Curious Trends: The Food Industry 2015

1. A REPORT SAMPLE CURIOUS TRENDS: THE FOOD INDUSTRY 2015 The Year of Transition The past year in the food industry has been a year of transitions. The consumer is moving from paper to digital lists. Price has risen as a consideration both at the grocery and when selecting a restaurant and Millennials are impacting food consumption behavior.

2. Methodology 900 M/F 18-99 over 4 quarters (a full year of data) U.S. only; Quotaed to Census for age, gender and ethnicity At least 50% responsibility for grocery shopping, meal planning, choosing restaurants when dining out OR in, preparing meals in the home OR planning parties or events in the home Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q1 2015 Q4 2015 Q4 2014

3. Techno Assistance The digital revolution continues to impact how the consumer communicates food-related comments and what they may eat. However, they are also embracing technologies that affect how they shop the category. THREE TRENDS THAT WILL CHANGE THE FOOD INDUSTRY: Seasonal Impact Consumers have moved beyond the expected seasonalities, such as shopping for Thanksgiving or Christmas, to the seasons having an impact on what channels they shop and even where in the store they begin their journey. 2 Cautious Grazing Grazing, that is eating more small meals, continues to be a trend; however, it must be understood that while portion sizes have increased, there is rising concern from consumers over the quality of what goes into their bodies. 1 3

4. 4 Cautious Grazing 1

5. Small Portion Breakfasts Are Getting Bigger! 30% 10%32% 6% Large Portion

6. The 4th Meal Continues 18% 25% 33% 40% Q4 '14 OND Q1 '15 JFM Q2 '15 AMJ Q3 '15 JAS Q4 '15 OND 31% 32% 31% 24% 29% 19% 22% 21% 19% 21% Eat either a small portion or normal portion 4th meal Millennials: same question When thinking about your meal habits, which of the following best describes you? I eat a 4th Meal which is (select portion size).

7. In 2015 these are the times consumers reported they snack: The Day in Snacking 56% 69% 61% 40%Morning Afternoon Evening Midnight When thinking about your meal habits, which of the following best describes you? I eat a snack in the (morning, afternoon, evening, midnight).

8. Variety

9. Resistance to Monotony 10% 20% 30% 40% Q4 '14 OND Q1 '15 JFM Q2 '15 AMJ Q3 '15 JAS Q4 '15 OND 9% 8% 7% 6% 7% 27% 26% 28% 31% 34% Disagree Strongly disagree Mainstream consumers are adopting a resistant attitude toward eating the same food meal after meal. While those who strongly disagree with this belief statement have decreased modestly, those who disagree have risen significantly. How much do you agree or disagree with the following statement? I usually eat the same types of foods at every meal. The move from fringe to mainstream

10. Health

11. When it comes to the time spent making selections, consumers spend more time making decisions in the meat & seafood sections than in any other sections of the grocery. The produce section comes in second. The Shopping Journey 20% Produce 30% Meat & Seafood Thinking about your typical route through the store, in which of the following sections do you spend the most time making your selections?

12. Health Becoming Top of Mind 15% 30% 45% 60% Q4 '14 OND Q1 '15 JFM Q2 '15 AMJ Q3 '15 JAS Q4 '15 OND 37% 48% 46% 48% 51% 36% 33% 27% 32% 27% Strongly agree Agree While about 60% of people consider themselves healthy, concern over food consumed is moving mainstream with a significant rise in agreement with the statement, “I care what I put   in my body.” The current top 2 box score is 78%. How much do you agree or disagree with the following statement? “I care what I put in my body.”

13. 47% 43% GMO Concern on the Rise How much do you agree or disagree with the following statement? “I care what I put in my body.” TOP 2 BOX

14. Price

15. 32% 27% Rising Concern About Increased Food Prices Thinking about food in general, please rate your level of concern with the following. “Increases in food prices” VERY CONCERNED

16. 48% 55% 63% 70% Q4 '14 OND Q1 '15 JFM Q2 '15 AMJ Q3 '15 JAS Q4 '15 OND 50% 51% 60% 62% 59% T2B While they are are specifically concerned about food prices, respondents reported they have a rising concern about the economy and/or ability to provide for their families in general. Thinking about food in general, please rate your level of concern with the following. Economy/Ability to provide for your family Financial Concerns Deepen

17. 24.5% 29% 33.5% 38% Q4 '14 OND Q1 '15 JFM Q2 '15 AMJ Q3 '15 JAS Q4 '15 OND 32% 30% 38% 38% 36% Stongly Agree Shopping Motivations 17 There was an increase in those who “strongly agree” with a money savings goal statement indicating the year ended with even greater concern about food cost than when it began. How much do you agree or disagree with the following statement? “My number one goal when shopping is to save as much money as possible.”

