The official Ogilvy Key Digital Trends for 2017. A yearly trend report outlining both where we believe the digital and social landscape is headed and what brands and agency partners should do about it. By Marshall Manson and James Whatley
1. Key Digital Trends for 2017
By Marshall Manson & James Whatley
@MarshallManson / @Whatleydude
#OgilvyTrends2017
2. #OgilvyTrends2017
Introduction
For the past few years, two of Ogilvy’s digital and innovation
leaders, Marshall Manson and James Whatley, have
collaborated on a yearly trend report outlining both where they
believe the digital and social landscape is headed and what
brands and agency partners should do about it.!
As is tradition, this document — the fourth annual edition — is
made up of two parts: !
First a review and grading of their 2016 predictions, and second,
a look ahead to what the future holds in 2017. !
We hope you enjoy it. !
4. #OgilvyTrends2017
Trend 1: The Adblocker Endgame
We said:
Adblocker usage will continue to grow. Users will consume fewer banner ads -
across mobile and desktop. Ecosystem owners will step up their fight against
page bloat - maximising reach, minimising advertising disruption. !
!
We advised:
Consider consumer intent before not only publishing content but also during the
content planning phase. By applying this level of strategic rigour ahead of the
work you would then be better placed to take advantage of the advanced micro-
targeting options available to you via the leading platforms. !
!
What happened:
Ablocker usage jumped 34% during 2016 (in the US alone) and ecosystems
doubled down on their fast-loading articles (Facebook opened Instant Articles to
all publishers and we said hello to Google Amp). Furthermore, Adblock Plus
reported 100m (!!) users. !
!
How did we do:
Banner advertising is an outdated communications tool. Adblocker usage shows
no sign of falling and marketers are increasingly looking at using varying levels of
sophisticated targeting to ensure that marketing messages are seen by the right
eyeballs. !
NAILED IT. #OgilvyTrends2017
2016 Predictions:
How Did We Do?
5. #OgilvyTrends2017
Trend 2: The Video Evolution
We said:
‘The Video Royale mega-battle will continue’ - with more and more platforms
launching their own video offering(s), the same content will soon be available
everywhere. We also said ‘In 2016, the way we both consume and create content
will change forever.’!
!
We advised:
As 2016 would be the year of video innovation 1.0 (eg: VR, AR, 360 video) we
advised a) not panicking and b) if you had the time/money, consider going for the
early PR value - with 360 video and/or Google Cardboard experiences being the
easiest and most accessible. !
!
What happened:
Google shipped 5m cardboard viewers. YouTube viewers watched in excess of
350k hours of VR content. Huge content publishers, such as Sky TV, Netflix, and
Warner Bros launched their own VR offerings. And did someone say Spectacles?!
!
How did we do:
The video focus of the platforms where we spend most of our online time shows
no sign of abating. Video is first (more on that to come later), innovation is
flourishing, and consumers are onboard. !
!
NAILED IT. #OgilvyTrends2017
2016 Predictions:
How Did We Do?
6. #OgilvyTrends2017
Trend 3: Gen Z - Peak Millennial
We said:
‘Millennial’ is a cheap, lazy, and fundamentally boring way to describe a
homogeneous group of around 1.7 billion people. Additionally, the next
faceless cohort are on their way - Gen Z - and they are also an all different, all
non-conforming group of people. !
!
We advised:
Ignore cohorts. Focus on consumer insights. If you get (or write) a brief saying
‘We want to speak to Millennials’, push back - hard. !
!
What happened:
We think it’s fair to say that perhaps this one didn’t go to plan. !
!
How did we do:
Let’s take a look…!
!
#OgilvyTrends2017
2016 Predictions:
How Did We Do?
7. #OgilvyTrends2017
2016 Predictions:
How Did We Do?
We had three major trends in last
year’s edition (as well as three Bonus
Noodles - but we’ll get onto those).
We said:
‘Millennial’ is a cheap, lazy, and boring way to describe a homogeneous group
of around1.7bn people. Furthermore, the next cohort are on their way - Gen Z -
and they are also an all different, all non-conforming group of people.
