Ibm welcome and cognitive 20170322 v7

Jim Spohrer (IBM)
San Jose, CA
Wednesday March 22, 2017
http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/ibm-welcome-and-cognitive-20170322-v7
3/22/2017 1
IBM Welcome & Cognitive Future

3/22/2017
© IBM UPWard 2016
2

3/22/2017
© IBM UPWard 2016
3

3/22/2017
© IBM UPWard 2016
4

IBM Research, Patents, Data, Cognitive
3/22/2017
© IBM UPWard 2016
5

3/22/2017
© IBM UPWard 2016
6

Machine
Learning
Natural
Language
Processing
High
Performance
Computing
Knowledge
Representation
and Reasoning
Question
Answering
Unstructured
Information

3/22/2017 Understanding Cognitive Systems 8

Brief History
of AI
• 1956 – Dartmouth Conference
• 1956 – 1981 Micro-Worlds
• 1981 – Japanese 5th Generation
• 1988 – Expert Systems Peak
• 1990 – AI Winter
• 1997 – Deep Blue
• 1997 – 2011 Real-World
• 2011 – Jeopardy! & SIRI
• 2013 – Cognitive Systems Institute
• 2014 – Watson Business Unit &
• True North Brain Chip
• 2015 – “Cognition as a Service”
on IBM Bluemix
3/22/2017
© IBM 2015, IBM Upward University
Programs Worldwide accelerating regional
development
9

Definitions: AI vs IA
3/22/2017
© IBM UPWard 2016
10
AI is Artificial Intelligence, or
intelligence in machines (smart machines)
IA is Intelligence Augmentation, or
people thinking and working together with smart machines.
IA is what IBM calls “Cognitive Computing” and
the smart machines are called “Watson Solutions” or
more generally “Digital Cognitive Systems (Cogs)”
Cognition as a Service (CaaS):
AI building blocks for IA solutions

Augmenting Workers

Startup
Companies

3/22/2017
development
13
Cognitive Mediators
for all people in all roles

Occupations = Many Tasks
3/22/2017
development
14

Watson Discovery Advisor
3/22/2017
development
15
Simonite, T. 2014. Software Mines Science Papers to Make New Discoveries. MIT. November 25, 2014.
URL: http://m.technologyreview.com/news/520461/software-mines-science-papers-to-make-new-discoveries/

User Models
3/22/2017
development
16

$5M Prize
3/22/2017
© IBM UPWard 2016
17

3/22/2017
development
18
I have…
Have you noticed how the building
blocks just keep getting better?

IBM Cloud Bluemix:
Watson APIs are growing…
3/22/2017
© IBM UPWard 2016
19
So far (June 2016), 100,000 faculty and students globally given access

Societal Grand Challenges
3/22/2017
© IBM UPWard 2016
20
Solving these would mean we are smarter,
but would they mean we are wiser?

3/22/2017
© IBM UPWard 2016
21

High School Senior: Anish Krishnan
3/22/2017
© IBM UPWard 2016
22

IBM in Silicon Valley:
From Punch Cards….
3/22/2017
development
23
On August 22, 1943, 105 men, women and children,
among them 43 IBM employees, alighted from a special
train that carried them across the continent to establish
new homes and the new IBM Card Manufacturing Plant
Number 5 at 16th and St. John Streets, San Jose, CA.

3/22/2017
development
24

IBM in Silicon Valley:
To Brain Chips….
3/22/2017
development
25

What types of digital cognitive systems?
• Cognitive Build: Outthink Challenge (250K people)
• Imagine a digital cognitive system to help you do something
important in your personal or professional lives
• Team to design it and advocate for it, and then everyone
votes
• Winners: reduce waste and human suffering, screen for
health issues and safety threats, learn life skills and make
better choices, find what you are looking for, move around
more effectively, provide emotional support, provide IT
support, learn about important public policy goals and make
better choices
• Types: Tool, Assistant, Collaborator, Coach, Mediator

Types
• Tool
• Assistant
• Collaborator
• Coach
• Mediator

Types: Progression of models and capabilities
Task & World Model/
Planning & Decisions
Self Model/
Capacity & Limits
User Model/
Episodic Memory
Institutions Model/
Trust & Social Acts
Tool + - - -
Assistant ++ + - -
Collaborator +++ ++ + -
Coach ++++ +++ ++ +
Mediator +++++ ++++ +++ ++
tool assistant collaborator coach mediator

Build: 10 million minutes of experience

Build:
Hardware < Software < Data < Experience < Transformation

3/22/2017
development
33
I have…
Have you noticed how the building
blocks just keep getting better?

