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Cognitive Decision Support
Systems
Alzheimer:
98.353 Wissenschaftliche Artikel
8.467 Wörter/Artikel
250 Wörter/Minute durchschnittliche
Lesegeschwindigkeit
229 Arbeitstage/Jahr
30 Jahre lesen
Alzheimer:
98.353 Wissenschaftliche Artikel
8.467 Wörter/Artikel
250 Wörter/Minute durchschnittliche
Lesegeschwindigkeit
229 Arbeitstage/Jahr
30 Jahre lesen
Alzheimer:
8.187 Neue Artikel/Monat
250.000 Neue Artikel nach 30 Jahren
76.4 Jahre lesen
Nachrichten:
Bis zu 20.000 Nachrichten/Tag (nur Bloomberg)
Dazu Blogs, Tweets, Facebook, ...
Krankheiten:
15.600 Unterschiedliche Diagnosen
< 8 Minuten pro Patient
Wir übersehen Muster
‣Princeton-Prof. Burton
Malkiel:
“A blindfolded monkey
throwing darts at a
newspaper’s financial pages
could select a portfolio that
would do just as well as one
carefully selected by
experts.”
Wir übersehen Muster
‣Studie von Research
Affiliates
“Malkiel was wrong. The
monkeys have done a much
better job than both the
experts and the stock
market.”
Wir übersehen Muster
‣Langzeitstudie von Tetlock
‣284 Experten zu politischen,
ökonomischen
Entwicklungen
‣82.361 Vorhersagen
‣Schwächer als
Zufallsverteilung
Decision Support Systems
(DSS)
‣Symbiose mit Menschen
‣Wissen sammeln, organisieren, visualisieren
‣Modelle, Prognosen, Szenarien
‣Data Mining/ Machine Learning
Cognitive DSS
‣Nutzen Natural Language Processing (NLP) um
Wissen aus Texten zu extrahieren
‣Haben menschenähnliches konzeptionelles
Verständnis
‣Kommunizieren natürlicher mit Menschen
1ms = $100m profit
clueda.trader
‣Echtzeit-Analyse von Nachrichten
‣Filterung auf Finanzmarkt-relevante
Events
‣Entwickelt für Baader Bank
Semantische Analyse
Example Sentence
Relation 1 Relation 2
Semantische Muster
COMPANY COMPANYPrevious knowledge
CRITICISM
EVENT
is a is a
criticized
Muster verstehen
Ambiguität
‣455 unterschiedliche Interpretationen für den
Satz:
„List sales of the products produced in 1973 with
the products produced in 1972.“
Martin, W. A., Church, K. W., and Patil, R. S., Preliminary analysis of the breadth-first parsing
algorithm: theoretical and experimental results, 1987.
Cognitive Computing
‣Ambiguität annehmen
‣Big-Data-Technologien nutzen
‣Eigene effiziente Implementationen
‣Alternativen berechnen und gewichten
clueda.trader
‣Semantische Aufbereitung komplexer
Informationen
‣Deutliche Minimierung von Verlustgeschäften
‣Über 6.800 seltene Krankheiten
‣Teilweise bekommt Arzt Krankheit nur einmal
in seinem Leben zu sehen
‣Große Archive von Patientenakten
Diagnose DSS
Relevanz von
Kontextinformationen
VW “same profit as last year”
published
expect
Analysts “much higher profit” for VW
News A
News B
Text
Inhalt
ContextKontext
Semantische
Muster
Reasoning
Stichwortsuchen
Reasoning
Semantische Netzwerke
Analysts
.......
......
.....
Interest rates
.....
VW
Profit VW
share price
VW
........
....
published <same>
expect <higher>
influence
influences
Reasoning
‣Logik
‣Automatic Inference
‣Artificial Intelligence
‣Statistik
‣Machine Learning
‣Mustererkennung
‣Ranking Algorithmen
Morbus Pompe
‣ Fortschreitende Muskelschwäche (vor allem
Atemmuskulatur, Skelettmuskulatur)
‣ 100 – 200 diagnostizierte Menschen in Deutschland
‣ Kohort-Studien lassen tatsächlich ca. 900 erkrankte
Menschen vermuten
Morbus Pompe
‣ Kollaboration mit Friedrich Baur Institut (Klinikum der
Universität München)
‣ 7 der 20 identifizierten Patienten waren für Untersuchungen
erreichbar
‣ Bei 5 konnte Morbus Pompe nachgewiesen werden, 2
waren Anlagenträger
90.000 Documents Information Compression Semantic Identification 20 Patients
Clinical
Information
System
Individual approach
…
digital/scanned
documents
Redundancy removal
Automatic approach
Diagnosis Niemann Pick Type C
‣Cognitive DSS helfen Menschen schon heute
bessere Entscheidungen zu treffen
‣Durch NLP werden riesige Mengen
unstrukturierter Information zugänglich
‣Big-Data-Technologien und effizientere
Implementationen ermöglichen Echtzeit-
Analysen
‣Zukünftige Bereiche: Recht, Management,
Politik, ...
Cognitive DSS
p.blohm@clueda.com
Quellen
Referenzen
‣Slide 8 Behandlungszeit http://haetten-sie-gewusst.blogspot.de/2010/02/wie-viel-zeit-ein-arzt-durchschnittlich.html
‣Slide 8 Anzahl Krankheiten http://www.aok-bv.de/presse/medienservice/politik/index_02010.html
‣Slide 9 Malkiel, B. G., A Random Walk Down Wall Street: The Time-Tested Strategy for Successful Investing, 1973.
‣Slide 10 http://www.forbes.com/sites/rickferri/2012/12/20/any-monkey-can-beat-the-market/
‣Slide 12 Mlodinow, L., The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives, 2008.
‣Slide 17 Profit for 1ms time advantage http://www.informationweek.com/wall-streets-quest-to-process-data-at-th/199200297
Bilder
‣Slide 2 http://www.inspectorinsight.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/istock_000003253995medium3.jpg
‣Slide 5 http://static.businessinsider.com/image/51d7c69aeab8ea441f00001f/image.jpg
‣Slide 7 http://classconnection.s3.amazonaws.com/669/flashcards/823669/jpg/when1330403134315.jpg
‣Slide 9 http://i280.photobucket.com/albums/kk167/Specalt/Random%20stuff/monkey-darts.jpg
‣Slide 12 http://bigapplepest.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/rat_pic.jpg
‣Slide 16 http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/72/Battle_of_Waterloo_1815.PNG/1024px-Battle_of_Waterloo_1815.PNG
‣Slide 22 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apple_(disambiguation)
‣Slide 28 http://www.healthcare-computing.de/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/papierakte.jpg
‣Slide 34 http://www.designthinkingblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/thinking.gif
‣Slide 35 http://www.lysosolutions.de/uploads/pics/pompe-patient_adult.jpg
Vielen Dank für Ihre
Aufmerksamkeit!

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Philipp Blohm - Cognitive Decision Support Systems