We advised:
Ignore cohorts. Focus on consumer insights. If you get (or write) a brief saying
‘We want to speak to Millennials’, push back - hard.
What happened:
How did we do:
#OgilvyTrends2016 Data
Trend 3: Gen Z - Peak Millennial
#OgilvyTrends2017
8. #OgilvyTrends2017
2016 Predictions:
How Did We Do?
We had three major trends in last
year’s edition (as well as three Bonus
Noodles - but we’ll get onto those).
We said:
‘Millennial’ is a cheap, lazy, and boring way to describe a homogeneous group of
around1.7bn people. Furthermore, the next cohort are on their way - Gen Z - and
they are also an all different, all non-conforming group of people.
We advised:
Ignore cohorts. Focus on consumer insights. If you get (or write) a brief saying ‘We
want to speak to Millennials’, push back - hard.
What happened:
How did we do:
TL;DR:
Trend 3: Gen Z - Peak Millennial
#OgilvyTrends2017 Data
#OgilvyTrends2017
9. #OgilvyTrends2017
2016 Predictions:
How Did We Do?
We had three major trends in last
year’s edition (as well as three Bonus
Noodles - but we’ll get onto those).
We said:
‘Millennial’ is a cheap, lazy, and boring way to describe a homogeneous group of
around1.7bn people. Furthermore, the next cohort are on their way - Gen Z - and
they are also an all different, all non-conforming group of people.
We advised:
Ignore cohorts. Focus on consumer insights. If you get (or write) a brief saying ‘We
want to speak to Millennials’, push back - hard.
What happened:
How did we do:
TL;DR:
#OgilvyTrends2017 Data
Trend 3: Gen Z - Peak Millennial
#OgilvyTrends2017
10. #OgilvyTrends2017
We had three major trends in last
year’s edition (as well as three Bonus
Noodles - but we’ll get onto those).
Trend 3: Gen Z - Peak Millennial
We said:
‘Millennial’ is a cheap, lazy, and fundamentally boring way to describe a
homogeneous group of around 1.7 billion people. Additionally, the next
faceless cohort are on their way - Gen Z - and they are also an all different, all
non-conforming group of people. !
!
We advised:
Ignore cohorts. Focus on consumer insights. If you get (or write) a brief saying
‘We want to speak to Millennials’, push back - hard. !
What happened:
We think it’s fair to say that perhaps this one didn’t go to plan. !
How did we do:
#OgilvyTrends2017
2016 Predictions:
How Did We Do?
11. #OgilvyTrends2017
Trend 3: Gen Z - Peak Millennial
We had three major trends in last
year’s edition (as well as three Bonus
Noodles - but we’ll get onto those).
We said:
‘Millennial’ is a cheap, lazy, and fundamentally boring way to describe a
homogeneous group of around 1.7 billion people. Additionally, the next
faceless cohort are on their way - Gen Z - and they are also an all different, all
non-conforming group of people. !
!
We advised:
Ignore cohorts. Focus on consumer insights. If you get (or write) a brief saying
‘We want to speak to Millennials’, push back - hard. !
What happened:
We think it’s fair to say that perhaps this one didn’t go to plan. !
How did we do:
WE GOT IT SO WRONG.
YOU’RE ALL OBSESSED WITH MILLENNIALS.
SERIOUSLY, THIS HAS GOT TO STOP.
#OgilvyTrends2017
2016 Predictions:
How Did We Do?
12. #OgilvyTrends2017
On top of our three major trend predictions last year, we also
included a section entitled ‘Bonus Noodles’. !
!
For the newcomers, Bonus Noodles are ideas and trends that
we’re thinking about but are made up of limited data points,
hunches, conjecture, or a combination of all three. !
!
This one page round-up tells us a) if we were right and b) why
they’re probably just noodles in the first place. !
Noodle 3: Influencer Agencies
Noodle 2: Twitter Erosion
Noodle 1: Distributed Content
We said we marketers needed to stop looking at
website visits as the number one metric for content
success. !
!
In 2016, this is still number one. However, while this
hasn’t changed, marketers using true ROI metrics
such as sales leads are on the increase (jumping
from 5th to 3rd in the metric tables). !
