#NoEstimates does not mean "no estimates"

•

4 likes•2,721 views

Seb Rose

An explanation of why people still want estimates, and how we can satisfy their needs without actually estimating

Technology

@sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk
#NoEstimates
does not mean
“no estimates!”
Seb Rose
Claysnow Limited
Thursday, 26 March 15

@sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk
Your company
NEEDS
that estimate
Thursday, 26 March 15

@sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk
Thursday, 26 March 15

@sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk
I’ll be back
tomorrow to ﬁnish off
You’ll be in by
Christmas
That will be
ﬁxed before we
leave
All our previous
customers are
completely satisﬁed
We don’t make
mistakes like other
builders
You won’t
notice we’re there
Thursday, 26 March 15

@sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk
The project status is
still green
We’re 90% done
We will deliver
with zero defects
On time, on budget
every project
It’s working in the
test environment
Integration
takes hardly any
time
Thursday, 26 March 15

@sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk
BANG
HEAD
HERE
Observed Cycle
http://ajcp.ascpjournals.org/content/134/3/361/F1.large.jpg
Thursday, 26 March 15

@sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk
The idea behind the #NoEstimates
approach to software development
isn't to eliminate estimates
[it is] to explore other ways to solve
problems
without speciﬁcally asking,
'How long will it take?'
http://www.cio.com/article/2381167/agile-development/-no-estimates-in-action-5-ways-to-rethink-software-projects.html
Thursday, 26 March 15

@sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk
So, why do we estimate?
•Prediction
•Prioritisation
•Analysis and understanding of
requirements
Thursday, 26 March 15

@sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk
Prediction
Thursday, 26 March 15

@sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk
Prediction is very difﬁcult,
especially about the future.
Niels Bohr, physicist
Thursday, 26 March 15

@sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk
The Cone of Uncertainty in Project Management
Thursday, 26 March 15

@sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk
Overconﬁdence
Thursday, 26 March 15

@sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk
"We aren't really bad at
estimating.
What we are really bad at is
enumerating all the
assumptions that lie behind
our estimates."
-Paul Rook
Thursday, 26 March 15

@sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk
Is it small,
or just far away?
Thursday, 26 March 15

@sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk
https://estimation.lunarlogic.io/assets/cards-range-8fc41b2e3fd282125f4602a712020204.png
Thursday, 26 March 15

@sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk
Prioritisation
Thursday, 26 March 15

@sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk
MMFs
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Naked Planning
In progress Urgent
Average delivery
time from here:
?? days
Thursday, 26 March 15

@sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk
Cost of delay
http://blackswanfarming.com/cost-of-delay/
... is a way of communicating the
impact of time on value.
Thursday, 26 March 15

@sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk
Cost of delay
http://blackswanfarming.com/cost-of-delay/
1.Better Decision-making – by making the
economic trade-offs visible
2.Better Prioritisation – by using CD3 (Cost of
Delay Divided by Duration) we deliver more
total value
3.By changing the focus – from efﬁciency and
cost (which encourages the wrong
behaviours), to speed and value
Thursday, 26 March 15

@sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk
Analysis
Thursday, 26 March 15

@sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk
“... during an inception, when we are
most ignorant
about most aspects of the project,
the best use
we can possibly make of the time available
is to attempt to
identify and reduce
our ignorance”
http://dannorth.net/2010/08/30/introducing-deliberate-discovery/
Deliberate discovery
Thursday, 26 March 15

@sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk
Challenge the use of estimates
- what are they we trying to achieve?
What’s the value of the project
- estimates of cost may not be necessary
Is it small or just far away?
- ignorance is our major constraint
Take aways
Thursday, 26 March 15

@sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk
Ask yourself whether the value you get from
estimates justiﬁes the cost of producing them.
#NoEstimates is the banner under which
people who answer “NO!”
are looking for better, cheaper ways
of getting
the beneﬁts that we want,
without
the waste that we don’t.
Finally....
Thursday, 26 March 15

Seb
Rose
Twi$er:

@sebrose
Blog:

www.claysnow.co.uk
E-‐mail:

seb@claysnow.co.uk
Discount code at pragprog.com
CukeUp!_London_25%
Valid for 1 month
Thursday, 26 March 15

