meteorological hazard and risk assessment

2. (Comfort,2007)
cognition
• Detection of risk
• recognition and interpretation of
risk for the immediate context
and how to deal with.
communication
communication of risk to
multiple organizations in
a wider region
coordination
organization
and mobilization of a collective
control
community response
system to reduce risk
and respond to danger
4Cs
intergovernmental
crisis management system

3. Small boats should remain moored onshore.

4. Formed 27 April 2008
Dissipated 3 May 2008
Highest winds
3-minute sustained: 165 km/h
1-minute sustained: 215 km/h

5. When Cyclone Nargis struck Myanmar 10 years ago,
140,000 lives were lost
and 800,000 were displaced.
The category 4 storm slammed into Myanmar’s low-lying Irrawaddy Delta,
• People were unprepared for
what happened. Ninety percent
of housing in some villages
destroyed.
• Millions of people injured,
hungry and homeless. More
than 700,000 homes were fully
or partially destroyed. Nearly 75
percent of health clinics were
destroyed.

7. CYCLONE NARGIS WARNINGS WERE INADEQUATE
Disaster preparedness was extremely weak
no early warning system, shelters or
evacuation plans
Advance warnings grossly underestimated
the wind speeds and storm surge.

9. CYCLONE NARGIS:
The storm's 165 km/h winds blew the roofs off
hospitals, downed trees, and cut electricity to the
6.5 million in Yangon. Storm surge and torrential
rain caused local flooding.  138,373 Death toll
• FIVE REGIONS WERE DECLARED DISASTER ZONES.
• THE INITIAL EMERGENCY RESPONSE WAS SLOW, PARTLY BECAUSE
THE EXTENT OF THE DISASTER WAS GROSSLY UNDERESTIMATED.
• THE RULING MILITARY JUNTA WAS SLOW IN ASSESSING THE NEED
FOR INTERNATIONAL ASSISTANCE

10. USING WATER FOR A SHOWER BUDDHIST MONKS CLEARING ROAD
CYCLONE NARGIS: DOWNED TREES: TAKING SHELTER IN A BUDDHIST TEMPLE

11. MYANMAR, ALSO
KNOWN AS BURMA, HAS
BEEN UNDER MILITARY
RULE SINCE 1962.
46 years

12. Relief efforts were slowed for political reasons as Myanmar's
military rulers initially resisted large-scale international aid.
But Myanmar's military junta finally accepted aid
UN agencies ASEAN provide urgent relief through the framework of the ASEAN Agreement on Disaster
Management and Emergency Response (AADMER). Myanmar government agreed to work in coordination with
the ASEAN Secretariat to assemble and deploy an ASEAN Emergency Rapid Assessment Team (ERAT), made up
of government officials, disaster management experts and NGOs from member countries.

13. The structures ASEAN helped to set up to
bridge the void between Myanmar and the
world community could provide a model
for other regional blocs in areas where
responses to crises or conflicts are
hampered by complex politics, according to
aid workers and analysts.

14. Close negotiation with the Myanmar/Burma Ministers for Foreign Affairs and
Social Welfare, Relief and Resettlement, appealing for quick admission for more
ASEAN relief and rescue teams. Similar As Indonesian Bureau for Recovery and
Reconstruction Agency of Aceh and Nias, Indonesia (BRR), to offer assistance
based on the agency’s experience in the post-Indian Ocean Tsunami operation.
“Consensus, Negotiation and recommendation”
A UN-led mechanism for relief
and reconstruction effort in
Myanmar.
An ASEAN-led mechanism
The ‘Responsibility to Protect’ would
be invoked, the international
community would deliver aid without
authorisation.

15. ASEAN- Led Coordinating
Mechanism
ASEAN Humanitarian Task Force
Tripartite Core Group (TCG)
2008-2010
Government of Myanmar Representatives of UNRepresentatives of ASEAN
“Consensus, Negotiation and recommendation”

16. ASEAN’s role
in the Cyclone Nargis response:
implications, lessons and opportunities
ROLE OF TCG

17.  The issuance of 3,833 visas for humanitarian workers.
 Livelihoods rehabilitation, infrastructure reconstruction
and disaster risk reductionthrough the ASEAN Volunteer Programme
 People’s access to safe drinking water and storing
water had improved
 Agriculture, job, small business were restorated.
THE OUTCOMES OF TCG

18. Myanmar had shifted its stance
Led to mutual cooperation
ASEAN’s AHTF in line with AADMER Initially
TCG was planned to be operational at
least until December 2008, but was further
extended to 2010.

19. (Comfort,2007)
cognition
• Detection of risk
• recognition and interpretation of
risk for the immediate context and
how to deal with.
communication
communication of risk to
multiple organizations in
a wider region
coordination
organization
and mobilization of a collective
control
community response
system to reduce risk
and respond to danger

20. 20

21. Storm surge
Storm surge is an abnormal rise of water generated by
a storm, over and above the predicted astronomical
tides. Storm surge is often the greatest threat to life and property from a
cyclone. This rise in water level can cause extreme flooding in coastal areas
particularly when storm surge coincides with normal high tide, resulting in storm
tides reaching up to 20 feet or more in some cases.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/surge/

22. If Storm Surge hit Bangkok
ในปี 2008 Dr.Smith Thammasaroj
was predicted storm surge might BKK
Prone area are
- Phranakorn zone from Bangna to
Samutprakarn might affected 0.20–1.00m.
high tide
- Thonburi zone which able to separated
into 2 zone as Bangkhuntian and
Thungkru might affected 1.00 – 3.00 m.
high tide. While North zone of Thungkru
Jomthong Ratburana to Phraram2 might
affected 0.20 – 1.00 m. high tide.

23. When Storm Surge hit
certainly, floodBanner advertising must be collapse down
How to coping with Storm ?

24. Storm Surge
Manual
2009

25. 25

26. - Learn how to use CB or walkie talkie radio.
- Understand disaster mechanism then
estimate the effect.
- monitor and interpret weather forecast
and warning.
Preparedness

27. - Collect contact list of important organization
- In case of emergency, Evacuate !
Make sure that you already shut down
the electricity system in the house.
- You might know where is the safe place and risk place.
Preparedness

29. 𝑅𝑖𝑠𝑘 = 𝐻𝑎𝑧𝑎𝑟𝑑 ∗ 𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑢𝑟𝑒 ∗ 𝑉𝑢𝑙𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦
𝐶𝑎𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦
Disaster risk “the potential loss of life, injury, or destroyed or
damaged assets which could occur to a system, society or a
community in a specific period of time, determined probabilistically as
a function of hazard, exposure, and capacity”. (UNISDR Global Assessment Report 2015.)
Risk = disaster effect / coping capacity

30. Disaster Risk Assessment Formula
Risk =
hazard(h) x 𝑉𝑢𝑙𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦(v) x Exposure(e)
capacity(C)

31. Risk Balance force
Risk = Hazard&Exposure1/3 × Vulnerability1/3 x Lack of coping capacity1/3
LACK OF
COPING CAPACITY
EXPOSURE
HAZARD
VULNERABILITY
Socio-economic

32. Thailand Disaster risk assessement
ที่มา : http://www.inform-index.org/Countries/Country-Profile-Map

33. What do you
call the Position
of this glass ?
UNSAFE
Which object is the most risk? A.Table B.Glass C.Floor
Because of the glass is place in the most
vulnerable position and it’s fragile.
What can make it fall ?
A. Seismic shake B. Wind
C. Someone hit the Table D. all above
All above are HazardIt can cause the vulnerable object damage.
But sometime the vulnerably object might become escalate to
the exposure example the glass fall to computer notebook
Then Notebook had broke , file loss, job loss.

34. =
Hazard x Exposure x Vulnerability
1 Landslide 1 Cars
= 1 x 1 = 1=Specific Risk Hazard x Exposure x Vulnerability
When you describe the variable if not found, Do not take “0” , Just not define is enough.
Is the amount or number of estimated numerical losses Number of injured Property
damage That is the result of natural phenomena.
Total Risk = (Elements at Risk)*(Specific Risk)
1 Landslide1 Cars
= 3x1x1 = 3
Let’s say, the first car is 4WD. It can escape in time. Let’s say, the second car
have first class insurance.
Let’s say, the second car is
an armored car.Elements of Capacity
Armored car

35. VulnerabilityIn the context of environmental and disaster management
The characteristics determined
by physical, social, economic and
environmental factors or
processes which increase the
susceptibility of an individual, a
community, assets or systems to
the impacts of hazards.
https://www.preventionweb.net/risk/vulnerability

36. ExposureIn the context of environmental and disaster management
is defined as “the situation of
people, infrastructure, housing,
production capacities and other
tangible human assets located in
hazard-prone areas”. As stated in the
UNISDR glossary, “measures of
exposure can include the number of
people or types of assets in an area.
These can be combined with the
specific vulnerability and capacity of
the exposed elements to any
particular hazard to estimate the
quantitative risks associated with that
hazard in the area of interest”.
http://www.un-spider.org/risks-and-disasters/disaster-risk-management

37. Coping CapacityIn the context of environmental and disaster management
refers to all the strengths,
attributes and resources
available within a
community, organization
or society to manage and
reduce disaster risks and
strengthen resilience.
https://www.preventionweb.net/risk/vulnerability

38. What is the Hazard in the picture?Assess risk in this picture
What is the vulnerability in the picture?
7 student in flood
Shoe and sock
might be wet.
What is the Exposure in the picture?
Variable Detail / score Lack of capacity
Hazard Flood 1
Exposure
Vulnerability StudentA 1
StudentB 1
StudentC 1
StudentD 1
StudentE 1
StudentF 1
StudentG 1
electric shock 1
Fence fall down 1
Because of These 7 persons are capable to climb the fence
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Lack of drainage
Lack of circuit check
Lack of strength
Risk = Hazard&Exposure1/3 × Vulnerability1/3 x Lack of coping capacity1/3
Risk = 31/3 x 71/3 x 31/3
= 1.44 x 1.91 x 1.44
= 3.96

40. Survey
Survey team : Use Anemometer measure Air velocity to
find the strongest wind point in each zone. Then evaluate
the effect and disaster risk assessment
Evaluate
Data and Information team : Receive data from survey team to evaluate
the most affected zone and create the guideline to coping with disaster
Mission

41. A B C D E F
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
A1 B1 C1
A2 B2 C2
A3 B3 C3
D1 E1 F1
D2 E2 F2
D3 E3 F3
A4 B4 C4 D4
A5 B5 C5 D5
A6 B6 C6 D6
A7 B7 C7
A8 B8 C8
Distribute survey
The Grid overlay is used to make sure that
you didn’t forget any place to survey.
It’s easy to share data when many people
work together.
- Set up group for 4 group
- Choose team member 3-5 person a
group then divide responsibilities
Today you have to take role-play
You are the policy maker team and operation team
who have the authority to reduce the risk from
storm surge in Thammasart Tha-phrachan University

42. In-class Activity (30 mins)
You have to Evaluate Storm Surge risk.
The storm might hit Bangkhuntian bay with 155 km/h wind speed
There will be affected to Phranakorn district of Bangkok.
http://www.hep.caltech.edu/~piti/bkk_height/
Information for decision making The elevation from the sea level of Bangkok
Hazard is flood and wind- sheared.
You have to survey what is
exposure, vulnerability and capacity
to create the guideline for the first
24 hrs emergency preparedness.

43. Install app Zello

44. Survey Team Task
- Search Mean sea level of each building
(if capable)
- Compile Data Wind speed of each zone.
Where is the strongest wind speed area?
- Evaluate flood level (how many meters)
- Assess Risk by consider the exposure,
the vulnerability and capability
Report your finding via Zello

45. Vulnerability
Pink
Post-it
Capacity
Green
Post-it
Hazard
Shocking
Pink
Post-it
Exposure
Orange
Post-it
Data and Information team have to Evaluate the data by
Risk =
hazard(h) x 𝑉𝑢𝑙𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦(v) x Exposure(e)
capacity(C)

46. Data and Information team Task
• How many risk of each grid
• Which grid is the most risk?
• What is the guideline to reduce risk ?
Propose the guideline to
Coping with Storm Surge to the
president of Thammasart Tha-Prachan.

47. How to reduce risk?
Propose the guideline to
Coping with Storm Surge to the president
of Thammasart Tha-Prachan.
Conclude your information from survey and evaluation
30 mins

48. control
cognition
communication
coordination
Homework
reflection
5 marks

51. (Comfort,2007)
การรู้คิด
(cognition)
ต้องรู้ว่ากลไกของปรากฏการณ์ที่เกิดขึ้นคืออะไร ภัย ความ
เสี่ยง แล้วและสิ่งที่ต้องเพื่อให้เกิดความปลอดภัยคืออะไร
บางคนยังสังเกตไม่เห็นความเปราะบาง
บางคนยังแยกระหว่างภัยกับความเปราะบางไม่ได้
บางคนยังไม่ทราบถึงสิ่งที่จะเกิดขึ้น
การสื่อสาร
(communication)
การประสาน
(coordination)
การควบคุม
(control)
- ต้องติดตามข้อมูลและแปลผลได้ว่า
จะต้องจัดการตัวเองยังไง
- ต้องสื่อสารกับคนอื่นได้ว่า จะต้อง
จัดการอะไรร่วมกันอย่างไรบ้าง
- ไม่สามารถแปลผลจากข้อมูลที่
รับมาได้ว่าควรจะต้องทาอะไร
- ไม่สามารถใช้เครื่องมือสื่อสารได้
- ไม่กล้าสื่อสาร
- สื่อสารไม่เป็น
ต้องประสานงานกัน
รู้ว่าใครต้องประสานงานกับใครร่วมกันทา
ให้สิ่งที่ต้องจัดการร่วมกัน
- ขาดผู้นา ขาดคนกลางระหว่างกลุ่ม
- ขาดข้อตกลงระหว่างกลุ่มในการจัดการข้อมูล
(ปกติเค้าจะทาข้อตกลงกันล่วงหน้าก่อนเกิดเหตุ)
การลงมือควบคุมภัยไม่ให้เกิดขึ้น หรือจัดการให้
มันเกิดขึ้นในระดับที่รุนแรงน้อยที่สุด
- ไม่เกิดข้อมูลการประเมินความเสี่ยง
- ไม่เกิดข้อมูลการคาดการณ์ภัยที่จะเกิดขึ้น
เช่น ทิศทางน้า ระดับน้า ความเร็วลม ความเสียหายที่จะตามมา
- ไม่เกิดนโยบายที่มองภาพรวมทั่วทั้งพื้นที่ในการรับมือกับภัยพิบัติ
เช่น การทาแนวป้องกันน้าเข้าจากด้านนนอก ปกป้องอาคารด้วยการสูบน้าออกจากด้านใน