18. Restaurant Motivations: Price vs. Menu 42.5% 55% 67.5% 80% Q4 '14 OND Q1 '15 JFM Q2 '15 AMJ Q3 '15 JAS Q4 '15 OND 53% 53% 60% 66% 62% 71% 65% 59% 64% 56% Menu Price Midyear respondents began to report that price had become the most important factor when selecting a restaurant. Previously, menu selections had been the most important. Thinking about the times you dine out as a family, which of the following have the strongest influence when determining the choice of restaurant?

19. Seasonal Impact 2

20. American Food Seasons Winter Spring Summer Fall More ethnically adventurous How they shop How they prepareHow they eat Fewer overall shopping trips More home-prepared meals Shop more at specialty stores Shop more at local markets More time planning meals Begin shopping in bakery Sourcing less important Sourcing less important More shopping for comfort food Meal replacement more common More carb watching There are some surprising trends throughout the year. While we expect holidays to impact shopping behavior, seasonality also affects many other behaviors such as carb watching, beginning a shopping trip in the bakery section, sourcing sensitivity and others.

21. People are more likely to be ethnically adventurous in winter, while they more likely to seek familiar or comfort foods in April–June. Additionally, respondents show higher enjoyment seeking out new recipes in July–September. The Flavor Seasons 56.25% 62.5% 68.75% 75% Q4 '14 Q1 '15 Q2 '15 Q3 '15 Q4 '15 61% 60% 64% 63% 59% 67% 72% 71% 73% 69% 67% 66% 61% 65% 66% T2B: I love ethnically diverse foods and enjoy trying things from other countries. I enjoy seeking out new recipes. I am a creature of habit and stick to the foods I like. Ethnic Season Ethnic Season Adventure Season Familiar Season Taken from three different belief statement questions about food preferences.

22. While the grocery store is still king, U.S. consumers are visiting specialty stores more in the winter (7% in Q4 2014 and 6% in Q4 2015 compared to 4% and 5% in other seasons). And, no surprise, consumers visit local markets more in the spring (Q2). Specialty Stores Seasonality 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 Q4 '14 OND Q1 '15 JFM Q2 '15 AMJ Q3 '15 JAS Q4 '15 OND 7% 5% 4% 4% 6% Specialty Store Visits Now please think about the food you purchase for your household. Please select the one type of store where you shop most often for food.

23. People are more likely to venture out to a variety of types of stores in Jan.–Mar. meaning, they are more likely to shop at several stores to find the things they need. The Variety Shopping Season 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 Q4 '14 OND Q1 '15 JFM Q2 '15 AMJ Q3 '15 JAS Q4 '15 OND 15% 21% 15% 16% 13% No, I like to go to different stores depending on my needs/desires. Thinking about the store that you shop most often, would you say you go to the exact same store every time you shop?

24. The consumers response to the belief statement, “I try to buy foods that are grown or produced locally…” at 61% T2B agreement, has an impact on Club and specialty stores lose consumers to local markets and home growers during spring quarter (Q2). Local’s Impact 54% 58% 61% 65% Q4 '14 OND Q1 '15 JFM Q2 '15 AMJ Q3 '15 JAS Q4 '15 OND 59% 58% 61% 59% 57% T2B - I try to buy foods that are grown or produced locally How much do you agree or disagree with the following statements? I try to buy foods that are grown or produced locally (in the region where I live).

25. Time spent planning meals is also affected by the changing seasons. Consumers reported that more time goes into planning meals during spring and summer than in (4.4 and 4.5 mean hours respectively on average spent each week). Meal Planning Time 2 4 5 6 Q4 '14 OND Q1 '15 JFM Q2 '15 AMJ Q3 '15 JAS Q4 '15 OND 3.8 3.7 4.4 4.5 3.9 Hours spent planning meals weekly On average, how many hours do you spend planning your meals each week?

26. thank you. Contact: Jeff Dattilo Email: jdattilo@curiosity360.com

Curious Trends: The Food Industry 2015

Curious Trends: The Food Industry 2015

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