health activities
Change 2012-2016

NI Sectoral change in employee jobs (2002-2016)
-25000 -20000 -15000 -10000 -5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000
Public administration and defence
Manufacture of wearing apparel
Manufacture of textiles
Construction of buildings
Manufacture of computer products
Postal and courier activities
Manufacture of rubber & plastic products
Manufacture of non-metallic mineral products
Manufacture of electrical equipment
Legal and accounting activities
Services to buildings & landscape activities
Food & beverage service activities
Computer programming & consultancy activities
Retail trade, except of motor vehicles/cycles
Health activities
Change 2002-2016

109.1
113.1
110.5
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
112
114
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Index(2002=100)
Unadjusted at June each year
Index of NI full-time and part-time employee jobs
NI Full-Time
NI Part-Time
NI Total Jobs
In June 2016, NI full-time jobs made up 66%
of total jobs and part-time jobs made up
34% of total jobs.

-60,000
-40,000
-20,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total Emp
Source: LFS
Change in employees and self employed from
Jan-Mar 2008
(Not seasonally adjusted, May-Jun 2016

-60,000
-40,000
-20,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Male FT
Total Emp
Source: LFS
Jan-Mar 2008

-60,000
-40,000
-20,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Male PT
Male FT
Total Emp
Source: LFS
Jan-Mar 2008

-60,000
-40,000
-20,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Female FT
Male PT
Male FT
Total Emp
Source: LFS
Jan-Mar 2008

-60,000
-40,000
-20,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Female PT
Female FT
Male PT
Male FT
Total Emp
Source: LFS
Jan-Mar 2008

-60,000
-40,000
-20,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
S/E
Female
PT
Female FT
Male PT
Source: LFS
Jan-Mar 2008

0%
1%
1%
2%
2%
3%
3%
4%
4%
Rate
Percent of people in employment on a “zero hours
contract”, UK Regions
Source: Labour Force Survey, April – June 2016
61

Programme for Government Framework –
Indicators & Measures
62
Indicator Measure
LabourMarket
17. Reduce economic inactivity Economic inactivity rate excluding students
32. Increase economic opportunities for our most
deprived communities
The employment rate of 16-64 year olds by deprivation
quintile
33. Reduce underemployment
% of people working part time who would like to work more
hours
14. Improve the skills profile of the population
The proportion of the workforce in employment with
qualifications at level 1 and above, level 2 and above, level 3
and above, and level 4 and above
16. Increase the proportion of people in work Seasonally adjusted employment rate (16-64)
18. Increase the proportion of people working in
good jobs
A Good Jobs Index
34. Improve regional balance of economic
prosperity through increased employment
Employment rate by geographic area
Economy
20. Increase the size of the economy
Private Sector NICEI (Northern Ireland Composite Economic
Index)
21. Increase the competitiveness of the economy External sales
22. Increase innovation in our economy Regional innovation ranking
42. Increase quality of life for people with disabilities Average life satisfaction score of people with disabilities

Expenditure per capita on Final
Demand components (2012)
63
15,278
16,993
16,035
6,660
5,430
5,893
2,072
4,247
4,119
NI
UK
Scotland
Household Final
Consumption Expenditure
Government Final
Consumption Expenditure
Gross Capital
Formation
Source: NISRA, ONS & Scottish Government
Supply-Use Tables

NISRA releases & future plans
• Upcoming NISRA releases :-
– Labour Market bulletin (monthly)
– NI Composite Economic Index - Q2 2016 (Oct)
– Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings 2016 (Oct)
– Annual Business Inquiry / Exports 2015 (Dec)
• Future NISRA plans
– Digital Economy Bill / use of new sources
– Data Science
65

ONS releases & future plans
• Upcoming ONS releases :-
– Labour Market bulletin (monthly)
– Regional GVA (Dec)
– Regional / Sub-regional Productivity (Jan)
• Future ONS plans
– Household Final Consumption Expenditure
– Short Term Indicators for English Regions
– Flexible Geographies
66

ONS Economic Forum
Twitter: @ONS
#ONSeconomy
67
ONS Economic Forum
21 September 2016

The labour market and productivity
Dr Philip Wales
Head of Productivity
68
ONS Economic Forum
21 September 2016

