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24.09.2012




                                                                                                                                                                             Option Implied Volatility Skew Parameters by Terms:
                                                                                               At The Money Implied Volatilities by Terms
                                                                                                                                                                                              IVt = atx + btx2 + ct
                                                                                Convenienc                                                                        Skew     Skew     Skew     Skew     Skew     Skew     Skew     Skew    Skew    Skew    Skew    Skew    Skew    Skew
                                                                                            ATM Vol - ATM Vol - ATM Vol - ATM Vol - ATM Vol - ATM Vol - ATM Vol -
                     Ticker                    Name                  ATM Ref     e Yield (%                                                                        (a) -    (a) -    (a) -    (a) -    (a) -    (a) -    (a) -   (b) -   (b) -   (b) -   (b) -   (b) -   (b) -   (b) -
                                                                                              30D       60D       90D       6M        12M       18M       24M
                                                                                    p.a.)                                                                          30D      60D      90D       6M     12M      18M      24M       30D     60D     90D     6M     12M     18M     24M

                RSA Comdty    CANOLA FUTR (WCE) Nov12                 608.90                  16.05     16.13     15.71     16.24     16.93                       0.116 -0.041 0.157         0.076    0.021                      -0.004 -0.002 -0.001 -0.001 0.000
                CCA Comdty    COCOA FUTURE      Dec12                2469.00                  29.34     30.19     30.01     28.93     28.91                       0.086    0.035    0.037    0.036    0.072                      -0.001 0.000    0.000   0.000   0.000
                KCA Comdty    COFFEE 'C' FUTURE Dec12                 169.30                  31.67     31.18     30.11     29.38     28.91     28.42             0.046    0.093    0.096    0.064    0.010 -0.028               -0.003 -0.001 -0.001 0.000      0.000   0.000
                C A Comdty    CORN FUTURE      Dec12                  744.50                  26.02     26.02     26.06     26.06     24.67     22.75     22.24   0.160    0.160    0.162    0.136    0.035    0.011    0.021    0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000
                CTA Comdty    COTTON NO.2 FUTR Dec12                  72.92                   28.21     27.92     27.57     26.09     23.27     21.86     20.34   -0.045 -0.033 -0.025 -0.009 -0.026 -0.048 -0.050 -0.002 -0.001 -0.001 0.000                    0.000   0.000   0.000
  Agriculture




                JOA Comdty    FCOJ-A FUTURE    Nov12                  120.55                  48.07     39.70     42.17     40.27     36.54     32.19     29.14   0.090    0.034 -0.068 -0.011 0.001           0.001    0.000    0.001   0.000   0.001   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000
                LBA Comdty    LUMBER FUTURE     Nov12                 278.00                  27.97     23.87     19.89     16.08                                 -0.047 -0.047 -0.011 -0.005                                    -0.005 -0.003 -0.003 -0.002
                O A Comdty    OAT FUTURE      Dec12                   370.25                  26.44     26.44     25.54     23.40     23.40                       0.159    0.159    0.165    0.180    0.180                      -0.001 -0.001 0.000     0.000   0.000
                RRA Comdty    ROUGH RICE (CBOT) Nov12                 15.24                   17.55     16.89     16.11     17.69                                 0.209    0.183    0.150    0.000                               -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 0.000
                S A Comdty    SOYBEAN FUTURE     Nov12               1604.00                  24.38     23.96     23.45     23.26     22.63                       0.125    0.153    0.188    0.176    0.078                      -0.001 -0.001 -0.002 -0.001 0.000
                SMA Comdty    SOYBEAN MEAL FUTR Dec12                 483.20                  26.02     26.03     24.29     23.91     22.88                       0.188    0.187    0.150    0.133    0.073                      -0.002 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001
                BOA Comdty    SOYBEAN OIL FUTR Dec12                  53.75                   20.36     19.96     19.48     20.34     19.02                       0.194    0.171    0.144    0.135    0.000                      -0.002 -0.002 -0.001 0.000      0.000
                SBA Comdty    SUGAR #11 (WORLD) Mar13                 20.28                   25.21     25.52     25.37     24.95     22.11     21.28     20.74   0.071    0.051    0.045    0.007    0.006    0.000 -0.013 -0.003 -0.003 0.000 -0.001 0.000             0.000   0.000
                W A Comdty    WHEAT FUTURE(CBT) Dec12                 891.00                  30.63     29.57     29.25     28.32     26.77                       0.188    0.194    0.184    0.135    0.042                      -0.001 0.000    0.000   0.000   0.000
                KWA Comdty    WHEAT FUTURE(KCB) Dec12                 918.00                  23.89     29.22     29.50     28.00                                 -0.931 0.032      0.115    0.012                               -0.007 -0.001 0.000     0.000
                FCA Comdty    CATTLE FEEDER FUT Nov12                 148.70                  8.68      10.32     10.70                                           -0.158 -0.180 -0.173                                           -0.007 -0.005 -0.003
stock
 Live