We said users are down and the platform will soon
be under siege from competitors encroaching on
the spaces Twitter would call its heartland. !
!
We wanted to be wrong on this, and we’ll come
back to it later in this document. !
We said influencer agencies would continue to grow
and that the industry for these intermediaries would
grow to be lucrative. And that’s pretty much what
happened. !
!
!
2016 Noodles:
How Did We Do?
#OgilvyTrends2017
16. #OgilvyTrends2017
Messenger App Growth / Usage
Monthly active users for top 4 social networks and messaging apps
Source: Companies.
Business Insider.
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
0
Millions
1Q20154Q20132Q2012
Top 4 messaging apps
Top 4 social networks
This chart is from September 2015.!
Every Chatbot company, agency, and
start-up worth its salt is using this. !
For good reason: it demonstrates
exactly why we are where we are. !
And in July 2016, Facebook
Messenger hit 1bn MAUs. !
In short: we’re spending more and
more time in messaging apps. !
17. #OgilvyTrends2017
‘On-demand’ Consumers Expect Brands to Follow Suit
Just like one of Willy Wonka’s least favourite guests, Veruca
Salt, today’s consumers want everything right now. !
!
Thanks to the likes of Netflix, Uber, and Airbnb, this ‘on-
demand consumer’ has grown used to on-demand products
and services - and they now want on-demand CUSTOMER
SERVICE. !
!
Did we mention they wanted it right now?!
!
And while Twitter is slowly becoming a platform for current
events and/or news - customer service is still a key component
to its platform. !
!
However, against the backdrop of an upswing in message app
penetration, it’s clear to spot the next big frontier for
troubleshooting consumer issues - and it’s already installed on
your phone. !
18. #OgilvyTrends2017
And Message Platforms Are Stepping Up
Between platform launches, APIs, beta
tracks, and bot stores - nearly every
messenger platform today has (or has
plans to launch) a chatbot solution. !
Facebook launched its API in April 2016. In
the same month, Kik, (live with basic
chatbots since 2014), launched its own bot
store.!
Telegram soon followed and, by the end of
the year, Twitter had launched its own bot-
proposition, delivered via Direct Message. !
The one glaring omission is WhatsApp, !
but we’re certain that’ll soon change… !
20. #OgilvyTrends2017
The Numbers Are Crazy
33,000
The number of chatbots on Facebook Messenger !
(as of Sept 2016)!
1bn
Monthly Active Users on Facebook Messenger!
1bn
Monthly Active Users on WhatsApp!
80% !
The percentage of marketing leaders* who said they were
planning on chatbot and/or AI solutions by 2020 (that’s only
three years away!)!
! *800 marketing / CSOs / sales execs across Netherlands,France, UK,
South Africa in manufacturing/hi-tech, online retail, telcos
21. #OgilvyTrends2017
And Consumer App Downloads Are Too…
But in the wrong way. !
It is a fact that people simply don’t install apps
anymore. And even when users do install an app,
95% move onto other things within 90 days.
However, with users in their billions, messaging
platforms are the number one app for consumers
all across the globe.!
One-to-one messaging, at scale, is impossible. !
Which is where and why the Chatbot opportunity
has come from. !
23. #OgilvyTrends2017
Think: Where Could Chatbots Help You Today?
SALES &
SERVICES
SUBJECT
EXPERTISE
CARE &
SUPPORT
CONTENT
SUBSCRIPTIONS
EXPERIENCES
/ UTILITIES
Depending on your platform of choice, there are possibly up to five key areas that chat bots !
could help your business: !
24. #OgilvyTrends2017
Play: Markets In Everything
Bot building platforms are appearing
with varying levels of coding required !
to use them, each with their own
methods, platform support, and, more
often than not, bot-store.!
Many of these tools are free and / or
cheap to use - and can help you get to
grips with what is and is not possible
quickly and easily.!
Once you have an initial understanding,
then it might be time to call in some
help.!
25. #OgilvyTrends2017
Do: Get Inspired By Our Friends In The East
Facebook Messenger is at least
three years behind message
platforms in the East.!
!
