1. Powered by
What’s Next:
Nudgestock
2019
In 60 minutes

2. Welcome
Dayoán Daumont
Consulting Partner
Ogilvy Consulting
Jordan Buck
Consultant
Ogilvy Consulting
Jack Duddy
Consultant
Ogilvy Consulting
Chloe Hutchings Hay
Analyst
Ogilvy Consulting

3. Tell us
where you
are dialing in
from!
What’s the weather
like in your city?

4. Do you want
this deck?
It will be available for download
shortly after the webinar on:
slideshare.net/socialogilvy
And the recording up on
facebook.com/OgilvyConsulting

6. …in 60 minutes

8. Folkestone

10. Highlights

11. Tricia WangWill Page
Gerd
GigerenzerCandice HoganRobert FrankStefanie
Johnson
Jack JordanJackJordanChloe Chloe

12. Will Page
Remixing Spotify’s Experience at Scale
Jack Duddy
Milena Bursztyn

13. Remixing
Spotify’s
Experience
at
scale

14. Chief Economist of Spotify …
… meets Chicago Booths finest.

17. Why Spotify experiments?

18. if you had 40m unique users ‘opting into’ a
randomised trial every Monday
- what would you test?

20. people use visual heuristics for wayfinding

21. Endowment Effect: ‘Your’ Daily Mix

22. Visual Attention: Artist Image - Mosaic Image

23. Image cover lifts Daily Mix adoption

25. The ABC’s to Breaking Bias
Chloe Hutchings-Hay
Dr. Stephanie Johnson

26. The Rockstar was unhappy with
the amount of alcohol at the party.

27. The nun was unhappy with the
amount of alcohol at the party.

29. Female and minority leaders who
“Respect differences, value working with
different types of people & are
comfortable managing diverse
employees”
are seen as less competent and effective

30. The Case For Diversity
• Identifying the top talent
• Diversity increases employee satisfaction
• Diversity fosters innovation and creativity
• Strengthening affinity to customers
• Increased financial performance
Source: Diversity Matters, McKinsey (2015)

31. Admit it

32. Block it

33. Count it

34. Support it

35. Robert Frank
The Mother Of All Cognitive Illusions
Jordan Buck

36. July 28, 2020
Robert H. Frank
Author and
Professor of
Economics at
Cornell University
Nudgestock
& The Night Before Nudgestock
36

37. July 28, 2020 37

38. July 28, 2020 38

39. July 28, 2020
1. We are heavily swayed by social context
and influence
2. This can lead to expenditure cascades
3. But social contagion can be used for good!
39

40. The strongest predictor of
whether people will smoke is the
proportion of their peers who
smoke.
Ali, M.M. & Dwyer, D.S. (2009)

41. Expenditure Cascades
We assess wealth in
relative terms, not in
absolute terms.
Relative social standing is
everything!

42. The median new
house in the US is
now 50 percent
larger than in 1980

43. 1980: $11,000 2018: $36,000
Average American Wedding Expense
(in 2010 dollars)

44. “Shifting frames of
reference caused by
rising inequality have
spawned larger houses,
heavier vehicles, and
many other forms of
wasteful energy
consumption. But
behavioural contagion
can also be enlisted to
solve other challenges
and reduce energy
consumption!”
“Social contagion”

45. July 28, 2020
1. We are heavily swayed by social context
and influence
2. This can lead to expenditure cascades
3. But social contagion can be used for good!
45

46. Uber Labs
Jack Duddy
Candice Hogan

47. 47
Behavioural science
at scaleCandice Hogan

48. July 28, 2020 48
Ambiguity
Aversion
Identifiable
Victim
Effect

49. 49
Behavioural Science & Uber
– Baked into the design and experience
– Choose where they focus for the most
‘high impact’ opportunities
– Teach and guide internally
– Roll out their interventions at scale
– Can’t improve your Uber rating.

50. 50
The Uber
Pool
challenge:Waiting is a new experience for users
who are used to immediate match.
How can we better convey waiting to
users?
To highlight progress during waiting, break the
batching process into granular steps and show
updates
● Idleness Aversion [Hsee, Yang, & Wang,
2010]
● Operational Transparency [Buell & Norton,
2011]
● Goal Gradient Effect [Kivetz et al, 2006]
11%decrease in
cancellation
rate

51. 51
The Uber Rewards program:
The Uber Rewards program provides benefits for different
levels of engagement
In order to understand the health of this program, it’s
important to measure how customers progress and regress
through reward tiers
Insight:
● Adapted Goal Distance Model (Kivetz, Urminsky, & Zheng,
2006) to quantify progress toward program milestones
● Using behavioural science and machine learning

52. 52
Lessons for Organisations:
Be brought in at
the earliest
stages
Create guidelines
and tools to
educate and
enable the wider
organisation

53. 53

54. Tricia Wang
The End of an Error: Reclaiming
Marketing from Ad Tech
Chloe Hutchings-Hay

55. • Global tech ethnographer
• TED superstar
Who is
Tricia Wang?

57. Quantification Bias
the unconscious belief of valuing the measurable
over the immeasurable

58. Old-school
Marketing
New-school
Marketing

59. Shift 1
Deep customer insights aren’t valued.

60. Shift 2
Creative and ad tech
have become enemies, sitting on
different sides of the argument.

61. 1.7 billion people
Block ads

62. What’s the
solution?

63. THICK DATA
The most direct, unmediated data from humans that
captures the full context of their emotions and stories

64. THICK DATA
1. Let’s you see the world like an alien.
2. Rescues context loss from big data

65. “You can’t input tears
and smiles into a
spreadsheet”

66. “All big data comes the
from the same place,
the past.”
Rory Sutherland

67. THICK DATA
BIG DATA

68. Ogilvy Learnings
1. Value the position we have as Ogilvy.
2. Go deeper to understand customers more:
• Conduct Qual research
• Get into the customers world
• Understand the psychology of the context in
which consumers make decisions

69. Gerd Gigerenzer
Less is More: Decision Making
under Uncertainty
Jordan Buck

70. Director of the Harding Center for
Risk Literacy at the Max Planck
Institute for Human Development
in Berlin
Gerd Gigerenzer

71. MAKE DECISIONS SIMPLE

72. RISK
knowledge of future states; what could happen and roughly how likely it is
UNCERTAINTY
unsure knowledge; possible outcomes and their likelihood

73. WHAT IS A HEURISTIC ?
A heuristic is a useful method to solve a problem…
…with the minimum effort and calculation
Rule of thumb ?
Intuitive judgement ?
Guesstimate ?
Fast & frugal ?

75. HIATUS HEURISTIC
If a customer has not purchased within a certain number of
months (the hiatus), the customer is classified as inactive;
otherwise, the customer is classified as active.
vs.

76. What to watch out for…
• When are you risky, when are you uncertain?
• Faster AND more accurate?

77. What to take home
• If in doubt, simplify
• Test out your rules of thumb!

79. O Behave Podcast
Nudgestock Special

80. Thank You
See you next year

81. Questions?

82. Thank you.