                LHA Comdty    LEAN HOGS FUTURE Dec12                  74.98                   18.41     19.15     19.85     19.11     16.38                       0.010 -0.032 -0.070 -0.076 -0.107                              -0.003 -0.002 -0.001 0.000      0.000
                LCA Comdty    LIVE CATTLE FUTR Dec12                  128.48                  11.14     11.58     11.55     11.13     11.04                       -0.152 -0.215 -0.214 -0.178 -0.122                             -0.005 -0.002 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001
                CLA Comdty    WTI CRUDE FUTURE Nov12                  91.83                   29.71     31.59     32.07     32.00     29.47     27.01     24.99   -0.183 -0.150 -0.148 -0.134 -0.003 -0.081 -0.074 -0.001 0.000                  0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000
                COA Comdty    BRENT CRUDE FUTR Nov12                  109.93                  28.88     29.92     30.75     30.99     29.40     27.28     25.33   -0.130 -0.129 -0.171 -0.149 -0.184 -0.099 -0.078 0.000                 0.000   0.000   0.000 -0.001 0.000      0.000
  Energy




                XBA Comdty    G A S O L I N E R B O B F U T O c t 1 2 292.66                  29.90     31.73     30.87     28.29     28.02     28.02     28.02   -0.028 -0.015 -0.003 -0.005 0.000            0.000    0.000    0.000   0.001   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000
                HOA Comdty    HEATING OIL FUTR Oct12                  310.01                  24.91     26.03     26.40     26.28     26.39     26.39     26.39   -0.027 -0.022 -0.026 -0.010 0.000            0.000    0.000    0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000
                QSA Comdty    GAS OIL FUT (ICE) Nov12                 964.50                  24.63     24.54     25.71     26.43     25.35     22.89     21.14   -0.247 -0.189 -0.141 -0.072 -0.023 -0.050 -0.028 -0.001 -0.001 0.000                   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000
                NGA Comdty    NATURAL GAS FUTR Oct12                   2.83                   43.99     39.63     36.70     33.75     32.59     26.68     25.24   -0.178 -0.063 -0.025 -0.029 -0.028 0.000              0.001 -0.002 0.000       0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000
Precious




                GCA Comdty    GOLD 100 OZ FUTR Dec12                 1764.20                  15.76     16.48     17.15     18.86     21.31     22.31     22.82   0.034    0.033    0.013    0.005    0.003    0.006    0.007    0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000
 Metals




                SIA Comdty    SILVER FUTURE    Dec12                  34.02                   28.56     29.39     30.00     30.98     32.69     33.16     33.51   -0.113 -0.027 -0.010 -0.054 -0.023 -0.004 -0.003 -0.004 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 0.000                     0.000   0.000
                PLA Comdty    PLATINUM FUTURE Oct12                  1615.10                  23.67     23.57     23.76     24.07                                 0.020    0.006    0.039    0.024                               -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 0.000
                PAA Comdty    PALLADIUM FUTURE Dec12                  639.50                  23.03     23.65     24.06     24.91                                 0.102    0.010    0.005    0.000                               -0.002 -0.002 -0.001 0.000
                LAA Comdty    LME PRI ALUM FUTR Oct12                2099.50                  19.35     19.35     19.35     19.35     19.35     19.35     19.35   0.000    0.000    0.000    0.000    0.000    0.000    0.000    0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000
Industrial
  Metals




                LPA Comdty    LME COPPER FUTURE Oct12                8282.00                  23.19     24.25     24.94     24.94     24.94     24.94     24.94   0.002    0.000    0.000    0.000    0.000    0.000    0.000    0.001   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000
                LLA Comdty    LME LEAD FUTURE Oct12                  2285.75                  27.40     27.40     27.40     27.40     27.40                       -0.011 -0.011 -0.011 -0.011 -0.011                             0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000
                LNA Comdty    LME NICKEL FUTURE Oct12                18149.00                 26.19     27.58     28.16     29.91     31.40     31.40     31.40   0.000    0.000    0.000    0.000    0.000    0.000    0.000    0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000
                LXA Comdty    LME ZINC FUTURE Oct12                  2096.75                  27.33     27.33     27.33     27.09     28.01     28.01     28.01   0.000    0.000    0.000    0.000    0.000    0.000    0.000    0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000




                                                                                         Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
24.09.2012




                                                                                                                                                                             Option Implied Volatility Skew Parameters by Terms:
                                                                                               At The Money Implied Volatilities by Terms                                                                    2
                                                                                                                                                                                              IVt = atx + btx + ct
                                                                                Convenienc                                                                        Skew     Skew     Skew     Skew     Skew     Skew     Skew     Skew    Skew    Skew    Skew    Skew    Skew    Skew
                                                                                            ATM Vol - ATM Vol - ATM Vol - ATM Vol - ATM Vol - ATM Vol - ATM Vol -
                           Ticker                     Name            ATM Ref    e Yield (%                                                                        (a) -    (a) -    (a) -    (a) -    (a) -    (a) -    (a) -   (b) -   (b) -   (b) -   (b) -   (b) -   (b) -   (b) -
                                                                                              30D       60D       90D       6M        12M       18M       24M
                                                                                    p.a.)                                                                          30D      60D      90D       6M     12M      18M      24M       30D     60D     90D     6M     12M     18M     24M