More than 500 million people sent
money through these message
platforms during the 2016 Chinese
New Year period. !
!
The West is catching up but bots
have been around on WeChat for
example (700 million monthly
active users), since 2013.!
!
If you’re looking for inspiration,
look to China (look up ‘Xiao Ice’ for
one - there are many others). !
Facebook Messenger
Platform 2016
via +RehabStudio!
26. #OgilvyTrends2017
But Remember
1. Like the app gold rush before it, there will be dross, there will be wallpaper, and there will be snake oil.!
2. If you’re thinking ‘I need a bot’, you’re doing it wrong. Think about a business problem first, consider where
your consumers are today, then see if a chatbot could be the right solution. !
3. (Most) Chatbots are for life, not just for Christmas. There are rich data opportunities with a good chatbot
execution. Don’t squander the chance to learn more about your consumer than ever before. !
4. If you build it, they won’t just come; think about how you’ll scale. From Facebook ad units to ATL, !
how will you let people know about your bot? !
5. Your agencies should be all over this (if they’re not, come talk to us - ahem) so if you’re unsure, ask.!
27. #OgilvyTrends2017
Trend 2: The Abdication Of Ethical Decision Making
‘What happens when we hand over our choices to robots and algorithms?’
or
‘Did you think we were here to have fun?’
#OgilvyTrends2017
29. #OgilvyTrends2017
Automation Surging
Facebook Messenger Bots are driving a consumer-facing
uptick. There are tens of thousands of bots now in the wild. !
And many more are on the way. Yet. the most significant
moves are arguably hidden from view.!
#OgilvyTrends2017
30. #OgilvyTrends2017
Algorithms Choose Our
2016 elections in the UK and USA highlighted the
unforeseen problem of algorithmic content serving.!
Users experience strong confirmation bias when
machines serve new content based on previous
preference.!
And make themselves ripe for exploitation by
opportunists and extremists.!
(Fake) News
#OgilvyTrends2017
31. #OgilvyTrends2017
Driverless Cars: Arriving Soon
Google (aka Alphabet - now via Waymo),
Apple, Tesla, Ford, and other traditional car
makers are all developing their own
driverless solution.!
The first generation is due on the road by
2020. And the second gen — the real
breakthrough — is due 2023.!
Driverless deliveries are already happening.
Budweiser and Otto delivered 50,000 bottles
nearly 200kms in October 2016. !
Already Here
#OgilvyTrends2017
32. #OgilvyTrends2017
And Driverless Food…
Samsung’s new fridge can display its contents on your
phone thanks to its internal camera, so you can check
whether you’re out of Dijon mustard. (Do we finally get to
learn when the light goes out?)!
And soon, it will simply reorder items automatically when
you run out. !
It also plays movies, provides the weather forecast, and
looks after the family to do list.!
#OgilvyTrends2017
33. #OgilvyTrends2017
…and Driverless Homes…
Amazon’s Smart Home store provides
gadgets that automate heating and cooling,
keeping track of your pets, and locking your
doors.!
All manageable from your phone… or not.
The machines can just manage it for you..!
#OgilvyTrends2017
34. #OgilvyTrends2017
…and Driverless Jobs
It’s not just the dirty, dull and dangerous that
will go.!
Amazon’s new Go concept and McDonald’s
automated ordering is just the start.!
CNBC suggests that pharmacists, lawyers,
and journalists may be the next to find their
jobs automated.!
#OgilvyTrends2017
35. #OgilvyTrends2017
We can teach them our preferences through
machine learning, like the MIT Moral Machine for
driverless cars. But this amounts to majority rule.!
Or we can appoint a body of experts to apply the
best ethical philosophies, but this is essentially
oligarchy.!
Or we can embrace a combination: Human choices
vetted by a panel of experts.!
And many others, each with their own flaws.!
So How Do Machines
Choose For Us?
#OgilvyTrends2017
36. #OgilvyTrends2017
Once We Give Up Control,
Others make initial choices for us. What if we disagree?!
Once programmed, machines will learn and evolve too. Taking
individuals further from the decisions.!