Learning to program:
My first program
3/22/2017
development
34
Early Computer Science Class:
Watson Center at Columbia 1945
Jim Spohrer’s
First Program 1972

3/22/2017
© IBM UPWard 2016
35
Fast Forward 2016:
Consider this…

Microsoft CaptionBot June 19, 2016
3/22/2017
© IBM UPWard 2016
36

Microsoft CaptionBot June 20, 2016
3/22/2017
© IBM UPWard 2016
37

IBM Image Tagging
3/22/2017
© IBM UPWard 2016
38

Courses
2015
– “How to build a cognitive system for Q&A task.”
– 9 months to 40% question answering accuracy
– 1-2 years for 90% accuracy, which questions to reject
2025
– “How to use a cognitive system to be a better professional X.”
– Tools to build a student level Q&A from textbook in 1 week
2035
– “How to use your cognitive mediator to build a startup.”
– Tools to build faculty level Q&A for textbook in one day
– Cognitive mediator knows a person better than they know themselves
2055
– “How to manage your workforce of digital workers.”
– Most people have 100 digital workers.
3/22/2017 39

3/22/2017 40
1955 1975 1995 2015 2035 2055
Can better service help us be wiser?
Cognitive Mediator (2035): Tool, Assistant, Collaborator, Coach

What exists in 2016?
3/22/2017
development
41
360,000 100,000 120,000 60,000 150,000

Partnership for AI formed

3/22/2017
© IBM UPWard 2016
43

3/22/2017
© IBM UPWard 2016
44
What might Reality 2.0 look like?

3/22/2017
development
45

3/22/2017
development
46

How fast is Reality 2.0 approaching?
3/22/2017 47
What might it look like?

Computing: Then, Now, Projected
3/22/2017 48
2035
2055

“The best way to predict the future is to inspire the
next generation of students to build it better”
Digital Natives Transportation Water Manufacturing
Energy Construction ICT Retail
Finance Healthcare Education Government

By 2035, T-Shaped Makers with great
Building Blocks and Cognitive Mediators
3/22/2017 50
Empathy & Teamwork
sector
region/culture
discipline
Depth
Breadth
STEM
Liberal Arts

Reality 2.0 Service Platform:
polite cognitive mediators (CM1,CM2)
do not interrupt people (P1,P2)
3/22/2017
© IBM UPWard 2016
51
Service Platform
CM2
P2
CM1
P1
100x
100x 100x

3/22/2017
development
52

3/22/2017
development
53
Wise Service System:
All entities’ in network
use cognitive mediators
to enhance
value co-creation interactions
Cognitive Mediators:
Cognitive systems
with deep knowledge of both
customer (user) and provider (expert)
as co-creators of win-win value
Entity augmentation boosts both creativity and productivity of interactions

Two assertions
• Machines seem to be getting smarter fast.
– Agree/disagree?
• People do not seem to be getting wiser fast.
– Agree/disagree?
3/22/2017
© IBM UPWard 2016
54
Homo Sapiens means Wise Man: True/False?

IBM Cloud Bluemix:
3/22/2017
© IBM UPWard 2016
55

What is Industry 4.0?
3/22/2017
© IBM UPWard 2016
56

History of the idea: Mirror Worlds
3/22/2017
© IBM UPWard 2016
57

3/22/2017
© IBM UPWard 2016
58
Why is this relevant?