                      UNG US Equity    US NATURAL GAS FUND LP          19.48                  42.32     41.79     41.70     42.00     40.91     40.90     41.85   -0.043 -0.045 -0.043 -0.034 0.017            0.019 -0.026 -0.001 -0.001 0.000          0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000
                      HNU CN Equity    HORIZONS BETA NYMEX NAT BULL    13.24                  97.88     92.26    100.43                                           -1.216 -0.472 -1.015                                           0.013   0.004   0.010
                      SLV US Equity    ISHARES SILVER TRUST            32.80                  29.82     30.45     30.78     31.74     33.77     34.69     35.31   -0.109 -0.056 -0.040 -0.066 -0.062 -0.068 -0.072 -0.005 -0.002 -0.001 -0.001 0.000                     0.000   0.000
                      HND CN Equity    HORIZONS BETA NYMEX NAT BEAR    4.53                  106.74     96.10    105.18                                           0.733    0.087    0.383                                        0.000 -0.001 0.001
                      GLD US Equity    SPDR GOLD TRUST                170.66                  15.93     17.14     17.62     19.08     21.48                       -0.013 0.046      0.048    0.025    0.022                      -0.006 -0.002 -0.002 -0.001 -0.001
                      USO US Equity    UNITED STATES OIL FUND LP       33.98                  29.83     31.75     32.14     32.78     33.00     32.72     32.43   -0.180 -0.153 -0.144 -0.135 -0.121 -0.108 -0.099 -0.005 -0.002 -0.001 -0.001 0.000                     0.000   0.000
                      HOU CN Equity    HORIZONS BETA NYMEX CRUDE BU    4.80                   60.60     65.53     66.71                                           0.299 -0.305 -0.226                                            -0.010 -0.002 -0.001
                      IAU US Equity    ISHARES GOLD TRUST              17.13                  15.51     16.72     17.45     19.10     21.70     22.93     23.50   0.091    0.079    0.064    0.024    0.031    0.019 -0.010 -0.001 -0.001 -0.002 -0.001 -0.001 0.000             0.000
                      HOD CN Equity    HORIZONS BETA NYMEX CRUDE BE    5.66                   62.40     60.75     64.85                                           -0.241 -0.017 0.010                                            -0.003 -0.002 0.000
                      ZSL US Equity    PROSHARES ULTRASHORT SILVER     41.85                  36.36     88.83    238.38     64.08     63.38                       0.549 -0.585 -2.440 -0.130 -0.432                              -0.004 0.000    0.002   0.000 -0.001
                      UCO US Equity    PROSHRE ULT DJ-UBS CRUDE OIL    30.99                  55.03     49.16     50.16     60.00     59.36     58.16     59.25   -0.237 -0.001 0.028 -0.103 -0.116 -0.098 -0.103 -0.002 -0.001 -0.001 0.000                     0.000 -0.001 0.000
                      DBA US Equity    POWERSHARES DB AGRICULTURE F    29.46                  14.02     14.68     15.26     16.85     18.52     19.57     20.55   -0.260 -0.132 -0.085 -0.026 -0.008 -0.013 -0.018 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.001 0.000                     0.000 -0.001
                      DBC US Equity    POWERSHARES DB COMMODITY IND    28.29                  15.20     16.86     17.55     18.68     19.73     19.98     19.92   -0.282 -0.278 -0.273 -0.252 -0.139 -0.144 -0.217 -0.004 -0.002 -0.002 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001
                      SCO US Equity    PROSHRE U/S DJ-UBS CRUDE OIL    41.18                  57.41     61.70     62.75     62.71     63.34     64.82     66.62   0.094    0.097    0.096    0.088    0.080    0.054    0.009 -0.002 -0.001 -0.001 0.000         0.000   0.000   0.000
                      AGQ US Equity    PROSHARES ULTRA SILVER          56.21                  58.87     60.04     60.74     63.30     66.28                       -0.061 -0.009 -0.005 -0.058 -0.044                             -0.002 -0.001 -0.001 0.000      0.000
                      GSG US Equity    ISHARES S&P GSCI COMMODITY I    33.43                  18.01     19.79     20.35     20.96                                 -0.380 -0.299 -0.260 -0.186                                    -0.002 -0.002 -0.001 -0.001
Main Commodity ETFs