Labour market and productivity
• Headline labour market quantities data
• Key differences of the NI labour market
• Earnings in the NI and UK labour markets
• Productivity
69

The labour market in Northern Ireland
70
43.0%
13.8%
3.5%
39.4%
0
250
500
750
1000
1250
1500
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
Thousands
Full time Employment Part time Employment Unemployed Inactive
Labour market status of the NI population – all 16+
Source: Labour Force Survey

Unemployment rate
71
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
United Kingdom Northern Ireland%
Note: Headline unemployment rate (among those aged 16+)

Employment rate
72
58
60
62
64
66
68
70
72
74
76
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Note: Headline employment rate (among those aged 16-64)

Inactivity rate
73
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Note: Headline inactivity rate (among those aged 16-64)

Relative to the UK, Northern Ireland’s labour market currently has a:
• A higher rate of inactivity
• A lower employment rate
• Similar unemployment rates
These are broadly consistent with historical trends: over the lifetime of
the LFS, NI’s employment and inactivity rates have been persistently 4
percentage points weaker than in the UK as a whole.
74

– 1. Inactivity
– 2. Employment
• Productivity
75

Key features of NI labour market
76
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Inactivity – Northern Ireland & the UK
Note: Headline inactivity rate (among those aged 16-64)

77
Inactivity – by age group (2006 Q2)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70
Rolling five year age groups

0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70
78
Inactivity – by age group (2016 Q2)

79
Contributions to inactivity by Reason, Northern Ireland – by age group (2016 Q2)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
18 23 28 33 38 43 48 53 58 63
Looking after the family LT sick/disabled Other Total
%
Source: Labour Force Survey,
Note: ’Other’ includes retired individuals, students and other reasons

80
Inactivity by age – UK vs Northern Ireland (Q2 2016)
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69
Percentage points
Total
Rolling five year age groupsSource: Labour Force Survey,

81
Contributions to inactivity by age – UK vs Northern Ireland (Q2 2016)
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69
Percentage points
Other Total

82
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69
Percentage points
Long-term sick as disabled (would not like work)
Other
Total

83
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69
Percentage points
Looking after the family (would not like work)
Long-term sick as disabled (would not like work)
Other
Total

– 1. Inactivity
– 2. Employment
• Productivity
84

Employment rate
85
58
60
62
64
66
68
70
72
74
76
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Note: Headline employment rate (among those aged 16-64)

86
Employment rate – by age (year to 2016 Q2)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58
United Kingdom Northern Ireland% Employed

87
Full time share of employment
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
Rest of the UK Northern Ireland% Full-time

88
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
Rest of the UK Northern Ireland% Part-time
Part time share of employment

• Productivity
89

Earnings
90
Median earnings by region: 2005, 2010, 2015, UK=100
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
London
South East
Scotland
East
North East
North West
South West
West Midlands
Yorkshire and The…
Northern Ireland
Wales
East Midlands
2015
2010
2005
UK
Source: Annual Survey of Hours & Earnings

Earnings
91
Distribution of earnings: 1997
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Density, %
Gross Hourly Earnings (+/-20 pence), £

Earnings
92
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
£3.00 £5.00 £7.00 £9.00 £11.00£13.00£15.00£17.00£19.00£21.00£23.00£25.00£27.00£29.00
Northern Ireland, 1997
United Kingdom, 1997
Density, %
Gross Hourly Earnings (+/- 20 pence), £

Earnings
93
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Density, %

Earnings
94
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Density, %

Earnings
95
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Density, %

Earnings
96
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Density, %

Earnings
97
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Density, %

Earnings
98
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Density, %

Earnings
99
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Density, %

Earnings
100
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Density, %

Earnings
101
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Density, %

Earnings
102
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Density, %

Earnings
103
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Density, %

Earnings
104
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Density, %

Earnings
105
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Density, %

Earnings
106
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Density, %

Earnings
107
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Density, %

Earnings
108
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Density, %

Earnings
109
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Density, %

Earnings
110
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Density, %

Earnings
111
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Density, %

Earnings
112
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
£3.00 £5.00 £7.00 £9.00 £11.00£13.00£15.00£17.00£19.00£21.00£23.00£25.00£27.00£29.00
Northern Ireland, 2015
United Kingdom, 2015
Density, %
Gross Hourly Earnings (+/- 20 pence), £

