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Preparing for the Future
of Artificial Intelligence (AI)
October 6, 2017
https://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/preparing-for-...
TED Arai Todai Robot
10/6/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 2
Cost of Digital Workers:
Narrow (Petascale) and Broad (Exascale)
• Moore’s Law can be
thought of as lowering
costs by 1000...
GPD/Employee
10/6/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 4
Leaderboards Framework
AI Progress Leaderboards - Benchmark Framework
Perceive World Develop Self Build Relationships Fill...
Questions
• What is the timeline for solving AI and IA?
• Who are the leaders driving AI progress?
• What will the biggest...
The Past
• The Dartmouth
Conference of
1956[39] was
organized by Marvin
Minsky, John
McCarthy and two
senior scientists:
C...
AI Trends
10/6/2017
© IBM Cognitive Opentech Group (COG)
8
Dota 2
“Deep Learning” for
“AI Pattern Recognition”
depends on ...
AI Leaders
• Who is winning?
• Regions China vs USA vs EU vs ROW
• Companies Microsoft vs Google vs IBM
• Leaderboards
• S...
AI to IA Timeline: Hard unsolved AI problems
• 2012-2019 AI Pattern Recognition and
Learning from Massive Labeled Data
• S...
AI Benefits
• Access to expertise
• “Insanely great” labor productivity for trusted service providers
• Digital workers fo...
AI Risks
• Job Loss
• Shorter term bigger risk
= de-skilling
• Super-intelligence
• Shorter term bigger risk
= bad actors
...
Other Technologies: Bigger impact?
• Augmented Reality (AR)/
Virtual Reality (VR)
• Game worlds
grow-up
• Blockchain/
Secu...
Stakeholders
• Individuals
• Businesses and
other Organizations
• Industries
• Regions:
Cities, States,
Nations
10/6/2017 ...
Prepare
• Open AI code + data + models
+ stacks + community
• Ethical conduct
• Learn 3 R’s of IBM’s Cognitive
Opentech Gr...
Cupertino Teens
• IBM Watson on Bluemix
10/6/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 16
AI for NLP
entity identificati...
Courses
• 2015
• “How to build a cognitive system for Q&A task.”
• 9 months to 40% question answering accuracy
• 1-2 years...
10/6/2017
© IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide
accelerating regional development
18
10/6/2017
© IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide
accelerating regional development
19
Future of Skills
Future-Ready T-Shapes
10/6/2017
© IBM UPWard 2016
20
In Summary
10/6/2017
© IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide
accelerating regional development
21
“A service ...
IBM-MIT $240M over 10 year AI mission
10/6/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 22
10/6/2017
© IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide
accelerating regional development
23
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Preparing for ai futures 20171006 v16

  1. 1. Preparing for the Future of Artificial Intelligence (AI) October 6, 2017 https://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/preparing-for-ai-futures-20171006-v16 10/6/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 1
  2. 2. TED Arai Todai Robot 10/6/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 2
  3. 3. Cost of Digital Workers: Narrow (Petascale) and Broad (Exascale) • Moore’s Law can be thought of as lowering costs by 1000 every 20 years, and a million every 40 years • AI Pattern Recognition • Narrow AI (Fast) • Petascale • AI Reasoning • Broad AI (Slow) • Exascale 310/6/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 2080204020001960 $1K $1M $1B $1T 206020201980 +/- 10 years $1 Person Average Annual Salary (Living Income) Super Computer Cost Mainframe Cost Smartphone Cost
  4. 4. GPD/Employee 10/6/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 4
  5. 5. Leaderboards Framework AI Progress Leaderboards - Benchmark Framework Perceive World Develop Self Build Relationships Fill Roles Pattern recognition Video understanding Memory Reasoning Social interactions Fluent conversation Assistant & Collaborator Coach & Mediator Speech Actions Declarative Deduction Scripts Speech Acts Tasks Institutions Chime Thumos SQuAD SAT ROC Story ConvAI Images Context Episodic Induction Plans Intentions Summarization Values ImageNet VQA DSTC RALI General-AI Translation Narration Dynamic Abductive Goals Cultures Debate Negotiation WMT DeepVideo Alexa Prize ICCMA AT Learning from Labeled Training Data and Searching (Optimization) Learning by Watching and Reading (Education) Learning by Doing and being Responsible (Exploration) 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 10/6/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 5
  6. 6. Questions • What is the timeline for solving AI and IA? • Who are the leaders driving AI progress? • What will the biggest benefits from AI be? • What are the biggest risks associated with AI, and are they real? • What technologies may have a bigger impact than AI? • What are the implications for stakeholders: individuals, businesses and other organizations, industries, cities, states, and nations? • How should we prepare to get the benefits and avoid the risks? 10/6/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 6
  7. 7. The Past • The Dartmouth Conference of 1956[39] was organized by Marvin Minsky, John McCarthy and two senior scientists: Claude Shannon and Nathan Rochester of IBM 10/6/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 7
  8. 8. AI Trends 10/6/2017 © IBM Cognitive Opentech Group (COG) 8 Dota 2 “Deep Learning” for “AI Pattern Recognition” depends on massive amounts of “labeled data” and computing power available since ~2012; Labeled data is simply input and output pairs, such as a sound and word, or image and word, or English sentence and French sentence, or road scene and car control settings – labeled data means having both input and output data in massive quantities. For example, 100K images of skin, half with skin cancer and half without to learn to recognize presence of skin cancer.
