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  1. 1. Peri-urban Land use changes in the Lagos Megacity M Phil Candidate : Samuel Dekolo (109054012) Supervisors: Prof. Leke Oduwaye Dr. I. I. C. Nwokoro
  2. 2. 1) Introduction and Background to the Study 2) Literature Review 3) Theoretical Framework 4) Conceptual Framework 5) Methodology 6) Conclusion
  3. 3. INTRODUCTION Background to the Study
  4. 4. Background to the Study • The global trend of urbanisation has led to the formation of large urban agglomerations with a population of 10 million or more known as megacities. • Megacities are characterized by sprawling developments, which brings rapid change to land cover and land uses in peri-urban areas. • Sprawling growth tends to correlates with poor housing, poverty, insecure land tenure, informality and slum development, unsustainable land use and environmental degradation in most African cities.
  5. 5. Background… • Land use and land cover changes due to urban expansion have serious ecological repercussions and pose a great deal of challenge to environmental sustainability at local and global scales. It is a major driving force of global environmental change, which affects the earth systems. • Prevailing global changes linked to deforestation, desertification, biodiversity loss, food insecurity, climate change, carbon emission etc, are consequences of unsustainable use of land or unsustainable practices.
  6. 6. Global Significance • Global Land Surveys estimates the total world’s forests in 2005 at 3.8 billion hectares i.e. 30% of the global land area. However, recorded a decrease of 1.7% between 1990 and 2005 at 0.11% P.A (FAO, 2012). • Africa had the 2nd highest forest loss with 1.6 million ha annually and Nigeria had the largest rate of forest loss in 2005 (FAO, 2005). • The Millennium Ecosystems Assessment shows the magnitude of the loss of land cover due to land use change has resulted in the loss of ecosystems services from the global to local scales.
  7. 7. Millenium Ecosystems Assessment (MEA) The Millenium Assessment Report proved that global challenges are offshoots of regional and local land use change dynamics and human choice » (Powleegde, 2006).
  8. 8. Global to Local Initiatives GLOBAL RESEARCH PROJECTS • Sustainable Land Use (SuLu)Project • Global Land Project (GLP) • The GLP research has three thematic area: • Dynamics of Land Systems; Consequences of Land Systems Change; Integrating Analysis and Modelling for Sustainability • International Geosphere- Biosphere Programme (IGBP) • International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change (IHDP) • Project GIGALOPOLIS • Etc. REGIONAL RESEARCH PROJECTS • Europe • Monitoring Land Use/Cover Dynamics (MOLAND) • Peri-urban Land Use Relationships (PLUREL) • Africa • Land Use Impacts and Dynamics (LUCID)-East Africa • AFRICOVER NIGERIAN LAND USE /COVER PROJECTS • Nigeria Radar (NIRAD) 1976/77 • Land Use/Land Cover FORMECU Project 1978-1995 • ABUJA GIS PROJECT- • LRIS/lLISSU (1995) LAGIS PROJECT 2009
  9. 9. Statement of Problem • Several studies have been done globally and regionally, however, these cannot give an understanding of land use change processes at the local scale. • Existing literature shows that Land Use Change studies on the study area have focused on the spatial quantification of change without understanding their determinants. • Studies on peri-urbanization of the Lagos Megacity tend to focus on the associated problems without investigating the spatio- temporal change, and the underlying factors for such change.
  10. 10. Statement of Problem • Existing theories on peri-urban land use change are western biased and may not be able to explain the local processes in the Lagos megacity. • Previous studies on the study area have not addressed the location characteristics and role of human agents (parcel owners) in transformation of the peri-urban landscape. • There are also existing gaps in land use policy analysis in the study area; there have not been studies to examine the land management instruments and institutions.
  11. 11. Statement of Problem • In view of the gaps, there is a need for a holistic study that will contributes to the understanding of the Lagos Megacity’s peri- urban land use change and the determinants based on appropriate spatial units, which will provide an assessment of its spatial patterns, rates of change, correlation, trends and policies with the use of geospatial technologies.
  12. 12. Research Aim • The aim of this research is to investigate the pattern and extent of peri-urban land use changes in the Lagos megacity between 1976 and 2013 and their determinants through the application of spatial models.
  13. 13. Research Objectives • To assess the extent of land use changes in peri-urban areas of Lagos megacity for the study period through the application of remote sensing and GIS. • To compare the spatial and temporal variations in land use changes in the study area during the study period • To investigate the determinants of land use changes in study area. • To evaluate the roles and capacities of planning institutions in implementing existing land use planning policies and manage land use in the study area.
  14. 14. Research Questions • What are the land use and land cover changes that has taken place in peri-urban areas of the Lagos Megacity between 1976 and 2013? • What are the spatial and temporal variations in land use changes in the study area during the study period? • What are the determinants of these land use changes? • What are the institutional roles and capacities in implementing land use policies and managing land use change in the study area?
  15. 15. Study area: Lagos Megacity, Lagos State in Nigeria Lagos Megacity is a continuous built area spanning over 153,540 hectares of land comprising 18 Local Government Areas of Lagos State and four LGAs (i.e., Sagamu, Owode, Ifo and Ado-Odo/Otta) in the neighbouring Ogun State. It was ranked by United Nations (World Urbanization Prospects, 2007) as 9th among the 28 current and prospective megacities in the world with a standard of living score of 19%. The city has experienced tremendous spatial and demographic growth which has led to continuous loss of forest and agricultural land to built-up areas.
  16. 16. Definition of Terms • land use refers to the purpose or activities for which land is used. It emphasizes more on land's social properties, that is, the output of reconstruction activities that human adopts to manipulate, manage and regulate the land chronically and periodically according to determined economic and social purpose. • Land cover on the other refers to the physical and biological cover over the earth surface of land, including water, vegetation, bare soil and artificial structures. It emphasizes the natural properties, it is defined as the biophysical cover of the earth’s surface, and it is the expression of human activities and synthetically reflection of various elements in global surface covered with natural body or synthetic features. • Peri-urban is a term used in three different ways to mean a place, process and or concept. As a place-based term, it is the rural-urban fringe and transitional zone around the city characterised with intense interaction, flows and linkages between the rural and urban areas. It is the intermediary zone and geographical space where rural areas meet the urban areas. Whereas as a process it is the transition of rural to urban areas as well as the flow of goods, services and resources between the urban and the rural areas. • In terms of concept-based definition, the proximity of the zone to urban centres is less significant; it is the co-existence of both rural and urban characteristics, linkages and the flow of goods and services between them that matters
  18. 18. Selected Authors (Global) Author(s)/Year Research Theme Gaps Baptista, 2010; Briassoulis, 2000 Theoretical framework for land use change research Even though most of the findings of these studies are commendable and useful, they were tailored to land use change problem in the global north. Assessing the impact of land use change of cities on global environmental change will be incomplete without repeating such investigation in cities in the global south. Brandon, 2000; Zhang, Kang, Wang, & Sun, 2010 Applications of remote sensing and GIS in land use change detection and analysis Lambin & Ehrlich, 1997; Shariff, Gairola, & Talib, 2010; Lesschen, Verburg, & Staal, 2005 Algorithms and methodology for change detection Braimoh & Vlek, 2004; DiGregorio & Jansen, 1998 Analysis and quantification of land use and land cover change Serneels & Lambin, 2001; Olson, Misana, Campbell, Mbonile, & Mugisha, 2004 Drivers and determinants of land use change Irwin, 2003; Bell & Irwin, 2002; Briassoulis, 2000 Modeling of land use change
  19. 19. Selected Authors (Local) Author(s)/Year Theme Gaps Odumosu, 1992 Investigated the spatiotemporal changes and metropolitanisation processes of Lagos Metropolis using FA and PCA Based on manual mapping techniques which lacked accuracy in handling spatial data Ikhuoria, 1993 Investigated the land use changes in parts of Edo State with the use of aerial photographs and field survey Limited by human error associated with manual processes of change detection inherent in the use of aerial photographs Omojola, 1998 Assessment of land use and land cover change of Sokoto-Rima River basin by the use of integrated remote sensing and GIS techniques to assess the trend, rate and impact of changes in the study area for the periods of 1962, 1977 and 1986. It could not determine the factors responsible for the changes or predict scenarios. Berredo and Demicheli, 2003 Land use changes between 1984 and 2000, also simulated the future urban growth of the Lagos megacity for the year 2020 through the Cellular Automata (CA) model Study was the use of secondary data (satellite imageries) without adequate ground truthing and collection of primary data (physical and socio-economic characteristics) of the study area. The use of 100mx100m as mapping unit is too large to represent parcel level LU decisions The drivers of change were not investigated Adepoju et al, 2006 Change detection studies of Lagos for the period of 1984 to 2002 The study considered change analysis without investigating the drivers of the changes and models of future changes There are no concerns changes at peri-urban levels. Lawanson, Yadua, & Salako, 2012; Mandere, Ness, & Anderberg, 2010; Simon, McGregor, & Nsiah-Gyabaah, 2004; Dung-Gwom, 2008; Buxton & Low, 2007; Nkwae, 2006; Allen, 2003 Peri-urban characteristics and problems associated with urban growth or urbanization the spatial nature of these problems arising from land use changes in peri-urban areas were not considered. Olaleye et al (2012) Understanding the Pattern Of Urban Expansion in Greater Lagos, Nigeria From 1984 To 2006 The major gap in this work is that the authors depended on the imageries alone without any fieldwork.
  21. 21. Urban and Regional Economic Theories Urban and Regional Economics Approach Micro-Economic Theories Agricultural Land Rent Theory (von Thunen, 1966) Urban Land Market Theory (Alonso, 1964) Agent-based theories (Krugman 1996) Macro-Economic Theories Spatial Economic Equilibrium Theory (Weber, 1929; Losch, 1954) Growth Pole Theory (Perroux, 1955; Boudeville, 1966) Cumulative Causation Theory (Myrdal, 1957)
  22. 22. Micro-Economic Theories: Von Thunen’ agricultural Rent theory (1826) Alonso’s Bid Rent Theory (1964) Location Theories of Land Use Change R =f (Distance + Cost of Transport) R =f (Distance + Travel Time+ Cost + Utility)
  23. 23. Krugman’s Self Organizing Economy (1996) •Humans and Firms interact with market forces to influence land use location decision through a ‘Self Organizing’ Process •Firms or manufacturing concerns located in peri-urban areas of cities tends to attract other land use activities and leads to the formation of 'edge cities' Micro-Economic Theories: Agent-Based Theories
  24. 24. Macro-Economic Theories: Weber’s (Least Cost) Theory of Industrial Location(1929) Christaller’s Modified Central Place Theory by August Losch Modified (1954) Spatial Equilibrium Theories Industrial Location = Minimum input (transport +Labour Cost) +Agglomeration Economics Regional Welfare and Economic Balance through hierarchical spatial interactionss
  25. 25. Macro-Economic Theories: Perroux’s Growth Pole Theory (1949) Myrdal’s Cumulative Causation Theory (1957) & Friedman’s Core-Periphery Theory (1954) Spatial Disequilibrium Theories Abstract Economic Space of influence leading to polarization Spread and Backwash Effect
  26. 26. Sociological and Human Ecological Theories Sociological Approach Human Ecological Theories Concentric Zone Theory (Burges, 1925) Radial Sector Theory (Hoyt, 1939) Multiple Nuclei Theory (Harris and Ullman, 1945) Metropolitan Planning Theories Theory of Metropolitan Spatial Structure (Foley, 1964) Metropolitan Planning (Weber, 1964) Activity Systems Theory (Chapin, 1965)
  27. 27. Human ecological theories Land Use Patterns emerges from processes of Invasions and Successions
  28. 28. Planning Theories of the Metropolis Foley’s ‘Theory of Metropolitan Spatial Structure’ (1964) upheld that personalities, social and cultural values, norms shapes the city Chapin’s ‘Theory of Activity Systems’ (1974) emphasizes the role of the personalities and individual decision in spatial structuring of cities
  30. 30. The DPSIR FRAMEWORK This framework, which was developed by the European Environment Agency in 1999, with the aim of analysing the cause-effect relationships between interacting components of complex social, economic and environmental systems and the managing of information flow within its components.
  31. 31. The DPSIR FRAMEWORK The DPSIR model have been applied to diverse environmental problems in several countries including land use change studies in Europe, the US, East Africa and Ghana. The model was used in land use change studies in Europe’s Peri-urban Land Use Relationships (PLUREL) project between 2007 and 2011, the East Africa’s Land Use Change Impacts and Dynamics (LUCID) project and the assessment of land degradation in Northern Ghana.
  32. 32. OPERATIONAL SYNTHESIS OF CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK The research will be divided into four (4) major phases: 1. Analysis change in ‘State’ between Pre-plan (1976) and Post-plan (2013) periods 2. Determining the ‘Drivers’, ‘Pressures’ and ‘Impact’ though field survey 3. Developing Spatial Models to explain and predict ‘State ‘Pressures’ and ‘Impact’ 4. Evaluation of ‘Response’ by land use management instruments and policies
  33. 33. Land Use Policies • The Land Use Act of 1978 • Land Policy of the New Order (1980) • Subsidiary Legislation and Policies: • Guidelines to establish the procedure for processing an approval for private estate within Lagos. • Regulation on zoning. • Development schemes and land improvement programmes. • Regional Plan (1980 – 2000AD). • Master Plan for Lagos metropolis (1980-2000A.D) • Ground rent and development charges regulations. • Town and Country Planning Edict of 1985; Town and Country Planning (Building Plans) Regulations of 1986-2010 • Town and Country Planning (condition for development of government land by private developers) Etc.
  35. 35. Research Design • The research adopts a hybrid approach of spatial analysis of land use change and survey research methods. • Quantitative and qualitative data collection methods will be used
  36. 36. Data Sources (Primary) • Physical and environmental survey • Quantitative field surveys (using questionnaires) • Focused group discussions and qualitative interviews. • Focused groups CDAs, families and individual tenure holders, land agents, land use planners, property valuers and allied professionals.
  37. 37. Data Sources (Secondary) Acquisition Date Satellite Number Sensor Type WRS Path/Row UTM Zone Datum Spatial Resolution (M) Sources & Year 08/12/2013 Landsat 8 OLI_TIRS 191/55 31N WGS84 28.5-30 USGS, 2014 07/12/2006 Landsat 7 ETM+ 191/55 31 N WGS84 28.5-30 USGS,2011 24/12/1986 Landsat 5 MSS 191/55 31 N WGS84 28.5-30 USGS, 1986 Supporting Spatial Data/Demographic Data Feb 2002 STRM (DEM) 3-ARC USGS,2002 1993/95 Land Use/Land Cover Map FORMECU, 1995 1976/78 Land Use/Land Cover Map FORMECU, 1978 1980 Lagos Metropolitan Master Plan (1980-200) Wilbur Smith Assoc 1980 The Lagos State Regional Plan (1980-2000) Doxiadis Associates 2006 Population of Lagos State National Population Census NPC 1991 Population of Lagos State National Population Census NPC
  38. 38. Targeted population and Unit of Analysis Levels Targeted Population Data Sources Objectives Parcel -Parcel Owners /households -Field Survey -GPS -Determinants of Land Use Change Neighbourhood - Income groups (High/Medium/Low) -Tenure holders/Families -Community groups -Remote Sensed Imageries -Vector Maps -Focus Group Interviews Determinants of Land Use Change Local Government Area -Community groups -Governmental Agencies -Non-Governmental Agencies -Remote Sensed Imageries -Vector Maps -Census Data -Land Use Policies -Analysis of land use patterns/variations -Policy Analysis -Spatial Models Administrative Division -Community groups -Governmental Agencies -Non-Governmental Agencies -Remote Sensed Imageries -Vector Maps -Census Data -Land Use Policies -Analysis of land use patterns/variations -Policy Analysis -Spatial Models • : Four (4) functional levels of observation have been selected for analysis in this study
  39. 39. Specification of Variables • In order to investigating the land use change that has occurred in peri-urban areas of Lagos Megacity with the view of determining its proximate and underlying causes. • There will be the application of Ordinary Least Square (OLS) Regression and Geographically Weight Regression (GWR) in this research. • This is similar to the ‘Model of Residential Growth’ known as the North Carolina Model cited in Chapin and Kaiser (1979) • In the model above, the dependent variable (Y) is Land Use Change is the explanatory variables (X1, X2, X3…Xn) are factors responsible for change (like population growth, land use policies, land value, distance to employment, physical characteristics of site, accessibility, etc.) and regression coefficients is B, while the residual or random error term is E .
  40. 40. Specification of Variables Variables Type Unit Dependent Variable Rate of Land Use Change from Non Urban to Urban Continuous Per Annum Independent Variables Distance to major roads Continuous km Distance to place of employment Continuous km Distance to the Lagos CBD Continuous km Cost of Transportation Continuous 0-5 Environmental Suitability Categorical 0-1 Suitability for agriculture Categorical 0-1 Land value and rent Categorical 1-5 Housing Demand Categorical 1-5 Population density Continuous persons/km2 Housing density Continuous Units/km2 Employment type of house owner Categorical 1-5 Income level Categorical 1-5 Literacy levels Categorical 1-5 Socio-cultural influence Categorical 1-5 Agricultural and forestry policies Categorical 1-5 Land tenure Categorical 1-5 Land Use Policies and management practices Categorical 1-5 Land use zoning Binary 0-1
  41. 41. Sampling Frame and Sizes Geographical Frame (Lagos Megacity) Non-urban LGA (1976) Sample size (LGA) Wards Sample Wards Identified Parcels Sample Parcels Lagos State 9 6 81 42 364796 664 Ogun State 4 4 57 15 65616 119 Total 13 10 138 57 430412 783 % of Frame 77% 41% 0.2% A sample size of 783 parcels was derived for a population size of 430,412 at a 95% confidence level and a level 3.5% margin of error using Cochran (1977) formula. •Two groups of sample frames were adopted •The first group is geographical frames, which comprises of 13 local government councils in the Lagos Megacity region (Lagos and Ogun States) with less than 50% urban land use in 1976 and 138 total number of wards in these councils. The second frame is the total number of parcels identified in the study area.
  42. 42. Sampling Procedure and Techniques • The study adopts a multi-staged sampling technique. • First is a geographic area sampling, which draws samples systematically from local government councils and wards. • Secondly, Parcels or properties will be selected randomly in sampled wards and neighbourhoods (which are enumeration areas) for administering questionnaires. • Geographical coordinates (X and Y coordinates) of these parcels will be linked as points to the household data on GIS maps and imageries with the aid of a handheld GPS.
  43. 43. Methods of Data Collection and Analysis Research Questions Scope of Investigation Data Collection Methods Data Analysis Methods Phases What are the land use and land cover changes that has taken place in peri-urban areas of the Lagos Metropolitan Area between 1976 and 2013 -Land use/Land cover change analysis -Ground truthing -Satellite Imageries (LANDSAT Multi-temporal Imageries); Ikonos high level resolution Imageries -Image Processing -Change detection -accuracy assessment -Change Statistics -co-occurrence matrix Spatial statistical Phase 1 What are the spatial and temporal variations in land use changes in the study area during the study period? -Land use/Land cover change analysis -pattern of development -Land use densities distribution -Satellite Imageries -Spatial and non-spatial data -census data/maps - GIS Based Spatial Analysis -Spatial statistical analysis ANOVA Phase 1 What are the determinants of these land use changes? Field survey and investigation -Questionnaires Interview, focussed group discussions -socioeconomic survey/data -spatial data ,census data -Analysis of natural and anthropogenic driving forces -Quantitative analysis -SPSS ANOVA Phase 2/Phase 3 How effective are existing land use planning policies in managing land use change during the study period and what implication does this have for the study area? -Land Use Policy Analysis -SDI Evaluation -Structured interview -Focussed group discussion -Questionnaires Quantitative and qualitative analysis Phase 4
  44. 44. CONCLUSION
  45. 45. Expected Contribution to Knowledge • The research will contribute to understanding the spatial variations in land use change across the study area • It will combine theories and methodologies from various disciplines (earth sciences, social sciences and computer sciences) to understand the urban growth and structure of the Lagos Megacity • It will validate the applicability of existing economic and social theories of land use change • It will contribute to understanding the most important drivers of peri-urbanization in the study area. • It will contribute to developing appropriate framework for land use policy analysis in Nigeria
  46. 46. Thank You and God Bless