European Commission, Brussels, May 4, 2010

1. Global Food Security: New Trends and Emerging Agenda Shenggen FanDirector General International Food Policy Research Institute European Commission, Brussels, May 4, 2010

3. Emerging trends present further challenges for the future

4. MDG1 is still achievable and there have been successes

7. Prevalence of underweight in children

8. Under-five mortality rateSource: von Grebmer et al. 2009.

9. Domestic prices remain high in some countries Rice prices, $US/ton Source: FAO 2010.

10. Non-food factors continue to influence food prices Energy: Oil prices have reached a 19-month high; Biofuel production is still growing, even though at a slower pace Trade: Some export restrictions have been extended to 2010 Finance: Credit availability not yet restored to its pre-crisis level

11. Emerging trends Population growth and demographic changes Land and water constraints Climate change

12. Rapidly growing population and demographic change World population reaches 9 billion by 2050 All growth to come from urban areas Most growth to come from developing countries Source: FAO 2009. Larger and more urban population will demand more and better food

13. Natural resource constraints are high Projected water scarcity in 2025 Source: IWMI 2000.

14. Climate change pressure on food production systems Climate change impact on production: Rainfed maize, 2050 NCAR A2a Global production = -16% Source: M. Rosegrant (IFPRI) 2009.

15. Climate change impact: Child malnutrition Source: Nelson et al. (IFPRI) 2009..

16. Successes show that rapid food secuirty improvement is possible Asia: Green Revolution (1965-85) China: land reform (1978-84); higher rice yields (1977-now) India: seed marketing (mid-1960s-now), dairy sector development (1970-96) Kenya: unlocking fertilizer and maize markets (1990-2007) Nigeria, Ghana, and Uganda: pest- and disease-resistant cassava (1971-89) Vietnam: Exiting from collective agriculture (1988-93) Source: Spielman and Pandya-Lorch 2009.

17. New agenda for food security needed Invest in agriculture and improve smallholder productivity Keep trade open Promote productive social protection Invest in climate change adaptation and mitigation Improve institutions and capacities

18. 4.0 Actual ag spending in 2004, billion USD 3.5 Annual agspending required, billion USD (2008-15) 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 1. Invest in agriculture and improve smallholder productivity Source: Fan and Johnson (2009). Increase agric. spending, improve access to inputs and services, secure land rights, invest in rural infrastructure

19. Ag + non-ag growth = highest poverty reduction Poverty simulations, Rwanda Source: Diao et al. 2008.

20. 2. Keep trade open Eliminate harmful trade restrictions and refrain from imposing new ones to increase efficiency to stabilize prices Complete the Doha Round if tariffs increase to their current WTO limits (bound level): 11.5% loss of developing country exports US$353 billion loss in world welfare Potential costs of failed Doha Round could be high Source: Bouet and Laborde 2009.

21. 3. Promote productive social protection Scale up safety nets to: Secure and smooth food consumption Enable saving and investment Build and diversify assets Types of interventions e.g.: Conditional cash/food transfers Maternal and child health/nutrition programs Public works Insurance for the poor Programs depend on needs, capacities, and resources Source: Adato and Hoddinott 2008.

22. Innovative insurance for poor farmers and consumers Agriculture: index-based weather insurance for crops and livestock Health: community-based health insurance Effective delivery channels Agricultural cooperatives to deliver weather insurance products Microfinance institutions to provide microinsurance Source: Vargas Hill and Torero 2009.

23. 4. Invest in climate change adaptation and mitigation Annual expenditure to counteract climate change effects on child nutrition by 2050 (million 2000 US$) Source: Nelson et al. (IFPRI) 2009.

24. 5. Improve institutions and capacities Build up existing institutions and improve evidence-based policy making Increase gradual implementation after careful experimentation as in Asian reform process (esp. China) Increase investment in information gathering, monitoring, and evaluation Strengthen human and administrative capacities through increased investment in education and training

25. Building capacity for policy analysis Regional Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System (ReSAKSS) Africa-wide network Supports implementation of CAADP and other regional initiatives Country SAKSS Provides technical support for CAADP roundtable process Monitor and evaluate performance of agricultural sector against CAADP goals

26. Rapid hunger reduction is achievable with effective country-led and country-owned actions