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#NoEstimates does not mean "no estimates"

1. @sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk #NoEstimates does not mean “no estimates!” Seb Rose Claysnow Limited Thursday, 26 March 15

2. @sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk Your company NEEDS that estimate Thursday, 26 March 15

3. @sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk Thursday, 26 March 15

4. @sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk Thursday, 26 March 15

5. @sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk Thursday, 26 March 15

6. @sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk I’ll be back tomorrow to finish off You’ll be in by Christmas That will be fixed before we leave All our previous customers are completely satisfied We don’t make mistakes like other builders You won’t notice we’re there Thursday, 26 March 15

7. @sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk The project status is still green We’re 90% done We will deliver with zero defects On time, on budget every project It’s working in the test environment Integration takes hardly any time Thursday, 26 March 15

8. @sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk BANG HEAD HERE Observed Cycle http://ajcp.ascpjournals.org/content/134/3/361/F1.large.jpg Thursday, 26 March 15

9. @sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk The idea behind the #NoEstimates approach to software development isn't to eliminate estimates [it is] to explore other ways to solve problems without speciﬁcally asking, 'How long will it take?' http://www.cio.com/article/2381167/agile-development/-no-estimates-in-action-5-ways-to-rethink-software-projects.html Thursday, 26 March 15

10. @sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk So, why do we estimate? •Prediction •Prioritisation •Analysis and understanding of requirements Thursday, 26 March 15

11. @sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk Prediction Thursday, 26 March 15

12. @sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk Prediction is very difﬁcult, especially about the future. Niels Bohr, physicist Thursday, 26 March 15

13. @sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk Thursday, 26 March 15

14. @sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk The Cone of Uncertainty in Project Management Thursday, 26 March 15

15. @sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk Thursday, 26 March 15

16. @sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk Thursday, 26 March 15

17. @sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk Overconﬁdence Thursday, 26 March 15

18. @sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk "We aren't really bad at estimating. What we are really bad at is enumerating all the assumptions that lie behind our estimates." -Paul Rook Thursday, 26 March 15

19. @sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk Thursday, 26 March 15

20. @sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk Is it small, or just far away? Thursday, 26 March 15

21. @sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk Thursday, 26 March 15

22. @sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk https://estimation.lunarlogic.io/assets/cards-range-8fc41b2e3fd282125f4602a712020204.png Thursday, 26 March 15

23. @sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk Prioritisation Thursday, 26 March 15

24. @sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk Thursday, 26 March 15

25. @sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk MMFs 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Naked Planning In progress Urgent Average delivery time from here: ?? days Thursday, 26 March 15

26. @sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk Cost of delay http://blackswanfarming.com/cost-of-delay/ ... is a way of communicating the impact of time on value. Thursday, 26 March 15

27. @sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk Cost of delay http://blackswanfarming.com/cost-of-delay/ 1.Better Decision-making – by making the economic trade-offs visible 2.Better Prioritisation – by using CD3 (Cost of Delay Divided by Duration) we deliver more total value 3.By changing the focus – from efﬁciency and cost (which encourages the wrong behaviours), to speed and value Thursday, 26 March 15

28. @sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk Analysis Thursday, 26 March 15

29. @sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk “... during an inception, when we are most ignorant about most aspects of the project, the best use we can possibly make of the time available is to attempt to identify and reduce our ignorance” http://dannorth.net/2010/08/30/introducing-deliberate-discovery/ Deliberate discovery Thursday, 26 March 15

30. @sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk Challenge the use of estimates - what are they we trying to achieve? What’s the value of the project - estimates of cost may not be necessary Is it small or just far away? - ignorance is our major constraint Take aways Thursday, 26 March 15

31. @sebrose http://claysnow.co.uk Ask yourself whether the value you get from estimates justiﬁes the cost of producing them. #NoEstimates is the banner under which people who answer “NO!” are looking for better, cheaper ways of getting the beneﬁts that we want, without the waste that we don’t. Finally.... Thursday, 26 March 15

32. Seb Rose Twi$er: @sebrose Blog: www.claysnow.co.uk E-‐mail: seb@claysnow.co.uk Discount code at pragprog.com CukeUp!_London_25% Valid for 1 month Thursday, 26 March 15

#NoEstimates does not mean "no estimates"

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