  9. 9. AI Leaders • Who is winning? • Regions China vs USA vs EU vs ROW • Companies Microsoft vs Google vs IBM • Leaderboards • SQuAD – Question Answering • EFF Measuring AI Progress 10/6/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 9
  10. 10. AI to IA Timeline: Hard unsolved AI problems • 2012-2019 AI Pattern Recognition and Learning from Massive Labeled Data • Speech, image, translation, driverless, games • Chatbots as digital assistants • 2020 Video Understanding • 2021 Episodic Memory • 2022 Learning from Watching • 2023 Commonsense Reasoning ** • 2024 Learning from Doing • 2025 Fluent Conversation • 2026 Learning from Reading • 2027-2035 Cognitive Collaborator and Mediator; Intelligence Augmentation (IA) 10/6/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 10
  11. 11. AI Benefits • Access to expertise • “Insanely great” labor productivity for trusted service providers • Digital workers for healthcare, education, finance, etc. • Better choices • ”Insanely great” collaborations with others on what matters most • AI for IA = Augmented Intelligence and higher value co-creation interactions 10/6/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 11
  12. 12. AI Risks • Job Loss • Shorter term bigger risk = de-skilling • Super-intelligence • Shorter term bigger risk = bad actors 10/6/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 12
  13. 13. Other Technologies: Bigger impact? • Augmented Reality (AR)/ Virtual Reality (VR) • Game worlds grow-up • Blockchain/ Security Systems • Trust and security immutable • Advanced Materials/ Energy Systems • Manufacturing as cheap, local recycling service (utility fog, artificial leaf, etc.) 10/6/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 13
  14. 14. Stakeholders • Individuals • Businesses and other Organizations • Industries • Regions: Cities, States, Nations 10/6/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 14
  15. 15. Prepare • Open AI code + data + models + stacks + community • Ethical conduct • Learn 3 R’s of IBM’s Cognitive Opentech Group (COG) • Read arXiv • Redo with Github • Report with Jupyter notebooks on DSX and/or leaderboards • Improve your skills of rapidly rebuilding from scratch • Build your open code eminence 10/6/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 15 1972 used Punch cards 2016 used IBM Watson Open APIs to win…
  16. 16. Cupertino Teens • IBM Watson on Bluemix 10/6/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 16 AI for NLP entity identification
  17. 17. Courses • 2015 • “How to build a cognitive system for Q&A task.” • 9 months to 40% question answering accuracy • 1-2 years for 90% accuracy, which questions to reject • 2025 • “How to use a cognitive system to be a better professional X.” • Tools to build a student level Q&A from textbook in 1 week • 2035 • “How to use your cognitive mediator to build a startup.” • Tools to build faculty level Q&A for textbook in one day • Cognitive mediator knows a person better than they know themselves • 2055 • “How to manage your workforce of digital workers.” • Most people have 100 digital workers. 10/6/2017 17
  18. 18. 10/6/2017 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 18
  19. 19. 10/6/2017 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 19 Future of Skills
  20. 20. Future-Ready T-Shapes 10/6/2017 © IBM UPWard 2016 20
  21. 21. In Summary 10/6/2017 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 21 “A service science perspective considers the evolving ecology of service system entities, their value co-creation and capability co-elevation interactions, and their capabilities, constraints, rights, and responsibilities.” Cognitive Systems Entities Service Systems Entities With Cognitive Mediators Add Rights & Responsibilities
  22. 22. IBM-MIT $240M over 10 year AI mission 10/6/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 22
  23. 23. 10/6/2017 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 23

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