And then there’s government. The potential for interference in our
lives grows as control becomes easier and more efficient. Local
governments to control brown outs by turning off everyone’s
aircon? Nutrition authorities to ensure we’re all eating enough
salad by tracking the content of our fridge — and our garbage?!
IoT devices are notoriously easy to hack. What happens when
automated choices become destructive?!
And it’s harder to hold individuals accountable for transgressions
when the source of bad behaviour is easier to disguise and many
more steps removed from the scene.!
It Never Comes Back
#OgilvyTrends2017
37. #OgilvyTrends2017
Some Sectors May Already
U.S. FAA concerned that pilots’ manual flight
skills are being dulled by automation.!
They believe the over-reliance has
contributed to at least two fatal crashes.!
Decision-making handed over to machines
in a way that’s difficult to recover.!
Be Over-Reliant
#OgilvyTrends2017
39. #OgilvyTrends2017
Defining The Abdication Of Ethical Decision Making
As automation, robotics and, eventually, AI play more and more active roles in our lives, the role of human !
decision-making will inevitably decline.!
Handing over control doesn’t just mean handing over the mechanical activities of daily life. It means handing over
choices — some big, some tiny — about what’s right and wrong. !
Ethics are full of nuance. Binary decision-making leads to polarisation. (See, e.g., Brexit vote.) But it’s hard for
automation to do nuance well. AI may change this, but we’re not there yet. !
So how do we embrace automation while still protecting the ethical frameworks that make and keep us human? !
How can we better define the attributes that hold society together, when there is so much dividing us at the moment?!
40. #OgilvyTrends2017
What The Hell Does This Have To Do With Marketing?
Everything. !
!
Choice architectures will change rapidly as less decision-making is required.!
Ethical standards will rapidly evolve — and brands will need to be ready. Be prepared to be caught — frequently —
between traditionalists and tech progressives.!
Increased polarisation makes it harder for brands to have mass appeal. But multiple narratives to multiple
audiences makes it hard to stay true to a single set of values.!
42. #OgilvyTrends2017
Businesses (especially manufacturers) need to define the basic principles of human ethics that must sit at
the core of any bot, fridge or car they create. In the rush to market, we can’t overlook the importance of the
choices that we’ll be asking others to abdicate.!
Consider how to solicit and consider input into those choices. And develop a defensible process for
making them. Then, be ready to be transparent about rationale, even if you’re not prepared to be proactive
(and consider being proactive).!
Consider Ethics Carefully In Product And Tool Development
43. #OgilvyTrends2017
Brands need to be prepared to live these ethics through their own comms and products, and to defend them as part of
their brand values.!
Define principles, values and standards now, and be prepared to live with them for the long term.!
Be transparent about the origins and rationale behind values and ethics. Over explain. Repeat as often as necessary.!
Prepare for potential ethical issues that might arise in the future.!
Global companies and brands have the hardest choices to make, as ethical norms vary from one culture to another.
But in the future, it may be more important to be true to yourself and explain why, then to give in to local custom. In a
world with no cultural walls, brands must assume that everything is everywhere.!
And make friends with some ethics and philosophy experts. You’re going to need them. (2020 trend prediction:
Corporate demand for philosophy graduates reaches highest level since Aristotle.)!
Define Your Own Ethics Before They’re Defined for You
44. #OgilvyTrends2017
Pivot Towards B2H
Comms approaches are traditionally defined by B2B or B2C. But human considerations outweigh all else. You need to
connect with them on a human level. An ethics is at the core of what it means to be human. So you have to live them —
put them front and centre.!
Which means your human voice has to be front and centre too. !
Develop a narrative that’s about more than just product. Communicate proactively and frequently. Build the story before
questions start.!
In a fragmented media environment, traditional media voices are less relevant. You need your own voice to cut through.!
45. #OgilvyTrends2017
Trend 3: A Video First World
‘You know, silent video means they can’t hear you screaming’
#OgilvyTrends2017
47. #OgilvyTrends2017
Video: It’s A Thing
A quick history lesson:
2014
Facebook puts video as a priority (cue:
newsfeed changes and algorithm
updates). Then suddenly, out of the blue
that summer: a huge charitable event
known as the ALS Ice Bucket Challenge
just happens to go viral. !