I am still very skeptical…
but tell me more….
3/22/2017
© IBM UPWard 2016
59

3/22/2017
© IBM UPWard 2016
60

Managers: Courage Required….
3/22/2017
© IBM UPWard 2016
61

Talent required, but…
3/22/2017
© IBM UPWard 2016
62

Industry 4.0
3/22/2017
© IBM UPWard 2016
63

CyberPhysical Systems?
3/22/2017
© IBM UPWard 2016
64

Industry 4.0
3/22/2017
© IBM UPWard 2016
65

3/22/2017
© IBM UPWard 2016
66

3/22/2017
© IBM UPWard 2016
67

Yesterday: Servitization
• Rolls Royce: “Power By The Hour”

Tomorrow: Servitization
• Start with any traditional product that is sold to customers
• Make the product part of a smart/wise service system
– Instrument it (sensors) – Internet of Things/Everything
– Set-up an intelligent operation center to monitor all products’
performance across their life-cycles
– Use big data analytics to determine how to improve product
performance, efficiency, maintenance, etc.
– Offer customer the “product-performance-as-a-service” with
financing/Internet of Service
– Customer benefits from cost-savings, predictability
– Provider benefits margin-improvements, predictability
• Every product becomes a platform technology (a vehicle for
service innovation) for innovative university startups

Vision: MMaaRRSS
• Modular Manufacturing as a Regional
Recirculation Service System
– “I am the stuff that will be made into product X for
customer Y.”
– Stuff = Material, Energy, and Information Flows
– Minimize transport costs (for products and waste)
• The Vision: Circular Economy (~4 minutes)

In Summary
3/22/2017
development
71
“A service science
perspective considers
the evolving ecology of
service system entities,
their value co-creation and
capability co-elevation
interactions, and their
capabilities, constraints,
rights, and responsibilities.”
Cognitive Systems
Entities
Service
Systems
Entities With
Cognitive
Mediators
Add Rights &
Responsibilities

3/22/2017
development
72
Explain external
phenomena

3/22/2017
development
73
Explain internal
phenomena

3/22/2017
development
74
Explain
value co-creation
phenomena

3/22/2017
development
75
Physics Chemistry Biology
Neuroscience Psychology Artificial
Intelligence
Engineering Management Public
Policy
Education Design Humanities
Natural Systems
Cognitive Systems
Service Systems

Sciences provide…
• Frameworks for people to ask and answer
questions systematically
• Explanations with instructions on “how to re-do”
3/22/2017
development
76
Kline: Conceptual Foundation of Multidisciplinary Thinking -
“To our children and children’s children,
to whom we elders owe an explanation of the world
that is understandable, realistic, forward-looking, and whole.”
Proenneke:
Alone in the Wilderness -
To do a thorough testing,
should each generation
be required to rapidly rebuild
from scratch?
A re-makers movement?

Some paths to becoming 64x smarter:
Improving learning and performance
• 2x from Learning sciences (methods)
– Better models of concepts
– Better models of learners
• 2x from Learning technology (tools)
– Guided learning paths
– Elimination of “thrashing”
• 2x from Quantity effect (overlaps)
– More you know, faster you go
– Advanced organizers
• 2x from Lifelong learning (time)
– Longer lives and longer careers
– Keeps “learning-mode” activated
• 2x from Early learning (time)
– Start earlier: Challenged-based approach
– STEM-2D in K-12 (SSME+DAPP Design of Smart Service Systems)
• 2x from Cognitive systems (performance support)
– Technology & Infrastructure Interactions
– Organizations & Others Interactions

Next Generation:
Future-Ready T-Shaped Adaptive Innovators
Many disciplines
Many sectors
Many regions/cultures
(understanding & communications)
Deepinonesector
Deepinoneregion/culture
Deepinonediscipline

Future-Ready T-Shapes
3/22/2017
© IBM UPWard 2016
79

Brief History
of AI
1956 – Dartmouth Conference
1956 – 1981 Micro-Worlds
1981 – Japanese 5th Generation
1988 – Expert Systems Peak
1990 – AI Winter
1997 – Deep Blue
1997 – 2011 Real-World
2011 – Jeopardy! & SIRI
2013 – Cognitive Systems Institute
2014 – Watson Business Unit &
True North Brain Chip
2015 – “Cognition as a Service”
on IBM Bluemix
3/22/2017
development
80

Cognitive Assistants for all occupations
are beginning to appear
3/22/2017
development
81