                      GAS CN Equity    ISHARES NATURAL GAS COMMODIT    10.97                  54.23     50.11     50.57     49.42     49.26     49.10             -0.232 -0.066 -0.115 -0.092 -0.016 0.060                       -0.006 -0.003 0.000     0.000   0.001   0.002
                      OIL US Equity    IPATH GOLDMAN SACHS CRUDE       22.21                  30.14     32.44     33.06                                           -0.176 -0.123 -0.106                                           -0.005 -0.003 -0.002
                      RJA US Equity    ELEMENTS ROGERS AGRI TOT RET    9.63                   20.47     20.48     20.49                                           -0.169 -0.170 -0.170                                           -0.001 -0.001 -0.001
                      DJP US Equity    IPATH DOW JONES-UBS COMMDTY     43.50                  17.17     17.37     17.58     18.44                                 -0.251 -0.265 -0.277 -0.273                                    -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.001
                      DBB US Equity    POWERSHARES DB BASE METALS F    19.64                  21.19     21.81     22.33     23.79                                 0.130 -0.031 -0.073 -0.084                                     -0.003 -0.003 -0.003 -0.001
                      SIVR US Equity   ETFS PHYSICAL SILVER SHARES     33.51                  29.58     30.27     30.64                                           -0.049 -0.037 -0.038                                           -0.005 -0.002 -0.002
                      RJI US Equity    ELEMENTS ROGERS TOTAL RETURN    8.83                   16.75     16.75     16.75                                           0.000    0.000    0.000                                        0.000   0.000   0.000
                      GAZ US Equity    IPATH DJ-UBS NAT GAS SUBINDX    3.04                   38.20     41.78     44.10                                           -0.004 -0.024 -0.001                                           0.000   0.000   0.000
                      JJC US Equity    IPATH DJ-UBS COPPER SUBINDX     47.33                  23.09     23.47     24.18                                           -0.207 -0.162 -0.184                                           -0.001 -0.002 -0.002
                      GLL US Equity    PROSHARES ULTRASHORT GOLD       14.35                  32.85     33.36     34.38     37.57                                 0.122    0.002 -0.032 -0.043                                   -0.002 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001
                      DBO US Equity    POWERSHARES DB OIL FUND         25.90                  26.10     27.13     27.54     28.16                                 -0.033 -0.143 -0.166 -0.127                                    -0.008 -0.003 -0.002 -0.001
                      UGL US Equity    PROSHARES ULTRA GOLD            95.51                  32.32     33.61     34.69     37.47                                 0.039    0.023    0.019    0.017                               -0.003 -0.002 -0.001 0.000
                      USL US Equity    UNITED STATES 12 MONTH OIL      40.04                  27.30     28.00     28.42     29.60     29.22                       0.078 -0.074 -0.117 -0.142 -0.113                              -0.001 -0.002 -0.002 -0.001 0.000
                      CGL CN Equity    ISHARES GOLD BULLION FUND       15.88                  19.96     18.21     20.17                                           -0.252 -0.183 -0.200                                           -0.038 -0.021 -0.009
                      SGOL US Equity   ETFS GOLD TRUST                173.90                  15.94     16.84     17.43                                           0.070    0.058    0.044                                        -0.003 -0.002 -0.002
                      DBE US Equity    POWERSHARES DB ENERGY FUND      27.85                  24.67     24.78     24.87     25.57                                 -0.363 -0.230 -0.190 -0.148                                    0.001   0.000 -0.001 -0.001
                      BAL US Equity    IPATH DJ-UBS COTTON SUBINDX     47.93                  25.17     25.18     25.66                                           -0.072 -0.001 0.014                                            -0.003 -0.002 -0.001
                      DBP US Equity    POWERSHARES DB PREC METALS F    61.06                  16.37     16.25     16.84     19.00                                 -0.042 -0.071 -0.049 0.039                                     0.000 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001
                      RJN US Equity    ELEMENTS ROGERS ENERGY TR       6.52                   29.27     29.22     29.18                                           -0.063 -0.062 -0.061                                           0.000   0.000   0.000
                      DBS US Equity    POWERSHARES DB SILVER FUND      59.76                  30.03     30.27     30.76     32.37                                 -0.101 -0.062 -0.050 -0.039                                    -0.006 -0.003 -0.002 -0.001
                      CORN US Equity   TEUCRIUM CORN FUND              48.09                  24.18     25.44     25.77                                           0.186    0.110    0.072                                        -0.004 -0.001 0.000
                      UGA US Equity    UNITED STATES GAS FUND LP       58.14                  26.72     26.85     27.07     27.75                                 -0.213 -0.208 -0.194 -0.140                                    -0.004 -0.002 -0.001 -0.001
                      DGL US Equity    POWERSHARES DB GOLD FUND        60.60                  16.21     17.07     17.62     19.03                                 0.163    0.076    0.050    0.029                               -0.001 0.000    0.000   0.000
                      COW US Equity    IPATH DJ-UBS LIVESTOCK SUB      28.02                  17.09     17.11     17.13     18.21                                 0.038    0.045    0.053    0.014                               -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 0.000
                      UNL US Equity    UNITED STATES 12 MONTH NATUR    17.38                  24.87     24.65     24.65                                           -0.098 -0.035 -0.025                                            0.000 -0.001 0.000
                      DNO US Equity    UNITED STATES SHORT OIL FUND    38.05                  29.73     31.31     31.96                                            0.248 0.150 0.139                                             -0.002 -0.001 -0.001

                                                                                         Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
24.09.2012




                                                                                                                                                                     WTI Crude Futures Term Structures & Implied Volatilities
                                                                                    WTI Crude Oil - Forward Curve (Fair Value)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  WTI Crude Oil - Historical 12-Months Implied Volatilities
96                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   3.0%      60%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     115

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     2.0%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              110
94                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             50%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       105
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     1.0%
92
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               40%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     100
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     0.0%
90                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     95
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     -1.0% 30%
88                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     90
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     -2.0% 20%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         85
86
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     -3.0%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             80
84                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             10%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     -4.0%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             75
82                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   -5.0%     0%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      70




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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Oct-11
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Oct-11
80                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   -6.0%
                              May-13




                                                                                    May-14




                                                                                                                                       May-15




                                                                                                                                                                                              May-16




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     May-17
                                           Aug-13




                                                                                                  Aug-14




                                                                                                                                                         Aug-15




                                                                                                                                                                                                            Aug-16




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Aug-17
                  Feb-13




                                                                         Feb-14




                                                                                                                           Feb-15




                                                                                                                                                                                Feb-16




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Feb-17
     Nov-12




                                                             Nov-13




                                                                                                                Nov-14




                                                                                                                                                                     Nov-15




                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Nov-16
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  6MTH_IMPVOL_90.0%MNY_DF                                                                         6MTH_IMPVOL_100.0%MNY_DF
                           Term Structure - Slope (% p.a.)                                                                                                              GOLD 100 OZ FUTR Dec12                                                                                                                                                    6MTH_IMPVOL_110.0%MNY_DF                                                                        PX_LAST