2015 !
Other platforms see the opportunity step
up with their own video offerings. Twitter,
Instagram, Snapchat - if you can download
it, you can watch/create/share video on it. !
49. #OgilvyTrends2017
#OgilvyTrends2017
Defining a ‘Video First World’ We see a world that
is video-first with
video at the heart
of all our apps
and services
Mark Zuckerberg, !
Facebook Earnings Call, July 2016
Fast forward to 2016 and Zuck and co are intent on taking
us to [video] hell in a hand[held] basket. !
The quote opposite, by MZ himself, is interesting by way of
its structure. There are two key parts here ‘video-first’ and
‘all our apps and services.’!
Video first means video will get the priority. No matter the
platform. All our apps and services means everything that
Facebook owns: the Facebook platform itself, Messenger,
WhatsApp, Instagram, Oculus… !
All of it: video-first - because Mark Zuckerberg said so.!
Sidenote: Cisco predict that by 2019, 80% of the world’s internet traffic
will be, you guessed it: video.
”
”
50. #OgilvyTrends2017
Another Thing Facebook is
As part of its continuing mission to destroy all other social
platforms, Facebook is going after one of the few remaining
heartlands Twitter has left: LIVE content.!
The best and easiest way to do that is with it’s new LIVE
product and Facebook is throwing so much money at this it is
unheard of. Both from a media perspective and an innovation
angle (Live 360 - launching imminently).!
A Facebook spokesperson told us they hadn’t seen ‘a
company-wide pivot like this’ since it decided it wanted to be
‘mobile first’ (note: over 50% of Facebook’s ad revenue now
comes from mobile). !
In short: Facebook Live is a big bet from Facebook and it’s
throwing everything it has at it to make it successful. !
Set On Us All Doing…
#OgilvyTrends2017
51. #OgilvyTrends2017
And let’s not forget about YouTube
After a year in the wilderness, licking its
wounds and working out what the hell
happened with Facebook video, YouTube
is pushing back.!
Going up against the Facebook
dominance, YouTube is now courting
brands with its effectiveness prowess and
crowing loudly about what does (and does
not) constitute a ‘view.’!
And quite right too.!
One to watch - this one is barely
getting started…
Disclosure: Google and YouTube are clients of Ogilvy PR in the UK.
52. #OgilvyTrends2017
But just what kind of video are we talking about?
360?
Landscape?
Circular?
Square?
Portrait?
Canvas?
Augmented?
Virtual?
Panoramic?
53. #OgilvyTrends2017
But just what kind of video are we talking about?
360?
Landscape?
Circular?
Square?
Portrait?
Canvas?
Augmented?
Virtual?
Panoramic?
We are witnessing the collapse of traditional video formats
#OgilvyTrends2017
55. #OgilvyTrends2017
Preparing for a ‘Video First World’
“We see a world that is video-first
with video at the heart of all our apps
and services”
Facebook Earnings Call, July 2016
The main consumer-facing digital platforms
are shifting.!
For the content-snacking generation, video is
now starter, main, and dessert. !
To not have any kind of video support and/or
strategy that lives with and/or complements
your existing communications would be a
fool’s errand. !
It’s time to learn to love video.!
56. #OgilvyTrends2017
• Got a TVC? Get/cut/use all footage !
• Shooting a TVC? Get someone there shooting with a smartphone.!
• Can’t afford a TVC? Shoot something yourself!
• Get clever/useful with video apps that can give you the creative edge that you need!
• Publish to Facebook? Use Square Video!
• Got a ton of cash? Do something awesome in VR!
• Got a small amount of cash? Look into 360 video!
Preparing for a ‘Video First World’
60. #OgilvyTrends2017
After recognising that it was time to sell, Twitter
couldn’t find a buyer in 2016. !
Google, Apple and Salesforce, along with a rumoured
bevy of other interested parties, took a pass.!
And the consideration of the deal reportedly revealed
continuing divisions in the Twitter Board.!