The Maker Movement &
Open Source Ecology
3/22/2017
development
82

3/22/2017
development
83
Future of Skills

T-Shaped “Future Ready” Talent
3/22/2017
© IBM UPWard 2016
84

3/22/2017
© IBM UPWard 2016
85
CSIG

Assisting individuals and organizations
to close their service innovation skills gap
and co-create wiser service systems
empowering employees, customers, citizens
with cognitive mediators
in the collaborative service economy

Dedication: Doug Engelbart
Father of the mouse and
augmentation theory
3/22/2017
development
87

3/22/2017 88
1955 1975 1995 2015 2035 2055
Can better service help us be wiser?
Cognitive Mediator (2035): Tool, Assistant, Collaborator, Coach

But this stuff is still really hard…
3/22/2017
© IBM UPWard 2016
89

3/22/2017
development
91

Cyber-Social-Learning-Systems
Jim Spohrer (IBM)
August 29, 2016
http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/csls-20160821-v1
3/22/2017 Understanding Cognitive Systems
92

Today’s Talk: Cyber-Social-Learning-
Systems• What is the impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI) on CSLS?
– Augmented Intelligence (IA) via digital cognitive systems
– White House OSTP Response(s)
• Other topics to think about:
– What are more of the implications of digital cognitive systems?
• Tool > Assistant > Collaborator > Coach > Mediator
• Transformation > Experience > Data > Software > Hardware
– What does social intelligence require? Episodic Memory?
– What is the impact of augmented reality on CSLS?
– What are possible connections to service systems science
(SSME+DAPP)?
– What type of adaptive innovator with growth mindset needed
(T-shapes)?

Augmented Intelligence
• Tool
• Assistant
•
Collaborat
or
• Coach
• Mediator

White House OSTP Response(s)
• AI for public good
• Social & economic implications
• Education to harness AI
• Research questions and gaps
• Data sets and model sets
• Multidisciplinary research
• Role of incentives and prizes
• Safety and control protocols
• Legal and governance issues

In Summary
3/22/2017
development
96
“A service science
perspective considers
the evolving ecology of
service system entities,
their value co-creation and
capability co-elevation
interactions, and their
capabilities, constraints,
rights, and responsibilities.”
Cognitive Systems
Entities
Service
Systems
Entities With
Cognitive
Mediators
Add Rights &
Responsibilities

Backup Slides
• Understanding Cognitive Systems

Understanding
Cognitive Systems
Jim Spohrer (IBM), August 25, 2016
CSIG (Cognitive Systems Institute Group) Speaker
Series
http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/understanding_20
160825_v3
3/22/2017 Understanding Cognitive Systems
98

Today’s Talk: Understanding Cognitive
Systems• What is a cognitive system (entity)?
– biological
– technological
– types of digital cognitive systems
• How to…
– build them?
– understand them?
– work with them?
• Steps toward a next generation cognitive
curriculum…

But first…. Cognitive Science, a young
field
• Society
– cognitivesciencesociety.org
• People
– Founders: Roger Schank, Donald Norman,
Allan Collins
– Others: David Rumelhart, Herbert Simon,
Allen Newell
– Today: Patrick Langley, Wayne Gray,
Kenneth Forbus, Ashok Goel, Paul Maglio,
etc.
• Systems Conference
– cogsys.org
– (JCS wishes this was part of HICSS)

Advances in Cognitive Systems -
cogsys.org

Google Search: August 26, 2016

Today’s Talk: Understanding Cognitive
Systems• What is a cognitive system (entity)?
– biological
– technological
– types of digital cognitive systems
• How to…
– build them?
– understand them?
– work with them?
• Steps toward a next generation cognitive
curriculum…

What is a cognitive system (entity)?

What is a digital cognitive system
(entity)?

