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AI Is a Two-Edged Sword

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My 15-min talk for the Techfluence panel at Ziba on May 18, 2017.

Veröffentlicht in: Technologie
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AI Is a Two-Edged Sword

  1. 1. TheREXpedition.com AI Is a Two-Edged Sword @JerryMichalski TECHfluence Panel May 2017
  2. 2. TheREXpedition.com Since the First Computers
  3. 3. TheREXpedition.com Two Paths Biology Logic If x Then y Except when z
  4. 4. TheREXpedition.com Two Paths Biology Logic If x Then y Except when z Neural Networks
  5. 5. TheREXpedition.com Two Paths Biology Logic If x Then y Except when z Expert SystemsNeural Networks
  6. 6. TheREXpedition.com Two Paths Knowledge engineers + experts Explicit rules Mainstream in many areas Nice audit trail Expert SystemsNeural Networks “Learn” from big datasets Calculation intensive Sometimes amazing results No audit trail
  7. 7. TheREXpedition.com Two Paths Knowledge engineers + experts Explicit rules Mainstream in many areas Nice audit trail Expert SystemsNeural Networks “Learn” from big datasets Calculation intensive Sometimes amazing results No audit trail 1969
  8. 8. TheREXpedition.com 1987
  9. 9. TheREXpedition.com 1987
  10. 10. TheREXpedition.com 1987
  11. 11. TheREXpedition.com CIE
  12. 12. TheREXpedition.com 2017
  13. 13. TheREXpedition.com 201730 Years Later
  14. 14. TheREXpedition.com Machine Intelligence Got better, too, but not as much Expert SystemsDeep Learning Many “hidden layers” Huge datasets HW: CPUs to GPUs to TPUs Breakthrough performance Narrow domains
  15. 15. TheREXpedition.com Machine Intelligence Got better, too, but not as much Expert SystemsDeep Learning Many “hidden layers” Huge datasets HW: CPUs to GPUs to TPUs Breakthrough performance Narrow domains Kevin Kelly: “Cognification”
  16. 16. TheREXpedition.com Machine Intelligence Got better, too, but not as much Expert SystemsDeep Learning Many “hidden layers” Huge datasets HW: CPUs to GPUs to TPUs Breakthrough performance Narrow domains Artificial General Intelligence? Kevin Kelly: “Cognification”
  17. 17. TheREXpedition.com Machine Intelligence Got better, too, but not as much Expert SystemsDeep Learning Many “hidden layers” Huge datasets HW: CPUs to GPUs to TPUs Breakthrough performance Narrow domains Superintelligence?Artificial General Intelligence? Kevin Kelly: “Cognification”
  18. 18. TheREXpedition.com Our Future with AI Utopia Dystopia 2017 Leisure Abundance Skynet Westworld WALL-E Her Jetsons Elysium The Circle Black Mirror Efficiency Singularity Singularity • Scarcity • No jobs • No meaning • Surveillance FALC Fully Automated Luxury Communism 2037
  19. 19. TheREXpedition.com Our Future with AI Utopia Dystopia 2017 Leisure Abundance Skynet Westworld WALL-E Her Jetsons Elysium The Circle Black Mirror Efficiency Singularity Singularity • Scarcity • No jobs • No meaning • Surveillance • Jobs always appear! • AI won’t be so bad • Privacy is so 60s… FALC Fully Automated Luxury Communism 2037
  20. 20. TheREXpedition.com Our Future with AI Utopia Dystopia 2017 Leisure Abundance Skynet Westworld WALL-E Her Jetsons Elysium The Circle Black Mirror Efficiency Singularity Singularity • Scarcity • No jobs • No meaning • Surveillance • Jobs always appear! • AI won’t be so bad • Privacy is so 60s… FALC Fully Automated Luxury Communism 2037
  21. 21. TheREXpedition.com Our Future with AI Utopia Dystopia 2017 Leisure Abundance Skynet Westworld WALL-E Her Jetsons Elysium The Circle Black Mirror Efficiency Singularity Singularity • Scarcity • No jobs • No meaning • Surveillance • Jobs always appear! • AI won’t be so bad • Privacy is so 60s… FALC Fully Automated Luxury Communism 2037 CMMC PPPP ??
  22. 22. TheREXpedition.com Consumer Mass-Market Capitalism • Many flavors of Capitalism • Citizens ➡ Consumers • Advertising = war • Cruel US Social Contract • Poverty = dismal trap • Increasing income inequality
  23. 23. TheREXpedition.com $? Wall Street pressure
  24. 24. TheREXpedition.com $? Advertising! Wall Street pressure
  25. 25. TheREXpedition.com Surveillance Capitalism
  26. 26. TheREXpedition.com Surveillance Capitalism The Stalker Economy
  27. 27. TheREXpedition.com Minority Report: Ethan in the Mall
  28. 28. TheREXpedition.com Jobs at Risk • Driving (27%!) • Retail • Thinking: writing, legal • Full-time work disappearing (gigs) • The Precariat • Tasks, not jobs
  29. 29. TheREXpedition.com Two-Curve Problem Horse and Carriage Automobiles
  30. 30. TheREXpedition.com Two-Curve Problem Horse and Carriage Automobiles
  31. 31. TheREXpedition.com Two-Curve Problem Horse and Carriage Automobiles • Electrification • The Telegraph • The Internet • Smartphones
  32. 32. TheREXpedition.com Software Automation = Flesh-Eating Bacterium
  33. 33. TheREXpedition.com Humans vs. Software • Get tired • Get sick • Ask for raises • Get cranky • Retire • Doesn’t do any of those • Keeps getting better • Keeps getting cheaper • Perfectly replicable Humans Software
  34. 34. TheREXpedition.com No Second Curve?
  35. 35. TheREXpedition.com PPPP
  36. 36. TheREXpedition.com PPPP Pale Patriarchal Penis People
  37. 37. TheREXpedition.com PPPP Algorithm Culture Pale Patriarchal Penis People
  38. 38. TheREXpedition.com PPPP Efficiency Algorithm Culture Pale Patriarchal Penis People
  39. 39. TheREXpedition.com PPPP Efficiency Scale Algorithm Culture Pale Patriarchal Penis People
  40. 40. TheREXpedition.com PPPP Efficiency Scale Profit Algorithm Culture Pale Patriarchal Penis People
  41. 41. TheREXpedition.com Key Levers: • Hacking Capitalism (for the better) • Waking up (and diversifying) tech’s architects • Designing from trust
  42. 42. TheREXpedition.com Key Levers: • Hacking Capitalism (for the better) • Waking up (and diversifying) tech’s architects • Designing from trust Guaranteed Basic Income
  43. 43. TheREXpedition.com Key Levers: • Hacking Capitalism (for the better) • Waking up (and diversifying) tech’s architects • Designing from trust Guaranteed Basic Income
  44. 44. TheREXpedition.com For More Info JerrysBrain.com @JerryMichalski

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