No Sale
61. #OgilvyTrends2017
Well-loved, but not quite loved-enough, Vine wasn’t
part of Twitter’s core strategy, so they walked away,
leaving many in tears.!
And many others wondering where to get their sport
highlights.!
Vine Withers
62. #OgilvyTrends2017
Facebook prioritised Live in 2016, at Twitter’s expense. !
By including Live moments in Notifications, Facebook is
giving its offering a big boost of viewers and users.!
Some publishers report they’re already attracting huge
viewerships — and revenue — from their FB Live shows.!
Twitter is fighting back. Live is a key part of its strategy,
and it’s driving solid performance. Users seems to enjoy,
and advertisers seem to getting some value. This is an
area to watch going forward.!
Fighting for their LIVE
63. #OgilvyTrends2017
Facebook Messenger in general, and its bot offering
in particular are direct challengers to Twitter’s
supremacy on social customer service.!
Twitter is rumoured to have its own bot offering on the
way, but customers will decide this battle. Where’s the
best place to complain?!
Customer Care Less
64. #OgilvyTrends2017
Trolls reemerged as a top issue for Twitter, with
bad headlines popping up throughout the year.
And spurring big questions, not just about the
future of Twitter, but of the whole Internet.!
Twitter needs to find a solution, especially in light
of progress that Instagram announced last month.
But it’s hard for Twitter to balance its commitment
to free speech with the need for automated
interventions. !
We feel some sympathy for Twitter here. Facebook
(and its ecosystem) have made no such
commitments, so anti-trolling and anti-spam
interventions are often ham-handed and
controversial. Twitter lets the conversation flow,
and invites us to live with the dialogue. This is
another area to watch in months to come.!
Trolls Under the Bridge
65. #OgilvyTrends2017
Arguably Twitter’s biggest troll, Trump got himself
elected President of the United States. !
To many, this brought Twitter to a new low. !
But it also served as a powerful reminder about the
potency of the platform.!
Trick Lost to a Trump Card
66. #OgilvyTrends2017
Through deep data analysis, publishers like BuzzFeed
have concluded that Twitter can still stoke interest in
content.!
Twitter remains the first place that many influencers
turn for news and breaking stories.!
The potential for it to influence conversation and
coverage is still immense.!
Collecting massive
amounts of data over
time has allowed
BuzzFeed to learn,
among other things, that
while ideas get an early
start on Twitter, they go
wide and become
popular on Facebook.
- Noah Robischon, Fast Company!
Twitter: Still a Buzz Starter
”
”
#OgilvyTrends2017
68. #OgilvyTrends2017
Twitter continues to struggle to find articulate its place in the world now and in the future.!
Yet, they still have an active and significant user base. And that user base has demonstrated that the platform can have
a big impact on politics, brands, technology, celeb culture, movies, media, and publishing. Its potential to influence is
still substantial.!
In the absence of a sale, we predict that Twitter will narrow its focus in 2017, to focus on two key areas: data and
influence.!
On data, Twitter has a huge amount to offer. They’ll move to monetise this more directly and more aggressively. The
free / semi-free lunch on the firehose may be over.!
On influence, Trump was as much a gift as a curse. Others will recognise the opportunity that Twitter presents, and rush
to seize it. Live will be a key part of Twitter’s strategy here. But it’s hard to anticipate whether it can offer a sufficiently
disruptive product solution to attract users away from Facebook en masse.!
Defining Twitter Retrench
70. #OgilvyTrends2017
We’re over reliant on Twitter right now for data on audience interests and the real-time conversation. More than
80% of reported social conversation volume in commonly used tools like Sysomos, Brandwatch and Crimson
Hexagon comes from Twitter. !
If access to Twitter data was reduced, too many brands (and the data tools that inform decision-making) would
be flying blind. !
Brands must widen their sources of data and insight. That might mean paying more for a wider range of data. !
It also means pushing vendors — both tool makers and platforms themselves — for more access to data and
insights.!
Expand Your Data Feed
71. #OgilvyTrends2017
For some brands, it’s fine to aim to be influential on Twitter — to build a following and distribute content that
people will happily consume and share.!
But it’s time to reconsider Twitter as a platform for influence. So success isn’t just about publishing. It’s about
partnering with influencers to co-create and reach their audiences.!
Look for strong, second-tier and emerging influencers and help them make something that’s truly valuable.!
Brands also need to think more expansively about audience segments. Brexit and Trump showed us an
establishment vs. anti-establishment world. And there are countless cohorts among the larger ones. Brands need
to continue developing content for specific audiences, and optimising the stuff that performs best.!
Finally, consider including Twitter as part of your Live strategy. Two cameras is no more difficult than one —
especially when they’re both phones anyway. So why not do both? It can’t hurt. !
Reconsider Your Influencer Strategy
74. #OgilvyTrends2017
Facebook Metrics in 2016
How many times Facebook messed up its metrics this year (that we know about)?!
!
Let us count the ways: !
1. Overstated the average video viewing time by up to 80% (for TWO YEARS)
2. Overstated how long people spent reading Instant Articles
3. Overcounted views with Branded organic posts (double counting repeat visitors)
4. Overstated website and app referrals
5. Video Through Rate (VTR) under-reported
6. Under-reported Facebook reactions to Live video content
7. Mobile search miscalculations
!
All of the above was uncovered in Q4 of 2016. But still, there’s another 213* other metrics by which Facebook can be
measured, so that must be all fine. !
*Facebook has 220 metrics that it shares with brands measure effectiveness - and people say ROI is difficult
76. #OgilvyTrends2017
Facebook knows this is unacceptable
Brownie points for coming clean, Facebook (although you have to wonder exactly how
much additional money it made in regards to the miscalculation of viewing times for TWO
WHOLE YEARS), very admirable. !
However, to convince media buyers that there’s genuine gold left in them hills, in 2017
Facebook will have to give itself up to objective third-party measurement and
verification of its numbers. !
Especially if there’s a lingering issue about how it measures - something that its
competitors must be acutely aware of. !
Combine the above with the ongoing political battle (and more*) with all things post-truth
and/or fake news, you can see why Facebook could be at best, accused of not playing by
the rules and worst, marking its own homework to put itself in a better light. !
At the moment, Facebook is not down with letting anyone behind the curtain - and that’s
the definition of the problem right there. !
*Zuckerberg said Facebook didn’t (and couldn’t) influence the 2016 US election. All that ad space we buy in the newsfeed though, that works. 100%.
78. #OgilvyTrends2017
Measurement, Measurement, Measurement!
IGNORE the 220-odd measurements that Facebook offer you and revert to your original toolset. Be that brand-tracking,
lead generation, or brand awareness. Don’t just hit post on a meme and come back in a week and count the likes and
shares just to see… what? !
Exactly. !
Instead, focus on the metrics that matter to your brand or business or agency. !
This is such an easy one but we’ve seen it time and time again: brand marketers get so caught up in the like-chasing that
they don’t stop to realise what impact (if any) the endless meat-grinder of the Facebook news feed actually has on the
day to day business. !
And that is a troublesome road. For all involved. !
If you do that, we’ll keep banging the drum for Facebook, and the other main social platforms for that matter, to open
themselves up for true external and objective auditing. !
Wouldn’t that be nice? !
81. #OgilvyTrends2017
The Best Bonus of All
For the past few years, we’ve ended with a few thoughts that
we didn’t quite have the time, data or energy to land.!
To be honest, 2016 took it out of us. The madness of Brexit
and Trump was a constant sap on emotional and mental
energy. So there weren’t going to be any noodles this year.
We just hadn’t come up with any.!
But on December 10th, just as we were putting the finishing
touches on this report, James welcomed his new daughter,
Bobbie, into the world. !
Reckoning that there was no possibility of identifying a better
bonus noodle than that, Marshall elected just to call it a day,
and send some cigars, FAO Mr. Whatley, by express courier.!
Oh, and to say a massive congratulations to his friend and
co-author.!
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That’s all folks.
Got questions? Send them our way:
marshall.manson@ogilvy.com/ @marshallmanson
james.whatley@ogilvy.com / @whatleydude
Key Digital Trends for 2017
By Marshall Manson & James Whatley
#OgilvyTrends2017