What types of digital cognitive
systems?
• Cognitive Build: Outthink Challenge (250K people)
– Imagine a digital cognitive system to help you do
something important in your personal or professional
lives
– Team to design it and advocate for it, and then
everyone votes
– Winners: reduce waste and human suffering, screen
for health issues and safety threats, learn life skills and
make better choices, find what you are looking for,
move around more effectively, provide emotional
support, provide IT support, learn about important
public policy goals and make better choices
• Types: Tool, Assistant, Collaborator, Coach, Mediator

Types
• Tool
• Assistant
•
Collaborat
or
• Coach
• Mediator

Types: Progression of models and
capabilities
Task & World Model/
Planning & Decisions
Self Model/
Capacity & Limits
User Model/
Episodic Memory
Institutions Model/
Trust & Social Acts
Tool + - - -
Assistant ++ + - -
Collaborator +++ ++ + -
Coach ++++ +++ ++ +
Mediator +++++ ++++ +++ ++

Build: Hardware < Software < Data <
Experience

Understand them…

Work with…

Next generation cognitive curriculum

Backup slides
• Service systems - http://service-
science.info/archives/3368

What is service science?
• IBM initiated effort to establish a
multidisciplinary field to study
service systems … with a focus on
people-centered, IT-enabled service
innovations for business and society
– based on service-dominant logic
– service = value co-creation
– IT-enabled service architectures
– service systems (socio-technical
systems for win-win value co-creation)
• IBM helped establish
– computer science (1945-present)
– service science (2005-present)
Service systems are dynamic configurations of
resources (people, technology, organizations,
and information) interconnected by
value propositions, internally and externally.
Examples:
- macro: cities, states, nations
- meso: hospitals, universities, businesses
- micro: households, families, individuals
Reference:
Spohrer J, Maglio P, Bailey J, Gruhl D (2007)
Steps toward a science of service systems.
IEEE Computer Society. 40(3):71-77(January).

What is service science?
• Now over 500 universities globally teach a more
multidisciplinary approach to service innovation,
including:
– Service management and marketing
– Service engineering and operations
– Service design and arts
– Service public policy and economics
– Service computing and informatics
• SSME + DAPP =
Service Science Management Engineering +
Design Arts Public Policy
– People, technology, organizations, information
interconnected by value propositions.
Reference:
IfM & IBM (2008). Succeeding through service
innovation: A service perspective for education,
research, business and government.
University of Cambridge Institute for Manufacturing,
Cambridge, UK. 2008.

How to get involved?
• Weekly speaker series
– Service innovation
– Service education & research
– Smart service/cognitive systems
• Discovery summits & book series
• Opportunities
– Institutional memberships
– Leadership & ambassadors
– Volunteer opportunities
– Awards & sponsored
conferences
ISSIP.org is a non-profit society
International Society of Service Innovation Professionals
Membership:
Over 1000 professionals and students from 40+ countries,
50+ companies and 50+ universities.

How to get involved?
• Journals (INFORMS,
etc.)
• Conferences (HICSS,
etc.)
• Courses (MIT, etc.)
• Funding (NSF, etc.)
• Society (ISSIP, etc.)

What are the hot topics?
• Smart Service Systems: Intelligence Augmentation
– AI + AR UX (Artificial Intelligence + Augmented Reality User
Experience)
– Smartphones (mobile, social, secure, etc.)
• Collaborative Economy: Servitization
– From assets to co-creation (e.g., Uber, AirBnB, etc.)
– From product to capability/outcome-as-a-service
– Manufacturing as a local recycling service
• Digital Transformation: Trust and Identity
– Blockchain: Don Tapscott’s TED Talk & book
– Big Data: Service Analytics & HAT (Hub of All Things)

Backups
• T-shaped people

Cognitive Assistants for all occupations
are beginning to appear
3/22/2017
development
125

My Quest
• What is the best bot that anyone can easily
install on their smartphone and laptop today?
3/22/2017
© IBM UPWard 2016
131

Ibm welcome and cognitive 20170322 v7

Empfohlen

Empfohlen

Weitere ähnliche Inhalte

Was ist angesagt?

Was ist angesagt? (20)

Andere mochten auch

Andere mochten auch (20)

Ähnlich wie Ibm welcome and cognitive 20170322 v7

Ähnlich wie Ibm welcome and cognitive 20170322 v7 (20)

Mehr von ISSIP

Mehr von ISSIP (20)

Kürzlich hochgeladen

Kürzlich hochgeladen (20)

Ibm welcome and cognitive 20170322 v7