                                                                         WTI Crude Oil - 30 Days Implied VS Historical Volatility                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      WTI Crude Oil - Implied Volatility Surface
60%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          34%
50%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         32%

40%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      30%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        28%
30%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     26%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       24%
20%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       22%

10%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    20%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    0.320-0.340




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             24MTH




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           IV 110%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    0.300-0.320




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           IV 102.5%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        12MTH
 0%




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       IV 97.5%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    0.280-0.300




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   3MTH
                                                                                                                                                                              May-12
                                                                                                                                                                                         May-12
                                                                                                                                                                                                   May-12
                                                                                                                                    Mar-12
                                                                                                                                                Mar-12




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    IV 90%
         Sep-11




                                                                         Dec-11
                                                                                  Dec-11
                                                                                             Jan-12
                                                                                                       Jan-12




                                                                                                                                                                                                              Jun-12
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Jun-12
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Jul-12
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Jul-12
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Aug-12
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Aug-12
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Sep-12
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Sep-12
                                                                                                                 Feb-12
                                                                                                                          Feb-12




                                                                                                                                                            Apr-12
                                                                                                                                                                     Apr-12
                                       Nov-11
                                                    Nov-11
                                                                Nov-11
                   Oct-11
                             Oct-11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    0.260-0.280




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   30DAY
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    0.240-0.260
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    0.220-0.240
                                                                      Historical Volatility (30 Days)                                                       30DAY_IMPVOL_100.0%MNY_DF                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               0.200-0.220




                                                                                                                                                                                                       Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
Commodities - Futures Curves and Implied Volatility Surfaces - Futures and ETFs
Commodities - Futures Curves and Implied Volatility Surfaces - Futures and ETFs
Commodities - Futures Curves and Implied Volatility Surfaces - Futures and ETFs
Commodities - Futures Curves and Implied Volatility Surfaces - Futures and ETFs
Commodities - Futures Curves and Implied Volatility Surfaces - Futures and ETFs
Commodities - Futures Curves and Implied Volatility Surfaces - Futures and ETFs
Commodities - Futures Curves and Implied Volatility Surfaces - Futures and ETFs
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Commodities - Futures Curves and Implied Volatility Surfaces - Futures and ETFs

