Weather prediction technology is a global, big data enterprise. This talk will describe the huge quantities of information that make modern weather prediction possible, from satellite and radar data to surface observations and the output from numerical weather prediction models. The role of smartphones and other mobile devices for distributing forecasts and weather information will be discussed and the future of weather prediction will be outlined.

1. Big Data and Weather
Forecasting

2. Weather prediction has been a big data
problem for a long time
Petabytes per day

3. Big data and weather: the observations

4. Weather Satellites: Meteorological Data
Everywhere

6. NOAA Polar
Orbiter Weather
Satellite
NOAA Polar Orbiter

8. Cosmic GPS satellites provide more
soundings

11. Cloud Track Winds

12. Aircraft

13. Weather Radar

14. Surface Observations

15. Northwest Surface Observations

17. Some of the smartphones/pads with
pressure sensors

18. 114K Pressures in One Hour Over US
From Three Apps

19. Big Problem

20. Quality Control of Big Weather Data

21. The other meteorological big data:
forecast models

22. The First Numerical Weather
Prediction

23. Numerical Weather Prediction

24. Observation Collection Needed to Create
the Initialization

26. These equations together are a time
machine!

27. Numerical Weather Prediction
National Weather
Service Weather
Prediction Computer

30. 4-km UW
MM5 System

31. 1.33 km resolution available on the UW
web site

32. Before the models are run there is
another step: data assimilation

35. Surface analysis of sea level pressure, surface wind,
low-atmosphere temperature

36. But there is another issue for big data
users…meteorological and otherwise.

37. Uncertainty

38. Big Data and Uncertainty

40. The Technology of Uncertainty

41. Ensemble Prediction

43. Ensemble Prediction
• Can use ensembles to give the
probabilities that some weather feature will
occur. Not just precipitation.
• Ensemble mean is more accurate than any
individual member.
•When forecasts are similar, forecast skill
of the ensemble mean is generally higher.

44. Statistical post-processing

45. The UW has done this: PROBCAST

46. Decision Making and Uncertainty

47. Take Home Message

48. Big Data and Visualization

49. The role of visualization

51. And there are some recent non-Xbox
examples

53. Imagine if we developed the
infrastructure for weather animations,
SHOWING people what the weather
would LOOK like and SOUND like.

54. Connect Weather Simulation and
Videogame Technologies

56. Forecast
Animation
For the
Next Hr

57. Take Home Message

58. Big weather data can also help in the
short-term forecasting

59. During the past decade the volume
of information on what is occurring
now in local areas has increased
dramatically

60. And we have the perfect delivery
tool: Smartphones

65. Take Home Message

66. The End