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Dr. Thilenius Management GmbH
Dr. Thilenius Management GmbH
Das Werk ist in allen seinen Teilen urheberrechtlich geschützt. Jede Verwertung oder Weitergabe an Dritte ist ohne
Zustimmung des Autors unzulässig. Das gilt insbesondere für Vervielfältigungen, Übersetzungen, Mikroverfilmungen und die
Einspeicherung in und Verarbeitung durch elektronische Systeme.
Where we come from
Dr. Thilenius Management GmbH
Bankhaus Doertenbach, Königstraße 43 b, 1721 bis 1931, seither Family Office
Risiken bei Anlagen in Wertpapieren
• Die Mindestanlagedauer beträgt zum Ausgleich von Kursschwankungen 3 – 5 Jahre.
Aktien können steigen und fallen. Eine in der Vergangenheit erzielte Wertentwicklung
ist kein Indikator für zukünftige Entwicklungen. Trotz sorgfältiger Auswahl besteht
keine Gewähr für eine bestimmte Entwicklung von Konjunkturen, Volkswirtschaften,
Währungen, Märkten, Branchen, Unternehmensgewinnen, Dividenden und Kursen.
• Unvorhersehbare Ereignisse in den Volkswirtschaften wie z.B. die Ölkrisen 1973/74
bzw. 1979/80 oder die Terroranschläge vom 11. September 2001 können jederzeit
eintreten und trotz bisher guter Entwicklung der Unternehmen Kurseinbrüche
Dr. Thilenius Management GmbH
eintreten und trotz bisher guter Entwicklung der Unternehmen Kurseinbrüche
verursachen. Ebenso können solche Ereignisse bei einzelnen Unternehmen wie z.B. die
Bilanzskandale bei Enron oder Ahold 2002 oder die Abschreibungen bei der IKB 2007
Gewinneinbrüche, Kurseinbrüche oder Dividendenausfälle verursachen.
• Bei festverzinslichen Papieren können Inflation und starke Zinssteigerungen wie z.B.
1981 oder 1990 Kursverluste verursachen. Überraschende Bonitätsverschlechterungen
eines Emittenten können zum Ausfall von Coupons oder Rückzahlungen führen.
• Kursentwicklungen verstehen sich vor Gebühren der Bank und Vermögensverwaltung.
• Siehe dazu „Basisinformationen für Wertpapiervermögensanlagen“, Seite 75 ff.
Economics
Dr. Thilenius Management GmbH
10-Year Bunds vs Japanese
Goverment Bonds
Dr. Thilenius Management GmbH
5-Year Bunds Yield since 1980
Dr. Thilenius Management GmbH
Median PMI´s Eurozone, USA, China
Dr. Thilenius Management GmbH
GDP Growth and IFO Index
Dr. Thilenius Management GmbH
Economic Growth 2014E
2014e 2015e
Eurozone 1% 1,20%
Dr. Thilenius Management GmbH
Eurozone 1% 1,20%
Germany 2% 1,30%
USA 3% 3,20%
10 Year Treasuries USA
Dr. Thilenius Management GmbH
RISKS
Dr. Thilenius Management GmbH
Soviet Union 2.0 ?
Dr. Thilenius Management GmbH
1914
Dr. Thilenius Management GmbH
Dr. Thilenius Management GmbH
Dr. Thilenius Management GmbH
Disruptive Potential
• Ukraine
• Baltics: Strong Russian Minorities
100% Dependence on Russian Gas
• Poland
Dr. Thilenius Management GmbH
• Poland
Energy Diversification well underway
• Western Europe
1/3 of gas from Russia but Oil und Gas Exports
constitute 52% of Russian State Budget
BASF from 1987
Dr. Thilenius Management GmbH
Solution
• Build European Pipeline Network
• Diversification of purchases
Norway, Algeria, Libya
Dr. Thilenius Management GmbH
Norway, Algeria, Libya
• When Gazprom contracts come up for
renewal reduce volume and maturities
Investment Implication
• PICKS
Pipeline:Vallourec
Software: SAP
Dr. Thilenius Management GmbH
Palo Alto Networks
• PANS
Tanks: Reinmetall
General Dynamics
Bond Market
Dr. Thilenius Management GmbH
Expectations for BBB and BB Corporates with
Different Maturities
Dr. Thilenius Management GmbH
Bonds
• Bund 10 Years 1,5 %
• TAX 26 %
• Inflation 2 %
Dr. Thilenius Management GmbH
• Inflation 2 %
• Thyssen Krupp 4 %
• Kion 5 %
• Portugal Telecom 5 %
Spanish Government Bond
2013 - 2023
Dr. Thilenius Management GmbH
5,375% Voith GmbH
Dr. Thilenius Management GmbH
4,625% Otto GmbH
Dr. Thilenius Management GmbH
Equity Markets
Dr. Thilenius Management GmbH
Dow Jones History
Dr. Thilenius Management GmbH
Dow Jones since 1970
Dr. Thilenius Management GmbH
Breakout Following
13 Years Sideways Movement
Dr. Thilenius Management GmbH
Dow Jones 5 Years
Dr. Thilenius Management GmbH
Gold 5 Years
Dr. Thilenius Management GmbH
Gold since 2001
Dr. Thilenius Management GmbH
Gold since 1970
Dr. Thilenius Management GmbH
Comparison since 2001
Dr. Thilenius Management GmbH
5 Year inverse relationship
Dr. Thilenius Management GmbH
Inverse relationship since 1970
Dr. Thilenius Management GmbH
Markets in 2014
Dr. Thilenius Management GmbH
• P/E Ratios undemanding
• Forward P/E :
Dr. Thilenius Management GmbH
S & P 500: 15
DAX: 13
• Well within historic Mid-Cycle Patterns
• Presidential Cycle
• 2nd Year
Dr. Thilenius Management GmbH
• Mid Term Elections
Dow Jones 1998
Dr. Thilenius Management GmbH
Non Cyclical Growth Stocks
• 15% - 20% earning per share growth
• Price Earnings to Growth Ratio
Dr. Thilenius Management GmbH
USA and Canada
Dr. Thilenius Management GmbH
Actavis
Dr. Thilenius Management GmbH
Constellation Brands Inc.
Dr. Thilenius Management GmbH
Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc
Dr. Thilenius Management GmbH
Europe
Dr. Thilenius Management GmbH
Eurofins Scientific
Dr. Thilenius Management GmbH
Fuchs Petrolub
Dr. Thilenius Management GmbH
Coloplast
Dr. Thilenius Management GmbH
Dividends BASF
Dr. Thilenius Management GmbH
BASF Dividendenentw icklung
0,00 €
0,30 €
0,60 €
0,90 €
1,20 €
1,50 €
1,80 €
2,10 €
2,40 €
2,70 €
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Emerging Markets
Dr. Thilenius Management GmbH
Ambev
Dr. Thilenius Management GmbH
BRF S.A.
Dr. Thilenius Management GmbH
Coca-Cola Femsa
Dr. Thilenius Management GmbH
Petra Foods
Dr. Thilenius Management GmbH
Avoid
• Empire Building
• Government Intervention
Dr. Thilenius Management GmbH
Empire Building
Dr. Thilenius Management GmbH
57
SolarWorld
Dr. Thilenius Management GmbH
Thanks for your Attention!
Dr. Thilenius Management GmbH

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Uncovering the Investment Strategy for Bonds, Equities and Gold in 2014 and Beyond by Georg Thilenius, Dr. Thilenius Management: Elite Summit 2014