Inventing Things tTht Matter to the World; Inventing Things tht that Matter to the WOrld; Inventing Things That Matter to the WOrld; Inventing Things That Matter to the World (correct)
1. Inventing Things That Matter To The World
Jim Spohrer
Director, IBM Cognitive OpenTech
April 22, 2020
with help from
Cheryl Kieliszewski (IBM Research)
Presentations on line at: http://slideshare.net/spohrer
11. Questions
• What is the timeline for solving AI and IA?
• TBD: When can a CEO buy AI capability <X> for price <Y>?
• Who are the leaders driving AI progress?
• What will the biggest benefits from AI be?
• What are the biggest risks associated with AI, and are they real?
• What other technologies may have a bigger impact than AI?
• What are the implications for stakeholders?
• How should we prepare to get the benefits and avoid the risks?
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13. Timeline: Every 20 years,
compute costs are down by 1000x
• Cost of Digital Workers
• Moore’s Law can be thought of as
lowering costs by a factor of a…
• Thousand times lower
in 20 years
• Million times lower
in 40 years
• Billion times lower
in 60 years
• Smarter Tools (Terascale)
• Terascale (2017) = $3K
• Terascale (2020) = ~$1K
• Narrow Worker (Petascale)
• Recognition (Fast)
• Petascale (2040) = ~$1K
• Broad Worker (Exascale)
• Reasoning (Slow)
• Exascale (2060) = ~$1K
134/21/2020 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group
2080204020001960
$1K
$1M
$1B
$1T
206020201980
+/- 10 years
$1
Person Average
Annual Salary
(Living Income)
Super Computer
Cost
Mainframe Cost
Smartphone Cost
T
P
E
T P E
AI Progress on Open Leaderboards
Benchmark Roadmap to solve AI/IA
14. Timeline: GDP/Employee
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(Source)
Lower compute costs translate into increasing productivity and GDP/employees for nations
Increasing productivity and GDP/employees should translate into wealthier citizens
AI Progress on Open Leaderboards
Benchmark Roadmap to solve AI/IA
15. Timeline: Leaderboards FrameworkAI Progress on Open Leaderboards - Benchmark Roadmap
Perceive World Develop Cognition Build Relationships Fill Roles
Pattern
recognition
Video
understanding
Memory Reasoning Social
interactions
Fluent
conversation
Assistant &
Collaborator
Coach &
Mediator
Speech Actions Declarative Deduction Scripts Speech Acts Tasks Institutions
Chime Thumos SQuAD SAT ROC Story ConvAI
Images Context Episodic Induction Plans Intentions Summarization Values
ImageNet VQA DSTC RALI General-AI
Translation Narration Dynamic Abductive Goals Cultures Debate Negotiation
WMT DeepVideo Alexa Prize ICCMA AT
Learning from Labeled Training Data and Searching (Optimization)
Learning by Watching and Reading (Education)
Learning by Doing and being Responsible (Exploration)
2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2039
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Which experts would be really surprised if it takes less time… and which experts really surprised if it takes longer?
Approx.
Year
Human
Level ->
+3
See: https://paperswithcode.com/sota
16. Who is winning
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https://www.technologyreview.com/s/608112/who-is-winning-the-ai-race/
17. Robots by Country
• Industrial robots per 10,000 people by country
4/21/2020 IBM #OpenTechAI 17
34
19. AI Benefits
• Access to expertise
• “Insanely great” labor productivity for trusted service providers
• Digital workers for healthcare, education, finance, etc.
• Better choices
• ”Insanely great” collaborations with others on what matters most
• AI for IA = Augmented Intelligence and higher value co-creation interactions
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20. AI Risks
• Job Loss
• Shorter term bigger risk
= de-skilling
• Super-intelligence
• Shorter term bigger risk
= bad actors
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21. Other Technologies: Bigger impact? Yes.
• Augmented Reality (AR)/
Virtual Reality (VR)
• Game worlds
grow-up
• Blockchain/
Security Systems
• Trust and security
immutable
• Advanced Materials/
Energy Systems
• Manufacturing as cheap,
local recycling service
(utility fog, artificial leaf, etc.)