  • 1. 24.09.2012 Option Implied Volatility Skew Parameters by Terms: At The Money Implied Volatilities by Terms IVt = atx + btx2 + ct Convenienc Skew Skew Skew Skew Skew Skew Skew Skew Skew Skew Skew Skew Skew Skew ATM Vol - ATM Vol - ATM Vol - ATM Vol - ATM Vol - ATM Vol - ATM Vol - Ticker Name ATM Ref e Yield (% (a) - (a) - (a) - (a) - (a) - (a) - (a) - (b) - (b) - (b) - (b) - (b) - (b) - (b) - 30D 60D 90D 6M 12M 18M 24M p.a.) 30D 60D 90D 6M 12M 18M 24M 30D 60D 90D 6M 12M 18M 24M RSA Comdty CANOLA FUTR (WCE) Nov12 608.90 16.05 16.13 15.71 16.24 16.93 0.116 -0.041 0.157 0.076 0.021 -0.004 -0.002 -0.001 -0.001 0.000 CCA Comdty COCOA FUTURE Dec12 2469.00 29.34 30.19 30.01 28.93 28.91 0.086 0.035 0.037 0.036 0.072 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 KCA Comdty COFFEE 'C' FUTURE Dec12 169.30 31.67 31.18 30.11 29.38 28.91 28.42 0.046 0.093 0.096 0.064 0.010 -0.028 -0.003 -0.001 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 C A Comdty CORN FUTURE Dec12 744.50 26.02 26.02 26.06 26.06 24.67 22.75 22.24 0.160 0.160 0.162 0.136 0.035 0.011 0.021 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 CTA Comdty COTTON NO.2 FUTR Dec12 72.92 28.21 27.92 27.57 26.09 23.27 21.86 20.34 -0.045 -0.033 -0.025 -0.009 -0.026 -0.048 -0.050 -0.002 -0.001 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Agriculture JOA Comdty FCOJ-A FUTURE Nov12 120.55 48.07 39.70 42.17 40.27 36.54 32.19 29.14 0.090 0.034 -0.068 -0.011 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 LBA Comdty LUMBER FUTURE Nov12 278.00 27.97 23.87 19.89 16.08 -0.047 -0.047 -0.011 -0.005 -0.005 -0.003 -0.003 -0.002 O A Comdty OAT FUTURE Dec12 370.25 26.44 26.44 25.54 23.40 23.40 0.159 0.159 0.165 0.180 0.180 -0.001 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 RRA Comdty ROUGH RICE (CBOT) Nov12 15.24 17.55 16.89 16.11 17.69 0.209 0.183 0.150 0.000 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 0.000 S A Comdty SOYBEAN FUTURE Nov12 1604.00 24.38 23.96 23.45 23.26 22.63 0.125 0.153 0.188 0.176 0.078 -0.001 -0.001 -0.002 -0.001 0.000 SMA Comdty SOYBEAN MEAL FUTR Dec12 483.20 26.02 26.03 24.29 23.91 22.88 0.188 0.187 0.150 0.133 0.073 -0.002 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 BOA Comdty SOYBEAN OIL FUTR Dec12 53.75 20.36 19.96 19.48 20.34 19.02 0.194 0.171 0.144 0.135 0.000 -0.002 -0.002 -0.001 0.000 0.000 SBA Comdty SUGAR #11 (WORLD) Mar13 20.28 25.21 25.52 25.37 24.95 22.11 21.28 20.74 0.071 0.051 0.045 0.007 0.006 0.000 -0.013 -0.003 -0.003 0.000 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 W A Comdty WHEAT FUTURE(CBT) Dec12 891.00 30.63 29.57 29.25 28.32 26.77 0.188 0.194 0.184 0.135 0.042 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 KWA Comdty WHEAT FUTURE(KCB) Dec12 918.00 23.89 29.22 29.50 28.00 -0.931 0.032 0.115 0.012 -0.007 -0.001 0.000 0.000 FCA Comdty CATTLE FEEDER FUT Nov12 148.70 8.68 10.32 10.70 -0.158 -0.180 -0.173 -0.007 -0.005 -0.003 stock Live LHA Comdty LEAN HOGS FUTURE Dec12 74.98 18.41 19.15 19.85 19.11 16.38 0.010 -0.032 -0.070 -0.076 -0.107 -0.003 -0.002 -0.001 0.000 0.000 LCA Comdty LIVE CATTLE FUTR Dec12 128.48 11.14 11.58 11.55 11.13 11.04 -0.152 -0.215 -0.214 -0.178 -0.122 -0.005 -0.002 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 CLA Comdty WTI CRUDE FUTURE Nov12 91.83 29.71 31.59 32.07 32.00 29.47 27.01 24.99 -0.183 -0.150 -0.148 -0.134 -0.003 -0.081 -0.074 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 COA Comdty BRENT CRUDE FUTR Nov12 109.93 28.88 29.92 30.75 30.99 29.40 27.28 25.33 -0.130 -0.129 -0.171 -0.149 -0.184 -0.099 -0.078 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.001 0.000 0.000 Energy XBA Comdty G A S O L I N E R B O B F U T O c t 1 2 292.66 29.90 31.73 30.87 28.29 28.02 28.02 28.02 -0.028 -0.015 -0.003 -0.005 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 HOA Comdty HEATING OIL FUTR Oct12 310.01 24.91 26.03 26.40 26.28 26.39 26.39 26.39 -0.027 -0.022 -0.026 -0.010 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 QSA Comdty GAS OIL FUT (ICE) Nov12 964.50 24.63 24.54 25.71 26.43 25.35 22.89 21.14 -0.247 -0.189 -0.141 -0.072 -0.023 -0.050 -0.028 -0.001 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 NGA Comdty NATURAL GAS FUTR Oct12 2.83 43.99 39.63 36.70 33.75 32.59 26.68 25.24 -0.178 -0.063 -0.025 -0.029 -0.028 0.000 0.001 -0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Precious GCA Comdty GOLD 100 OZ FUTR Dec12 1764.20 15.76 16.48 17.15 18.86 21.31 22.31 22.82 0.034 0.033 0.013 0.005 0.003 0.006 0.007 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Metals SIA Comdty