2. Philosophy for adaptation:
The onset and continuance of climate change
over the next century requires natural
resource managers to think differently about
management than they have in the past.
Preparing for and adapting to climate change is
as much a cultural and intellectual challenge
as it is an scientific one.
p. 4-6 CCSP 4.4
3. No action in the face of
climate change
is a decision that may carry
the greatest risk.
Western Governors’ Association 2008
4. Three tenets to underpin management
1) Climate patterns of the past will not be the climate
patterns of the future
2) Climate defines the environment and influences
future trajectories of the distributions of species
and their habitats
3) Specific management actions may help increase
resilience of some natural resources, but fundamental
changes in species and their environment may be
inevitable.
5. Climate change effects occur in addition
to contemporary resource problems
Complexity:
– Interactions already occur among stressors
• Altered Disturbance Regimes
• Habitat Fragmentation/Loss
• Invasive Species
• Pollution
Climate change will alter
our ability to manage all of the
above
6. Adapting to Climate Change:
Attending to the Resources
• Identify resources and processes at
risk from climate change
• Identify climate-related thresholds
• Define reference conditions for
protection or restoration
• Develop monitoring and assessment
programs for resources and processes
at risk from climate change
7. Adapting to Climate Change:
Attending to the Institutions
•Develop and implement management strategies for
adaptation
–Diversify portfolio of management approaches
–Accelerate capacity for learning
–Assess, plan, and manage at multiple scales
•Let the issues define appropriate scales of time
and space
•Form partnerships with other organizations
–Reduce other human-caused stress to ecosystems
–Nurture and cultivate human and natural capital
8. Adapting to Climate Change
• Come to Terms With Uncertainty
• Incorporate Climate Change Considerations
– into Routine Operations
– into Natural Resource Management
9. Coming to Terms with Uncertainty
• Social
Uncertainty
• Scientific
Uncertainty
10. Value Social Capital
• Resource management advances by
incremental learning and gradual achievement
of goals
• There are gradients between success and
failure, with learning along the way
• As climate changes, even the most well-
reasoned actions have some potential to go
awry and lead to failure
• Protect and reward the wisdom and
experience of front line managers
NPS has tried many
ways to eradicate feral
hogs, and failed often.
11. What’s a
manager
to do?!
“Never, ever, think outside the box.”
13. Where will the largest (snowmelt)
temperature effects occur?
How many
days/year
historically
were just
below
freezing?
Less vulnerable More vulnerable
“Duration of Snowpack”
Computed from UW’s
VIC model daily INPUTS
(Bales et al, in press)
14. Expected changes in
FROZEN-SEASON LENGTH
30-60 days/year less in 2050 for ROMO
2050
Derived from monthly
IPCC GCM-grid pdfs,
and UW’s VIC model
daily inputs, 1950-1999
15. Large wildfires increased suddenly and
dramatically in mid-1980s in West
• More large
wildfires
• Longer wildfire
durations
• Longer wildfire
seasons
• Strongly
associated with
increased spring
and summer
temperatures and
earlier spring
snowmelt
Westerling et al. 2006
18. Approaches to Management
Uncertainty
Given Uncertainty
HIGH
Adaptive Scenario
Management Planning
Optimal Hedging
LOW Control
CONTROLLABLE UNCONTROLLABLE
Controllability
19. Optimal Control and Hedging
• Work best when uncertainty is low
– Optimal Control examples: fire
management, wildlife management
Elk management in ROMO Large woody debris replacement
may involve culling may improve fish habitat
20. Adaptive Management
• Treats management activities
as hypotheses
– Accepts there is uncertainty
– Emphasizes learning through
experiments and management
• Most successful when there is sufficient ecological
resilience to accommodate mistakes
• AND where there is institutional willingness to
experiment for the purpose of learning
– Requires trust, cooperation, other forms of social capital
21. Scenario-Based Planning
• Brainstorming alternative, but
plausible, futures
– Incorporates ideas of complexity
– Assigns probabilities of occurrence
– Forces consideration of low
probability but high risk scenarios
• Stories informed by data and experts
• Benefits from outside views and perceptions
• Can be quantitative or qualitative
23. High-Level Climate Change Scenario Framework
Broad Understanding
Heightened Urgency
Riots and Revolution Big Problems, Big Solutions
At a time of growing social concerns and fear Coordinated action around the world as climate
about the impacts of climate change, change (and its effects on weather, resources
Degree of
governments and political leaders are unable to and people) becomes seen as an increasingly
articulate a coherent set of policies and urgent and widespread challenge. Political
approaches. The result? Growing public unease, leaders initiate bold decisions and policies to
and movements to overturn existing systems and mitigate the worst, and adapt to the inevitabilities
structures. of climate change effects
Lack of senior commitment Senior commitment
Varied approaches and International alignment
alignment Nature of Leadership
Long-term perspectives
Societal Concern
Short-term concerns
Wheel-Spinning
Is Anyone Out There?
Despite growing scientific evidence that has
To the frustration of many, climate change convinced leaders across the world, climate
becomes a variable concern that is often ignored change remains a remote concern for the
by political and business leaders. Scientific majority of everyday people. Consumers and
consensus breaks down, other societal businesses rail against carbon caps and prices,
challenges loom large, meaning that climate claiming them to be “just another tax” imposed by
change is seldom on the front pages, or in the the elite.
forefront of political and business leaders’ minds
Widespread indifference
Competing concerns
24. Wind Cave Precipitation seasonality shifts so that winter to
summer ratio increases. Summer events are
National Park more intense and less frequent
Novel Ecosystem
Shrubland
Climate changes quickly to something like SW U.S.
Shrubs and/or subshrubs replace grasses in
and species migration cannot keep up. SW U.S.
grassland because soil water is deeper; becomes
species increase; tallgrass, northern species
more susceptible to annual grass (and other?)
decrease. Pine decreases substantially because of
invaders. Fate of pines and other trees uncertain.
low regeneration, especially if crown fire occurs
Soil erosion increases. Water table and streamflow
(which is more likely). Water table drops; streams go
depend on winter precip. Faunal composition
from perennial to intermittent or gone. Soil erosion
changes (e.g., browsers up, grazers down).
increases. Many animals die off.
Total precip and inter-
annual variability similar to Today’s “moderate”
historic records. Drought droughts become the norm
events/impacts intensified and today’s “extreme”
by increasing temperatures. droughts become more
common.
Base Case Shortgrass Prairie
Increased ET decreases plant Climate like NE Colorado. Short, warm-
productivity. Ecosystem change season grasses increase, taller and cool-
occurs, but overall tendency is for season grasses decrease. Forest more
change to occur more slowly than in restricted by moisture than currently.
other scenarios. Ecosystems may Megafauna capacity decreases; forage
have more time to adapt, but production lower. Water table drops; spring
possibility of rapid change driven by and stream flow decreases or ceases.
extreme events.
Precipitation seasonality,
intensity, and frequency
change little from historical
patterns.
25. Approaches to Management
Uncertainty
Given Uncertainty
HIGH
Adaptive Scenario
Management Planning
Optimal Hedging
LOW Control
CONTROLLABLE UNCONTROLLABLE
Controllability
27. Philosophy for adaptation:
The onset and continuance of climate change
over the next century requires natural
resource managers to think differently about
management than they have in the past.
Preparing for and adapting to climate change is
as much a cultural and intellectual challenge
as it is an ecological one.
p. 4-6 CCSP 4.4
28. Adapting to Climate Change:
Attending to the Resources
Attending to the Institutions
• Let scientific knowledge guide
management
• Reduce other human-caused stress to
ecosystems
• Broaden set of management approaches
• Let issues, not political boundaries,
define the management scales
29. Adapting to Climate Change:
Attending to the Institutions
•Develop and implement management strategies for
adaptation
–Diversify portfolio of management approaches
–Accelerate capacity for learning
–Assess, plan, and manage at multiple scales
•Let the issues define appropriate scales of time
and space
•Form partnerships with other organizations
–Reduce other human-caused stress to ecosystems
–Nurture and cultivate human and natural capital
30. Preliminary review of adaptation options
for climate-sensitive ecosystems and
resources
A Report by the U.S. Climate Change
Science Program and the Subcommittee
on Global Change Research
http://www.climatescience.gov/