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22. “The best way to predict the future is to inspire the
next generation of students to build it better”
Digital Natives Transportation Water Manufacturing
Energy Construction ICT Retail
Finance Healthcare Education Government
23. Artificial Leaf
• Daniel Nocera, a professor of energy
science at Harvard who pioneered the
use of artificial photosynthesis, says that
he and his colleague Pamela Silver have
devised a system that completes the
process of making liquid fuel from
sunlight, carbon dioxide, and water. And
they’ve done it at an efficiency of 10
percent, using pure carbon dioxide—in
other words, one-tenth of the energy in
sunlight is captured and turned into fuel.
That is much higher than natural
photosynthesis, which converts about 1
percent of solar energy into the
carbohydrates used by plants, and it
could be a milestone in the shift away
from fossil fuels. The new system is
described in a new paper in Science.
4/21/2020 IBM Code #OpenTechAI 23
24. Food from Air
• Although the technology is in its infancy,
researchers hope the "protein reactor"
could become a household item.
• Juha-Pekka Pitkänen, a scientist at VTT,
said: "In practice, all the raw materials
are available from the air. In the future,
the technology can be transported to,
for instance, deserts and other areas
facing famine.
• "One possible alternative is a home
reactor, a type of domestic appliance
that the consumer can use to produce
the needed protein."
• According to the researchers, the
process of creating food from electricity
can be nearly 10 times as energy
efficient as photosynthesis, the process
used by plants.
4/21/2020 IBM Code #OpenTechAI 24
25. Exoskeletons for Elderly
• A walker is a “very cost-effective”
solution for people with limited
mobility, but “it completely
disempowers, removes dignity,
removes freedom, and causes a
whole host of other psychological
problems,” SRI Ventures president
Manish Kothari says. “Superflex’s
goal is to remove all of those areas
that cause psychological-type
encumbrances and, ultimately,
redignify the individual."
4/21/2020 IBM Code #OpenTechAI 25
41. Icons of AI Progress
• 1956: Dartmouth Conference
organized by:
• John McCarthy (Dartmouth, later
Stanford)
• Marvin Minsky (MIT)
• and two senior scientists:
• Claude Shannon (Bell Labs)
• Nathan Rochester (IBM)
• 1997: Deep Blue (IBM) - Chess
• 2011: Watson Jeopardy! (IBM)
• 2016: AlphaGo (Google DeepMinds)
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42. AI at IBM: Past (Nathan Rochester)
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43. Smartphones pass entrance exams? When?
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… when will
your smartphone
be able to take and
pass any online
course? And then
be your coach, so
you can pass too?
47. Step Comment
GitHub Get an account and read the guide
MAX CODAIT’s Model Asset Exchange
Learn 3 R's - Read, Redo, Report Read (Medium/arXiv), Redo (GitHub), Report (Jupyter Notebook)
PapersWithCode Stay on top of recent advances; Do 3 R’s.
Kaggle Compete in a Kaggle competition
Leaderboards Compete to advance AI progress
Linux Foundation AI Help end-to-end open source industry AI & Data infrastructure
Mozilla Common Voice Donate your speech; Label and verify data; Recruit others.
Figure Eight Generate a set of labeled data (also Mechanical Turk)
Design New Challenges Build for Call for Code/Code and Response; Build your AI Helper;
Build test-taker, that can switch to tutor-mode; Etc.
Open Source Guide Establish open source culture in your organization
4/21/2020 IBM Code #OpenTechAI 47
48. 4/21/2020 (c) IBM MAP COG .| 48
Microsoft acquiring GitHub $7.5B
2018 John Marks on Open Source
Models will run the world
Why SW is eating the world
The activities of our global labs reflect both local market needs and the deep technical expertise found in these key regions of the world.
For example, our Dublin, Ireland lab collaborates with academic and industrial partners on research programs established by the European Union as well as collaborative projects developed side by side with University College Dublin scientists.
In Africa we are developing commercially-viable solutions to transform lives and spark new business opportunities in key areas such as agriculture, healthcare, financial inclusion, education, energy, blockchain and cloud computing.
In Brazil we are working on natural resources solutions, collaborating with leading energy companies to enhance energy exploration and develop new transformative technologies.
In India we are bringing cognitive technologies to bear in solving problems within several industry domains such as financial services, education, human resources and fashion.
We have been a home for creative scientific minds since 1945.
Many of our researchers have become famous for their inventions and discoveries, earning an array of the most prestigious awards in science.
These include six Nobel Prizes, 10 U.S. national medals of technology, five U.S. national medals of science and six Turing Awards, along with many other distinguished honors.
IBM inventors received a record 9,100 patents in 2018, including more than 3,000 patents related to work in artificial intelligence, cloud and quantum computing.
This marks the company’s 26th consecutive year of U.S. patent leadership, having crossing the 100,000-patent milestone the year before, in 2017.
Our work in many of these began long before there were practical enterprise uses for the technology, and that spirit of research for the sake of discovery is what has propelled us to lead the field in patent grants for more than a quarter of a century.
This year we led the industry with 1,600 AI-related patents, a number of which stemmed from our work around the language and machine learning techniques that power Project Debater. These innovations will help transform how we interact with AI and enhance our ability to use it as a tool to gain more meaningful insights.
We’ve also explored how technology can improve our health and promote safety, patenting methods for smart wearables to communicate with electronic components embedded in prostheses – from hearing aids to prosthetic arms – potentially helping them quickly adapt to better suit the wearer’s needs.
Another significant patent this year was for foundational blockchain technology that encrypts transactions as they are recorded and allows users to share transactions with an encryption key. Different keys can be provided to different user sets depending upon the type of data a user is authorized to access. For example, one key could be provided for access to medical transactions, and another key could be provided for financial transactions.
IBM inventors also patented significant inventions in quantum computing, including a new way of miniaturizing components that improve the performance of quantum computers. This may allow the integration of discrete elements into a single quantum computing chip.
The outstanding innovations from IBM researchers around the world who contributed to this record patent year are truly leading the way for the future – helping to make business and society smarter, safer and more sustainable.
IBM Research collaborates across diverse disciplines, closely aligned with peers in the core fields of academia, to address some of the world’s most complex problems and promising opportunities.
We believe that profound breakthroughs will come when businesses, governments, academic institutions and others work together to tap into diverse points of view and expertise.
Collectively, we’re working to understand how systems are interconnected and the role technology plays within them.
1950 Nathaniel Rochester (IBM) 701 first commercial computer that did super-human levels of numeric calculations routinely. He worked at MIT on arithmetic unit of WhirlWind I programmable computer.
Dota 2 is most recent August 11, 2017 as a super-human game player in Valve Dota 2 competition – Elon Musk’s OpenAI result.
Miles Bundage tracks gaming progress: http://www.milesbrundage.com/blog-posts/my-ai-forecasts-past-present-and-future-main-post
DOTA2: https://blog.openai.com/more-on-dota-2/
What is beyond Exascale? Zetta (21), Yotta (24)
Time dimension (x-axis) is plus or minus 10 years….
Daniel Pakkala (VTT)
URL: https://aiimpacts.org/preliminary-prices-for-human-level-hardware/
Dan Gruhl:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/business/1983/11/06/in-pursuit-of-the-10-gigaflop-machine/012c995a-2b16-470b-96df-d823c245306e/?utm_term=.d4bde5652826
In 1983 10 GF was ~10 million.
That's 24.55 million in today's dollars.
or 2.4 billion for 1 TF in 1983
Today 1 TF is about $3k http://www.popsci.com/intel-teraflop-chip
Source: http://service-science.info/archives/4741
+3 from original estimates, getting video understanding (verbs and nouns and context) and episodic dynamic memory for learning events and expectation violations and importance is taking longer than expected…
Expert predictions on HMLI: URL https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.08807.pdf
2015 Pattern Recognition Speech: URL: http://spandh.dcs.shef.ac.uk/chime_challenge/chime2016/results.html
2015 Pattern Recognition Images: URL: http://www.image-net.org/
2015 Patten Recognition Translation: URL: http://www.statmt.org/wmt17/
2018 Video Understanding Actions: URL: http://www.thumos.info/home.html
> Also UCF101 http://crcv.ucf.edu/data/UCF101.php
2018 Video Understanding Context: URL: http://visualqa.org/challenge.html
2018 Video Understanding DeepVideo: URL: http://cs.stanford.edu/people/karpathy/deepvideo/
2021 Memory Declarative: URL: https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/
Also Allen AI Kaggle Science Challenge https://www.kaggle.com/c/the-allen-ai-science-challenge
2024 Reasoning Deduction: URL: http://www.satcompetition.org/
2027: Social Interaction Scripts: URL: https://competitions.codalab.org/competitions/15333
2030: Fluent Conversation Speech Acts: URL: http://convai.io/
2030: Fluent Conversation Intentions: URL: http://workshop.colips.org/dstc6/
2030: Fluent Conversation Alexa Prize: URL: https://developer.amazon.com/alexaprize
2033: Assistant & Collaborator Summarization: URL: http://rali.iro.umontreal.ca/rali/?q=en/Automatic%20summarization
2033: Assistant & Collaborator Debate: URL: http://argumentationcompetition.org/2015/
2036: Coach & Mediator General AI: URL: https://www.general-ai-challenge.org/
2036: Coach & Mediator Negotiation: URL: https://easychair.org/cfp/AT2017
ROW – Rest of World
Who is winning: https://www.technologyreview.com/s/608112/who-is-winning-the-ai-race/
Leaderboards and reproducibility:
Hugo Larochelle (Google Brain) (@hugo_larochelle) 8/21/17, 7:36 AM
My slides for my talk at ICML 2017 Reproducibility Workshop, on incentives for open source and on open research:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B8lLzpxgRHNQZ0paZWQ0cTcxMlNYYnc0TnpHekMxMjVBckVR/view
Slide 20: Conclusions: "Open source is the key to better reproducibility"
URL: https://www.slideshare.net/AccentureTechnology/ai-and-the-economy/1
URL: https://www.accenture.com/no-en/insight-artificial-intelligence-future-growth
Plastino E, Purdy M (2018) Game changing value from Artificial Intelligence: eight strategies. Strategy & Leadership. 2018 Jan 15;46(1):16-22.
URL: https://www.slideshare.net/AccentureTechnology/ai-and-the-economy/1
URL: https://www.accenture.com/no-en/insight-artificial-intelligence-future-growth
URL: https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Eduardo_Plastino/publication/323126961_Strategy_Leadership_Game_changing_value_from_Artificial_Intelligence_eight_strategies_Article_information/links/5a81ae20a6fdcc6f3eacfe35/Strategy-Leadership-Game-changing-value-from-Artificial-Intelligence-eight-strategies-Article-information.pdf
Someday we will have AI's that help write the first draft of our chapters - see Narrative Sciences: How the future gets written - https://narrativescience.com/ Alex when to grad school with Kris Hammond who founded Narrative Sciences... and one of Alex's and my office mates Natalie Dehn was working on this topic for her dissertation at Yale - see: https://nil.cs.uno.edu/publications/papers/dehn1981story.pdf Circa 1984.... about 34 years ago... Writing papers will get much easier....
The nature of reality changes when there is more than one intelligent species, and we are not the smartest.
The nature of reality also changes when the cost of exploring alternate experience pathways are made less risky – the notions of time and identity changes as a result.
Mitigate risks and harvest benefits of existence, by learning to evermore efficiently and rapidly rebuild from scratch to higher states of value and capability of entities.
The evolving ecology of service system entities their value co-creation and capability co-elevation mechanisms, as well as their capabilities, constraints, rights, and responsibilities at each stage in time. Human progress as well as the development of individuals, and the arc of institutions can be viewed in this way. Entities exist as individuals and populations. Generations of entities, generations of species (populations), generations of individuals (cohorts).