SILVER FUTURE Dec12 34.02 28.56 29.39 30.00 30.98 32.69 33.16 33.51 -0.113 -0.027 -0.010 -0.054 -0.023 -0.004 -0.003 -0.004 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 PLA Comdty PLATINUM FUTURE Oct12 1615.10 23.67 23.57 23.76 24.07 0.020 0.006 0.039 0.024 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 0.000 PAA Comdty PALLADIUM FUTURE Dec12 639.50 23.03 23.65 24.06 24.91 0.102 0.010 0.005 0.000 -0.002 -0.002 -0.001 0.000 LAA Comdty LME PRI ALUM FUTR Oct12 2099.50 19.35 19.35 19.35 19.35 19.35 19.35 19.35 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Industrial Metals LPA Comdty LME COPPER FUTURE Oct12 8282.00 23.19 24.25 24.94 24.94 24.94 24.94 24.94 0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 LLA Comdty LME LEAD FUTURE Oct12 2285.75 27.40 27.40 27.40 27.40 27.40 -0.011 -0.011 -0.011 -0.011 -0.011 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 LNA Comdty LME NICKEL FUTURE Oct12 18149.00 26.19 27.58 28.16 29.91 31.40 31.40 31.40 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 LXA Comdty LME ZINC FUTURE Oct12 2096.75 27.33 27.33 27.33 27.09 28.01 28.01 28.01 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  • 2. 24.09.2012 Option Implied Volatility Skew Parameters by Terms: At The Money Implied Volatilities by Terms 2 IVt = atx + btx + ct Convenienc Skew Skew Skew Skew Skew Skew Skew Skew Skew Skew Skew Skew Skew Skew ATM Vol - ATM Vol - ATM Vol - ATM Vol - ATM Vol - ATM Vol - ATM Vol - Ticker Name ATM Ref e Yield (% (a) - (a) - (a) - (a) - (a) - (a) - (a) - (b) - (b) - (b) - (b) - (b) - (b) - (b) - 30D 60D 90D 6M 12M 18M 24M p.a.) 30D 60D 90D 6M 12M 18M 24M 30D 60D 90D 6M 12M 18M 24M UNG US Equity US NATURAL GAS FUND LP 19.48 42.32 41.79 41.70 42.00 40.91 40.90 41.85 -0.043 -0.045 -0.043 -0.034 0.017 0.019 -0.026 -0.001 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 HNU CN Equity HORIZONS BETA NYMEX NAT BULL 13.24 97.88 92.26 100.43 -1.216 -0.472 -1.015 0.013 0.004 0.010 SLV US Equity ISHARES SILVER TRUST 32.80 29.82 30.45 30.78 31.74 33.77 34.69 35.31 -0.109 -0.056 -0.040 -0.066 -0.062 -0.068 -0.072 -0.005 -0.002 -0.001 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 HND CN Equity HORIZONS BETA NYMEX NAT BEAR 4.53 106.74 96.10 105.18 0.733 0.087 0.383 0.000 -0.001 0.001 GLD US Equity SPDR GOLD TRUST 170.66 15.93 17.14 17.62 19.08 21.48 -0.013 0.046 0.048 0.025 0.022 -0.006 -0.002 -0.002 -0.001 -0.001 USO US Equity UNITED STATES OIL FUND LP 33.98 29.83 31.75 32.14 32.78 33.00 32.72 32.43 -0.180 -0.153 -0.144 -0.135 -0.121 -0.108 -0.099 -0.005 -0.002 -0.001 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 HOU CN Equity HORIZONS BETA NYMEX CRUDE BU 4.80 60.60 65.53 66.71 0.299 -0.305 -0.226 -0.010 -0.002 -0.001 IAU US Equity ISHARES GOLD TRUST 17.13 15.51 16.72 17.45 19.10 21.70 22.93 23.50 0.091 0.079 0.064 0.024 0.031 0.019 -0.010 -0.001 -0.001 -0.002 -0.001 -0.001 0.000 0.000 HOD CN Equity HORIZONS BETA NYMEX CRUDE BE 5.66 62.40 60.75 64.85 -0.241 -0.017 0.010 -0.003 -0.002 0.000 ZSL US Equity PROSHARES ULTRASHORT SILVER 41.85 36.36 88.83 238.38 64.08 63.38 0.549 -0.585 -2.440 -0.130 -0.432 -0.004 0.000 0.002 0.000 -0.001 UCO US Equity PROSHRE ULT DJ-UBS CRUDE OIL 30.99 55.03 49.16 50.16 60.00 59.36 58.16 59.25 -0.237 -0.001 0.028 -0.103 -0.116 -0.098 -0.103 -0.002 -0.001 -0.001 0.000 0.000 -0.001 0.000 DBA US Equity POWERSHARES DB AGRICULTURE F 29.46 14.02 14.68 15.26 16.85 18.52 19.57 20.55 -0.260 -0.132 -0.085 -0.026 -0.008 -0.013 -0.018 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.001 0.000 0.000 -0.001 DBC US Equity POWERSHARES DB COMMODITY IND 28.29 15.20 16.86 17.55 18.68 19.73 19.98 19.92 -0.282 -0.278 -0.273 -0.252 -0.139 -0.144 -0.217 -0.004 -0.002 -0.002 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 SCO US Equity PROSHRE U/S DJ-UBS CRUDE OIL 41.18 57.41 61.70 62.75 62.71 63.34 64.82 66.62 0.094 0.097 0.096 0.088 0.080 0.054 0.009 -0.002 -0.001 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 AGQ US Equity PROSHARES ULTRA SILVER 56.21 58.87 60.04 60.74 63.30 66.28 -0.061 -0.009 -0.005 -0.058 -0.044 -0.002 -0.001 -0.001 0.000 0.000 GSG US Equity ISHARES S&P GSCI COMMODITY I 33.43 18.01 19.79 20.35 20.96 -0.380 -0.299 -0.260 -0.186 -0.002 -0.002 -0.001 -0.001 Main Commodity ETFs GAS CN Equity ISHARES NATURAL GAS COMMODIT 10.97 54.23 50.11 50.57 49.42 49.26 49.10 -0.232 -0.066 -0.115 -0.092 -0.016 0.060 -0.006 -0.003 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.002 OIL US Equity IPATH GOLDMAN SACHS CRUDE 22.21 30.14 32.44 33.06 -0.176 -0.123 -0.106 -0.005 -0.003 -0.002 RJA US Equity