• Productivity
113

Productivity
114
Regional Productivity – nominal terms
75 80 85 90 95 100
West and South of Northern
Ireland
North of Northern Ireland
East of Northern Ireland
Outer Belfast
Belfast
Northern Ireland
GVA per job filled, 2014, UK=100 GVA per job filled, 2014, UK=100
Source: ONS sub-regional productivity estimates
0 50 100 150
Wales
North East
Northern Ireland
West Midlands
East Midlands
North West
South West
Scotland
East of England
South East
London

Productivity
115
Regional Productivity – distribution of firm-level labour productivity
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
-10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Density
Productivity (£ thousands per worker)
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
-10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Density
Productivity (£ thousands per worker)
2008
2011
2014
Northern Ireland Great Britain
Source: Annual Business Inquiry, Annual Business Survey
Note: Includes Private, non-financial firms.

Productivity
116
Regional Productivity – composition of the top 10% of firms by productivity
48.3% 46.3% 50.5%
13.9% 14.6%
16.6%
12.8% 13.2%
11.8%
17.2% 18.7%
15.9%
7.7% 7.2% 5.2%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2008 2011 2014
29.0%
35.0% 32.1%
7.4%
5.9% 8.1%
27.7%
25.4% 25.6%
28.1% 21.5% 24.8%
7.8%
12.1% 9.5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2008 2011 2014
Source: Annual Business Inquiry, Annual Business Survey

Productivity
117
Regional Productivity – intra-industry distribution of productivity
-20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200
Productivity, £ thousands
-20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200
0 50 100 150 200
Productivity, £ thousands
Source: Annual Business Inquiry, Annual Business Survey, ONS analysis
Manufacturing
Construction
Whole. & retail of mot. vehicles
Accomm & food services
Transport & storage
Info & comms
Real estate
Prof., Sci., & Tech. activities
Admin & support activities

• UK labour market is recovering strongly from the economic downturn: labour
market in NI appears to have a similar headline unemployment experience, but
has been weaker in terms of its inactivity and employment rate performance
• The UK’s income distribution has changed markedly over the last ten years, with a
growing concentration of workers at or around the national minimum wage. This is
broadly consistent with the experience in Northern Ireland – although the
prevalence of low pay is more marked here than in the UK as a whole
• The average level of nominal productivity in Northern Ireland is notably lower than
in the UK average. However, there are a range of firm-level performances both
within and between industries in NI, mirroring the range for the rest of GB.
118

Questions
119
ONS Economic Forum
21 September 2016

ONS Economic Forum
Twitter: @ONS
#ONSeconomy
120
ONS Economic Forum
21 September 2016

Annex
121
ONS Economic Forum
21 September 2016

122
Skills (year to 2008 Q2)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Degree or
equivalent
Higher
education
A-level or
equivalent
GCSE A*-C Other
qualification
No
qualification
Don't Know
Northern Ireland Rest of the UK
Educational level
% with given educational level

123
Skills (year to 2016 Q2)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Degree or
equivalent
Higher
education
A-level or
equivalent
GCSE A*-C Other
qualification
No
qualification
Don't Know
Educational level
% with given educational level

124
Industrial mix (year to 2008 Q2)
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
Agriculture
Manufacturing
Electricity and gas
Water supply
Construction
Wholesale and retail trade
Accommodation and food
Financial services
Professional services
Support admin
Public admin
Education
Health
Arts and entertainment
Industry (main job)
% in given industry

125
Industrial mix (year to 2016 Q2)
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
Agriculture
Manufacturing
Electricity and gas
Water supply
Construction
Wholesale and retail trade
Accommodation and food
Financial services
Professional services
Support admin
Public admin
Education
Health
Arts and entertainment
Industry (main job)
% in given industry

Earnings
126
Distribution of earnings growth: 2015
0
5
10
15
20
25
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
Density, %
Growth in Gross Hourly Earnings (+/-0.5 percentage points), %

127
Prevalence of self-employment
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
Rest of the UK Northern Ireland%Self-employed

Levels of inactivity by age
128
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63
Looking after the family
LT sick/disabled
Other
Total
Average of rolling five year age groups

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