By 2036, there will be an accumulation of knowledge as well as a distribution of knowledge in service systems globally. We need to ensure as there is knowledge accumulation that service systems at all scale become more resilient. Leading to the capability of rapid rebuilding of service systems across scales, by T-shaped people who understand how to rapidly rebuild – knowledge has been chunked, modularized, and put into networks that support rapid rebuilding.
The weakest link is what needs to be improved – according to system scientists. Accessing help, service, experts is the weakest link in most systems.
By 2035 the phone may have the power of one human brain – by 2055 the phone may have the power of all human brains.
Before trying to answer the question about which types of sciences are more important – the ones that try to explain the external world or the ones that try to explain the internal world – consider this, slide that shows the different telephones that I have used in my life. I grew up in rural Maine, where we had a party line telephone because we were somewhat remote on our farm in Newburgh, Maine.
However, over the years phones got much better…. So in 2035 or 2055, who are you going to call when you need help?
Today’s talk will explore two questions
What should we know how to make?
What might programming education become?
If we look at history we see a time when people could make only simple things, and often a single person could make them.
Would it ever be possible for a single person to know and make complex things? And what role might programming education play?
Will the cognitive era – the coming era of smart machines – make people more capable or less capable to know and make complex things?
In the 1940’s IBM started teaching computer science at Columbia.
My first program – punch cards 1972.
Wendy Murphy’s dog – hard for AI to recognize in 2016, easy in 2018…
Visit IBM Research – Almaden, San Jose, CA USA 05120 – instructions: http://service-science.info/archives/4679
Join ISSIP.org – it’s free for individuals to join and get monthly newsletter: http://service-science.info/archives/4901
Contribute a short book to our series – blog compilations welcomed - http://www.businessexpertpress.com/product-category/service-systems-and-innovations-in-business-and-society/
We are trying to make complex servce systems things simpler – but not too simple. Wise innovation increase resilience with abundant opportunities for all.
Visit IBM Research – Almaden, San Jose, CA USA 05120 – instructions: http://service-science.info/archives/4679
Join ISSIP.org – it’s free for individuals to join and get monthly newsletter: http://service-science.info/archives/4901
Contribute a short book to our series – blog compilations welcomed - http://www.businessexpertpress.com/product-category/service-systems-and-innovations-in-business-and-society/
We are trying to make complex servce systems things simpler – but not too simple. Wise innovation increase resilience with abundant opportunities for all.
it used to be that computers couldn’t understand images
Modha’s Brain - Goal 1KW and 2 Litres….
Dharmendra Modha and his design for a brain chip playing pong:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gQ3HEVelBFY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tqeINGOzIZo
https://twitter.com/dharmendramodha/status/545693986149511168
URL: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_artificial_intelligence
URL: http://www.businessinsider.com/infographic-ai-effect-on-economy-2017-8
Today’s infographic comes from the Extraordinary Future 2017, a new conference in Vancouver, BC that focuses on emerging technologies such as AI, autonomous vehicles, fintech, and block
http://extraordinaryfuture.com/e/extraordinary-future-2017-71chain tech.
Nathaniel Rochester: In 1948, Rochester moved to IBM where he designed the IBM 701, the first general purpose, mass-produced computer. He wrote the first symbolic assembler, which allowed programs to be written in short, readable commands rather than pure numbers or punch codes.
O*NET Online is the occupation network online, started by the US Dept of Labor in the 1990’s – it now represents one of the most comprehensive lists of occupations along with a great deal of information about each occupation, including skills, tasks, certifications, demand for these jobs, etc.
O*NET lists about 1000 occupations from Accountants to Zoologists – and many job families in between. O*NET updates the descriptions of the occupations as well as adding new occupations over time.
Source:
http://www.onetonline.org/find/family?f=0
GitHub – open source code – http://github.com
Kaggle – data and competitions – http://Kaggle.com
Leaderboard – AI an competitions - https://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/leaderboards-80909263
Figure Eight – label data - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Figure_Eight_Inc.
Open Source Guides – reader, contributor, committer, governance - https://opensource.guide/
GitHub is to knowledge in action (writing code) as Wikidedia is to knowledge in text (writing text)
URL: Why software is eating the world – see https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424053111903480904576512250915629460
URL: Microsoft acquiring GitHub – see https://blogs.microsoft.com/blog/2018/06/04/microsoft-github-empowering-developers/
URL: Models will run the world – see https://www.wsj.com/articles/models-will-run-the-world-1534716720
URL: John Marks, “Why Open Source Failed”
https://medium.com/@johnmark/why-open-source-failed-6cae5d6a9f6
First, the good news, which is actually bad. In a 2016 survey from Blackduck, 96% of software products developed that year used open source software. That number is likely higher now. In the software world, particularly software that runs the computing infrastructure of the internet, open source is ubiquitous. One could claim, without any exaggeration, that our current world runs on open source software or that our modern world would not exist in its current form without open source software. I don’t know how to calculate the total value of open source software to the world, but I do know that if open source software suddenly went away, the results would be catastrophic, an existential crisis for humanity. So when I write that “open source has failed” I’m obviously not writing from a technology perspective, where it was been a clear-cut winner and the foundation of an endless supply of business models, products, and services. To say that open source contributed to the overall innovation of the world would be a shameful understatement. Better would be to say that the world’s computing innovations owe their existence to the triumph of open source development. If you think this all sounds pretty terrific, read on to find out what I left out.
In the context of this essay, “failure” refers not to any technical achievements but rather to the lack of social ones. When we were but wee lads and lasses on the forefront of this thing we called free software and eventually open source, we knew that this was dangerous stuff. It was destined to set fire to an entire industry, undermining entrenched monopoly powers and establishing a more equitable approach to building wealth around the tools that would power humanity in the 21st century. It was about the democratization of software and would smash what we then called the “digital divide”. That premise was entirely false. The crux of this essay is thus: not only did open source not stem or stall the redistribution of wealth and power upwards, but rather it aided and abetted the redistribution of wealth and power upwards. To be an open source proponent at this time without acknowledging this very real and most unfortunate consequence is to be a cog in a much larger machine; a stooge; a very useful idiot.
When considering the role of open source in redistributing wealth upwards, it’s instructive to consider the example of Microsoft. Not because I enjoy picking on them or think they’re evil — I don’t; Microsoft as a publicly traded company is no more or less evil than any other company. Rather, I like to single them out because their public stance towards open source has changed much over the years and is a useful measuring stick for the points I’m trying to make. Did you ever wonder *why* their public stance towards open source shifted so much over the years, from “Linux is a cancer” to “use our open source software”? Could it be because, unlike the company’s predecessors in 2000, current executives now understand that open source software forms the building blocks of modern capitalist behemoths?
AI Fairness 360 toolkit (AIF360) is a comprehensive open-source toolkit of metrics to check for unwanted bias in datasets and machine learning models, and state-of-the-art algorithms to mitigate such bias.
Machine learning models are increasingly used to inform high-stakes decisions about people.
Although machine learning, by its very nature, is always a form of statistical discrimination, the discrimination becomes objectionable when it places certain privileged groups at systematic advantage and certain unprivileged groups at systematic disadvantage.
Bias in training data, due to either prejudice in labels or under-/over-sampling, yields models with unwanted bias.
The initial release of the AIF360 Python package contains nine different algorithms, developed by the broader algorithmic fairness research community, to mitigate that unwanted bias.
The goal of the package is not only a way to bring researchers together, but also to translate collective research results to data scientists, data engineers, and developers deploying solutions in a variety of industries.
AIF360 is a bit different from currently available open source efforts due its focus on bias mitigation (as opposed to simply on metrics), its focus on industrial usability, and its software engineering.
AIF360 is relevant to credit scoring, predicting medical expenditures, and classifying face images by gender, among many other areas.