ELEMENTS ROGERS AGRI TOT RET 9.63 20.47 20.48 20.49 -0.169 -0.170 -0.170 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 DJP US Equity IPATH DOW JONES-UBS COMMDTY 43.50 17.17 17.37 17.58 18.44 -0.251 -0.265 -0.277 -0.273 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.001 DBB US Equity POWERSHARES DB BASE METALS F 19.64 21.19 21.81 22.33 23.79 0.130 -0.031 -0.073 -0.084 -0.003 -0.003 -0.003 -0.001 SIVR US Equity ETFS PHYSICAL SILVER SHARES 33.51 29.58 30.27 30.64 -0.049 -0.037 -0.038 -0.005 -0.002 -0.002 RJI US Equity ELEMENTS ROGERS TOTAL RETURN 8.83 16.75 16.75 16.75 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 GAZ US Equity IPATH DJ-UBS NAT GAS SUBINDX 3.04 38.20 41.78 44.10 -0.004 -0.024 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 JJC US Equity IPATH DJ-UBS COPPER SUBINDX 47.33 23.09 23.47 24.18 -0.207 -0.162 -0.184 -0.001 -0.002 -0.002 GLL US Equity PROSHARES ULTRASHORT GOLD 14.35 32.85 33.36 34.38 37.57 0.122 0.002 -0.032 -0.043 -0.002 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 DBO US Equity POWERSHARES DB OIL FUND 25.90 26.10 27.13 27.54 28.16 -0.033 -0.143 -0.166 -0.127 -0.008 -0.003 -0.002 -0.001 UGL US Equity PROSHARES ULTRA GOLD 95.51 32.32 33.61 34.69 37.47 0.039 0.023 0.019 0.017 -0.003 -0.002 -0.001 0.000 USL US Equity UNITED STATES 12 MONTH OIL 40.04 27.30 28.00 28.42 29.60 29.22 0.078 -0.074 -0.117 -0.142 -0.113 -0.001 -0.002 -0.002 -0.001 0.000 CGL CN Equity ISHARES GOLD BULLION FUND 15.88 19.96 18.21 20.17 -0.252 -0.183 -0.200 -0.038 -0.021 -0.009 SGOL US Equity ETFS GOLD TRUST 173.90 15.94 16.84 17.43 0.070 0.058 0.044 -0.003 -0.002 -0.002 DBE US Equity POWERSHARES DB ENERGY FUND 27.85 24.67 24.78 24.87 25.57 -0.363 -0.230 -0.190 -0.148 0.001 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 BAL US Equity IPATH DJ-UBS COTTON SUBINDX 47.93 25.17 25.18 25.66 -0.072 -0.001 0.014 -0.003 -0.002 -0.001 DBP US Equity POWERSHARES DB PREC METALS F 61.06 16.37 16.25 16.84 19.00 -0.042 -0.071 -0.049 0.039 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 RJN US Equity ELEMENTS ROGERS ENERGY TR 6.52 29.27 29.22 29.18 -0.063 -0.062 -0.061 0.000 0.000 0.000 DBS US Equity POWERSHARES DB SILVER FUND 59.76 30.03 30.27 30.76 32.37 -0.101 -0.062 -0.050 -0.039 -0.006 -0.003 -0.002 -0.001 CORN US Equity TEUCRIUM CORN FUND 48.09 24.18 25.44 25.77 0.186 0.110 0.072 -0.004 -0.001 0.000 UGA US Equity UNITED STATES GAS FUND LP 58.14 26.72 26.85 27.07 27.75 -0.213 -0.208 -0.194 -0.140 -0.004 -0.002 -0.001 -0.001 DGL US Equity POWERSHARES DB GOLD FUND 60.60 16.21 17.07 17.62 19.03 0.163 0.076 0.050 0.029 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 COW US Equity IPATH DJ-UBS LIVESTOCK SUB 28.02 17.09 17.11 17.13 18.21 0.038 0.045 0.053 0.014 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 0.000 UNL US Equity UNITED STATES 12 MONTH NATUR 17.38 24.87 24.65 24.65 -0.098 -0.035 -0.025 0.000 -0.001 0.000 DNO US Equity UNITED STATES SHORT OIL FUND 38.05 29.73 31.31 31.96 0.248 0.150 0.139 -0.002 -0.001 -0.001 Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  • 3. 24.09.2012 WTI Crude Futures Term Structures & Implied Volatilities WTI Crude Oil - Forward Curve (Fair Value) WTI Crude Oil - Historical 12-Months Implied Volatilities 96 3.0% 60% 115 2.0% 110 94 50% 105 1.0% 92 40% 100 0.0% 90 95 -1.0% 30% 88 90 -2.0% 20% 85 86 -3.0% 80 84 10% -4.0% 75 82 -5.0% 0% 70 May-12 May-12 May-12 Mar-12 Mar-12 Sep-11 Dec-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Jan-12 Jun-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Sep-12 Feb-12 Feb-12 Apr-12 Apr-12 Nov-11 Nov-11 Nov-11 Oct-11 Oct-11 80 -6.0% May-13 May-14 May-15 May-16 May-17 Aug-13 Aug-14 Aug-15 Aug-16 Aug-17 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15 Feb-16 Feb-17 Nov-12 Nov-13 Nov-14 Nov-15 Nov-16 6MTH_IMPVOL_90.0%MNY_DF 6MTH_IMPVOL_100.0%MNY_DF Term Structure - Slope (% p.a.) GOLD 100 OZ FUTR Dec12 6MTH_IMPVOL_110.0%MNY_DF PX_LAST WTI Crude Oil - 30 Days Implied VS Historical Volatility WTI Crude Oil - Implied Volatility Surface 60% 34% 50% 32% 40% 30% 28% 30% 26% 24% 20% 22% 10% 20% 0.320-0.340 24MTH IV 110% 0.300-0.320 IV 102.5% 12MTH 0% IV 97.5% 0.280-0.300 3MTH May-12 May-12 May-12 Mar-12 Mar-12 IV 90% Sep-11 Dec-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Jan-12 Jun-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Sep-12 Feb-12 Feb-12 Apr-12 Apr-12 Nov-11 Nov-11 Nov-11 Oct-11 Oct-11 0.260-0.280 30DAY 0.240-0.260 0.220-0.240 Historical Volatility (30 Days) 30DAY_IMPVOL_100.0%MNY_DF 0.200-0.220 Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |